This week, the U.S. and Canada announced 50% tariffs on each other’s imports following a breakdown in trade talks, while the U.S. Supreme Court dismissed a lawsuit challenging the creation of a federal list of voters, granting the federal government the ability to invalidate votes it deems ineligible.

In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced visit to Moscow to warn Russia against escalation against NATO, while in Kyiv, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledged continued support for Ukraine. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. is preparing to impose additional tariffs on China linked to industrial overcapacity, while the U.S. Department of Justice disrupted Chinese network hacking operations against U.S. governmental agencies.

In the Middle East, the U.S. Treasury imposed a series of sanctions against multiple entities for their trade involvement with Iran, while Iran and Oman agreed on a joint facilitation framework for safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz.

Featuring: Eugene Chausovsky, Andrew Loftesnes, and Jared Jeter.

Milos Maggiore, Andrew Loftesnes, and Jared Jeter look at some of the key developments from the week, including President Trump's threats against anyone trading with Iran, and the news that U.S./South Korean military drills were substantially reduced following directives from Trump.

Elsewhere, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia threatened to retaliate against the United Kingdom after Ukrainian forces used British-supplied drones for long-range attacks against Russia to attack, as reports indicate Moscow has supplied drone parts to Iran.

In the Americas, the U.S. postponed the imposition of 50% tariffs on Canada amid trade negotiations, while U.S. oil companies are expected to sign contracts with Venezuela.

In our first episode of Why the Balkans?, Tanya Domi is joined by Ramadan Ilazi, Head of Research at the Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS), to unpack Kosovo’s ongoing political deadlock. They examine why Kosovo continues to struggle to form a government after elections, what the impasse reveals about its political system, and what it means for the country’s relationship with the EU and the wider Western Balkans.

In this week's episode, Shahad Turkistani, Analyst at New Lines Institute, returns to break down the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, the trilateral pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on 7 August, which commits all three to treat an armed attack on any one of them as an attack on all.

Additionally this week, Milos Maggiore and Andrew Loftesnes discuss developments in the Middle East, where Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait killed at least six people and disrupted international shipping, while Iranian officials stated that negotiations with the U.S. are at a deadlock.

In the Indo-Pacific, China conducted a joint naval patrol with an Indonesian warship off Taiwan’s east coast, while Russian President Vladimir Putin visited a disputed island with Japan. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that North Korea would be sending additional troops and weapons to the conflict while Putin threatened to respond in kind to recent European seizures of Russian shadow fleet vessels. In the Americas, a Canadian petition to expel U.S. ambassador Pete Hoekstra is set to be discussed in the House of Commons, while U.S. judges have found the Trump administration to be using an unlawful interpretation of the law to justify its mass detention policy.

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump called off a planned strike against Iran and hailed progress in negotiations between Israel and Hamas while Israeli forces clashed with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In the Indo-Pacific, China and the U.S. imposed reciprocal targeted tariffs and sanctions, while Chinese traders resumed purchases of U.S. soybeans. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russian strikes on Kyiv killed at least 17 people after Ukraine’s forces ran out of interceptor missiles, and a drone carrying explosive material was found and diffused near a military transport airport in Leipzig, Germany.

In the United States, Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in Michigan on a progressive platform, while acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche rescinded the Trump-backed “anti-weaponization fund” following weeks of negotiations in the Senate.

This week, we are joined by our colleague Shahad Turkistani to examine in more detail the U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal. In other developments, Saudi Arabia joined the U.S. in conducting airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq, drawing retaliatory strikes against Saudi energy infrastructure as regional hostilities expanded, while a Hezbollah drone strike threatened the Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. shared a photo of a joint coast guard patrol with Taiwan for the first time, while China warned of retaliatory measures against any future U.S. sanctions on its AI industry. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. Senate approved new sanctions legislation targeting Russia as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, while Ukrainian forces struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea.

This week, a new front opened in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran as the Yemeni al-Houthi rebel group fired on Saudi oil tankers attempting to cross the Bab al-Mandeb. Meanwhile, Israel began returning control of occupied Lebanese territory to the Lebanese army.

In the Indo-Pacific, China conducted two days of live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and clashed with Philippine vessels in the South China Sea during the ASEAN summit in Manila.

In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Lithuania’s defense minister warned of an increased risk of Russian sabotage operations in the Baltics, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy replaced the head of the Ukrainian armed forces after last week’s firing of its defense minister led to nationwide protests.

In the U.S., the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security threatened to prosecute state officials who do not use a DHS database for voter validation, while the U.S. sent the first shipment of $100 million in humanitarian aid to Cuba.

This week, the U.S. renewed strikes against Iran and a naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Israel and Lebanon held negotiations in Rome.

In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. confirmed it had started to sell minimal amounts of Nvidia H200 microchips to China, and Taiwan announced an additional $100 billion investment in the United States’ advanced chip industry. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the U.S. unveiled legislation that would enact sanctions against the Russian economy following support from U.S.

President Donald Trump, while protests took place across Ukraine following President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decision to reshuffle his Cabinet. In global trade, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 25% tariff on all Brazilian imports, with tariffs on other trading partners expected to be announced in upcoming weeks.

In this second episode reviewing our recently published 2026 Q3 Forecast report, our team focuses on Bolivia, Sudan, and the DRC among some of the countries not covered in part 1, providing an outlook on the domestic and international situation related to these countries going into the third quarter.