NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 13th September

The markets moved further into risk-on territory again, as they get back to economic fundamentals instead of geopolitical concerns. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this means we’re back to speculating on a US rate rise for December. President Trump is also back onto promoting tax reform, even preparing to back date it if he gets it through. Meanwhile the UK has seen higher than expected inflation and the Repeal Bill, the first bit of Brexit legislation, made it through the Commons. Whilst Australia has seen a surprising dip in business confidence. Listen in for the background on all these stories, plus the goss on the new iPhone.

Tuesday 12 September 2017

It’s been a day where the markets have been defined mostly by what didn’t happen. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Tapas Strickland, Hurricane Irma didn’t cause as much damage as was feared, Kim Jong Un didn’t fire a missile and President Trump didn’t tweet anything provocative. It’s seen a return to risk sentiment, helped by Texas on the road to recovery, with refineries reopening and helping to boost the oil price. But in the background, how will the Supreme Leader react to a UN Security Council resolution today and what of Britain’s Great Repeal vote and CPI figures today? They also look ahead to the Norwegian general election and NAB’s Business Survey out today.

Monday 11th September 2017

Hurricane Irma is moving slowly along the coast of Florida, with heavy rain and storm surges likely to add to America’s mounting repair bill. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether this has obliterated any chance of a US rate rise this year. They also discuss the continuing slide in the US dollar, the impact it is having on the Aussie, the Reuters reports that the ECB is set to ease their monetary stimulus from the beginning of 2018, and the big Repeal Bill being voted on in the UK’s House of Commons tonight.

Friday 8th September 2017

President Trump's decision to seek support from the Democrats on the extension of the debt ceiling has infuriated many Republicans. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland if this will further hinder the President’s chances of implementing any kind of reform. Meanwhile the ECB has decided not to make any decision on quantitative easing – other than pushing the decision back to the next meeting. Meanwhile Hurricane Irma wreaks havoc through the Caribbean and, probably Florida, whilst North Korea could well be launching another missile this weekend. That, and much more, on The Morning Call.

Thursday September 7th, 2017

This morning Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about an eventful night ahead of a busy day. The US Congress looks likely to kick the debt ceiling can down the road till December and Stanley Fischer, vice chair of the Fed, has handed in his notice. Meanwhile, the big question of the day – what exactly will the ECB say tonight? To taper or not, that is the question. All that, plus Australia’s trade balance and retail figures today … a packed edition of the Morning Call from NAB.

Wednesday 6th September 2017

For the moment, locally at least, data and central bank minutes might have more influence on the markets than North Korea. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the statement from the RBA yesterday, and comments from Philip Lowe last night. They also look ahead to today’s Aussie GDP figures. Meanwhile, whilst commodity prices recover from Hurricane Harvey what impact could Irma have on the US economy? And, yes, there is the standoff over North Korea. Listen in for a heads-up on all that’s influencing the markets today.

5th September 2017

The markets have reacted again to the increasing tension over North Korea, but not in an extreme fashion. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether the response has been tapered by the reality that any military action would be devastating and much of what has been said are empty words. They also look at how the so-called Henry VIII powers in the UK’s EU withdrawal bill will present a challenge for Theresa May, and they look ahead to the RBA decision today and a talk by tonight Fed governor Lael Brainard tonight.

Just how will the markets react to North Korea’s bomb test over the weekend? And could the repair cost from Hurricane Harvey secure the US debt ceiling whilst giving the President an excuse not to bang on about his wall? Phil Dobbie puts those questions to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril in this edition of The Morning Call. Plus what to expect from Central Banks this week – and could the Aussie dollar rise above 80 US cents?

Friday 1st September 2017

No upward momentum in US inflation hit the US dollar overnight, although, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains to Phil Dobbie, the fall had as much to do with the rise in the Canadian dollar after a positive GDP reading. They also discuss China’s manufacturing PMIs, the ongoing aftermath of Tropical Storm Harvey, and how the ECB might be running scared on easing off their QE too quickly. Plus, Brexit goes nowhere, and what to expect from tonight’s non-farm payrolls in the US. It’s day one of a busy September.

Thursday 31st August 2017

The US reported stronger than expected economic growth, more jobs and a rise in personal expenditure. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what influence this will have on the Fed’s roadmap for rate rises. They also discuss Trump’s tax ‘rally’ in Missouri, Australia’s stellar construction data, the flailing Brexit talks in Brussels, growth in Europe and data to be on the lookout for today.