NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 25th October 2017

President Xi’s thoughts on socialism have got him a mention in the Communist Party Charter. So, what does that mean for the world economy over the next decade. Not an easy question to answer but Phil Dobbie puts it to NAB’s David de Garis anyway. On more immediate matters, strong earnings have added to US stocks, whilst the assumption that the Fed will raise rates and the new chair will have a more hawkish outlook, has flattened the yield curve. They discuss that, plus the continued slide in the NZ dollar and the expectation for Australia’s Q3 GDP today.

Tuesday 24th October 2017

Having seemingly narrowed down the field to just two men, President Trump told a press conference that he was “very, very close” to announcing his nominee. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland for the likely market reaction to a power share between Powell and Taylor. Plus, as the NZ government settles in for its first official working day, has the NZ dollar hit the floor, or is there more to come.

Monday 23rd October 2017

President Trump spoke on Fox Business over the weekend saying he expects his new tax plans to be passed before the end of the year, at the latest. Phil Dobbie discusses how the markets could react today with NAB’s Ray Attrill. They also discuss the narrowing race for the chair of the Federal Reserve, some nuggets from Janet Yellen on Friday night, Abe’s win at the weekend and the challenges for NZ’s new government where, for the next few years of so, every day is a Labour (Coalition)Day!

Friday 20th October 2017

30 years on from the Black Monday stock market crash, equity markets were a little jittery. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Taps Strickland, a warning from the People’s Bank of China over debt fuelled asset bubbles might not have helped. They also look at the market reaction to New Zealand’s new government, Spain’s stance on Catalonia and the UK’s poor retail sales.

Thursday 19th October 2017

What can we draw from President Xi’s three hour address to the 19th National Party Congress in China? That’s a question Phil Dobbie puts to NAB’s Ray Attrill in this morning’s podcast. They also look at the implications of Catalonia’s deadline today, Winston Peters' decision on the NZ government, jobs data from Australia and the UK; and a warning from US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin on the repercussions if his tax package was to fail.

Wednesday 18th October 2017

The US dollar and bond rates were buoyed yesterday by rumours that John Taylor is the President’s favourite pick for chair of the Federal Reserve. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether this could mean a steeper path of rate rises? They also look at UK inflation, now at 3 percent, and Mark Carney’s testimony to the UK’s Treasury select committee. Just how quickly will they lift rates – and will we hear more tonight about the ECB’s plans to ease off on QE? Plus, President Xi’s opening speech at the 19th Communist Party Congress today, and important data from NAB on Aussie retail sales and commercial property out today.

Tuesday 17th October 2017

This morning we get a taste of how the RBA sees the state of the Australian economy although, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, there’s been a lot of mixed news since their last meeting. They also look at how unrest around Kirkuk has hit oil supplies, how speculation mounts around NAFTA and whether the British PM will be able to get Brexit talks on track. And still no word on who will form the next New Zealand government.

Monday 16th October 2017

US CPI figures were a little lower than expected on Friday night, but Fed Chair Janet Yellen said yesterday she still expected it to pick up, calling the delay in inflation growth a “big surprise”. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what this surprise means for rate hike expectations now. And could Trump see his budget passed through the Senate this week and what will it mean for the US dollar (and the Aussie dollar) if he does or, more importantly perhaps, if he doesn’t?

Friday 13th October 2017

The pound was hit hard when Michelle Barnier said Brexit talks were in deadlock overnight, but bounced back. Phil Dobbie discusses why with NAB’s David de Garis. They also look ahead to tonight’s US inflation figures and what central bankers have been saying at a conference in Washington overnight. Also, the impact of continued foreign investment in the Australian housing market and what to expect from the RBA Financial Stability Review today.

Thursday 12th October 2017

Few surprises in the US Fed’s FOMC minutes released this morning. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains to Phil Dobbie, it was another case of being “informed by incoming data” – in other words, do they wait for inflation to kick in. Meanwhile, in Europe Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy has issued an ultimatum to the Catalonian President – a move which seems to have helped the Euro and Spanish equities. Closer to home we see Australia’s inflation expectations today and New Zealand still waits for resolution of their new government.