This week, we are joined by our colleague Shahad Turkistani to examine in more detail the U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal. In other developments, Saudi Arabia joined the U.S. in conducting airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq, drawing retaliatory strikes against Saudi energy infrastructure as regional hostilities expanded, while a Hezbollah drone strike threatened the Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. shared a photo of a joint coast guard patrol with Taiwan for the first time, while China warned of retaliatory measures against any future U.S. sanctions on its AI industry. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. Senate approved new sanctions legislation targeting Russia as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, while Ukrainian forces struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea.

This week, a new front opened in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran as the Yemeni al-Houthi rebel group fired on Saudi oil tankers attempting to cross the Bab al-Mandeb. Meanwhile, Israel began returning control of occupied Lebanese territory to the Lebanese army.

In the Indo-Pacific, China conducted two days of live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and clashed with Philippine vessels in the South China Sea during the ASEAN summit in Manila.

In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Lithuania’s defense minister warned of an increased risk of Russian sabotage operations in the Baltics, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy replaced the head of the Ukrainian armed forces after last week’s firing of its defense minister led to nationwide protests.

In the U.S., the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security threatened to prosecute state officials who do not use a DHS database for voter validation, while the U.S. sent the first shipment of $100 million in humanitarian aid to Cuba.

This week, the U.S. renewed strikes against Iran and a naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Israel and Lebanon held negotiations in Rome.

In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. confirmed it had started to sell minimal amounts of Nvidia H200 microchips to China, and Taiwan announced an additional $100 billion investment in the United States’ advanced chip industry. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the U.S. unveiled legislation that would enact sanctions against the Russian economy following support from U.S.

President Donald Trump, while protests took place across Ukraine following President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decision to reshuffle his Cabinet. In global trade, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 25% tariff on all Brazilian imports, with tariffs on other trading partners expected to be announced in upcoming weeks.

In this second episode reviewing our recently published 2026 Q3 Forecast report, our team focuses on Bolivia, Sudan, and the DRC among some of the countries not covered in part 1, providing an outlook on the domestic and international situation related to these countries going into the third quarter.

In this episode, our team highlights our recently published 2026 Q3 Forecast report on geopolitical hotspots around the world and their implications on global connectivity themes like trade, technology, energy, and climate. In part 1 of this podcast, we focus on the US/Americas, the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific, and the Russia/Ukraine war, discussing the most important events from the past three months, and looking ahead at what the next quarter may bring.

This week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy demanded Belarus remove military equipment from their shared border, while Ukrainian forces continued attacking energy and transport infrastructure near Moscow and in Crimea. In the Indo-Pacific, China sanctioned two critical minerals companies in the U.S., while U.S. AI company Anthropic accused Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba of copying its software. In the Middle East, Israel continued airstrikes against Lebanon despite ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, with Israeli officials reiterating that they would not withdraw from the country.

This week, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding paving the way for a ceasefire and two months of negotiations aimed at settling their conflict.

Meanwhile, Israel stated it would continue to occupy territory in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. In the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan’s opposition leader met with members of the U.S. Congress in Washington, while the U.K. and Japan agreed to boost defense and economic cooperation.

In Ukraine transatlantic relations, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced a six-month review of the U.S. military presence in Europe, while Ukrainian drones continued to strike oil in Russia, including one close to Moscow.

In the U.S., lawmakers continued to debate the renewal of the Foreign Surveillance Authorization Act (FISA), which the White House has now linked to its ambitions for voter identification reform.

Riley Sullivan sits down with Linda Robinson, Senior Fellow for Women and Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss the dynamics of democracy, gender equality, and women's leadership, as well as her new book, Women in Power: Fighting for Democracy in an Age of Authoritarianism.

This week, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after it and the U.S. traded strikes. Elsewhere in the Middle East, Israel continued its bombing campaign against Lebanon.

In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. sanctioned Chinese entities for their role in supporting Iran, while Chinese President Xi Jinping met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang for the first time in seven years. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine continued its long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Nordic and Baltic leaders in Estonia following accidental Ukrainian drone incursions into the region.

In the Americas, Congress passed a $70 billion measure to fund the Department of Homeland Security after months of stalling, while Cuba’s private sector is set to receive 250,000 barrels of oil from the U.S., pending approval from the Trump administration.

This week, the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes amid continued diplomacy, while Israel continued its ground operations in Lebanon despite a conditional ceasefire agreement between them. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. set out new guidance designed to close loopholes that allowed China to receive advanced AI chips, while U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth pushed for increased allied defense spending at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue.

In transatlantic relations and the Russia/Ukraine war, Ukrainian long-range drones struck an oil terminal near St. Petersburg during its hosting of an annual international economic forum as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the EU voted to start accession talks for Ukraine and Moldova.

In the United States, President Donald Trump canceled the establishment of a $1.8 billion fund to compensate, among others, Jan., while the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative called for the imposition of at least 10% tariffs on more than 60 trading partners.