NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 16th August 2017

The markets have recovered further from their brief concerns over North Korea, meaning the focus is back on data and the words of central bank governors. Fortunately, there’s strong retail sales figures from the US to influence the markets. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether this means a December hike is firmly back on the table. And they discuss the continuing strength in Europe and confusion in Britain.

Tuesday 15th August 2017

Nobody said the markets weren’t fickle. All it takes is the distraction of domestic unrest in the US to divert attention from the Korean peninsula, and markets rebound. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Tapas Strickland, the dollar gained ground overnight, bond yields rose, safe haven currencies lost ground, gold retreated – it’s almost as though those harsh words between the two leaders never happened. They also discuss data from China and Japan, look behind a sharp fall in oil prices and look ahead to European data released tonight.

Monday 14th August 2017

Friday night’s CPI figures from the US came in weaker than expected, hitting the US dollar further. In this morning’s podcast Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether we can expect further falls in the dollar, or could we see it change direction sometime soon. Right now there seems a significant shift from US dollars to the Euro. They also discuss data released today from China, the Eurozone and Japan.

Friday 11th August 2017

Hopes that President Trump might tone down his “fire and fury” rhetoric vanished this morning as the President said his earlier warning wasn’t tough enough. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the market reaction to this escalating tension. They also look at tonight’s CPI figures from the US – could inflation be further away than thought – and the testimony from RBA Governor Philip Lowe this morning.

Ten years after the start of the global financial crisis, markets are reacting to a very different threat. Overnight we saw a move to traditional safe havens as the rhetoric between the US an d North Korea ratchets up a notch or two. The Yen and the Swiss Franc both rose in value, gold shot up, bond prices rose, even the VIX index showed a sharp response. So, what happens next? Phil Dobbie puts the question to NAB economist Tapas Strickland.

The US President has threatened North Korea with “fire and fury” overnight, reminding us that geopolitical uncertainty is part of the current landscape. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about this latest outburst, together with the impact of data showing strong jobs openings in the US. Plus the latest trade data from China and Australia’s strengthening business sentiment.

Whilst the North Koreans talk revenge, oil producers are meeting in Abu Dhabi to talk supply. And Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about these, and other issues impacting the markets today. Why, for example, has the New Zealand dollar taken a hit and what’s upsetting German shareholders? Plus the key data to look out for today.

President Trump has been happily tweeting about the latest employment data in the US, whilst Gary Cohn, Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser, is promising a comprehensive tax bill in the next month or so. A little optimistic, perhaps? Phil Dobbie cuts through the hyperbole with NAB’s Ray Attrill, as well as looking ahead to the economic data that matters.

Friday 4th August 2017

The pound had a sharp fall overnight. Phil Dobbie talks to the NAB’s Ray Attrill about the commentary from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney which didn’t help the situation, talking about the impacts of Brexit, given the increasing likelihood of a less than smooth transition. They also look at the RBA monetary policy statement today and jobs data from the US tonight.

Thursday 3rd August 2017

The US dollar weakened overnight, again, as four Fed speakers helped talk it down. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what exactly was said, and what else is driving the dollar down. Obviously, President Trump’s actions aren’t helping, including a bill forcing further sanctions on Russia and the renewed prospect of tariffs on China. They also discuss the Bank of England rate decision tonight and the Australian trade balance, which could be in surplus, or heavily in deficit. Listen in to find out why.