NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 2nd August 2017

The fall of the US dollar took respite overnight, helped by most data coming in as expected and no surprises from the White House (so far). Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the figures, and a warning from Alan Greenspan about a bubble in bonds. They also discuss the plight of the Aussie dollar, comments from the RBA and how, despite weaker dairy prices, growth continues to provide a challenge for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Tuesday 1st August 2017

On day one in his new job President Trump’s Chief of Staff has seen off Anthony Scaramucci as the White House communications director. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the impact of continued uncertainty in Washington. The US loss is Europe’s gain, but a weakened dollar could ultimately help the US economy and., conversely, provide a challenge for the ECB. They also discuss how this could all impact the RBA’s stance when they meet today. Plus, why has iron ore shoit up so much overnight, and data to look out for today.

Monday 31st July 2017

Although GDP data on Friday displayed growth in the US economy, the figures weren’t as strong as had been envisaged, weakening the US dollar further. Today on the Morning Call Phil Dobbie and Rodrigo Catril go through five factors influencing the US dollar right now – from the data and Fed speak, through to US politics and international affairs. Plus, a quick look at data out today that could influence the markets.

Friday 28th July 2017

There’s further signs that President Trump’s tax agenda is in disarray. House speaker Ryan has thrown is support behind Republicans opposed to a border tax, whilst votes on the healthcare bill could continue long into Friday night in Washington. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis what does all this uncertainty mean for the dollar? We’ve seen it slide in recent days, but overnight it was back on the climb, with equities taking a tumble. And tonight, GDP figures will be keenly watched for further evidence of the health – or otherwise – of the US economy.

Thursday 27th July 2017

The US Federal reserve made their rate announcement this morning. The fact that there is no change on rates came as no surprise to anyone, but they talked about easing their stimulus program “relatively soon”. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the swift reaction, which has seen a sharp fall in the US dollar. They also look at the day ahead, including import and export prices for Australia and trade balance figures in the US. And the Aussie dollar hits 80 US cents.

Wednesday 26th July 2017

Brace yourself for a busy day after an eventful night. Cuts promised by Saudi Arabia have sent the oil price three percent higher, whilst the Germany IFO survey was more positive than expected – German businesses are brimming with confidence. Phil Dobbie looks ahead to the rest of the day with the NAB’s David de Garis. We have Australia’s CPI figures for Q2, as well as words from the RBA’s Philip Lowe and, of course, the FOMC decision and commentary early tomorrow morning.

Tuesday 25th July 2017

There’s been an eerie silence on the markets as the Russian probe continues in Washington. Jared Kushner has denied any wrongdoing, with Donald Trump Jnr next in the firing line on Wednesday. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about a quiet trading night and asks if it could all change is President Trump secures the votes for his repeal of Obamacare tomorrow. Also, some signs of weakness in the Euro economy, and oil back on the up, but for how long?

Monday July 24th, 2017

The US dollar seems to be suffering from the uncertainty of the Trump presidency, which saw a considerable rise for the Aussie dollar last week. Except on Friday, when the US dollar continued its fall, but the Aussie also fell after the RBA’s Guy Debelle hinted that an interest rise wasn’t on the cards anytime soon. But, on today’s Morning Call Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill how long that stance can continue if the falling US dollar keeps upward pressure on the Aussie dollar.

Friday 21st July 2017

Even though, in his talk overnight, Mario Draghi said little about the ECB winding down its stimulus program, the Euro climbed markedly, sending the pound into a spin and knocking a chunk out of the US dollar. As Phil Dobbie suggests to the NAB’s David de Garis, imagine if he had said something definitive. This morning they also look at UK retail figures, yesterday’s Aussie jobs data and the latest palaver on the Trump-Russia thing.

Thursday 20th July 2017

The Aussie dollar is nudging closer to 80 US cents. Phil Dobbie asks the NAB’s Ray Attrill whether it could push higher over the next couple of days. Will it, for example, be influenced by decisions from the Bank of Japan and the ECB? Neither are expected to move rates, but what will they have to say on easing their stimulus measures. Governor Kuroda could well be downgrading Japan’s inflation target, indicating QE is here to stay, no matter what other central banks decide to do.