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0:00 National Emergency and Tariffs
2:57 USDA Preview
6:45 Argentina Rains Expected
8:01 Brazil Update
9:33 Ethanol Production is Strong
10:31 Flash Sale
π US Dollar and Bond Yields Rise Amid Economic Concerns π΅
The US dollar and bond yields continued their upward trend on Wednesday π. The 10-year US Treasury note yield rose to 4.73%, its highest level since April, while the dollar index increased 0.28% to 109.00, slightly below last week's two-year high of 109.54 π. The rise in the dollar and yields followed a CNN report suggesting that Donald Trump might declare a national economic emergency to push forward his broad tariff policies.
πΎ USDA's Crop Report and Grain Stocks Release on Friday π
The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Friday π. Analysts expect a small reduction in the size of the 2024 US corn and soybean crops, which could lead to reduced carryout projections if realized π½π±. US corn stocks as of December 1st are expected to be down less than 1% year-on-year, while soybean stocks are forecast to be up about 8% and wheat stocks up about 10% πΎ.Β
π§οΈ Argentina Forecasted to Receive Rainfall π¦οΈ
Argentina is expected to receive substantial rainfall over the next couple of weeks π§οΈ. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange predicts that Argentina's key farming region will receive 2 to 3 inches of rain in mid-January π§οΈ. This comes after dry conditions linked to La NiΓ±a have begun to impact crops. Water reserves in major farming areas have been at critical levels following below-normal rainfall in December. The forecasted rainfall will help crops reach February, when rainfall typically resumes π±.
π Dry Conditions Affecting Soybean Crops in Brazil π§π·
Dry conditions are starting to impact soybean crops in southern Brazil π. Parts of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost state, have gone 15 to 20 days without significant rainfall πΎ. The state's northwestern region is expected to remain dry for another 12 to 15 days, though the situation is not yet critical π¨. Meteorologists expect more consistent rainfall by late January, with frequent rains continuing through February, which could improve the crop situation π§οΈ. Meanwhile, Central Brazil is forecast to receive heavy rainfall, which may interfere with the early soybean harvest π±.
β½ US Ethanol Production Declines Slightly π
US ethanol production decreased last week for the first time in a month π. Weekly output dropped by 1% to 1.1 million barrels per day, though it was still 5.1% higher compared to the same week last year π½. Ethanol stocks increased by 2.2% compared to the prior week and were up 2.4% from the same week in 2023 π. Meanwhile, implied gasoline demand was up 3.8% from the previous week but down 5.9% from the same week last year π. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is down slightly compared to last year π.
4.9
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Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 National Emergency and Tariffs
2:57 USDA Preview
6:45 Argentina Rains Expected
8:01 Brazil Update
9:33 Ethanol Production is Strong
10:31 Flash Sale
π US Dollar and Bond Yields Rise Amid Economic Concerns π΅
The US dollar and bond yields continued their upward trend on Wednesday π. The 10-year US Treasury note yield rose to 4.73%, its highest level since April, while the dollar index increased 0.28% to 109.00, slightly below last week's two-year high of 109.54 π. The rise in the dollar and yields followed a CNN report suggesting that Donald Trump might declare a national economic emergency to push forward his broad tariff policies.
πΎ USDA's Crop Report and Grain Stocks Release on Friday π
The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Friday π. Analysts expect a small reduction in the size of the 2024 US corn and soybean crops, which could lead to reduced carryout projections if realized π½π±. US corn stocks as of December 1st are expected to be down less than 1% year-on-year, while soybean stocks are forecast to be up about 8% and wheat stocks up about 10% πΎ.Β
π§οΈ Argentina Forecasted to Receive Rainfall π¦οΈ
Argentina is expected to receive substantial rainfall over the next couple of weeks π§οΈ. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange predicts that Argentina's key farming region will receive 2 to 3 inches of rain in mid-January π§οΈ. This comes after dry conditions linked to La NiΓ±a have begun to impact crops. Water reserves in major farming areas have been at critical levels following below-normal rainfall in December. The forecasted rainfall will help crops reach February, when rainfall typically resumes π±.
π Dry Conditions Affecting Soybean Crops in Brazil π§π·
Dry conditions are starting to impact soybean crops in southern Brazil π. Parts of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost state, have gone 15 to 20 days without significant rainfall πΎ. The state's northwestern region is expected to remain dry for another 12 to 15 days, though the situation is not yet critical π¨. Meteorologists expect more consistent rainfall by late January, with frequent rains continuing through February, which could improve the crop situation π§οΈ. Meanwhile, Central Brazil is forecast to receive heavy rainfall, which may interfere with the early soybean harvest π±.
β½ US Ethanol Production Declines Slightly π
US ethanol production decreased last week for the first time in a month π. Weekly output dropped by 1% to 1.1 million barrels per day, though it was still 5.1% higher compared to the same week last year π½. Ethanol stocks increased by 2.2% compared to the prior week and were up 2.4% from the same week in 2023 π. Meanwhile, implied gasoline demand was up 3.8% from the previous week but down 5.9% from the same week last year π. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is down slightly compared to last year π.
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