Friday March 10th, 2017

Mario Draghi, the President of the ECB seems to be talking down the need to do more to boost inflation, and his optimism has had some impact on the markets overnight. The NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil Dobbie to dissect his comments and whether the pound could hit new lows with a swag of output data due today. Plus, of course, US non-farm payrolls tonight.

Thursday March 9th, 2017

ADP jobs data shows US private sector jobs surged by 298,000 in February, well above estimates and paving the way for another surprise with non-farm payrolls on Friday. In today’s podcast Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this effectively seals the deal for a US rate hike next week. We also look at why the Aussie dollar is one of the worst performing of the major currencies this morning, and why there’s been a 3 percent drop in oil prices.

Wednesday March 8th, 2017

Talk about a quiet night! There’s been very little movement on currencies, equities or commodities. Perhaps because there was no surprise in data or the news cycle. As expected, the US trade deficit widened and expectations of a March rate rise increased slightly. In Europe fears of far-right wins in Holland and France seem to be on the wane. And even though China’s forex surplus has unexpectedly grown, NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains to Phil Dobbie it’ll only be significant if it is repeated next month. Otherwise, not much happened overnight. You could have had a lie-in!

Tuesday 7th March 2017

Even as North Korea fires missiles into the Sea of Japan the markets still see the Yen as a safe-haven, keeping up with the rise in the US dollar overnight. Most other major currencies failed to keep pace. But uncertainty is playing a little on equity markets, with most down overnight. As Rodrigo Catril explains to Phil Dobbie, the most significant data today is the US balance of trade – whatever the result, we can be certain President Trump will not be best pleased. We also discuss the PSA acquisition of GM’s European operations – good news or bad for a post-Brexit Britain? And what will the RBA say today when they announce their expected hold on interest rates?

Monday March 6th, 2017

At the National People’s Congress in Beijing yesterday, Premier Li Keqiang predicted 6.5% growth in the Chinese economy this year and spoke of a return to ‘blue skies’ over China’s cities. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what this could mean for Australia’s steel and coal exports. We also look at the rising rate hike expectation in the US and whether the emerging wire-tapping allegations could have any impact. Plus today’s retail sales figures for Australia – do we expect to recover from December’s slip?

US equities fell today on the realisation that a Fed rate hike this month seems more likely than not. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains to Phil Dobbie, a big drop in weekly jobless claims was a strong forward indicator of the strength of the US economy, to such an extent that it would take a disastrous set of non-farm payrolls to change the expectation.

Meanwhile an investigation into Attorney General Jeff Sessions seems to have had little impact on the markets. And Theresa May is reported to have set May 15th as the day she will invoke Article 50. We also look at the fall in the Aussie dollar after yesterday’s lower than expected trade surplus.

Thursday March 2nd, 2017

There wasn’t a strong reaction to Donald Trump’s speech to the Congress yesterday. Instead the market moved on hawkish talk from Bill Dudley, vice chair of the OMC, who gave hints that a rate hike on March 15 could be on the cards. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill why the strongest response came from equities with the US dollar making only modest gains. We also look at mixed news from Europe and the expectations for Australia’s trade balance figures today.

Wednesday 1st March, 2017

The US dollar and equities were slightly lower overnight as the nation – and the world – awaits President Trump’s appearance at a joint session of Congress later today. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether he will say anything new. The slight downturn in markets presumably suggests not. Meanwhile there was mixed US data overnight, yet a rising expectation of a March rate hike. Today’s PCE deflator figures will be important to watch for more clues on that. And Australia’s GDP figures are released this morning. Does the NAB still expect 0.9% growth in the last quarter?

Tuesday 28th February, 2017

Even though we’d suggested President Trump will say very little new during his joint address to Congress, it seems nothing could be further from the truth. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s David De Garis, the President has hinted at announcements on the Obamacare replacement, a big hike in military spending and, presumably, a way to cut other areas of government expenditure whilst increasing investment in infrastructure. Not such a quiet affair, after all.

Meanwhile the pound suffered a little on reports that Theresa May was preparing for another Scottish referendum, but no surprise there. We also look at Aussie indicators out today, ahead of positive GDP figures expected tomorrow.

Monday 27th February 2017

US Treasury yields have been in a holding pattern this year (between 2.3 – 2.6% on 10 years) as the markets await more detail on Trump’s stimulus program. As Phil Dobbie discusses with Ray Attrill, NAB’s Head of FX Strategy, it's unlikely any more will come from Trump’s appearance before Congress this week and Steven Mnuchin’s press appearances last week certainly seem to have knocked the wind out of the market’s sails. We also look ahead to Australia’s GDP figures this week, which the NAB is forecasting will be slightly higher than market expectations.