NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 19th July 2017

It’s RIP for President Trump’s healthcare bill. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the impact the Washington gridlock is having on the US currency and bond yields. Inflation in the UK fell back more than expected, hitting the pound, but is it a short term blip or the end of an upward trend? And the Aussie dollar has been the best performing major currency – will we pass the 80 US cent mark anytime soon?

Tuesday 18th July

After a boost on the back of poor US retail sales and inflation figures on Friday, the Aussie dollar has fallen back a little. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether that means it’s gone as far as it can for now, given the support you’d expect from strong Chinese data and a healthy rise in iron ore prices. We also ask just how important those inflation figures were for the Fed? With time to sleep on it, what’s the expectation of a rate hike before the end of the year. And we look at continued confusion in the UK ahead of CPI figures tonight.

Monday 17th July 2017

The US economy showed a couple of signs of weakness on Friday. Whilst the President tweets about the record price of equities and strong industrial production, he seems to have missed the drop in the value of the dollar on the back of lower than expected inflation and retail sales figures. Does this rule out another rate rise this year? Phil Dobbie puts the question to NAB’s Ray Attrill, as well as discussing the impact on the Aussie dollar, now at its highest level since May 2015. But will it stay there?

Friday 14th July 2017

Today, Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about President Trump’s visit to France. His meeting with his new best friend, President Macron, has diverted his tweets away from the Congressional Budget Office’s conclusion that the White House plan won’t deliver a balanced budget by 2027. Meanwhile, could the President’s tweet about beef signify a more productive relationship with China and end speculation of tariffs? All that, and why the Aussie and Kiwi dollars seem to be performing so well right now.

Thursday 13th July 2017

Janet Yellen chose her words carefully during her testimony overnight, but the market still reacted. Phil Dobbie looks at the response with the NAB’s Ray Attrill, who also explains why there was a marked reaction from the Bank of Canada doing exactly what everyone expected – pushing interest rates up a quarter of a percent. And Britain has some good news at last, but perhaps not enough to compensate for Andy Murray’s hip injury!

Wednesday 12th July 2017

Okay, we’re absolutely sure that interest rates don’t rise when someone presses a green button, but you get the idea. On today’s edition of the Morning Call Phil Dobbie asks the NAB’s Rodrigo Catril how the market will react if the Bank of Canada doesn’t raise rates tonight. Plus, markets have reacted to Donald Trump Jnr’s involvement in email exchanges with Russia over the US election, and the pound has been hit thanks to a bit of Ricardian theory from the Bank of England. Also, Janet Yellen will talk to the House Panel tonight, and the Fed releases its Beige book. And will we see the gap between Australian business and consumer confidence widen even further today?

Tuesday 11th July 2017

On today’s podcast Phil Dobbie likens the overnight markets to the life of Ralph Melish. Monty Python fans will know what we’re talking about. For the rest listen in to the explanation as he and the NAB’s David de Garis talk through a night in which nothing happened. With little data to speak of, could today be more of the same, or is it the calm before the storm. Janet Yellen speaks to the Senate tomorrow and the Bank of England’s Andy Haldane talks this evening – will he suggest a rate rise isn’t such a good idea after all?

Monday 10th July 2017

Phil Dobbie asks the NAB’s Ray Attrill two big questions on The Morning Call today. After a slew of poor data from the UK, weak wage growth in the US on Friday and a high proportion of part-time jobs in Canada, will central banks be as keen to lift interest rates? Plus, with the G20 out the way, was there enough commitment to resolving steel-dumping to prevent President Trump from tackling the issue unilaterally. So, the big things to look out for this week – what will Trump do next, and what will Janet Yellen say to the House and Senate this week.

Friday 7th July 2017.

A busy night! The selloff in European government bonds picked up from last week, stepping up a notch. At one stage, the yields on German bunds were up 10 basis points. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB economist Tapas Strickland about the ECB minutes, the source of this action, as well as what’s behind falls in the equity markets, ahead of the G20 and Trump’s meetings with various world leaders, Vladimir Putin included. Normally a summit like this is unlikely to have a big impact on markets, but perhaps it will be different this time round. Oh, and US non-farm payrolls tonight.

Thursday July 6th, 2017

Last week’s oil rally came to a screeching halt overnight, with West Texas Intermediate dropping more than 4 percent to just over $45 a barrel. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the impact of the fall, what we can read from the FOMC minutes overnight and the continued rise of the European economy with positive PMI figures. A different story, as usual lately, for the UK.