Neutrality Studies

Iran managed to coerce the US into accepting its 10-point plan as a basis for negotiations. Here is what we can infer from this.

Substack article with full text: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/p/iran-declares-interim-victory

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Pascal Lottaz is joined by former US Army officer and military analyst Stanislav Krapivnik to discuss Trump’s threats toward Iran, the claimed rescue mission, risks to Gulf energy routes and power systems, the danger around nuclear sites, Israel’s role, and whether Iran, Russia, and China can raise the cost of a wider war.

Links:

Stanislav Krapivnik YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MrSlavikman

Stanislav Krapivnik on X: https://x.com/StasKrapivnik

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Timestamps:

00:00:00 Introduction and Trump threats

00:03:11 Failed rescue or covert raid

00:11:20 US limits and losses in Iran

00:14:14 Trump outburst and energy targets

00:22:03 Retaliation and nuclear danger

00:27:19 Can Iran force a US stop

00:29:54 Russia China and wider war

00:33:03 Pressure on Israel and US costs

00:38:30 Deterrence and the nuclear line

Felix Marquardt speaks with physician and trauma expert Dr. Gabor Maté about anti-Semitism claims, Zionism, colonialism, Gaza, French and European politics, censorship, Israeli dissent, and the push to criminalize anti-Zionism. They also discuss trauma, propaganda, victimhood, media silence, and the wider crisis inside Western power and public debate.

Links:

Felix's Channel: https://youtube.com/@theblackelephantexperience

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Timestamps:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:00:52 Gabor Maté on Zionism

00:10:07 US Europe and colonial denial

00:20:12 Anti Semitism and state interests

00:33:13 Rima Hassan and French repression

00:40:10 Colonial power and imperial decline

00:52:37 Speaking out and paying the price

00:57:24 Trauma identity and propaganda

US alliances now look less like protection and more like danger. Pascal Lottaz speaks with international human rights lawyer Saul Takahashi about living through the UAE missile alerts, the Gaza genocide, US bases turning allies into targets, Japan’s risks, failed deterrence, and the breakdown of the old order.

Links:

Saul Takahashi Researchmap: https://researchmap.jp/saul_takahashi

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Timestamps:

00:00:00 Saul Takahashi and UAE experience

00:07:36 Gaza genocide and Gulf fallout

00:12:13 Neutrality law and legal gray zones

00:17:40 US bases as magnets in Gulf and Japan

00:26:08 Takaichi Trump and Japan China ties

00:37:44 Proxy war risk and old order collapse

00:44:18 Regional security and multipolar shift

00:49:14 Colonialism clarity and public pressure

US power looks trapped, brittle, and in decline. Pascal Lottaz speaks with political economist Radhika Desai about Trump’s Iran war speech, a deepening Middle East quagmire, oil shock, NATO strain, lost US credibility, imperial decline, domestic decay, and the risk of an AI and debt crash.



Links:

Radhika Desai website: https://radhikadesai.com ([radhikadesai.com](https://radhikadesai.com/?utm_source=openai))

Radhika Desai Substack: https://radicaldesai.substack.com ([sidestack.io](https://sidestack.io/directory/substack/radicaldesai))



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Timestamps:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:00:49 Trump speech and war trap

00:05:00 Middle East quagmire and lost control

00:08:15 Gulf bases oil shock and allies

00:12:45 Iran war and imperial decline

00:16:37 US revolution capitalism and empire

00:24:51 Global backlash against US power

00:31:32 Trump antiwar brand collapse

00:39:14 AI bubble and crash risk

00:44:28 Where to follow Radhika

Western views of Iran are deeply distorted. Patrick Ringgenberg, EPFL lecturer and longtime Iran researcher, discusses media bias, Iran’s social and religious complexity, failed regime change thinking, war misreading, internal power factions, and the gap between diaspora narratives and life inside Iran.

Links:

Patrick Ringgenberg

Website: https://patrickringgenberg.com/home/

Academia: https://unil.academia.edu/PatrickRinggenberg

Article: https://forumgeopolitica.com/fr/article/la-guerre-contre-liran-un-tournant-pour-teheran-et-lordre-international

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Timestamps:

00:00:00 Introduction and war assessment

00:03:55 Real life inside Iran

00:09:40 Wine tradition and private life

00:13:13 Military misread and war delusion

00:21:32 Media bias and missing experts

00:28:30 The mullah regime label

00:35:09 Minorities and national identity

00:40:03 Power factions and state structure

00:53:56 Closing critique of Iran coverage

This is a grave case of political punishment without due process. Pascal Lottaz speaks with journalist Hüseyin Doğru, who says EU sanctions turned him into a non-person inside Germany. The discussion covers the lack of trial or hearing, the struggle to challenge sanctions in court, frozen bank access, the seizure of his wife’s accounts, and the danger this creates for his children. They also discuss the silence of major media and unions, the wider use of sanctions and debanking against dissent, and the need for public protest and political pressure.

Links:

Hüseyin Doğru on X: https://x.com/hussedogru

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Timestamps:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:00:59 Sanctioned inside Germany

00:07:07 German court and blocked payments

00:12:02 Wife accounts frozen

00:22:23 Fear and the test case claim

00:26:31 Media unions and silence

00:33:06 Courts politics and no remedy

00:42:13 Wider crackdown across Europe

00:46:05 Political resistance and final appeal

Iran looks far harder to break than many in the West assumed. Pascal Lottaz talks with Dr. Pietro Shakarian and Eldar Mamedov about Iranian Azerbaijan, Armenia, Israel, Turkey, failed diplomacy, and the wider South Caucasus fallout from the war.

Links:

Eldar Mamedov at Quincy Institute: https://quincyinst.org/author/eldar-mamedov/

Eldar Mamedov on X: https://twitter.com/EldarMamedov4

Dr. Pietro A. Shakarian at AUA: https://people.aua.am/team_member/dr-pietro-a-shakarian/

Pietro A. Shakarian at The Nation: https://www.thenation.com/authors/pietro-shakarian/

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Timestamps:

00:00:00 Guests and Iran background

00:04:43 Iranian Azerbaijan reality

00:13:26 Soviet myths and deep integration

00:16:11 Armenians and Christians in Iran

00:22:16 Iran as a civilizational state

00:27:05 Gaza Israel and failed diplomacy

00:36:46 Azerbaijan Turkey and war risks

00:55:21 Armenia politics and corridor fallout

01:00:34 Regional solutions and closing

Not just Cuba, but the entire Caribbean region is under intense US threat from blockade, hunger, bombing, and old colonial habits dressed up as foregin policy. Today, I speak with Dr. Richard Byron-Cox, a Caribbean-born author with a PhD in public international law, about Cuba’s deep crisis, Haiti’s long suffering, and the wider struggle of small states facing raw power. The discussion moves from the history of the Monroe Doctrine and the Cuban Revolution to present claims about sanctions, energy shortages, intervention, and fear across Caribbean waters. I also push the question of whether change can come from law, diplomacy, public pressure, or reform inside the West itself. The result is a hard exchange on justice, sovereignty, resistance, and the future of shared human life.

Dr. Byron-Cox's Links:

Were Mama’s Tears in Vain?: https://www.abebooks.com/9781969368486/Mama%E2%80%99s-Tears-Vain-Byron-Cox-Richard-1969368489/plp

Living in wisdom – an examination of human nature: https://www.abebooks.com/9781970749342/Living-wisdom-examination-human-nature-1970749342/plp

The Story of Paulene Bramble: Book One: https://www.amazon.com/Story-Paulene-Bramble-Springs-Blossoms-ebook/dp/B0DDVN4JJ9

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Timestamps:

00:00:00 Cuba under blockade

00:01:07 Caribbean politics and US pressure

00:08:30 Conditions inside Cuba

00:11:00 Haiti and Caribbean neocolonialism

00:20:13 Resistance history and African roots

00:31:51 Regional alliances and coercion

00:38:29 Reform power and imperial decline

00:52:09 Common humanity and final reflections

Former CIA analyst, Larry Johnson is quite sure; there is no "grand strategy" or "4D Chess" going on. The US/Israeli coalition war against Iran is just a rolling disaster (academics would call it "path dependent) in which one bad decision leads to the next and by now a ground invasion with US boots on the ground is basically inevitable because they already went through the built up of the forces—so you gotta use'm. But what can they do? And what will happen once Iran then obliterates them? Well, buckle up because this is ain't gonna be pretty. However, the noble men and women in Washington still manage to game the markets and make a lot of money while we are waiting for the troop build up to be completed. What a horror show.

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