NAB Morning Call

All it takes is 24 hours without incendiary tweets about North Korea and the markets retreat from their safe havens. Maybe they’ll be back again tomorrow. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains to Phil Dobbie, we can expect to see the framework for President Trump’s tax reforms soon, just as the Obamacare repeal bill is ditched. Meanwhile Janet Yellen, who said last week that it’s a mystery where inflation has gone, hinted that the Fed shouldn’t wait for it. And Donald Tusk told Theresa May that there hadn’t been enough progress to start talking about trade agreements.

Tuesday 26th September 2017

As markets adjust to the surprising result in the German election, Monday threw new geopolitical news into the fray. Phil Dobbie talks with NAB’s Tapas Strickland about the Kurdistan elections, Japan’s stimulus and snap election, and the latest sentiment from the US Fed and the ECB. Oh, and North Korea thinks they’re at war. Actually, technically they never signed a peace treaty so they have been at war since 1950.

25th September 2017

The New Zealand and German elections produced inconclusive results over the weekend. Neither country is a stranger to coalition governments, but we’re not precisely sure the composition of either just yet. Add to that the inconclusive nature of Theresa May’s Brexit speech and the continued unrest between the US and North Korea. Does that mean we can expect more uncertainty in the markets at the start of the week. It’s a question Phil Dobbie puts to NAB’s Ray Attrill in this morning’s Morning Call podcast.

22nd September 2017

Philip Lowe’s comments last night hit the Aussie dollar hard, and seems to have taken the Kiwi dollar with it. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what the RBA Govenor said to prompt such a sharp reaction. Meanwhile, the day 2 response to the US Fed meeting yesterday has been fairly muted. New Zealand and Germany prepare for elections this weekend, and Theresa May will have to impress in her address to the EU if she is to see Brexit negotiations progress.

Thursday 21st September

Today the US Federal reserve provided the confirmation the markets had been waiting for – they will start winding back their quantitative easing program from next month. Phil Dobbie and NAB’s David de Garis discuss what was said in the press conference that followed the announcement and how the market has reacted. Plus a rise in oil prices, a UK rate rise now looking more certain and the progress of the New Zealand economy.

Wednesday 20th September 2017

President Trump’s threat to destroy North Korea if provoked left the UN nonplussed and the markets similarly disinterested. Instead, the real jockeying is ahead of tomorrow morning’s FOMC rate announcement and the associated speculation – when will rates rise, how often and what’s the program for reversing quantitative easing. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about what will influence the markets today and why the Aussie and Kiwi dollars and doing so well.

Tuesday 19th September 2017

There’s a resurging risk-on mood ahead of the FOMC meeting this week. But, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill, we have to get through President Trump’s address to the UN before that. Meanwhile, the pound has taken a hit as Mark Carney warns that Brexit uncertainty could slow down changes to the BoE’s monetary approach. Plus, what of the RBA minutes today? And what has the Bank of Canada said to drive their dollar lower?

Monday 18th September 2017

Kim Jong Un is losing his influence it seems, with the markets little moved by his latest missile demonstration. As NAB’s David de Garis discusses with Phil Dobbie the markets were more influenced by US’s disappointing retail sales, and the impact of Quadruple Witching, when options and futures for stocks and indices all expire on the same day. There was more significant action in Europe, with the UK heading for a rate rise whilst some in Europe question the need to ease off on the stimulus lever.

Friday 15th September 2017

After a decade could the UK be about to see a lift in interest rates – in “coming months” is the phrase they used by the Bank of England. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about how quickly we can expect it to happen and, with strong CPI data overnight, could the US possibly beat them to it. Meanwhile the US dollar has been held back by more fighting talk from the Supreme Leader, the shine was taken off the Aussie dollar by weaker than anticipated activity indicators from China. Listen in as Phil and David talk through what’s influencing the markets this morning.

Thursday 14th September 2017

The US dollar gained ground overnight with talk of a renewed attempt to see through tax reforms. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether the markets are being overly optimistic. They also look at the UK unemployment rate – now at a 42-year low – whilst real wages continue to fall. Then there’s Jean Claude Juncker’s state of union address in which he described Europe as the bastion of stability. And employment data for Australia – could jobs growth bring forward our expectation of an Aussie rate hike?