On the Middle East with Amberin Zaman

The risk of a region-wide war is growing as Israel carries out ground and air operations against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and beyond. Hezbollah and Iran have been irreversibly weakened in this latest cycle of violence, argues scholar Lina Khatib of Chatham House. 

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Jim Muir, one of the most seasoned Western journalists in the Middle East, has been covering the Arab-Israeli conflict for almost 50 years. Muir tells Al-Monitor that the latest round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is unlike any other in the past, with unforeseeable consequences for both sides, as well for Lebanon and Iran.

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On Sept. 9, Cyrus and the United States inked a defense cooperation agreement, sparking angry reactions from Turkey. The agreement was signed as Turkey's relations with Washington remain essentially on the rocks. Turkey charges that the United States is using Cyprus to ship weapons to Israel, an accusation that Cyprus denies. However, what goes on at two sovereign British bases on the island remains unknown to the public.

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Few know the true story behind Syria's support for Kurdish militants fighting Turkey. Turkish academic Behlul Ozkan explains how and why Turkey's pro-military rulers backed an Islamist uprising in the early 1980s against the regime of Hafez al-Assad, leading Damascus to open its doors to the PKK.

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While little is known about Vice President Kamala Harris' views on the Middle East and on the world in general, there is far more information available about the approach of her top foreign policy adviser, Phil Gordon, who will likely land a prime position in a future Harris administration if she wins in November. Omer Taspinar, a professor of national security studies at the National War College, has worked with Gordon, co-authoring a book on Turkey with him. He shares his insights on the likely shape of Middle East policy should Harris be elected in November.

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Russia's national security chief, Sergei Shoigu, traveled to Tehran this week where he met with Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeskhian. Coming on the heels of the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil, Shoigu's visit prompted a flurry of speculation about the Kremlin's intentions. Iran has vowed revenge for the attack which it has blamed on Israel. Hanna Notte, head of the Eurasia program at the James Martin Center for Nuclear Non Proliferation Studies, unpacks the stakes. 

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Hamidreza Azizi is a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He tells Al-Monitor that Iran's proxies in Yemen, Iraq and Syria will likely carry out a coordinated campaign to avenge Haniyeh's death and that the chances of a ceasefire in Gaza have been dealt a crippling blow. The risk of a full-blown regional conflict is rising.

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Ezgi Basaran is a Turkish journalist turned academic who has written a new book examining the outsize influence of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party over Tunisia's Islamist Ennahda party and Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood party. While both have suffered huge setbacks, Basaran argues they will re-emerge and that the pursuit of power will trump ideology.

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The election victory of heart surgeon Masoud Pezeshkian has aroused hopes and doubts in Iran and beyond. He is a Reformist who says he will be more lenient towards women and will seek to reduce tensions with the West. Yet, his record is spotty. While defying hawkish clerics on some critical occasions, he has stood up for them on others. As with all else in Iran, deciphering the real Pezeshkian is no easy task, says Iranian academic Arash Azizi. 

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Washington is piling pressure on Azerbaijan to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan that would allow Turkey to normalize its relations with Armenia. But Azerbaijan is resisting calls to finalize a draft peace agreement and wants further concessions from Armenia. Benjamin Poghosyan, a senior research fellow at the ARPI think tank in Yerevan, explains why.

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