Statistical variance can make or break your fantasy basketball draft. Some players deliver steady production every season, while others swing wildly between best- and worst-case outcomes.

Josh Lloyd, host of Locked On Fantasy Basketball and lead analyst at Basketball Monster, breaks down which players in each draft round have the narrowest outcome ranges and which ones carry the most risk.

From Nikola Jokic’s rock-solid consistency to Victor Wembanyama’s high-ceiling volatility, Lloyd highlights the contrasting profiles you need to weigh on draft day. Mid-rounds feature names like Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Pascal Siakam, while deeper into drafts players such as Mark Williams, Malik Monk, and Stephon Castle show how variance can create either breakout value or fantasy headaches.

Get the inside edge on balancing safety and upside in your draft strategy. Whether you’re chasing floor or ceiling, this episode shows you how to target the right mix of players to win your league.

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