• APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the gains on Wall Street, where stocks were underpinned amid Russia/Ukraine optimism and a softer yield environment.
• US President Trump thinks they are getting very close to a deal on Ukraine, while he separately commented that they are making progress and Ukraine is happy.
• Nikkei 225 shrugged off a source report that the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December, although one of the sources noted that the decision between hiking in December or January remained a close call; JPY strengthened, 10yr JGB futures trickled lower.
• NZD outperformed after the RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25%, as expected, and kept its options open on future policy, although its projections suggested a pause in rates throughout 2026.
• White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is reportedly seen as the frontrunner in the Fed Chair search, according to Bloomberg citing sources, although separate sources said “there is no frontrunner”.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Dallas Fed (Oct), Jobless Claims (w/e 22 Nov), UK Autumn Budget, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including ECB’s Vujcic, Lane & Lagarde, Supply from Germany & US.

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

• US stocks were firmer on Tuesday, and while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 underperformed, it managed to pare all weakness initially seen, driven by NVIDIA, amid The Information reported that Meta is considering using Google’s TPUs in its data centres in 2027. NVIDIA (-2.6%) still ended the day with losses, but the wider index managed to recover. Sectors overall were predominantly in the green, with Health and Consumer Discretionary sitting at the top of the pile. Utilities and Energy were the only sectors in the red. The latter was hit by weakness in the crude complex amid positive Ukraine/Russia peace deal developments, with Trump most recently posting on Truth Social that there are only a few remaining points of disagreement, and as such, he is sending Witkoff to meet with Russian President Putin in Moscow, and Driscoll to meet with the Ukrainians. Meanwhile, the deluge of US data did little to move markets, as PPI and Retail Sales were dated (Sept), although Consumer Confidence (Nov) was dismal. On the Fed front, Miran was his usual dovish self, but the US yield curve steepened amid BBG reports that Hassett is seen as the frontrunner in Trump's Fed Chair search.
• SPX +0.91% at 6,766, NDX +0.58% at 25,018, DJI +1.43% at 47,112, RUT +2.14% at 2,466.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• China bought at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans for January shipments, according to traders cited by Reuters.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• White House said President Trump is not considering a straight two-year subsidy extension and will make recommendations for healthcare policy improvements soon, while Trump later commented that he doesn't want to extend subsidies regarding healthcare policy.
• US President Trump was reportedly weighing ousting FBI Director Kash Patel, although Trump later stated that Kash Patel is doing a great job.
• White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is reportedly seen as the frontrunner in the Fed Chair search, according to Bloomberg citing sources. Hassett is seen as someone who would bring the president’s approach to interest rate cutting to the Fed, which Trump has long wanted to control, some of the sources said.
• Fox's Lawrence said, regarding the search for the next Fed Chair, that "There is no frontrunner: Senior US official confirmed a final list of candidates has not yet been sent to the White House. A final list will be sent to Trump after interviews have concluded". Lawrence added that "The Treasury Secretary says he has not yet finished the interviews for the possible next Federal Reserve Chairman".
• US October Budget (USD): -248bln (exp. -235.05bln, prev. -257bln in Oct 2024), budget outlays 689bln (prev. 584bln); receipts 404bln (prev. 327bln); net customs receipts 31.4bln (prev. 7.3bln)
• Fed Discount Rates Minutes stated that Board members discussed economic and financial developments and issues related to possible policy actions, while no sentiment was expressed by the Board at the meeting for changing the primary credit rate at this time, and the Board approved the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 4.25%.

• APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the gains on Wall Street, where stocks were underpinned amid Russia/Ukraine optimism and a softer yield environment.
• ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in mining and materials, with most sectors in the green aside from utilities, tech and telecoms.
• Nikkei 225 rallied with SoftBank among the biggest gainers as it rebounded from the previous day's OpenAI-related slump, and with participants shrugging off a source report that the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December, although one of the sources noted that the decision between hiking in December or January remained a close call.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged amid a focus on earnings with mixed results from the likes of Alibaba and NIO.
• US equity futures marginally extended on the previous day's advances heading into the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.7% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.8% on Tuesday.

• DXY remained subdued following the recent deluge of data, including softer-than-expected Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence and Core PPI figures, in combination with optimistic headlines on Ukraine-Russia, while it was also reported by Bloomberg that NEC Director Hassett, a close ally of Trump, is the frontrunner for the Fed Chair role, although Fox Business sources refuted the claim.
• EUR/USD held on to recent gains with a firm footing above the 1.1500 level after benefitting from the weaker dollar, while there were previous comments from ECB's Makhlouf, who noted concern about service and food inflation.
• GBP/USD was firmer ahead of today's Budget announcement with further leaks reported, including an increase to the minimum wage and no cuts on VAT applied to energy bills.
• USD/JPY saw two-way price action with initial upside reversed after a source report that BoJ messaging is preparing markets for possible interest rate hike as soon as December, with a tweak to communication, although one of the sources noted the decision on whether to hike in December or hold off until January remains a close call.
• Antipodeans strengthened with AUD supported following firmer-than-expected inflation data, while NZD outperformed after the RBNZ policy announcement in which the central bank cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25%, as expected, and kept its options open on future policy, although its projections suggested a pause in rates throughout 2026.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0796 vs exp. 7.0825 (Prev. 7.0826)

• 10yr UST futures mildly pulled back after bull steepening on soft data and reports that NEC Director Hassett is the frontrunner for the Fed Chair role.
• Bund futures faded some of their recent gains ahead of several ECB speakers and today's Bund issuance.
• 10yr JGB futures trickled lower amid mild gains in yields after a somewhat hawkish BoJ source report, while the latest 40-year JGB auction results showed a relatively in line b/c but lower accepted prices.

• Crude futures were rangebound and took a breather after fluctuating yesterday amid the positive risk environment and Russia/Ukraine peace deal updates, while the latest private sector inventory data was mixed and did little to spur price action.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -1.9mln (exp. +0.1mln), Distillate +0.8mln (exp. +0.6mln), Gasoline +0.5mln (exp. +0.7mln), Cushing -0.3mln.
• Spot gold remained underpinned amid a weaker dollar and recent softening of yields.
• Copper futures continued its gradual rebound from yesterday's trough with futures back above the USD 5.10/lb level.

• Bitcoin was relatively flat after oscillating through the USD 87,500 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoJ is said to be preparing markets for a possible interest rate hike as soon as December with a tweak to communication, according to Reuters sources, although one of the sources said the decision on whether to hike in December or hold off until January remains a close call.
• RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25%, as expected, and stated that future moves in the OCR will depend on the outlook for the medium-term. RBNZ said annual consumer inflation increased to 3% in the September quarter but added that with spare capacity in the economy, inflation is expected to fall to around 2% by mid-2026, while it commented that risks to the inflation outlook are balanced and economic activity was weak over mid-2025 but is picking up. Furthermore, it projected the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% in March 2026 (prev. 2.55%) and at 2.28% in December 2026 (prev. 2.62%). RBNZ Minutes revealed that the decision was made by a vote of 5-1 and that the committee discussed the options of holding the OCR at 2.50% or lowering it to 2.25% in which the case for a hold emphasised the considerable reduction in the OCR to date, while the case for a cut emphasised significant excess capacity in the economy.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said the stimulus package isn't reckless spending, and added that a strengthening economy can help improve Japan's fiscal health. She said JGB issuance for this fiscal year will be below last year's size, including expected issuance for extra budget, and it is important to ensure fiscal sustainability. She noted they will strike to lower debt-to-GDP ratio with a close eye on interest rates, and the government will take appropriate steps by gauging whether FX rates reflect fundamentals. She said they will watch FX for any speculative moves, and will watch Yen and JGB yields closely.
• RBNZ Governor Hawkesby said he feels that risks are balanced and they are in a great position to mitigate risks, while he stated the central projection is based on the Cash Rate being on hold through 2026, as well as noted that economic indicators are picking up across all high-frequency measures and the current cash rate is supportive and stimulatory. Hawkesby also commented that they retain full optionality on the cash rate with every option on the table.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Services PPI (Oct) 2.70% vs. Exp. 2.70% (Prev. 3.00%)
• Australian CPI YY (Oct) 3.80% vs. Exp. 3.60%
• Australian Weighted Median CPI YY SA (Oct) 3.40% vs. Exp. 2.95%
• Australian Trimmed Mean CPI YY SA (Oct) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.0%
• Australian Construction Work Done (Q3) -0.7% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 3.0%)

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump thinks they are getting very close to a deal on Ukraine, while he separately commented that they are making progress and Ukraine is happy. Trump said Europe will be largely involved in security guarantees and that the initial 28-point plan was just a map, as well as noted that Special Envoy Witkoff will be meeting with Russian President Putin in Moscow next week. Trump also commented that the Russians are making concessions and there is no deadline for a deal.
• US President Trump posted that his team has made tremendous progress with respect to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, and he directed Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with Russian President Putin in Moscow in the hope of finalising the peace plan.
• US Special Envoy Witkoff advised Russia on how to pitch the Ukraine plan to US President Trump, according to Bloomberg.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready to move forward with the peace deal framework with US President Trump and Europe, while Zelensky said Europe should continue to support Ukraine as long as Russia shows no willingness to end the war, and he called on European leaders to work out a doable framework to deploy a reassurance force in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky's Chief of Staff Yermak spoke to US Army Secretary Driscoll and expects him to visit Kyiv this week, while Yermak thanked Driscoll for his objectivity and concrete approach. Furthermore, he said Ukraine is willing to work quickly to finalise steps to end the bloodshed and that Geneva talks on a peace accord provided a good base, with President Zelensky fully ready to work further.
• Latest Ukraine peace draft 'significantly better for Kyiv' and allows Kyiv to keep 800k strong army, according to AFP citing a senior official.
• Russia is expected to reject the new 19-point cease-fire deal drafted by the US and Ukraine, suggesting the war will last at least through Christmas, sources told NY Post.

OTHER

• Taiwan's President Lai said his government will introduce a historic USD 40bln supplementary defence budget and that the package will not only fund significant new arms acquisitions from the US, but also vastly enhance Taiwan’s asymmetrical capabilities. Lai said Beijing has been trying to turn democratic Taiwan into China’s Taiwan and that China’s threats to the Indo-Pacific are intensifying, while he added that Beijing continues to increase military drills and grey-zone harassment near Taiwan. Lai also stated that China’s infiltration and influence campaigns in Taiwan are intensifying, and China is speeding up military preparations to take Taiwan by force. Furthermore, he said mechanisms will be set up to counter China’s transnational repression and to protect Taiwan’s citizens, as well as noted that “one country, two systems” is a red line for Taiwan and Taiwan will adopt a strategy of self-defence to counter China's threats.
• Taiwan's Defence Minister said China has changed its patterns and is squeezing Taiwan’s response time, while he commented that the special defence budget runs from 2026 to 2033 and will cover items from missiles to drones to counter fast-rising Chinese threats.
• US de facto ambassador to Taiwan welcomes President Lai’s announcement of a new special defence budget and said the US supports Taiwan’s rapid acquisition of critical asymmetric capabilities needed to strengthen deterrence, while he stated that today’s announcement is a major step toward maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait by strengthening deterrence.
• China's Taiwan Affairs Office said regarding Japan's missile deployment plan near Taiwan, that they have firm will, strong determination and a powerful ability to crush all foreign interference schemes.
• Cuba's Foreign Minister said US intervention in Venezuela would be a violation of international law and the UN Charter, while he added that the exaggerated and aggressive military presence of the US in the region constitutes a threat against Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK government approved a 4.1% increase in the main minimum wage rate to GBP 12.71 an hour from April 2026.

• APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the tech-led rally on Wall St, where sentiment was bolstered as dovish comments from Fed officials boosted December rate cut bets.
• NVIDIA (NVDA) fell afterhours on a report that Meta (META) is in talks to spend billions on Google's (GOOGL) AI chips.
• US President Trump posted that he had a very good telephone call with Chinese President Xi and that they discussed many topics, including Ukraine/Russia, fentanyl, soybeans and other farm products.
• US Q3 GDP initial estimate is to be released on December 23rd, while US PCE and Personal Income report (Sep) was rescheduled for December 5th, according to the BEA.
• ECB's Nagel said the current level of the Euro at 1.1600 is not cause for concern.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German GDP (Q3), US Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP, US PPI (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep), Consumer Confidence (Nov), Richmond Fed (Nov), Speakers including ECB’s Cipollone & Makhlouf, Supply from UK, Italy, Germany & US, Earnings from Dell.

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

• US stocks rallied with the SPX reclaiming 6,700 and posting broad-based gains, while the Nasdaq was the outperformer as AI names clawed back some recent losses. Communications jumped 4%, led by Alphabet after more upbeat commentary on its latest AI updates, while tech and consumer discretionary gained about 2.5% (led by Broadcom, AVGO +11%) and 2.0%, respectively. Furthermore, NVIDIA (NVDA) fell afterhours on a report that Meta (META) is in talks to spend billions on Google's (GOOGL) AI chips.
• Support also came from firmer expectations of a December rate cut after Fed Governor Waller reaffirmed backing for a 25bps move, and Daly (2027 voter) also endorsed such a reduction. As such, money markets priced a December cut at a 76% probability at one point, which was up from the 56% chance seen on Friday.
• SPX +1.55% at 6,705, NDX +2.62% at 24,874, DJI +0.44% at 46,448, RUT +1.89% at 2,414.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump posted that he had a very good telephone call with Chinese President Xi and that they discussed many topics, including Ukraine/Russia, fentanyl, soybeans and other farm products. Trump added that they have done a good and very important deal for farmers, and it will only get better, as well as noted that the relationship with China is extremely strong. Furthermore, he said that President Xi invited him to visit Beijing in April, which he accepted and reciprocated, with Xi to be Trump’s guest for a state visit to the US later in the year.
• White House Press Secretary said US President Trump and Chinese President Xi's phone call lasted an hour, while trade was discussed, and the call was productive.
• EU reportedly dismissed the US demand to relax tech regulations in exchange for lower steel tariffs, according to sources.
• Trade talks between the US and Canada remain stalled, and there's an emerging belief in both governments that key issues will be rolled into next year's broader review of the North America trade deal, according to sources via Bloomberg.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter) said there are real use cases for AI, but not for crypto, and noted people are feeling hardship due to inflation.
• Fed's Daly (2027 voter) backs a December rate cut, citing a vulnerable labour market, while she supports lowering rates at the December meeting because she sees a sudden deterioration in the job market as both more likely and harder to manage than an inflation flare-up.
• White House said US President Trump signed an executive order related to AI research, while the order will boost AI-accelerated innovation and directs the building of AI platforms to harness federal scientific data sets.
• US Q3 GDP initial estimate is to be released on December 23rd, while US PCE and Personal Income report (Sep) was rescheduled for December 5th, according to the BEA.

• APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the tech-led rally on Wall St, where sentiment was bolstered as dovish comments from Fed officials boosted December rate cut bets.
• ASX 200 finished higher but lagged for most the session as strength in mining names was negated by underperformance in the top-weighted financial industry and losses in defensives.
• Nikkei 225 initially rallied on return from the extended weekend and briefly reclaimed the 49,000 level, before momentarily wiping out its entire spoils.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned by continued warming US-China relations following a call between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi, which Trump described as a very good call and noted that they discussed many topics, including Ukraine/Russia, fentanyl, soybeans and other farm products. The PBoC also conducted a CNY 1tln MLF operation that resulted in a net liquidity injection of CNY 100bln.
• US equity futures plateaued overnight and held on to the prior day's tech-led gains.
• European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.3% on Monday.

• DXY was contained amid the positive risk appetite and as rate cut bets were boosted following the dovish rhetoric from Fed officials, including Waller who reiterated the case for a December cut, while Daly said she'd back a rate cut as she sees a sudden deterioration in the job market as both more likely and harder to manage than an inflation flare-up. Attention was also on the Ukraine peace plan, which the Washington Post reported was now a 19-point plan, down from 28, with talks expected to continue, while it was also announced that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi held a phone call that was said to be productive, in which leaders discussed many topics, including trade.
• EUR/USD traded little changed after recently benefiting from a softer buck and optimism on the Ukraine conflict.
• GBP/USD held onto the 1.3100 handle for most of the session following the prior day's choppy performance alongside further updates ahead of the Budget announcement on Wednesday, which Chancellor Reeves said would include three priorities: the cost of living, NHS waiting lists and the cost of debt.
• USD/JPY marginally pulled back after briefly returning to the 157.00 territory, with the recent weakness in the Japanese currency spurring expectations of potential looming BoJ intervention.
• Antipodeans were uneventful amid a virtually non-existent overnight calendar, although with slight pressure in NZD ahead of a widely anticipated rate cut by the RBNZ at tomorrow's meeting.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0826 vs exp. 7.1056 (Prev. 7.0847).

• 10yr UST futures paused overnight after gradually edging higher yesterday amid dovish Fed rhetoric, but with the upside limited amid supply.
• Bund futures remained afloat following recent indecision, although demand was contained with near-term resistance at the 129.00 level and as German GDP data loomed, while there is also incoming supply, including a EUR 4.0bln Bobl issuance today and a EUR 3.0bln Bund issuance tomorrow.
• 10yr JGB futures were subdued amid the mostly positive risk appetite and a quiet calendar with a lack of tier-1 data for Japan.

• Crude futures marginally pulled back after ultimately gaining yesterday alongside the positive risk appetite, which helped markets shrug off the initial indecisiveness seen as Ukraine peace talks dominated the tape on Monday.
• Chinese President Xi said they are to enhance energy partnership and will ensure a smooth energy supply chain with Russia.
• Spot gold extended on its gains after a recent ascent to back above the USD 4100/oz level on increased Fed rate cut bets and a softer dollar.
• Copper futures continued the prior day's rebound amid the mostly positive risk appetite and following the Trump-Xi call.

• Bitcoin lacked conviction with price action choppy on both sides of the USD 88k level.
• Japan is to require crypto exchanges to set aside liability reserves, according to Nikkei.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• PBoC conducted a CNY 1tln Medium-term Lending Facility operation for a CNY 100bln net liquidity injection.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said she spoke with US President Trump on the phone after a phone call was proposed by the US side, and that Trump explained recent US-China relations following his call with Chinese President Xi. Furthermore, Trump told her that they are very close friends and that she could call him any time, while Takaichi believes they were able to confirm close cooperation between Japan and the US.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan has established a Japanese equivalent of the US Department of Government Efficiency to abolish ineffective subsidies.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said the government is to hold a cabinet meeting on the supplementary budget this Friday.

MIDDLE EAST

• Taliban spokesman Mujahid said aerial raids took place in the provinces of Kunar and Paktika, which injured four civilians, while it was announced that nine children were killed after Pakistani forces bombed the home of a local resident in the Khost province.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said current peace proposals contain fewer than 28 points after joint work and they will discuss sensitive topics of the peace plan with US President Trump, while he added that the peace framework includes "correct" points now and he urged Ukrainians to react to air alerts in the coming days, as well as stated that "we know who we are dealing with".
• US White House Press Secretary Leavitt said US and Ukraine talks have been productive and there are just a couple of points of disagreement, while she added that President Trump is optimistic that a deal can be struck.
• US is holding secret Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi with US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll meeting delegations from Kyiv and Moscow in a push for a deal to end Russia's invasion, according to FT.
• A barrage of Russian missiles struck Kyiv overnight, in what the Ukrainian Energy Minister described as a "massive" attack on energy infrastructure, while the Kyiv Mayor said that some areas were experiencing disruptions to power and water.
• Regional Governor said three people were killed and 10 injured in a Ukrainian attack on Russia's Rostov region.

OTHER

• Taiwan's Premier said Taiwan is a fully sovereign and independent country and that for Taiwan's 23mln people, a ‘return’ to China is not an option, while he added that maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is a development the whole world is watching closely. Furthermore, he said they must strengthen self-defence capabilities and must stand together with like-minded democratic countries. In relevant news, Taiwan's Defence Ministry said a Chinese balloon was detected in the Taiwan Strait on Monday.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said Japan's UN ambassador sent a letter to UN Secretary-General Guterres explaining Japan's stance on China's demand to withdraw PM Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan, while Kihara added that China’s claims that contradict the facts cannot be accepted, and Japan must firmly refute and communicate its position. It was separately reported that Japan's top foreign ministry official held talks with China's ambassador, according to Kyodo

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK Chancellor Reeves told Labour MPs “The Budget on Wednesday will be about three priorities: cutting the cost of living, cutting NHS waiting lists and cutting the cost of debt."
• UK Treasury asked banks to make public and prominent endorsements of the Budget this week, wanting lenders to praise new policies and show how they will boost lending to first-time buyers and small businesses, according to FT.
• ECB's Nagel said the current level of the Euro at 1.1600 is not cause for concern, while he added that food inflation remains stubborn. Nagel added that the ECB keeps an eye on strong price increases in services too, as well as noted that with December projections, they will see more clearly if the monetary policy stance remains appropriate.

• US Secretary of State Rubio said good progress had been made re. Ukraine, and none of the outstanding issues are insurmountable.
• European bourses opened stronger, but sentiment has waned a touch in recent trade; US equity futures are mixed.
• DXY is marginally subdued, EUR gains a touch amidst geopolitical progress whilst the JPY lags.
• Lacklustre trade across fixed income with USTs flat whilst Bunds are firmer by a handful of ticks.
• Oil complex has been pressured by progress on Ukrainian peace talks, XAU trades rangebound.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US National Activity Index (Oct), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov), Speakers including ECB’s Cipollone, Elderson & Lagarde, Supply from the US.

• White House is reportedly preparing a tariff fallback ahead of the court ruling, according to Bloomberg.
• US President Trump’s team was reported on Friday to internally float selling NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 chips to China, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. Trump’s team held internal talks about H200 chip shipments to China in recent days, although the sources stressed no final decision has been made, and it’s entirely possible that the idea remains an internal debate and never results in actual license approvals, which are required under export controls that Washington first imposed in 2022.
• EU plans to tighten foreign investment rules to prevent Chinese firms benefiting from the open market without contributing to local workers or tech transfer, according to FT.
• China welcomed more Italian companies to enter the Chinese market and hopes Italy will provide a fair, transparent, and non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese investment in Italy, according to Xinhua.
• Canadian PM Carney and German Chancellor Merz discussed partnerships in critical minerals, clean energy, AI, aerospace, energy and defence, while Carney also met with French President Macron, and it was stated that the leaders remained focused on key global priorities such as critical minerals, clean energy and AI. Furthermore, Carney said that he and Indian PM Modi launched negotiations for a trade deal that could more than double their trade to USD 70bln and separately commented that they are intensifying free trade negotiations with Mercosur.
• UK abolished its "de minimis" rules, which exclude cheap imports below GBP 135 from paying tariffs, according to a report on Friday by Sky News.
• EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says there have been productive talks with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and USTR Greer in the last two days, adds that there is more work to be done on steel talks with the US. Will discuss critical and raw materials with the US. On EU-India trade, he hopes to travel to India again soon.

• European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened stronger across the board, following on from a mostly firmer APAC session and as markets digested the latest geopolitical progress between Ukraine and Russia, whereby US Sec of State Rubio suggested "tremendous progress" has been made. However, as the morning progressed, a hefty bout of pressure took indices to session lows to now display a mixed picture in Europe - a move which lacked catalysts.
• European sectors opened with a clear cyclical bias. Autos, Travel & Leisure and Basic Resources lead whilst Energy underperforms as the oil complex remains pressure amidst the constructive geopolitical environment; a factor which has led to downside across Defence names, with the likes of Rheinmetall (-2%) on the backfoot.
• US equity futures (ES +0.1% NQ +0.3% RTY U/C) are mixed, with the NQ leading after the Tech sector outperformed in Asia overnight. Quiet newsflow from a US perspective, and with only some Tier 2 datapoints scheduled for today.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

• DXY is a little lower today and trades within a thin 100.08 to 100.29 range. Newsflow has been relatively quiet for the index this morning, but may pick-up later this week as Fed speak and the Fed's Beige Book will give further insight on the health of the economy.
• EUR/USD has picked up a touch since the European cash open, and has recently made a peak of 1.1540 vs the session low of 1.1503. No clear catalyst for the move itself, but potentially as markets digest the latest bout of geopolitical updates between Russia and Ukraine. Elsewhere, no move after a subdued German Ifo set, which saw Expectations slip below the lower end of analyst expectations.
• Muted price action also in GBP/USD, currently within a narrow 1.3086-1.3111 range. Price action this morning has been sideways, with newsflow light and as traders count down their clocks to Wednesday's UK Budget. Sky News recently outlined that the UK's OBR will reportedly say that growth is lower in 2026 and every Parliament year in the Budget. Pertinently, the Treasury hopes to surprise with bigger than expected headroom, an outcome that would be welcome by markets; as a reminder, consensus is in a broad GBP 10-20bln+ range for headroom, vs the GBP 9.9bln Reeves had last time.
• JPY is the underperformer today, likely thanks to the broader risk-tone, but with Japanese participants also away on holiday. Currently towards the upper end of a 156.43 to 156.93 range. Weekend newsflow has been light aside from commentary via Japanese government panel member, who suggested that PM Takaichi is open to JPY intervention. A report which has seemingly been shrugged off by markets, as the JPY continues to weaken.
• Antipodeans are mildly lower vs the Dollar, with no real catalysts driving things for the moment; focus remains on the RBNZ announcement on Wednesday, where a 25bps cut is widely expected.
• Barclays FX month-end rebalancing: strong USD buying against all majors.
• Click for NY OpEx Details

• Bond price action is lacklustre this morning. Overnight action was subdued as Japanese participants were away for holiday, and the European morning has lacked material newsflow to shift sentiment.
• USTs are trading rangebound in a tight 113-05+ to 113-09 range. Trade updates this morning have been non-incremental, with some focus on a Bloomberg piece suggesting that the White House is preparing a tariff fallback ahead of the court ruling. The rest of the day is fairly light, aside from some Tier 2 US data - more focus will be on the coming days, where markets will get more Fed speak, Retail Sales, Weekly Claims and the Beige Book.
• Bunds are firmer by a handful of ticks, but ultimately following the above and trades within a 128.81 to 129.00 range. This morning German paper saw a slight pick-up and attempted (but failed) to lift above the 129.00 mark, alongside pressure in WTI and Brent (spurred on by geopol progress). Thereafter, some sideways trade before then catching another slight bid, as the European risk tone slipped off best levels. Elsewhere, no move to a subdued German Ifo survey, which saw New Expectations slip below the most pessimistic of analyst expectations.
• Gilts opened higher by three ticks and now flat, echoing the bias in core peers. A lot of final weekend press reporting around the budget, the main developments focused on pensions. Earlier, Sky News reported that the OBR is set to lower the growth view for every parliamentary year, Chancellor Reeves reportedly to argue this is not due to the government (reminder, Reeves recently identified Brexit as the structural factor behind the challenging UK environment). Furthermore, the Treasury is said to be looking to surprise with bigger than expected headroom, an outcome that would be welcome by markets; as a reminder, consensus is in a broad GBP 10-20bln+ range for headroom, vs the GBP 9.9bln Reeves had last time.
• BTPs are firmer by 22 ticks at most, notching a 121.05 peak. Following Moody's upgrading Italy to Baa3 (prev. Baa2), Outlook Stable (prev. Positive) on Friday.
• OATs are firmer, but only modestly so, awaiting fiscal updates. On Friday, the Revenue section of the budget bill failed in the National Assembly. As such, the text now goes to the Senate and Parliament has until the 23rd of December to deliberate it. Now, attention turns to the Social Security Financing Bill, a joint committee set to rule on it on Wednesday before it then (if it passes) goes to the National Assembly and then Senate for approval. Politico sources report a "one in three chance" that the joint committee would approve it. Unsurprisingly, pension reform is the sticking point.
• German Finance Agency's Diemer says 2026 issuance is likely to exceed EUR 500bln, via Econostream. Adds: Same issuance structure in 2026 but with higher volumes. Higher term premia will be considered in determining the 2026 maturity profile. Confident that no mid-year revisions to issuance plans will be necessary. Will continue to use syndications in 2026 but will focus on longer maturities. Says that they see only very isolated structural demand for ultra long bonds, will not launch a strategic market presence there for the foreseeable future. Issuance in foreign currencies is not currently planned.

• WTI and Brent were initially rangebound, but saw negative downticks at the start of the European sessions, and then extended on that pressure taking the complex down to fresh session lows. Brent Feb'26 made a trough of US 61.34/bbl vs peak of USD 62.18/bbl. Downside today has been facilitated by the positive mood music via US Secretary of State Rubio, who suggested a meeting with Ukrainian officials had led to "tremendous progress".
• Dutch TTF Dec'25 has taken a hit following the talks in Geneva, trading below EUR 30/MWh for the first time since May 2024. After opening at EUR 30.06/MWh, Dutch TTF has faltered and remains near session lows at EUR 29.20/MWh.
• Spot XAU fell to a trough of USD 4040/oz at the start of the APAC session following the positive risk tone from the Geneva talks. However, XAU has turned around and is currently trading just shy of session highs at USD 4078/oz, benefitting in part from the risk tone souring a touch after the European open. Note, XAU in a thin sub-40/oz band.
• 3M LME Copper oscillated in a tight USD 10.77k-10.81k/t band to start the European session but briefly dipped to a trough of USD 10.75k/t as global equities pulled back from best, despite a lack of specific newsflow.
• A majority Chinese-owned plant at Indonesia’s most important nickel site is cutting back production due to its tailing site being nearly full, according to Bloomberg citing sources

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• German Ifo Expectations New (Nov) 90.6 vs. Exp. 91.5 (Prev. 91.6); Ifo Current Conditions New (Nov) 85.6 vs. Exp. 85.5 (Prev. 85.3); Ifo Business Climate New (Nov) 88.1 vs. Exp. 88.5 (Prev. 88.4)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK Chancellor Reeves is expected to further protect those on the national minimum wage at the Budget, according to the UK Treasury. It was also reported that Reeves will freeze rail fares in a cost-of-living push and the US is to extend EV subsidies to blunt the tax increase in the Budget, according to Bloomberg.
• UK Budget’s pensions tax raid to raise over GBP 3bln, while the expected move by Chancellor Reeves in the week ahead faces strong pushback from businesses, while she is preparing to lift the two-child benefit cap in the Budget, according to FT.
• UK and Indonesia agreed on a GBP 4bln maritime deal securing 1,000 jobs in the UK.
• ECB President Lagarde warned against viewing monetary policy as a solution to debt problems, implicitly rejecting recent suggestions from France’s far-right party that the ECB should relaunch large-scale asset purchases, according to Bloomberg.
• Moody’s affirmed the UK at Aa3; Outlook Stable, while it raised Italy’s sovereign rating by one notch from Baa3 to Baa2; Outlook Revised to Stable from Positive.
• UK's OBR will reportedly say that growth is lower in 2026 and every Parliament year in the Budget, via Sky News; Chancellor Reeves will argue that government decisions are not responsible. Treasury hopes to surprise with bigger than expected headroom.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump is expected to announce as early as Monday a general framework to address healthcare costs, proposed legislation would eliminate zero premium subsidies currently offered under the ACA, according to MS NOW. It was later reported that US President Trump is to sign an executive order on Monday at 16:00EST/21:00GMT.
• US President Trump said there is massive crime and rioting in the Chicago loop area, following an incident where 7 people were shot on Friday.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they are seeing prices get better and will see an announcement this week on healthcare costs, while he added that inflation is up because of services, not imported goods. Bessent said he expects some prices to come down in weeks and others in months. Furthermore, he said that Republicans should end the filibuster if Democrats close the government again, while he noted the government shutdown caused a USD 11bln permanent hit to US GDP.
• US President Trump's Department of Government Efficiency has disbanded with eight months left to its mandate.
• US Appeals Court rejected the Trump administration’s bid to expand rapid deportations.
• Texas officials asked the US Supreme Court to allow a pro-Republican electoral map that a lower court blocked.
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citi (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are among those that have been notified by SitusAMC that their client data may have been taken, according to NYT.

• Israel’s military said it killed a Hamas commander in Gaza City, while the Israeli military confirmed that Hezbollah military leader Ali Tabtabai was killed in an Israeli strike in southern Beirut.
• Canadian PM Carney and German Chancellor Merz discussed the situation in the Middle East and noted their support for the comprehensive peace plan to end the war in Gaza, while they reaffirmed support for Ukraine and underscored that any settlement must include Ukraine’s involvement.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said they are grateful for all efforts by US President Trump and the US to end the war. Zelensky said they also thank Europe, the G7 and the G20 for helping them protect lives, while they are working on every point and every step to achieve peace. Zelensky also commented that there are signals that the US team is hearing them.
• US President Trump said ‘no’ when asked if his offer is the final one for Ukraine. Trump separately commented that the Ukrainian leadership has expressed zero gratitude for our efforts and that Europe continues to buy oil from Russia.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said we’ve had the most productive and meaningful meeting so far and made good progress. Rubio said there is still some work left to do, and their teams will revert on Sunday night with more updates, while Rubio added this will have to be signed off by their presidents, but he is comfortable about that. Rubio later commented that they made a tremendous amount of progress and have a foundational document, while they were able to narrow down the points of the plan, but added that work remains to be done. Furthermore, he said they are much further ahead than when they began on Sunday morning and noted there are some outstanding issues involving the role of the EU and NATO, but stated that none of the outstanding issues are insurmountable.
• US official said that talks between US and Ukrainian officials so far have been productive and even conclusive in some areas, while it was also reported that US and Ukrainian officials were discussing a possible trip by Ukrainian President Zelensky to Washington to discuss the peace plan, possibly this week, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• European leaders’ summit on Ukraine stated that they believe the US 28-point peace plan required additional work and they are concerned by proposed limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces, while they are clear on the principle that Ukraine’s borders must not be changed by force.
• European counterproposal to the US’s Ukraine peace plan proposes that the Ukrainian military be capped at 800,000 in peacetime and stated that Ukraine joining NATO depends on the consensus of NATO members, which does not exist, while NATO agrees not to permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime. The counterproposal also stated that NATO jets will be stationed in Poland and Ukraine will receive a US guarantee that mirrors NATO’s Article 5, as well as noted that Ukraine will be compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates for damage to Ukraine. Furthermore, Ukraine commits not to recover its occupied sovereign territory through military means, while negotiations on territorial swaps will start from the line of contact, and Ukraine will hold elections as soon as possible after the signing of the peace agreement.
• White House readout stated there was an extensive and productive meeting with the Ukrainian delegation, while it added that the Ukrainian delegation affirmed all of their principal concerns and believes the current draft reflects their national interests. Furthermore, it stated Ukrainians underscored that the strengthened security guarantee architecture meaningfully addresses their core strategic requirements and they agreed to continue consultations as the agreements move toward final refinement.
• Nordic-Baltic Eight Leaders’ joint statement noted that they spoke with Ukrainian President Zelensky and stated that Russia has so far not committed to a ceasefire or any steps leading to peace, while they will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe’s defence to deter further Russian aggression.
• Russia’s Ryabkov said regarding chances of another Trump-Putin meeting that the issue is on the agenda and nothing can be ruled out, while he added that progress in building dialogue between Russia and the US is impressive and that contacts are yielding results.
• Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces took control of Petrivske in Ukraine’s Donetsk and took control of the Tikhe and Odradne regions in eastern Ukraine, according to TASS. It was also reported that Russian forces captured Nove Zaporizhzhia and Zvanivka in eastern Ukraine, according to RIA.
• Ukrainian drones struck a heat and electricity station in Moscow region’s Shatura, which caused a fire.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE UPDATES THIS MORNING

• Ukraine's Parliamentary speaker announces a series of Ukraine's red lines in negotiations in regards to the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
• Russia's Kremlin says no official information has been received from the Geneva talks and no meeting has been planned between Russia and the US this week.

OTHER

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said China urges Japan to reflect on and correct mistakes as soon as possible and not become obsessed, while he added that Japan’s leader sent a wrong signal of trying to intervene in the Taiwan issue by force and crossed the red line that should not be touched. Wang also said that if Japan continues down this path, countries have the right to re-examine Japan’s historical crimes. It was separately reported that a senior Japanese government spokeswoman said China’s claim that Japan has altered its position is entirely baseless, while Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi said during a visit to the island of Yonaguni in Okinawa that Japan is on track to deploy missiles to the island, which is near Taiwan.
• US is poised to start a new phase of Venezuela-related operations and is weighing options, including to overthrow Venezuela’s government, while covert operations are expected to come first, according to officials cited by Reuters.- Armed bandits kidnapped more than 300 students from a Catholic school in Nigeria on Friday, while it was reported on Sunday that fifty of the kidnapped students have escaped.
• White House said South Africa is refusing to facilitate a smooth transition of the G20 presidency and has weaponised its G20 presidency to undermine the G20’s founding principles.

• Bitcoin is a little lower and trades just shy of USD 86k whilst Ethereum holds around USD 2.8k.

• APAC stocks were mostly positive following last Friday's advances on Wall St, where sentiment was lifted as dovish comments from Fed's Williams rekindled December rate cut hopes, while 'tremendous' progress was said to have been made during Ukraine peace talks in Geneva on Sunday, although conditions were quiet amid a sparse overnight calendar and with Japanese markets closed for Labor Day.
• ASX 200 rallied at the open with outperformance in tech and industrials front running the advances, while there were also some M&A related headlines with Qube surging to a record high on Macquarie Asset Management's fresh AUD 11.6bln takeover proposal. Conversely, BHP shares were indecisive and eventually trickled lower after it was reported to have made a renewed approach for Anglo American, which was rejected, prompting BHP to abandon its pursuit again.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp Chinese markets are mixed with gains led by tech strength, although semiconductor names are pressured, including SMIC, following a report on Friday that US President Trump’s team was internally floating selling NVIDIA H200 chips to China.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoJ board member Masu said on Friday that the BoJ is 'close' to the decision to raise rates but can't say which month. Masu stated it is not good for real interest rates to be deeply negative and that Japan's policy rate is lower than the neutral rate, which he strongly believes they need to change quickly, while he said they won't wait until after the Spring wage talks to end in raising rates.
• Japan is said to be open to intervening in the currency market “to mitigate the side effects of a weak yen,” according to a government panel member.
• New Zealand PM Luxon vowed to increase the pension saving scheme, according to Bloomberg.

• APAC stocks mostly firmer following the Wall St. handover, though China was mixed amid reports of Trump selling NVIDIA chips to China.
• Fed's Collins says she has not made up her mind on December. Treasury Secretary Bessent said prices are getting better.
• DXY contained, EUR/USD bounced from 1.15, Cable rangebound, USD/JPY firmer but limited in holiday trade.
• USTs and Bunds contained after the moves seen on Friday; Crude is uneventful, XAU continues to fade.
• US' Rubio said good progress had been made re. Ukraine, and none of the outstanding issues are insurmountable.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo (Nov), US National Activity Index (Oct), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov), Speakers including ECB’s Cipollone, Elderson & Lagarde, Supply from the US.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

• US stocks rebounded on Friday and were largely supported by surprisingly dovish comments from Fed's Williams, who said that in his view, the Fed can still cut rates in the near term given current policy is modestly restrictive. The comment helped lift stocks and bonds with a dovish repricing in Fed money markets which saw as much as a 62% chance of a 25bps cut, but pared back a couple of bps after the BLS announced the Oct. CPI is cancelled and November CPI will be released after the December FOMC meeting, meaning the Fed will not have access to inflation or labour market data until after the confab.
• SPX +0.98% at 6,603, NDX +0.77% at 24,240, DJI +1.08% at 46,245, RUT +2.80% at 2,370.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• White House is reportedly preparing a tariff fallback ahead of the court ruling, according to Bloomberg.
• US President Trump’s team was reported on Friday to internally float selling NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 chips to China, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. Trump’s team held internal talks about H200 chip shipments to China in recent days, although the sources stressed no final decision has been made, and it’s entirely possible that the idea remains an internal debate and never results in actual license approvals, which are required under export controls that Washington first imposed in 2022.
• EU plans to tighten foreign investment rules to prevent Chinese firms benefiting from the open market without contributing to local workers or tech transfer, according to FT.
• China welcomed more Italian companies to enter the Chinese market and hopes Italy will provide a fair, transparent, and non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese investment in Italy, according to Xinhua.
• Canadian PM Carney and German Chancellor Merz discussed partnerships in critical minerals, clean energy, AI, aerospace, energy and defence, while Carney also met with French President Macron, and it was stated that the leaders remained focused on key global priorities such as critical minerals, clean energy and AI. Furthermore, Carney said that he and Indian PM Modi launched negotiations for a trade deal that could more than double their trade to USD 70bln and separately commented that they are intensifying free trade negotiations with Mercosur.
• UK abolished its "de minimis" rules, which exclude cheap imports below GBP 135 from paying tariffs, according to a report on Friday by Sky News.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) said she has not made up her mind about the December rate decision and still sees reasons to be hesitant about a cut, while she added that financial conditions are a tailwind for the economy and that the Fed’s mildly restrictive policy is appropriate.
• US President Trump is expected to announce as early as Monday a general framework to address healthcare costs, proposed legislation would eliminate zero premium subsidies currently offered under the ACA, according to MS NOW. It was later reported that US President Trump is to sign an executive order on Monday at 16:00EST/21:00GMT.
• US President Trump said there is massive crime and rioting in the Chicago loop area, following an incident where 7 people were shot on Friday.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they are seeing prices get better and will see an announcement this week on healthcare costs, while he added that inflation is up because of services, not imported goods. Bessent said he expects some prices to come down in weeks and others in months. Furthermore, he said that Republicans should end the filibuster if Democrats close the government again, while he noted the government shutdown caused a USD 11bln permanent hit to US GDP.
• US President Trump's Department of Government Efficiency has disbanded with eight months left to its mandate.
• US Appeals Court rejected the Trump administration’s bid to expand rapid deportations.
• Texas officials asked the US Supreme Court to allow a pro-Republican electoral map that a lower court blocked.
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citi (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are among those that have been notified by SitusAMC that their client data may have been taken, according to NYT.

• APAC stocks were mostly positive following last Friday's advances on Wall St, where sentiment was lifted as dovish comments from Fed's Williams rekindled December rate cut hopes, while 'tremendous' progress was said to have been made during Ukraine peace talks in Geneva on Sunday, although conditions were quiet amid a sparse overnight calendar and with Japanese markets closed for Labor Day.
• ASX 200 rallied at the open with outperformance in tech and industrials front running the advances, while there were also some M&A related headlines with Qube surging to a record high on Macquarie Asset Management's fresh AUD 11.6bln takeover proposal. Conversely, BHP shares were indecisive and eventually trickled lower after it was reported to have made a renewed approach for Anglo American, which was rejected, prompting BHP to abandon its pursuit again.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp Chinese markets are mixed with gains led by tech strength, although semiconductor names are pressured, including SMIC, following a report on Friday that US President Trump’s team was internally floating selling NVIDIA H200 chips to China.
• US equity futures extended on Friday's gains with the help of trade and geopolitical optimism, as well as rate cut hopes.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.9% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.0% on Friday.

• DXY traded little changed amid the lack of major catalysts stateside and as the dovish rhetoric last Friday from Fed's Williams was offset by remarks from Fed’s Collins, who said she has not made up her mind about the December rate decision and still sees reasons to be hesitant about a cut, as well as noted that the Fed’s mildly restrictive policy is appropriate.
• EUR/USD returned to flat territory after bouncing off a floor near the 1.1500 level ahead of several ECB speakers.
• GBP/USD price action was kept within tight parameters as the pair eyed a retest of the 1.3100 level to the upside, while the focus in the UK this week is on Chancellor Reeves's Budget announcement due on Wednesday.
• USD/JPY marginally edged higher alongside the mostly positive risk appetite in Asia-Pac, but with further upside contained amid the absence of Japanese participants for a holiday.
• Antipodeans were rangebound with NZD slightly lagging against its trans-Tasman counterpart ahead of a widely expected 25bps rate cut by the RBNZ at its meeting on Wednesday.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0847 vs exp. 7.1162 (Prev. 7.0875).
• SNB President Schlegel said uncertainty is poison for the economy and that 15% tariffs are better than 39% for Switzerland, while he added that Switzerland still has a lot of gold on an international basis.

• 10yr UST futures took a breather and held onto last Friday's gains after dovish comments by Fed's Williams stoked Fed rate cut hopes, while price action was contained with overnight cash treasuries trade shut due to Labor Day in Japan.
• Bund futures traded little changed ahead of German Ifo data and several ECB speakers, while ECB's Lagarde pushed back against recent suggestions that the ECB should relaunch large-scale asset purchases, in which she stated that monetary policy cannot solve debt problems.

• Crude futures were uneventful with price action contained amid a lack of major energy-related newsflow and following Ukraine peace talks in Geneva on Sunday, which US Secretary of State Rubio said made tremendous progress.
• World oil majors are returning to Libya as they hunt for new energy reserves and with Tripoli launching its first exploration auction in 18 years, according to FT.
• Spot gold continued its retreat from resistance at the USD 4,100/oz level with demand sapped amid the mostly positive risk appetite in the Asia-Pac region.
• Copper futures traded rangebound near the USD 5.00/lb level following last Friday's risk-fuelled rebound.

• Bitcoin was choppy overnight and traded on both sides of the USD 87k level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoJ board member Masu said on Friday that the BoJ is 'close' to the decision to raise rates but can't say which month. Masu stated it is not good for real interest rates to be deeply negative and that Japan's policy rate is lower than the neutral rate, which he strongly believes they need to change quickly, while he said they won't wait until after the Spring wage talks to end in raising rates.
• Japan is said to be open to intervening in the currency market “to mitigate the side effects of a weak yen,” according to a government panel member.
• New Zealand PM Luxon vowed to increase the pension saving scheme, according to Bloomberg.

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel’s military said it killed a Hamas commander in Gaza City, while the Israeli military confirmed that Hezbollah military leader Ali Tabtabai was killed in an Israeli strike in southern Beirut.
• Canadian PM Carney and German Chancellor Merz discussed the situation in the Middle East and noted their support for the comprehensive peace plan to end the war in Gaza, while they reaffirmed support for Ukraine and underscored that any settlement must include Ukraine’s involvement.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said they are grateful for all efforts by US President Trump and the US to end the war. Zelensky said they also thank Europe, the G7 and the G20 for helping them protect lives, while they are working on every point and every step to achieve peace. Zelensky also commented that there are signals that the US team is hearing them.
• US President Trump said ‘no’ when asked if his offer is the final one for Ukraine. Trump separately commented that the Ukrainian leadership has expressed zero gratitude for our efforts and that Europe continues to buy oil from Russia.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said we’ve had the most productive and meaningful meeting so far and made good progress. Rubio said there is still some work left to do, and their teams will revert on Sunday night with more updates, while Rubio added this will have to be signed off by their presidents, but he is comfortable about that. Rubio later commented that they made a tremendous amount of progress and have a foundational document, while they were able to narrow down the points of the plan, but added that work remains to be done. Furthermore, he said they are much further ahead than when they began on Sunday morning and noted there are some outstanding issues involving the role of the EU and NATO, but stated that none of the outstanding issues are insurmountable.
• US official said that talks between US and Ukrainian officials so far have been productive and even conclusive in some areas, while it was also reported that US and Ukrainian officials were discussing a possible trip by Ukrainian President Zelensky to Washington to discuss the peace plan, possibly this week, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• European leaders’ summit on Ukraine stated that they believe the US 28-point peace plan required additional work and they are concerned by proposed limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces, while they are clear on the principle that Ukraine’s borders must not be changed by force.
• European counterproposal to the US’s Ukraine peace plan proposes that the Ukrainian military be capped at 800,000 in peacetime and stated that Ukraine joining NATO depends on the consensus of NATO members, which does not exist, while NATO agrees not to permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime. The counterproposal also stated that NATO jets will be stationed in Poland and Ukraine will receive a US guarantee that mirrors NATO’s Article 5, as well as noted that Ukraine will be compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates for damage to Ukraine. Furthermore, Ukraine commits not to recover its occupied sovereign territory through military means, while negotiations on territorial swaps will start from the line of contact, and Ukraine will hold elections as soon as possible after the signing of the peace agreement.
• White House readout stated there was an extensive and productive meeting with the Ukrainian delegation, while it added that the Ukrainian delegation affirmed all of their principal concerns and believes the current draft reflects their national interests. Furthermore, it stated Ukrainians underscored that the strengthened security guarantee architecture meaningfully addresses their core strategic requirements and they agreed to continue consultations as the agreements move toward final refinement.
• Nordic-Baltic Eight Leaders’ joint statement noted that they spoke with Ukrainian President Zelensky and stated that Russia has so far not committed to a ceasefire or any steps leading to peace, while they will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe’s defence to deter further Russian aggression.
• Russia’s Ryabkov said regarding chances of another Trump-Putin meeting that the issue is on the agenda and nothing can be ruled out, while he added that progress in building dialogue between Russia and the US is impressive and that contacts are yielding results.
• Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces took control of Petrivske in Ukraine’s Donetsk and took control of the Tikhe and Odradne regions in eastern Ukraine, according to TASS. It was also reported that Russian forces captured Nove Zaporizhzhia and Zvanivka in eastern Ukraine, according to RIA.
• Ukrainian drones struck a heat and electricity station in Moscow region’s Shatura, which caused a fire.

OTHER

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said China urges Japan to reflect on and correct mistakes as soon as possible and not become obsessed, while he added that Japan’s leader sent a wrong signal of trying to intervene in the Taiwan issue by force and crossed the red line that should not be touched. Wang also said that if Japan continues down this path, countries have the right to re-examine Japan’s historical crimes. It was separately reported that a senior Japanese government spokeswoman said China’s claim that Japan has altered its position is entirely baseless, while Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi said during a visit to the island of Yonaguni in Okinawa that Japan is on track to deploy missiles to the island, which is near Taiwan.
• US is poised to start a new phase of Venezuela-related operations and is weighing options, including to overthrow Venezuela’s government, while covert operations are expected to come first, according to officials cited by Reuters.- Armed bandits kidnapped more than 300 students from a Catholic school in Nigeria on Friday, while it was reported on Sunday that fifty of the kidnapped students have escaped.
• White House said South Africa is refusing to facilitate a smooth transition of the G20 presidency and has weaponised its G20 presidency to undermine the G20’s founding principles.

• Brazilian federal police took former president Bolsonaro into custody after being determined a flight risk, according to BBC.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK Chancellor Reeves is expected to further protect those on the national minimum wage at the Budget, according to the UK Treasury. It was also reported that Reeves will freeze rail fares in a cost-of-living push and the US is to extend EV subsidies to blunt the tax increase in the Budget, according to Bloomberg.
• UK Budget’s pensions tax raid to raise over GBP 3bln, while the expected move by Chancellor Reeves in the week ahead faces strong pushback from businesses, while she is preparing to lift the two-child benefit cap in the Budget, according to FT.
• UK and Indonesia agreed on a GBP 4bln maritime deal securing 1,000 jobs in the UK.
• ECB President Lagarde warned against viewing monetary policy as a solution to debt problems, implicitly rejecting recent suggestions from France’s far-right party that the ECB should relaunch large-scale asset purchases, according to Bloomberg.
• Moody’s affirmed the UK at Aa3; Outlook Stable, while it raised Italy’s sovereign rating by one notch from Baa3 to Baa2; Outlook Revised to Stable from Positive.

• JPMorgan and Standard Chartered no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, vs prior forecast of a 25bp cut.
• European bourses entirely in the red, with AEX underperforming as Tech plays catch-up to Thursday’s NVIDIA losses; US equity futures are mixed today, with NVIDIA -1.5% in pre-market trade.
• DXY is mildly firmer, JPY outperforms on haven flows, jawboning and data metrics which play in favour of further BoJ normalisation. Bloomberg reported that Japan may intervene before USD/JPY reaches 160.
• Bonds firmer, benefiting from the risk tone; additional impetus from European and UK data.
• Crude complex pressured on constructive Russia/Ukraine reports, XAU is mildly lower.
• Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs (Nov), US Real Weekly Earnings (Sep), Canadian Retail Sales (Sep), US Uni. of Michigan (Nov), Moody’s on the UK & Italy, ECB’s Nagel; Fed’s Williams, Barr, Jefferson, Logan; SNB’s Schlegel.

• US President Trump signed an order modifying the scope of tariffs on Brazil, stating that certain agricultural products will not be subject to the additional ad valorem duty imposed under Executive Order 14323, according to the White House. Bloomberg reported that Trump has expanded his reductions of certain food tariffs by extending them to the 40% surcharge placed on Brazil over the Bolsonaro case, noting that last week’s exemptions did not apply to that portion of the tariffs. White House said US President Trump's order on Brazilian imports removes tariffs announced on July 30th on imports of Brazilian beef, coffee, and orange juice.
• EU Trade Commissioner said momentum is improving on the Australia–EU trade deal and expects another round of talks early next year, according to Reuters.

• European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) have opened lower across the board, as Europe plays catch-up to the hefty losses seen on Wall St, where NVIDIA fell into negative territory - erasing all of its initial post-earnings strength. AEX (-1.5%) underperforms in Europe with ASML sinking nearly 6%.
• European sectors are broadly in the red, with a clear defensive bias given the risk tone. Energy is hampered by pressure in the oil complex amidst constructive Russia-Ukraine developments. Basic Resources and Tech have been hit by the risk tone.
• US equity futures (ES U/C NQ -0.2% RTY +0.2%) are mixed, but with underperformance in the NQ as NVIDIA (-1.5%) continues to dip in the pre-market; contracts are off worst levels, as NVIDIA attempts to scale back early pre-market losses north of 3%. Moreover, several banks have continued to scale back bets for a December cut, namely Standard Chartered and JPMorgan.
• Note, US stocks on Thursday saw their sharpest intraday reversal since April, with the Nasdaq-100 sliding nearly 5% from its session high before benchmarks hit two-month lows. With no clear trigger, traders floated multiple theories to explain the abrupt selloff, including: doubts that AI projects are generating enough revenue or profit to justify heavy spending; a strong delayed September jobs report; concerns about lofty equity valuations; rising volatility ahead of Friday’s major options expiration; Bitcoin’s drop to a six-month low signalling risk-off sentiment.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

• DXY is flat/modestly firmer today and trades at the lower end of a 99.98 to 110.26 range. Not much driving things for the index this morning, focus remains firmly on the NFP report in the prior session, which led to some major banks adjusting their calls for a December rate cut. JPMorgan no longer sees a cut in December; Standard Chartered also looks for unchanged, instead favouring a Q1'26 move, likely January. Money markets currently assign a 27% chance of a Dec. cut. Focus ahead now on US Flash PMIs and UoM Sentiment data. Most recently, the USD has picked up a touch and continues to make fresh highs - seemingly as the risk tone continues to deteriorate. Nothing fresh to explain the dip in sentiment, but comes as NVIDIA continues to slip in the pre-market, hawkish Fed re-pricing, and negative growth implications of European PMIs.
• EUR is a little lower and trades within a 1.1514 to 1.1552 range. Some choppy two-way action on the French/German PMI metrics, before then moving lower as the USD attempts to move higher in recent trade. To recap the PMI figures, the EZ-wide PMI didn't have much impact as the woes for the manufacturing sector were clearly illustrated by France and Germany before. HCOB notes that, for France in particular, the political instability in the region is weighing and is expected to remain complicated, "meaning that the EZ is unlikely to receive any positive impetus from this quarter in the short term". In terms of price action, EUR/USD moved a touch lower on the French figures (which were weaker across the board), before then moving higher on the German metrics (strong across the board).
• GBP is a little lower vs USD, with much of the downside seen in recent trade amidst some broader Dollar demand; currently at the bottom of a 1.3051 to 1.3102 range. Earlier, UK PMIs were mixed - Services missed expectations, whilst Manufacturing surprisingly climbed into expansionary territory; nonetheless, Composite dipped more than expected. The inner report suggested that the "debate will shift further away from inflation worries toward the need to support the struggling economy, hence adding to the chances of interest rates being cut in December".
• JPY the strongest G10 currency, buoyed by the risk tone and comments via Finance Minister Katayama, who suggested that intervention was on the table. USD/JPY traded within a 157.10-157.54 range, before edging to fresh session lows at 156.57 as the risk tone deteriorated in the European morning. Japanese nationwide CPI printed in-line with expectations, with PMIs also constructive; the internal PMI report suggested that "inflation remains a key concern". Figures which play in favour of a hike in December. On fiscal developments, Japan’s cabinet approved a JPY 21.3tln economic stimulus package (vs expectations of JPY 20–21.3tln), with JPY 17.7tln in fresh spending via the extra budget and an overall impact of JPY 42.58tln, according to Bloomberg.
• Antipodeans are mixed, with the Kiwi marginally firmer whilst the Aussie remains pressured. Overnight activity currencies were buoyed by an improving risk tone - and were unreactive to the region's own data figures. This morning has seen a scaling back of initial upside, as the risk tone dips.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0875 vs exp. 7.1154 (Prev. 7.0905)
• Click for NY OpEx Details

• Fixed firmer this morning and climbing as the risk tone deteriorates.
• USTs at a 113-10+ peak with gains of 14 ticks at most. Specifics for the US light, strength in USTs derived from the increasingly risk-off tone seen across markets with NVIDIA once again a primary driver. If the move continues, we look to resistance at 113-18+ from the last week of October before 113-29, the figure and then 114-02. Today's docket features Real Weekly earnings for September, Flash November PMIs and several Fed speakers. Text expected from Williams, Barr, Jefferson & Logan in addition to TV appearances from Collins and Miran.
• Bunds bid given the tone, in-fitting with USTs. In addition, the complex benefits from a poor set of Flash PMIs which speak to tepid economic performance and ongoing political concerns. For the ECB, the data is unlikely to change much as the inflation-related components were subject to two-way movements and we await the December forecasts. Bunds as high as 129.09, firmer by 47 ticks at most. If the move continues, we look to 129.40 from November 13th.
• Gilts opened with gains of 11 ticks after weak Retail Sales data, despite the offsetting influence of PSNB. Additionally, and as outlined above, the risk tone is playing a role. As such, the benchmark is firmer by just over 50 ticks at best, notching a 92.43 peak, eyeing the WTD high of 92.60.
• The Retail Sales data is itself unlikely to move the dial for the BoE, as Governor Bailey is focused on inflation and caveats apply to the series re. Black Friday and the Budget. However, the subsequent PMI release highlighted increased growth concerns and a "real chance that this pause may turn into a downturn", points that factor in-favour of further BoE easing, and moves some of the focus away from inflation in assessing the BoE's near-term outlook; BoE pricing unreactive, remains around an 83% chance of a cut.

• WTI and Brent Jan'26 trends lower from USD 58.80/bbl to 57.50/bbl and USD 63.02/bbl to USD 61.98/bbl, respectively, as the global risk tone weakens and further reporting on the 28-point peace plan. Reported by Axios, Kyiv would have to give up additional territory in the east, cap the size of its military, and agree that it will never join NATO. On Ukrainian security, Kyiv would be given a guarantee modelled on NATO's Article 5, which would commit the US and European allies to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the "transatlantic community".
• Spot XAU has grinded lower from a peak of USD 4089/oz to a trough of USD 4023/oz before paring back earlier losses to USD 4063/oz as the market continues to consolidate above USD 4k/oz. Despite the recent choppiness in XAU, investors still see further upside in the yellow metal driven by further Fed rate cuts, persistent geopolitical uncertainties and rising fiscal concerns.
• 3M LME Copper is ultimately trading lower as it follows the global risk tone. The red metal initially followed on from Thursday's selloff, forming a low at USD 10.66k/t before bouncing to a peak of USD 10.72k/t. As the session continues, 3M LME Copper has fallen back to new session lows and remains near lows at USD 10.64k/t.
• Global crude steel output fell 5.9% Y/Y in October and China's crude steel output fell 12.1% Y/Y, according to World Steel.

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov) -19.0 vs. Exp. -18.0 (Prev. -17.0)
• UK Retail Sales MM (Oct) -1.1% (Exp. 0.0%, Prev. 0.5%, Rev. 0.7%); Ex-Fuel YY (Oct) 1.2% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.3%, Rev. 1.7%); YY (Oct) 0.2% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.5%, Rev. 1.0%); Ex-Fuel MM (Oct) -1.0% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.6%, Rev. 0.7%)
• UK PSNB Ex Banks GBP (Oct) 17.434B GB vs. Exp. 15.0B GB (Prev. 20.246B GB, Rev. 19.894B GB); PSNCR, GBP (Oct) 20.825B GB (Prev. -10.862B GB, Rev. -10.782B GB)
• EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Nov) 52.4 vs. Exp. 52.5 (Prev. 52.5); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Nov) 49.7 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50); Services Flash PMI (Nov) 53.1 vs. Exp. 53 (Prev. 53)
• French HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Nov) 49.9 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 47.7); Services Flash PMI (Nov) 50.8 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 48); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Nov) 47.8 vs. Exp. 49 (Prev. 48.8)
• German HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Nov) 52.1 vs. Exp. 53.7 (Prev. 53.9); Services Flash PMI (Nov) 52.7 vs. Exp. 54 (Prev. 54.6); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Nov) 48.4 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 49.6)
• UK Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.2 vs. Exp. 49.1 (Prev. 49.7); Services PMI (Nov) 50.5 vs. Exp. 51.9 (Prev. 52.3); Composite PMI (Nov) 50.5 vs. Exp. 51.8 (Prev. 52.2)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• NBH's Virag has quit, Bloomberg reports citing the NBH; to be replaced with Banai. Virag will now be an advisor to the Governor.
• ECB's Lagarde says the ECB will continue to adjust policy as needed to ensure that inflation remains at the 2% target. Internal barriers in services and good markets are equivalent to tariffs of around 100% and 65% respectively.
• SNB's Tschudin says inflation will rise slightly in upcoming quarters.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Fed should keep going with its cutting cycle and should be looking at the data, via Bloomberg.
• Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) said she is approaching the December rate decision cautiously and that the September labour-market report was encouraging overall, though she remains, on balance, more worried about the labour market than inflation. She said rate cuts so far have been appropriate but each one raises the bar for the next, and with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment, monetary policy must walk a fine line. She expects to learn a lot between now and the December meeting and said her longer-term policy thinking is focused on balancing inflation and labour-market risks. Paulson said the US economy is doing OK, but aggregate growth is unusually dependent on high-income earners and is particularly sensitive to equity valuations. She added that tariff effects are smaller than feared and that the overall demand environment is helping contain inflation, according to Reuters.
• JPMorgan no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, vs its prior forecast of a 25bp cut.
• Standard Chartered no longer expects the Fed to cut by 25bps in December following the jobs data; expects a Q1-2206 cut, most likely January (prev. forecast no 2026 cuts)
• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is bracing for possible economic headwinds in catching up to a resurgent Google (GOOGL), according to The Information. He told colleagues last month that Google’s recent AI progress could “create some temporary economic headwinds” for OpenAI, and the company’s narrowing tech lead and rising cash-burn projections have raised questions among investors.
• Republican senators have been privately lobbying US President Trump to support a limited short-term extension of Obamacare subsidies, according to Punchbowl. Adds that save the GOP from a 2026 drubbing and buy time for Congress to pass a more favourable longer-term health care plan. Multiple GOP senators were set to meet with US President Trump on Thursday, but the meeting was cancelled for unrelated reasons.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump’s 28-point plan for peace in Ukraine would force Kyiv to give up additional territory in the east, cap the size of its military, and agree never to join NATO, according to a draft obtained by Axios.
• US President Trump's peace plan for Ukraine includes a security guarantee modelled on NATO's Article 5, which would commit the US & European allies to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the "transatlantic community", via Axios.
• US officials reportedly intend to brief EU ambassadors in Kyiv on the draft peace proposal, via Reuters citing sources.
• European officials are reportedly still analysing the US-Russia peace proposal re. Ukraine, via FT; a diplomat cited says it "basically means capitulation [to Moscow]", another said the focus is to "...work for a more reasonable outcome".
• UK PM Starmer, German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron and Ukrainian President Zelensky is to hold a call today at 11:00GMT, via Bloomberg.

• Bitcoin has sunk below USD 85k, posting losses north of 10% to currently trade at USD 82.5k; a move which appeared to weigh on global sentiment.

• APAC stocks traded lower across the board as the sharp Wall Street selloff reverberated through the region despite the absence of fresh catalysts.
• ASX 200 was dragged down by all sectors, with gold and mining leading declines; tech held up relatively better alongside defensive names.
• Nikkei 225 slipped at the open, pressured by mining and metals, while financials found some relief as yields eased off highs. No move was seen on the budget, which came in line with expectations.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both opened softer but recovered to trade firmer, though still reflecting the cautious global tone.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Japan’s cabinet approved a JPY 21.3tln economic stimulus package (vs expectations of JPY 20–21.3tln), with JPY 17.7tln in fresh spending via the extra budget and an overall impact of JPY 42.58tln, according to Bloomberg. Japan PM Takaichi said new bonds will be issued to fund the package if tax revenue falls short, but total JGB issuance will be smaller than last year, adding that sustainable state finances must be achieved through economic growth, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she will take appropriate action if there are excessive FX moves, noting that FX intervention is an option as it was mentioned in the Japan–US agreement in September. She said the government will issue debt to fund part of the stimulus package as needed, is not trying to increase the size of spending, and is alarmed by recent one-sided and rapid foreign-exchange moves, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she is closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency and will take appropriate action based on the US–Japan forex agreement. She declined to comment on FX levels, noted that recent moves have been sharp and one-sided, and stressed that currencies should move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. She said that at her meeting with BoJ Governor Ueda and the Economy Minister, Ueda explained the BoJ will gradually adjust monetary support in line with economic and price improvements, adding that specific policy decisions are up to the BoJ. She said the three officials also reaffirmed they will coordinate closely on market developments, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said JGB yields move based on domestic economic, price and monetary-policy developments, fiscal conditions, and overseas market moves. She added that Japan will guide appropriate debt-management policy to ensure it does not lose market trust in its finances, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan is only halfway toward achieving sustainable, stable price increases accompanied by wage gains. She also said Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio should edge down from last year, even after an extra budget for the stimulus package, according to Reuters.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said a weak JPY lifts import prices and contributes to higher consumer inflation, and that FX moves may have a larger impact on prices given current conditions. He said companies are increasingly willing to raise wages and prices, noted he is mindful that FX moves could affect inflation expectations and underlying inflation, and said the BoJ will scrutinise the impact of FX volatility on prices, according to Reuters.
• Japan may intervene before USD/JPY reaches 160, according to Bloomberg, citing a government panellist.
• Foxconn (2317 TT) said it will launch a joint venture with Intrinsic to build an AI factory and plans to invest USD 2–3bln per year in AI. Foxconn and OpenAI will also collaborate to strengthen US manufacturing across the AI supply chain, with OpenAI receiving early access to evaluate Foxconn’s systems and an option to purchase them, according to Reuters.
• Foxconn’s (2317 TT) VisionBay AI unit said it plans to deploy 27MW using NVDA’s GB300 chips in the first half of 2026. This will be Taiwan’s largest advanced GPU cluster and the first GB300 AI datacenter in APAC, according to Reuters.
• Singapore raised its 2025 GDP growth estimate to around 4%, from the previous 1.5–2.5%, according to Reuters.
• Japan's Finance Minister Katayama says she can't comment on expected size of additional bond issuance to fund the latest package. She believes markets have stabilised after various announcement. Also adds that she doesn't believe the latest package is sufficiently big to ignite demand driven inflation.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese CPI, Core Nationwide YY (Oct) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.9%)
• Japanese CPI Ex Fresh Food & Energy (Oct) 3.10% (Prev. 3.00%)
• Japanese CPI, Overall Nationwide (Oct) 3.0% (Prev. 2.9%)
• Japanese CPI Index Ex Fresh Food (Oct) 112.1 (Prev. 111.4)
• Japanese Imports YY (Oct) 0.7% vs. Exp. -0.7% (Prev. 3.0%)
• Japanese Exports YY (Oct) 3.6% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 4.2%)
• Japanese Trade Balance Total Yen (Oct) -231.8B vs. Exp. -280.1B (Prev. -237.4B)
• Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Flash SA (Nov) 52.0 (Prev. 51.5); "Inflation remains a key concern”.
• Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Flash SA (Nov) 53.1 (Prev. 53.1)
• Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash SA (Nov) 48.8 (Prev. 48.2)
• Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Nov) 52.6 (Prev. 52.1)
• Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov) 52.7 (Prev. 52.5)
• Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Nov) 51.6 (Prev. 49.7)
• South Korean PPI Growth YY (Oct) 1.5% (Prev. 1.2%, Rev. 1.2%)
• South Korean PPI Growth MM (Oct) 0.2% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.4%)
• New Zealand Annual Trade Balance (Oct) -2.28B (Prev. -2.25B, Rev. -2.39B)
• New Zealand Trade Balance (Oct) -1542.0M (Prev. -1355.0M, Rev. -1384M)
• New Zealand Imports (Oct) 8.04B (Prev. 7.18B, Rev. 7.17B)
• New Zealand Exports (Oct) 6.5B (Prev. 5.82B, Rev. 5.78B)

• APAC stocks traded lower across the board as the sharp Wall Street selloff reverberated through the region despite the absence of fresh catalysts.
• JPMorgan no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, vs its prior forecast of a 25bp cut.
• 10yr JGB futures retraced some of this week's losses whilst the session saw a slew of commentary from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who, on the bond market, attempted to alleviate some fiscal woes.
• Japan may intervene before USD/JPY reaches 160, according to Bloomberg, citing a government panellist.
• Crypto markets continue bleeding with Bitcoin falling under USD 85,500 at a 7-month low, while Ethereum fell to a 4-month low.
• Looking ahead, UK PSNB (Oct), Retail Sales (Oct), EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs (Nov), US Real Weekly Earnings (Sep), Canadian Retail Sales (Sep), US Uni. of Michigan (Nov), Euro Area Indicator of Negotiated Wage Rates (Q3), Moody’s on the UK & Italy, ECB’s de Guindos, Lagarde, Nagel; Fed’s Williams, Barr, Jefferson, Logan; SNB’s Schlegel.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

• US stocks ended with heavy selling. Initially, markets saw notable risk on sentiment, with US indices seeing extensive gains, high beta FX outperforming, and the crude complex strengthening, which came after a stellar NVIDIA (NVDA) report and guidance. Thereafter, markets turned, although the risk-off had no fresh driver. AI valuations remain a concern, even after the strong NVDA report, while Goldman Sachs warned Wednesday of USD 39bln in equity sales from trend-following hedge funds after the SPX fell to sub 6,725 on Monday.
• SPX -1.56% at 6,539, NDX -2.38% at 24,054, DJI -0.84% at 45,752, RUT -1.82% at 2,305.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Fed should keep going with its cutting cycle and should be looking at the data, via Bloomberg.
• Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said part of the Fed’s job is to be the steady hand, noting that the Fed set a 2% inflation target and that 3% inflation is too high, calling the 2% goal a sacred promise. He said inflation seems to have stalled and that he is a little uneasy about inflation, uneasy about front-loading rate cuts, and uneasy about relying on “transitory” inflation. He said official data is a mess because “the lights went out,” and that in the dark he was more paranoid about inflation due to less available information. Goolsbee noted a notable slowdown in job creation but said he is dubious that the payroll slowdown points to recession; he described the current low-hiring, low-firing environment as a sign of uncertainty. He said the boom in data centres makes it harder to gauge the business cycle, warned that AI investment raises concerns about a possible bubble, and said 50-year mortgage rates could reduce the impact of monetary-policy decisions, according to Reuters.
• Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) reiterated he is uneasy about front-loading rate cuts before knowing whether the inflation uptick is transitory. He said he is not hawkish over the medium term and believes rates will ultimately settle well below current levels. After the Fed’s September cut he felt just one more cut would be needed for 2025, and when he voted for the October cut he assumed the job market was cooling gradually.
• Fed’s Cook (voter) said not all market volatility is problematic, adding that one major vulnerability is maturity mismatch in hedge-fund Treasury-securities trading strategies, according to Reuters.
• Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) said she is approaching the December rate decision cautiously and that the September labour-market report was encouraging overall, though she remains, on balance, more worried about the labour market than inflation. She said rate cuts so far have been appropriate but each one raises the bar for the next, and with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment, monetary policy must walk a fine line. She expects to learn a lot between now and the December meeting and said her longer-term policy thinking is focused on balancing inflation and labour-market risks. Paulson said the US economy is doing OK, but aggregate growth is unusually dependent on high-income earners and is particularly sensitive to equity valuations. She added that tariff effects are smaller than feared and that the overall demand environment is helping contain inflation, according to Reuters.
• JPMorgan no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, vs its prior forecast of a 25bp cut.
• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is bracing for possible economic headwinds in catching up to a resurgent Google (GOOGL), according to The Information. He told colleagues last month that Google’s recent AI progress could “create some temporary economic headwinds” for OpenAI, and the company’s narrowing tech lead and rising cash-burn projections have raised questions among investors.

DELAYED DATA UPDATE

• Federal Reserve scheduled Industrial Production and Factory orders data for 3rd December at 09:15EST/14:15GMT.

DATA RECAP

• US 30-year fixed rate mortgage (Nov 20th): 6.26% (prev. 6.24%)

• US President Trump signed an order modifying the scope of tariffs on Brazil, stating that certain agricultural products will not be subject to the additional ad valorem duty imposed under Executive Order 14323, according to the White House. Bloomberg reported that Trump has expanded his reductions of certain food tariffs by extending them to the 40% surcharge placed on Brazil over the Bolsonaro case, noting that last week’s exemptions did not apply to that portion of the tariffs. White House said US President Trump's order on Brazilian imports removes tariffs announced on July 30th on imports of Brazilian beef, coffee, and orange juice.
• EU Trade Commissioner said momentum is improving on the Australia–EU trade deal and expects another round of talks early next year, according to Reuters.

• APAC stocks traded lower across the board as the sharp Wall Street selloff reverberated through the region despite the absence of fresh catalysts.
• ASX 200 was dragged down by all sectors, with gold and mining leading declines; tech held up relatively better alongside defensive names.
• Nikkei 225 slipped at the open, pressured by mining and metals, while financials found some relief as yields eased off highs. No move was seen on the budget, which came in line with expectations.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both opened softer but recovered to trade firmer, though still reflecting the cautious global tone.
• US equity futures consolidated after Thursday’s heavy selloff, with the ES finding support around 6,550 and the NQ stabilising near the 24,000 area.
• European equity futures are indicative of a lower cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5% after cash closed +0.3% on Thursday.

• DXY held flat in a tight 100.08–100.22 band amid a lack of fresh overnight drivers, following a relatively stable Thursday session despite the equity sell-off. The index stayed comfortably within yesterday’s 100.02–100.36 parameters.
• EUR/USD was uneventful in a quiet session with no major catalysts as traders positioned ahead of the Eurozone Flash PMIs.
• GBP/USD remained capped below 1.3100, with UK-specific newsflow light and caution setting in ahead of next week’s Budget. UK Retail Sales and Flash PMIs were in focus to close out the week.
• USD/JPY was choppy within a tight range between 157.10-157.54 despite extensive verbal intervention from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who suggested that they take appropriate action if FX moves excessively, whilst FX intervention is an option. Meanwhile, Japanese CPI printed in line while Flash PMIs flagged that "Inflation remains a key concern, however, with average input costs rising at the quickest rate in six months amid reports of higher labour costs and supplier price hikes. As a result, firms raised their own selling prices at a solid pace, as they looked to protect their margins."
• Antipodeans narrowly outperformed in the G10 space following the prior session's underperformance, with little movement seen on the New Zealand Trade Balance and Australian Flash PMIs.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0875 vs exp. 7.1154 (Prev. 7.0905)

• 10yr UST futures were holding a mild upward bias and retaining most of yesterday's gains amid the broader risk aversion in Asia.
• Bund futures were flat/subdued despite the broader risk aversion, with Bund futures holding above 128.50 heading into EZ Flash PMIs.
• 10yr JGB futures retraced some of this week's losses whilst the session saw a slew of commentary from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who, on the bond market, attempted to alleviate some fiscal woes, suggesting they are not trying to increase the size of spending, whilst they will guide appropriate debt management policy to ensure Japan does not lose market trust in its finances.

• Crude futures were softer amid the broader risk aversion and following the somewhat constructive updates on the Russia-Ukraine front, as Ukraine’s President Zelensky said he agreed to work on the US draft plan to end the war, and is ready to work with the US and Europe for peace. Meanwhile, US President Trump's 28-point plan for peace in Ukraine would force Kyiv to give up additional territory in the east, cap the size of its military, and agree it will never join NATO, according to a draft obtained by Axios.
• Spot gold was subdued despite a flat dollar and softer overall sentiment, with the yellow metal choppy within a tight range under USD 4,100/oz.
• Copper futures were lower amid the broader risk aversion, but with price action contained amid a lack of fresh catalysts.

• Crypto markets continue bleeding with Bitcoin falling under USD 85,500 at a 7-month low, while Ethereum fell to a 4-month low.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Japan’s cabinet approved a JPY 21.3tln economic stimulus package (vs expectations of JPY 20–21.3tln), with JPY 17.7tln in fresh spending via the extra budget and an overall impact of JPY 42.58tln, according to Bloomberg. Japan PM Takaichi said new bonds will be issued to fund the package if tax revenue falls short, but total JGB issuance will be smaller than last year, adding that sustainable state finances must be achieved through economic growth, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she will take appropriate action if there are excessive FX moves, noting that FX intervention is an option as it was mentioned in the Japan–US agreement in September. She said the government will issue debt to fund part of the stimulus package as needed, is not trying to increase the size of spending, and is alarmed by recent one-sided and rapid foreign-exchange moves, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she is closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency and will take appropriate action based on the US–Japan forex agreement. She declined to comment on FX levels, noted that recent moves have been sharp and one-sided, and stressed that currencies should move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. She said that at her meeting with BoJ Governor Ueda and the Economy Minister, Ueda explained the BoJ will gradually adjust monetary support in line with economic and price improvements, adding that specific policy decisions are up to the BoJ. She said the three officials also reaffirmed they will coordinate closely on market developments, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said JGB yields move based on domestic economic, price and monetary-policy developments, fiscal conditions, and overseas market moves. She added that Japan will guide appropriate debt-management policy to ensure it does not lose market trust in its finances, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan is only halfway toward achieving sustainable, stable price increases accompanied by wage gains. She also said Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio should edge down from last year, even after an extra budget for the stimulus package, according to Reuters.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said a weak JPY lifts import prices and contributes to higher consumer inflation, and that FX moves may have a larger impact on prices given current conditions. He said companies are increasingly willing to raise wages and prices, noted he is mindful that FX moves could affect inflation expectations and underlying inflation, and said the BoJ will scrutinise the impact of FX volatility on prices, according to Reuters.
• Japan may intervene before USD/JPY reaches 160, according to Bloomberg, citing a government panellist.
• Foxconn (2317 TT) said it will launch a joint venture with Intrinsic to build an AI factory and plans to invest USD 2–3bln per year in AI. Foxconn and OpenAI will also collaborate to strengthen US manufacturing across the AI supply chain, with OpenAI receiving early access to evaluate Foxconn’s systems and an option to purchase them, according to Reuters.
• Foxconn’s (2317 TT) VisionBay AI unit said it plans to deploy 27MW using NVDA’s GB300 chips in the first half of 2026. This will be Taiwan’s largest advanced GPU cluster and the first GB300 AI datacenter in APAC, according to Reuters.
• Singapore raised its 2025 GDP growth estimate to around 4%, from the previous 1.5–2.5%, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese CPI, Core Nationwide YY (Oct) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.9%)
• Japanese CPI Ex Fresh Food & Energy (Oct) 3.10% (Prev. 3.00%)
• Japanese CPI, Overall Nationwide (Oct) 3.0% (Prev. 2.9%)
• Japanese CPI Index Ex Fresh Food (Oct) 112.1 (Prev. 111.4)
• Japanese Imports YY (Oct) 0.7% vs. Exp. -0.7% (Prev. 3.0%)
• Japanese Exports YY (Oct) 3.6% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 4.2%)
• Japanese Trade Balance Total Yen (Oct) -231.8B vs. Exp. -280.1B (Prev. -237.4B)
• Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Flash SA (Nov) 52.0 (Prev. 51.5); "Inflation remains a key concern"
• Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Flash SA (Nov) 53.1 (Prev. 53.1)
• Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash SA (Nov) 48.8 (Prev. 48.2)
• Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Nov) 52.6 (Prev. 52.1)
• Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov) 52.7 (Prev. 52.5)
• Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Nov) 51.6 (Prev. 49.7)
• South Korean PPI Growth YY (Oct) 1.5% (Prev. 1.2%, Rev. 1.2%)
• South Korean PPI Growth MM (Oct) 0.2% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.4%)
• New Zealand Annual Trade Balance (Oct) -2.28B (Prev. -2.25B, Rev. -2.39B)
• New Zealand Trade Balance (Oct) -1542.0M (Prev. -1355.0M, Rev. -1384M)
• New Zealand Imports (Oct) 8.04B (Prev. 7.18B, Rev. 7.17B)
• New Zealand Exports (Oct) 6.5B (Prev. 5.82B, Rev. 5.78B)

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump’s 28-point plan for peace in Ukraine would force Kyiv to give up additional territory in the east, cap the size of its military, and agree never to join NATO, according to a draft obtained by Axios.
• US President Trump's peace plan for Ukraine includes a security guarantee modelled on NATO's Article 5, which would commit the US & European allies to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the "transatlantic community", via Axios.
• The White House said it believes the Ukraine plan should be acceptable to both sides and that it is having good conversations with both regarding ending the war; Special Envoy Witkoff and Secretary of State Rubio met with Ukrainians this past week to discuss the plan, according to Reuters.
• Ukraine President Zelensky said he discussed the peace process with US Secretary of the Army Driscoll in Kyiv and that US and Ukrainian teams will work on points of the peace plan, according to Reuters.
• Russia’s President Putin said Russian forces are already fighting in Ukraine’s Kostiantynivka and that Ukrainian soldiers should have the opportunity to lay down their arms and surrender; he also said 15 Ukrainian battalions are blocked in the Kupyansk area. Russia’s Chief of General Staff Gerasimov said Russia took control of Kupyansk and over 80% of Vovchansk, according to Reuters.

OTHERS

• Japanese PM Takaichi said there is no change in the plan with China to build a constructive, stable and mutually beneficial relationship, according to Reuters.
• The White House said President Trump is interested in taking additional action against cartels, according to Reuters.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Brussels set to issue formal warning to Italy over ‘golden power’ rules, according to FT

DATA RECAP

• UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov) -19.0 vs. Exp. -18.0 (Prev. -17.0)

• China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus measures, including mortgage subsidies, according to Bloomberg sources.
• European and US equity futures are stronger across the board, with sentiment boosted after strong NVIDIA results and as CEO Huang shrugged off “AI bubble” woes.
• DXY is firmer into the September NFP report, JPY unreactive to further jawboning.
• WTI and Brent edge higher, with some strength seen after Russia’s Kremlin said no peace talks with the US are taking place; XAU dips a touch.
• JGBs lag with stimulus in focus, USTs bearish as the data fog continues.
• Looking ahead, Highlights include, EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Nov), US NFP (Sep), US Jobless Claims (w/e 15 Nov), New Zealand Trade Balance (Oct), Australian Flash PMIs (Nov), Japanese Nationwide CPI (Oct), SARB Policy Announcement, Fed’s Cook, Barr, Hammack, Paulson, Miran, Goolsbee; BoE’s Dhingra, Mann. Supply from the US. Earnings from Gap and Walmart.

• US lawmakers are reportedly considering a new bill to codify China AI chip export curbs, according to Bloomberg sources; the White House has reportedly asked Congress to reject the bill curbing NVIDIA (NVDA) exports.
• US Commerce Department plans to approve export of 70,000 advanced AI chips to UAE and Saudi Arabia, according to WSJ sources; Export deal includes approval for NVIDIA's (NVDA) GB300 or equivalent chips.
• China’s October rare earth magnet exports to the US rose 56.1% from September, according to customs data.
• European Commission will, on Monday, present a list of sectors it wishes to be exempt from US tariffs to US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and USTR Greer, via Politico citing sources; includes medical devices, wines, spirits, beers & pasta

• European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) opened entirely in the green, with sentiment boosted following strong earnings from NVIDIA (see below). Price action today has been fairly sideways at elevated levels as markets await US NFP later.
• European sectors hold a strong positive bias. It is no surprise that Tech is at the top of the pile, in tandem with pre-market gains in NVIDIA (+5%). The likes of ASML (+1.4%) and Infineon (+1.5%) both move higher.
• US equity futures (ES +1.2% NQ +1.5% RTY +0.7%) are stronger across the board, with very clear outperformance in the Tech-heavy NQ, following NVIDIA results. In brief, the Co. reported stronger-than-expected revenue and upbeat sales guidance eased investor worries about heavy AI spending. NVIDIA saw data centre sales rise 66% driven by Blackwell and GB300 demand; it noted that cloud GPUs are sold out, strong gaming, visualisation, robotics growth, though limited China sales.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

NVIDIA Commentary Highlights:

• CEO on AI bubble: CEO Huang says there has been a lot of talk about an AI bubble but "we see something different."
• CFO on China: Will continue to cooperate on China. Sizeable purchase orders for H20 AI chip never materialised in the quarter due to geopolitical issues and the increasingly competitive market in China. Not expecting data-centre-compute revenue from China in Q4.
• CEO Comments: NVIDIA has done a really good job in terms of planning and supply chains. NVIDIA will continue to do stock buybacks. More successful this year vs last year.
• CFO Comments: Still in early innings. Reiterates visibility into USD 500bn Blackwell and Rubin revenue. Cloud services are sold out. Demand continues to exceed expectations.

• DXY is a little firmer today and currently trading towards the upper end of a 100.10 to 100.32 range. From a technical standpoint, the index topped its 200 DMA at 99.91 in the prior session and has continued to rise to a multi-month high – levels not seen since late-May’25. Upside today facilitated by a hawkish leaning FOMC Minutes, and the BLS announcing that the October and November NFP reports will be till December 16th - notably leaving the Fed with only today's (Sept) NFP report. As it stands money markets currently price in a near-25% chance of a cut at the December meeting.
• EUR is a little weaker vs the Dollar, and as has been the case in recent weeks, a real lack of European specific data to help guide the Single-Currency in any direction. As such, much of the price action has been dictated by the Dollar side of the pair, and will ultimately await the NFP report today. Worth highlighting German Producer Prices data which printed more-or-less in-line, and ultimately had limited impact on the pair.
• USD/JPY has continued its ascent beyond the 157.00 mark in overnight trade, to top the 157.50 mark and make a fresh session high of 157.77. Worth noting that the pair has been subject to moves on both sides, with USD gaining amidst a hawkish repricing into the December meeting, whilst JPY has had domestic factors to digest. Overnight, Katayama was back on the wires where she once again attempted some verbal intervention, but to no effect – the pair continued to edge higher. As the European morning progressed, the pair has cooled from best levels, to currently trade at 157.20, but still very much at the upper end of Wednesday’s confines.
• A quiet session for the GBP this morning, with little fresh newsflow from a Budget perspective. Cable currently resides in a 1.3039 to 1.3076 range. The GBP has been subject to some selling pressure over the course of the past month, with losses totalling roughly 3% - this comes amidst Budget related jitters as Chancellor Reeves chops and changes her thoughts on the best approach. Moreover, the recent political uncertainty within the Labour party has added to the risk premium. Scheduled speakers today include Dhingra and Mann.
• Antipodeans trade mixed, with the Kiwi benefiting from the risk-tone whilst the Aussie is flat and essentially conforms to the subdued risk tone in China overnight, hit by their status in the AI race post-NVIDIA; moreover, base metals are generally softer across the board. For China specifically, no major move was seen on reports that China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus. AUD/USD trades within a 0.6472 to 0.6491 range whilst NZD/USD trades in a 0.5596 to 0.5614 confine.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0905 vs exp. 7.1201 (Prev. 7.0872)
• Click for JPY Analysis
• Click for a detailed summary

• JGBs are pressured overnight as Japanese yields continue to climb. JGBs themselves to a 134.56 trough, marking a new contract low. As such, the 10yr yield has risen to a 1.85% peak, taking us back to levels from early 2008. Action that has been driven by ongoing speculation and reporting around the upcoming stimulus. The latest reporting suggests an outlay of around JPY 17tln, far exceeding the JPY 13.9tln figure from the last package. Updates that have pressured JGBs given an expectation for it to necessitate greater issuance than the JPY 6.7tln figure outlined last time.
• USTs are under pressure, but only modestly so. Downside comes given the upbeat risk tone after NVIDIA numbers (see Equities). Additionally, the latest FOMC minutes showed a somewhat divided board but the undertones were hawkish. Potentially more pertinently, the BLS has confirmed the October payrolls release will not print in full (no unemployment rate) while the November series has been delayed until after the December meeting. Factors that are both hawkish/bearish. As the lack of data visibility gives the Fed theoretical scope to wait-and-see how the economy is faring before easing further; reminder, in October, Powell remarked, “when there is fog, you could slow down”. Given all this, USTs are in the red and down to a 112-18 base. Support comes into play at 112-17 from Tuesday before Monday’s 112-15+ WTD low.
• Bunds are softer, following the risk tone lower and posting downside of just under 20 ticks at most. Holding around a 128.48 low, if the move continues, we look to 128.25 from early October before the figure and then touted support at 127.88. Specifics for the bloc are somewhat light thus far. No move to ECB’s Makhlouf this morning, remarks that chimed with the market view that the ECB is at a terminal. Interestingly, Makhlouf said he does not think the new projections are likely to change; a remark in reference to the December forecast round which will include the first look at 2028, a period in focus and of particular note for those looking for further ECB easing. Supply from Spain passed without incident, whilst France was a little more mixed. Overall though, no move seen and OATs trade in-line with Bunds as we approach the tail-end of the week where attention returns back to French budget deliberations.
• Gilts are marginally outperforming after the underperformance on Wednesday. Underperformance that was seemingly due to concerns around the stability of Labour leadership amid mounting challenges to PM Starmer in the background. A challenge that would be a knock to the relatively, market-favourable pairing of Starmer and Reeves. This morning, Gilts are holding in the green by a handful of ticks. Initially opened lower acknowledging the bearish bias seen in peers but then swiftly pared to post gains of 15 ticks at best. Overall though, the benchmark has settled just above the unchanged mark in a 91.51-85 band. Scheduled speakers today include Dhingra and Mann.
• Spain sells EUR 4.921bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 3.00% 2033, 3.20% 2035, 4.00% 2054 Bono.
• France sells EUR 12bl vs exp. EUR 10-12bln 2.40% 2028, 2.70% 2031, 1.50% 2031, 3.50% 2033 OAT.
• Click for a detailed summary

• Crude benchmarks have traded subdued to start the European session despite the positive risk tone following NVIDIA earnings and further reporting about the proposed 28-point plan to end the war in Ukraine. After grinding higher throughout Wednesday's US session, WTI and Brent pulled back to a trough of USD 59.27/bbl and USD 63.52/bbl respectively before extending to session highs of USD 59.80/bbl and USD 64.08/bbl as European traders stepped into the market. Despite the muted trade, benchmarks currently remain near session highs as the European session continues. Some further upside seen following comments via Russia's Kremlin which said that consultations with the US on peace are not taking place, but contacts are.
• Spot XAU sold off at the start of the APAC session and has continued to drift lower following the hawkish FOMC minutes and the bid seen across global equities as NVIDIA posted positive earnings. After a slight bid to a peak of USD 4110/oz at the start of APAC trade, XAU sold off to a trough of USD 4042/oz before consolidating in a USD 4042-4085/oz band. As the European session got underway, the yellow metal briefly extended to a new session low of USD 4039/oz before bouncing back into the earlier band.
• Base metals have traded rangebound to start the European session despite the positive global risk tone, outside of China, following NVIDIA earnings. 3M LME Copper started positive and bid higher to a peak of USD 10.83k/t at the start of APAC trade. However, the red metal fell lower and as the European session got underway, copper extended losses to a trough of USD 10.72k/t. Thus far, 3M LME Copper has managed to bounce off worst levels and is currently trading at USD 10.80k/t.
• Offshore Alliance Union applied to the Australian tribunal for permission to go on strike at Woodside’s (WDS AT) Pluto 2 LNG project.
• BP (BP/ LN) shut the Olympic Pipeline system after Washington leak.
• "As the busy period for Chinese manufacturing draws to a close, copper consumption has largely disappointed, with run rates at fabricators plumbing multiyear lows for the season," according to Bloomberg.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• Swiss Trade (Oct) 4319.0M CH (Prev. 4073.0M CH, Rev. 3990M CH); Gold exports 128.2/T, -11%: Watch exports: CHF 2.2bln, -4.4% Y/Y.
• German Producer Prices MM (Oct) 0.1% (Exp. 0.0%, Prev. -0.1%); YY (Oct) -1.8% vs. Exp. -1.9% (Prev. -1.7%)
• Norway's preliminary oil production (Oct) 1.82mln BPD (prev. 1.82mln BPD M/M); gas production 10.4bln cubic metres (prev. 8.5bln cubic metres M/M)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• ECB's Makhlouf says he is comfortable with where policy is and needs further evidence to change his view; outcomes in line with projections, and new projections are unlikely to change. Should be very cautious about reacting to small deviations in projections. Risks around inflation outlook are balanced. Completely relaxed about undershooting next year, inflation will come back.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump is reportedly considering an executive order to pre-empt state AI laws, according to Reuters, citing a draft.
• US President Trump is considering signing an executive order as soon as Friday, according to The Verge.
• US President Trump posted that he signed the bill approving the release of the Epstein files, according to Truth Social.
• US President Trump is set to meet New York City Mayor Mamdani on Friday at the Oval Office, according to Truth Social.
• BoC Deputy Governor Vincent said Canada’s weak productivity problem has become more urgent and is a systemic issue requiring a coordinated, economy-wide approach; he said the country is stuck in a vicious cycle where weak productivity makes it harder to meet challenges, shocks to the economy have become more frequent, and Canada is too vulnerable to their impacts. He added that when assessing inflation, the Bank places particular importance on the relationship between rising labour costs and productivity, according to Reuters.
• UBS (UBSG SW) executive says US inflation is quite sticky, upcoming quarters is probably going to be a little bit challenging from a macro standpoint.
• BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 15th Nov) +1.5% (prev. +4.2%, Oct avg. +2.4%); notes that "as we approach the holiday seasons, spending per household on holiday items is tracking significantly ahead of 2023 and 2024 levels".

DELAYED DATA UPDATE

• The US November jobs report has been rescheduled for December 16th at 08:30 EST/13:30 GMT, with the October NFP to be released alongside November but without an unemployment rate. The BLS said the October 2025 Employment Situation Report has been cancelled, noting the Establishment Survey (NFP) data will be published with November’s release on December 16th, while Household Survey data (unemployment rate) could not be collected, via BLS.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Russia said it is ready for dialogue with the United States on nuclear arms reduction, via Al Arabiya.
• US President Trump reportedly quietly approved a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine earlier this week, according to NBC.
• Russia's Kremlin says consultations or negotiations with the US on peace in Ukraine are not talking place but contacts are, adds that there is nothing to say on if President Putin has been briefed on the peace plan.

• Bitcoin is a little firmer and trades in a USD 92k mark, whilst Ethereum dips and holds around USD 3k.
• BlackRock (BLK) is preparing to file for an "iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF", according to CoinDesk

• APAC stocks surged across the board, buoyed by a strong performance in the tech sector following NVIDIA’s solid earnings and guidance, while CEO Huang dismissed concerns of an AI bubble, stating, “We see something different.”
• ASX 200 held near highs, supported by strength in tech and gold sectors.
• Nikkei 225 surged at the open and reclaimed 50,000+ levels as NVIDIA boosted tech stocks, though it pulled back from highs amid ongoing US-China tensions and fiscal concerns and as JGB yields continued climbing.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both opened firmer but lagged peers, with China struggling to capitalise on NVIDIA’s performance amid the US/China AI race. Some modest upside was seen on reports that China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus with mortgage subsidies, according to Bloomberg sources. Meanwhile, the PBoC held LPRs steady as expected.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus measures, including mortgage subsidies, according to Bloomberg sources.
• Japan's economic stimulus package is expected to be around JPY 21.3tln, according to NHK. The Japanese government is in the final stages of compiling its economic stimulus package worth JPY 21.3tln, according to a draft seen by Reuters; the package will total JPY 42.8tln, including private-sector investments.
• BoJ Board Member Koeda said the BoJ is ready to step into market via increase in bond buying and emergency market operations when long-term yields make rapid moves; want to closely watch how FX volatility could affect prices; no comment on specific long-term rate level; should be set by markets reflecting fundamentals
• BoJ Board Member Koeda said the bank must normalise interest rates to avoid causing distortion in the future, adding that she believes underlying inflation is about 2%. She reinforced a data-dependent approach.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said the government is watching market moves, including the bond market, closely and expressed concern about recent sharp, one-sided FX moves. He emphasised that the FX market needs to move stably, reflecting fundamentals, and that the government is watching FX with a high sense of urgency.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she won’t comment directly on JGB yield levels, which are determined by various factors, and reaffirmed with BoJ Governor Ueda yesterday that authorities will watch market moves with a strong sense of urgency.
• RBA's Hunter said monthly inflation data can be volatile and that the bank will not react to just one month of data; he also noted that the response in the housing market to rate cuts has been a little stronger than expected.
• Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Nov) 3.00% vs. Exp. 3.00% (Prev. 3.00%); 5Y 3.50% vs. Exp. 3.50% (Prev. 3.50%)
• BoJ Governor Ueda is to set to attend a lower house Finance Committee on Friday 21st November, via Reuters citing parliamentary sources.
• Chinese Commerce Ministry on Japanese Trade ties says if Japan insists on going down the wrong path then China will take the necessary measures. Says Japan's PM Takaichi remarks have a great impact on bilateral trade cooperation. Tokyo should create favourable environment for economic trade cooperation.
• BoJ Ueda to appear at a Financial Times event on the December 9th.

• APAC stocks surged across the board, buoyed by a strong performance in the tech sector following NVIDIA’s solid earnings and guidance, while CEO Huang dismissed concerns of an AI bubble, stating, “We see something different.”
• FOMC Minutes added little new but emphasised divisions on the December decision, with "many" members expecting no change.
• Hawkish Fed repricing was seen as the new BLS data schedule shows that the FOMC won't see the October or November jobs reports before the December 10th meeting.
• China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus measures, including mortgage subsidies, according to Bloomberg sources; Japanese JGB yields continued climbing despite continued verbal intervention.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German Producer Prices (Oct), EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Nov), US NFP (Sep), US Jobless Claims (w/e 15 Nov), New Zealand Trade Balance (Oct), Australian Flash PMIs (Nov), Japanese Nationwide CPI (Oct), SARB Policy Announcement, Fed’s Cook, Barr, Hammack, Paulson, Miran, Goolsbee; BoE’s Dhingra, Mann. Supply from Spain, France, US. Earnings from Gap, Walmart; ThyssenKrupp; Investec, Halma.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

• US stocks were choppy, but ultimately settled in the green as participants awaited NVIDIA earnings.
• SPX +0.38% at 6,642, NDX +0.56% at 24,641, DJI +0.10% at 46,139, RUT -0.04% at 2,348
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NVIDIA

Earnings Release

• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.30 (exp. 1.24), Revenue 57.00bln (exp. 54.41bln), Q4 Revenue view 63.7-66.3bln (exp. 62.2bln). Data centre revenue 51.2bln (exp. 48.3bln). Gaming revenue 4.3bln (exp. 4.4bln). Gross margin 73.4% (exp. 73.5%, prev. guided 73-74%).
• Commentary: "Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out".
• Guidance: Q4 Revenue view 63.7-66.3bln (exp. 62.2bln). GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.8% and 75.0%, respectively, plus or minus 50bps. GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately USD 6.7bln and USD 5.0bln, respectively. GAAP and non-GAAP other income and expense are expected to be an income of approximately USD 500mln, excluding gains and losses from non-marketable and publicly-held equity securities.

Earnings Call Highlights:

• CEO on AI bubble: CEO Huang says there has been a lot of talk about an AI bubble but "we see something different."
• CFO on China: Will continue to cooperate on China. Sizeable purchase orders for H20 AI chip never materialised in the quarter due to geopolitical issues and the increasingly competitive market in China. Not expecting data-center-compute revenue from China in Q4.
• CEO Comments: NVIDIA has done a really good job in terms of planning and supply chains. NVIDIA will continue to do stock buybacks. More successful this year vs last year.
• CFO Comments: Still in early innings. Reiterates visibility into USD 500bn Blackwell and Rubin revenue. Cloud services are sold out. Demand continues to exceed expectations.

Overnight trade: Shares +5.6%

Note: CEO Huang's full interview on Fox Business to be released on Thursday at 15:00 EST/ 20:00 GMT.

FOMC MINUTES

• FOMC minutes revealed a divided committee on the appropriate pace of easing, with many favouring a 25bp cut, several preferring to hold rates, and one advocating a more forceful 50bp reduction. Supporters of a cut pointed to rising downside risks in employment and limited signs of renewed inflation pressures, while those opposed emphasized stalled progress toward the 2% target and insufficient confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path. Despite broad agreement that policy is moving gradually toward neutral, views diverged on how restrictive current settings remained.
• Most participants judged that further cuts are appropriate, but several did not see a December cut as likely, while some thought it could be appropriate if the economy evolves as expected. Concerns about inflation remained persistent, particularly in core non-housing services, expected tariff pass-through, and the risk that prolonged inflation overshoots could lift expectations. However, some noted that inflation excluding tariffs was close to target, and productivity gains or a softer labour market could help curb price pressures. Labour market conditions were seen as softening gradually, with structural factors such as AI-driven investment at play, and activity was moderate with strength concentrated in higher-income households.
• Most members supported concluding the balance-sheet runoff by December 1st and favoured a larger Treasury bill share for flexibility. Several members warned that elevated asset valuations, especially in AI-related equities, left markets vulnerable to corrections. The minutes also touched on asset prices, highlighting the possibility of a disorderly fall in stock prices, especially if AI-related prospects are reassessed abruptly.
• The release, while it largely added little new, did have a hawkish skew and continued to highlight the division in the Committee ahead of the December confab. After the minutes, money market pricing saw further rate cut bets pared, with just 6bps of easing priced, implying a 24% probability of a rate cut in December versus 7bps before the minutes.

DELAYED DATA UPDATE

• The US November jobs report has been rescheduled for December 16th at 08:30 EST/13:30 GMT, with the October NFP to be released alongside November but without an unemployment rate. The BLS said the October 2025 Employment Situation Report has been cancelled, noting the Establishment Survey (NFP) data will be published with November’s release on December 16th, while Household Survey data (unemployment rate) could not be collected, via BLS.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump reiterated his criticisms of Fed Chair Powell, saying rates are too high, according to Reuters.
• US President Trump is reportedly considering an executive order to pre-empt state AI laws, according to Reuters, citing a draft.
• US President Trump is considering signing an executive order as soon as Friday, according to The Verge.
• US President Trump posted that he signed the bill approving the release of the Epstein files, according to Truth Social.
• US President Trump is set to meet New York City Mayor Mamdani on Friday at the Oval Office, according to Truth Social.

Other North American News

• BoC Deputy Governor Vincent said Canada’s weak productivity problem has become more urgent and is a systemic issue requiring a coordinated, economy-wide approach; he said the country is stuck in a vicious cycle where weak productivity makes it harder to meet challenges, shocks to the economy have become more frequent, and Canada is too vulnerable to their impacts. He added that when assessing inflation, the Bank places particular importance on the relationship between rising labour costs and productivity, according to Reuters.

• Key White House officials are pressing lawmakers on Capitol Hill to keep AI chip export restrictions to China out of the annual defense policy bill, according to four sources familiar with the matter, via Axios.
• US lawmakers are reportedly considering a new bill to codify China AI chip export curbs, according to Bloomberg sources; the White House has reportedly asked Congress to reject the bill curbing NVIDIA (NVDA) exports.
• US Commerce Department plans to approve export of 70,000 advanced AI chips to UAE and Saudi Arabia, according to WSJ sources; Export deal includes approval for NVIDIA's (NVDA) GB300 or equivalent chips.
• China’s October rare earth magnet exports to the US rose 56.1% from September, according to customs data.

• APAC stocks surged across the board, buoyed by a strong performance in the tech sector following NVIDIA’s solid earnings and guidance, while CEO Huang dismissed concerns of an AI bubble, stating, “We see something different.”
• ASX 200 held near highs, supported by strength in tech and gold sectors.
• Nikkei 225 surged at the open and reclaimed 50,000+ levels as NVIDIA boosted tech stocks, though it pulled back from highs amid ongoing US-China tensions and fiscal concerns and as JGB yields continued climbing.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both opened firmer but lagged peers, with China struggling to capitalise on NVIDIA’s performance amid the US/China AI race. Some modest upside was seen on reports that China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus with mortgage subsidies, according to Bloomberg sources. Meanwhile, the PBoC held LPRs steady as expected.
• US equity futures traded firmer across the board, with the NQ leading the way after NVIDIA’s performance, rising and holding above 25,000, while the ES reclaimed 6,700+ status.
• European equity futures are indicative of a firmer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.9% after cash closed +0.1% on Wednesday.

• DXY held onto prior gains, benefiting from a hawkish repricing in Fed money markets, which now assigns a sub-25% chance of a 25bps cut in December (down from 48%). This follows the new BLS data schedule showing that the FOMC won't see the October or November jobs reports before the December 10th meeting. The FOMC Minutes added little new but emphasised divisions on the December decision, with "many" members expecting no change. The DXY was also unaffected by NVIDIA's earnings, as attention shifts to the delayed US NFP for September. The index traded in a 100.13–100.32 range, just above yesterday's high of 100.24.
• EUR/USD moved in line with the stronger USD, with light Eurozone newsflow and focus on US developments, particularly the hawkish repricing ahead of the delayed September US jobs report.
• GBP/USD was capped by the firmer Dollar, briefly dipping below 1.3050 after tumbling from above 1.3150 yesterday following weak UK CPI data and broader USD strength.
• USD/JPY weakened against the rising Dollar, with little impact from BoJ’s Koeda comments alongside jawboning from several Japanese officials. Focus remains on Japan’s economic stimulus package, now valued at JPY 21.3tln (up from previous guidance of "more than JPY 20tln").
• Antipodeans traded on either side of the flat mark, unable to capitalise on risk appetite, with the stronger USD capping upside potential.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0905 vs exp. 7.1201 (Prev. 7.0872)

• 10yr UST futures weakened as risk appetite rose and the hawkish Fed repricing continued after the BLS postponed October and November NFP job reports, meaning the FOMC will not see them before the December meeting. FOMC minutes also leaned hawkish, adding to the pressure.
• Bund futures were subdued, weighed down by broader risk sentiment and a lack of fresh Eurozone updates, leaving traders focused on macroeconomic drivers.
• 10yr JGB futures fell as yields continued to climb in Japan, with risk appetite not helping the bond market after the Nikkei 225 surged at the open. Focus remains on Japan’s economic stimulus package, now valued at JPY 21.3tln (up from previous guidance of “more than JPY 20tln”). Jawboning from officials did little to shift prices.
• US sold USD 16bln of 20-year bonds; High Yield: 4.706% (prev. 4.506%, six-auction avg. 4.820%); WI: 4.704%. Tail: 0.2bps (prev. -1.2bps, six-auction avg. -0.3bps). Bid-to-Cover: 2.41x (prev. 2.73x, six-auction avg. 2.66x). Dealers: 11.4% (prev. 10.0%, six-auction avg. 11.9%). Directs: 29.2% (prev. 26.3%, six-auction avg. 22.7%). Indirects: 59.5% (prev. 63.6%, six-auction avg. 65.3%)

• Crude futures firmed, retracing some of yesterday's losses despite the stronger Dollar. Crude prices reacted to broader risk sentiment post-NVIDIA earnings, where discussions on power demand amid AI growth also surfaced during the call.
• Spot gold came under pressure, dipping back below USD 4,100/oz as the Dollar gained ground following the hawkish Fed repricing.
• Copper futures saw modest gains, though upside was capped by a less optimistic mood in China and the firmer USD, whilst no major move was seen on reports that China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus.
• Offshore Alliance Union applied to the Australian tribunal for permission to go on strike at Woodside’s (WDS AT) Pluto 2 LNG project.
• BP (BP/ LN) shut the Olympic Pipeline system after Washington leak.
• "As the busy period for Chinese manufacturing draws to a close, copper consumption has largely disappointed, with run rates at fabricators plumbing multiyear lows for the season," according to Bloomberg.

• Bitcoin gained overnight, bolstered by the NVIDIA-induced risk appetite, with Bitcoin rising towards USD 93k overnight.
• BlackRock (BLK) is preparing to file for an "iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF", according to CoinDesk

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus measures, including mortgage subsidies, according to Bloomberg sources.
• Japan's economic stimulus package is expected to be around JPY 21.3tln, according to NHK. The Japanese government is in the final stages of compiling its economic stimulus package worth JPY 21.3tln, according to a draft seen by Reuters; the package will total JPY 42.8tln, including private-sector investments.
• BoJ Board Member Koeda said the BoJ is ready to step into market via increase in bond buying and emergency market operations when long-term yields make rapid moves; want to closely watch how FX volatility could affect prices; no comment on specific long-term rate level; should be set by markets reflecting fundamentals
• BoJ Board Member Koeda said the bank must normalise interest rates to avoid causing distortion in the future, adding that she believes underlying inflation is about 2%. She reinforced a data-dependent approach.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said the government is watching market moves, including the bond market, closely and expressed concern about recent sharp, one-sided FX moves. He emphasised that the FX market needs to move stably, reflecting fundamentals, and that the government is watching FX with a high sense of urgency.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she won’t comment directly on JGB yield levels, which are determined by various factors, and reaffirmed with BoJ Governor Ueda yesterday that authorities will watch market moves with a strong sense of urgency.
• RBA's Hunter said monthly inflation data can be volatile and that the bank will not react to just one month of data; he also noted that the response in the housing market to rate cuts has been a little stronger than expected.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Nov) 3.00% vs. Exp. 3.00% (Prev. 3.00%); 5Y 3.50% vs. Exp. 3.50% (Prev. 3.50%)

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US and Russian officials have drafted a new peace plan for Ukraine, with a sweeping 28-point proposal that would include territorial concessions and a rollback of American military assistance, according to FT.
• US proposals to end the war reportedly include Ukraine ceding territory and some weapons and reducing the size of its armed forces, with the US signalling to President Zelensky that he must accept the framework and its main points, according to Reuters, citing sources.
• US President Trump's aides reportedly see no rush to levy the promised semiconductor tariffs, with the administration taking a more cautious approach to avoid tensions with China; no final decision has been made, though a White House and Commerce Department official disputed that the administration had adjusted its posture, according to Reuters, citing sources.
• Russia said it is ready for dialogue with the United States on nuclear arms reduction, via Al Arabiya.
• US President Trump reportedly quietly approved a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine earlier this week, according to NBC.

• The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources; Politico reported that US officials are close to unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia to end the Ukraine conflict.
• The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.
• European bourses are trading on either side of the unchanged mark, whilst US equity futures gain ahead of NVIDIA.
• USD is modestly firmer into FOMC Minutes, USD/JPY rises above 156.00 after Finance Minister Katayama said there were no specific discussions on FX with BoJ Governor Ueda.
• Bonds initially bid by a subdued risk tone, but now hold a downward bias sentiment improves; Gilts briefly boosted by CPI, but then come under marked pressured.
• Crude complex is modestly lower with Zelensky’s delegation in Turkey, XAU returns above USD 4100/oz.
• Looking ahead, US International Trade (Aug), FOMC Minutes, Fed’s Williams, Logan, Barkin, Miran; BoE’s Dhingra, supply from the US. Earnings from NVIDIA.

• The White House stated that the US and Saudi Arabia have agreed to increase engagement on trade issues in the coming weeks, with an agreement secured for Saudi Arabia to purchase nearly 300 American tanks. President Trump approved a major defence sale package, including future F-35 deliveries. Key Saudi-US achievements include a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, advancements in critical minerals cooperation, and a landmark AI memorandum of understanding (MOU).
• The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.
• Dutch government says it has suspended intervention at Nexperia as a show of goodwill, via Reuters citing sources. We are positive about the measures taken by China to ensure supply of chips. Will continue to engage in constructive talks with China.

• European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are modestly mixed and trade on either side of the unchanged mark, as sentiment attempts to stabilise following recent losses - but ultimately traders remain tentative ahead of FOMC Minutes and NVIDIA earnings.
• European sectors are mixed. At the top of sectors is Media (+1.5%), Energy (+1.0%) and Food and Beverage (+0.5%). At the bottom of sectors is Utilities (-0.9%), Banks (-0.6%), and Insurance (-0.4%), once again newsflow has been light to explain the downtick in those sectors.
• US equity futures (ES +0.3% NQ +0.4% RTY +0.5% ) are modestly higher across the board, attempting to pare back some of the hefty losses seen in the prior session.
• NVIDIA’s earnings are due after the market close, as investors grow wary of soaring AI spending. Investors expect clarity on where billions allocated to AI are flowing, with analysts suggesting that the results could steer wider market sentiment. Analyst forecast Q3 earnings of USD 1.24 per share, and revenue of USD 54.41bln revenue, mostly from Data Centre operations. Orders for Blackwell and Rubin chips are expected to exceed USD 500bln, Susquehanna says. Despite optimism, Michael Burry recently announced he has 1mln puts, while SoftBank (SFTBY) has exited its stake.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for Market Analysis on the Tech sector

• DXY is a little firmer and trades within a narrow, but fairly busy, 99.49 to 99.79 range. Sentiment continues to remain tentative ahead of the key risk events today (NVIDIA/FOMC Minutes) and into September’s NFP report on Thursday. G10s are currently broadly flat/lower vs the USD, with clear underperformance in the Antipodeans. On the Fed, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.
• EUR is flat/mildly lower vs USD and trades within a narrow 1.1566 to 1.1597 range, stopping just shy of the round 1.1600 mark; a low for the day which marks a fresh WTD trough, but towards the midpoint of last week’s confines. EZ HICP Final Metrics were left unrevised – no move on the report.
• Overnight, USD/JPY traded choppily within a tight range, with the yen showing modest strength as risk sentiment in Japan and South Korea deteriorated. Into the morning, the JPY scaled back that strength to trade modestly lower vs the USD, ahead of a meeting between BoJ Governor Ueda and Japanese Finance Minister Katayama. To put this meeting in some context, Japan’s bond yields hit multiyear highs overnight on fears a roughly JPY 17tln stimulus package under PM Takaichi will strain already weak public finances. She provided some post-meeting remarks, where she highlighted that the meeting focused on maintaining a close BoJ-Government coordination, with the largest bout of pressure for the JPY seen following remarks that there was “no specific discussion on FX”. This broke the Yen out of its overnight range to make a fresh session high above the 156.00 mark - a changing target right now, but high for today 156.29 at time of writing.
• GBP is lower today, in the aftermath of the region’s UK inflation report. Delving into the data, headline CPI Y/Y and M/M printed in-line with expectations, and cooled a touch from the prior whilst Services was cooler-than-expected. Governor Bailey, who cast the tie-breaking vote last time around, made clear in the statement & press conference that, in terms of the next cut, the BoE generally but Bailey in particular, is highly inflation contingent. As such, the as-expected moderation will push Bailey towards a December cut; however, it is too soon to say for sure, given the uptick in food inflation and the stickiness of various components. Additionally, we await next week's budget and then the November inflation print just before the December announcement for further insight.
• Antipodeans trade lower overnight, amidst the subdued risk tone – price action which has continued to play out into the European session. The Kiwi sits at the foot of the G10 pile, closely joined by the Aussie; NZD/USD is currently at the bottom end of a 0.5622 to 0.5661 range.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0872 vs exp. 7.1121 (Prev. 7.0856)
• Click for a detailed summary

• Gilts opened firmer by a handful of ticks before lifting to a 92.46 peak with gains of 13 at most. Upside spurred given the modest bullish bias in peers early doors and, more pertinently, after the morning's CPI release confirmed that UK inflation peaked across the late Summer. A release that factors in favour of the dovish contingent of the BoE.
• However, the stickiness of several components and uncertainty into the Budget and November inflation report mean that a definitive call for a December cut cannot be made just yet. Explaining the minimal magnitude of the Gilt move, its subsequent paring and why market pricing didn't deviate significantly/lastingly from a c. 80% chance of a cut. Downside was exacerbated after supply, where another sub-3x b/c spurred modest pressure to losses of c. 15 ticks, before slipping further to within reach of 50 of downside ticks at most. Supply aside, no clear fresh driver behind the move, aside from the uptick in the general risk tone (European equities moving a little higher).
• Bunds began on the front foot, and got to gains of eight ticks at most at a 128.79 peak. Thereafter, the complex saw a modest pullback and fell into the red with downside of just over five ticks at most. Specifics for the space light thus far and the docket ahead is devoid of Tier 1 events. As such, we look to US drivers for direction.
• USTs were contained ahead of several key US events, but slipped to troughs alongside a pickup in sentiment and underperformance in Gilts; supply, minutes, speakers and potentially most pertinently NVIDIA earnings all due. For the minutes, we look for insight into how the FOMC aligns itself to the hawkish tone taken by Powell in the press conference; ahead of that, markets ascribe a c. 40% chance of a December cut. Into this, USTs hover around the unchanged mark in a narrow 112-23 to 112-27+ band.
• UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.75% 2035 Gilt: b/c 2.84x (prev. 2.78x), average yield 4.608% (prev. 4.769%), tail 0.6bps (prev. 0.6bps).
• Bond dealers have pushed back against Fed officials urging them to use the Standing Repo Facility, Bloomberg reports citing sources; citing stigma over borrowing from the Fed directly, operational and balance sheet concerns as factors.
• Click for a detailed summary

• Crude benchmarks have begun to pull back slightly and retrace the gains made in Tuesday’s session after consolidating in a tight band throughout the APAC session. WTI and Brent oscillated in narrow USD 60.32-60.70/bbl and USD 64.51-64.78/bbl ranges during APAC trade before falling to a trough of USD 60.00/bbl and USD 64.19/bbl as the European session got underway. Thus far, benchmarks have bounced off session lows as risk tone begins to pick up across global markets. In geopols, Axios reported that the Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine. More recently, Brent Jan'26 took a leg lower to fresh troughs on Politico reports that US officials are reportedly nearing a deal to unveiling a major new peace agreement; last at USD 64.15/bbl.
• Spot XAU has seen modest gains to start the European session as markets await for FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings after the closing bell. XAU dipped to a low of USD 4056/oz in the early hours of the APAC session before reversing higher and peaking at USD 4099/oz. The yellow metal pulled back slightly to a low of USD 4078/oz before extending above USD 4100/oz. Currently, XAU is trading at session highs at USD 4113/oz.
• Base metals have traded subdued at the start of the European session amid a lack of catalysts. 3M LME Copper oscillated in a tight USD 10.7k-10.77k/t band before extending to a peak of USD 10.78k/t in line with the global risk tone. Broadly speaking the complex, as is the case for markets elsewhere, are waiting for AI behemoth NVIDIA to report Q3 earnings after the closing bell (see board for primer).
• US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +4.4mln (exp. -0.6mln), Distillate +0.6mln (exp. -1.2mln), Gasoline +1.5mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -0.8mln
• EU plans to create a central body to co-ordinate the purchasing and stockpiling of critical minerals, according to the FT.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• UK CPI YY (Oct) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.8%); MM (Oct) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (prev. 0.00%)
• UK Core CPI YY (Oct) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.5%); CPI MM (Oct) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (prev. 0.00%)
• UK CPI Services YY (Oct) 4.50% vs. Exp. 4.60% (Prev. 4.70%); MM (Oct) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.40% (Prev. -0.30%)
• UK ONS House Price Index: +2.6% in the 12-months to September
• EU Current Account SA, EUR (Sep) 23.1B (Prev. 11.9B)
• EU HICP Final YY (Oct) 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 2.1%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering shielding small businesses from tax rises, according to The Times.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly looking at ways to cut household energy bills, via Politico citing sources; targeting a cut of GBP 150-170/yr on annual household energy bulls. Cut to VAT on energy bills is also being considered.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.
• US President Trump posted "Investment in AI is helping to make the U.S. Economy the “HOTTEST” in the World — But overregulation by the States is threatening to undermine this Growth Engine...We MUST have one Federal Standard instead", via Truth Social.
• Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk and NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang are set to participate in a panel at the US-Saudi investment forum on November 19th, according to Reuters.
• Elon Musk's xAI is said to be in advanced talks to raise USD 15bln in new equity at a USD 230bln valuation, according to WSJ sources.
• JPMorgan's 2026 outlook note sees Fed rate cuts supporting global equities and credit, with long-term Treasury yields likely to remain range-bound and multi-asset portfolios set for another year of solid returns.

MIDDLE EAST

• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Saudi Arabia wants to be part of the Abraham Accords while ensuring a path to a two-state solution, and added that the kingdom will raise its investment in the US to USD 1tln, according to Reuters.
• US President Trump reiterated that Iran would like to make a deal with the US.
• US President Trump said Saudi Arabia has been designated as a major non-NATO ally to the US, according to Reuters.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski says they will respond to the railway sabotage, not just diplomatically.
• The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources. The plan’s 28 points fall into four general categories: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and future US relations with Russia and Ukraine. The basic idea was to take the principles that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to in Alaska in August and produce a proposal to address the Ukraine conflict, restore US-Russia ties, and address Russia’s security concerns, according to Axios.
• US officials are reportedly near to unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia to end the Ukraine conflict, via Politico; expected to be agreed by all parties by end-November, possibly as soon as this week.
• US President Trump dispatched a high-level Pentagon delegation to Kyiv for talks on Wednesday, in the administration’s latest attempt to revive negotiations on halting Ukraine’s war with Russia, according to WSJ.
• Russia's Defence Ministry said Ukraine attempted to strike targets deep inside Russian territory with ATACMS missiles (long-range, guided missiles) on Tuesday, with Voronezh as the target; Russian media reported that all of the ATACMS were shot down.
• Russia and the US have reportedly discussed the possibility of conducting another prisoner exchange, via Axios’ Ravid citing comments from a Russian special envoy.
• Poland scrambled aircraft to secure its airspace following Russian strikes on Ukraine, according to the Polish armed forces.
• Explosions reported in Lviv in Western Ukraine, following Ukrainian military warning of high threat of Russian missile and drone attacks. Note, Lviv is approximately 70km (43 miles) from the Polish border.

CHINA-JAPAN

• The Chinese government issued a renewed ban on Japanese seafood imports, according to Kyodo.
• China told Japan that the suspended seafood imports are amid monitoring of treated water release from the Fukushima nuclear plant, according to Kyodo.
• China's Foreign Ministry says Japan's PM Takaichi's "erroneous remarks" about Taiwan has fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations. Suspending talks on resuming imports of Japanese beef.

• Bitcoin is a little lower and trades around USD 91k whilst Ethereum sits above USD 3.1k.

• APAC stocks were choppy, cautious, and eventually traded subdued, as the region held a tentative stance ahead of the FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings.
• ASX 200 printed on either side of the unchanged mark with limited news flow in the region. Wage Price Index data came in as expected, producing little market reaction. The index found support from gains in gold miners after the metal bounced from support around USD 4,000/oz.
• Nikkei 225 experienced choppy trade, swinging between gains and losses. Following modest opening gains, the index quickly turned negative within the first 30 minutes as JGB yields continued to rise, while Japan navigated ongoing tensions with China and PM Takaichi's fiscal package. Nikkei thereafter moved to session highs above 49,000 before trimming those gains once again.
• KOSPI saw a sharp acceleration in losses shortly after the open (-2.2% at one point), driven by declines in its heavily-exposed tech sector, with Samsung Electronics falling some 3% at one point. KOSPI thereafter trimmed a bulk of its losses but remained negative.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened with modest, cautious gains, in contrast to the more negative tone in Japan and South Korea, although the former later conformed to the global tech losses, whilst the latter gave up initial modest gains.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama says she held meeting from perspective of maintaining close government and BoJ coordination; reconfirmed technical tweak to BoJ-Government joint statement, and no change to substance. No specific discussion on FX.
• China's Foreign Ministry says Japan's PM Takaichi's "erroneous remarks" about Taiwan has fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations
• Japan's government plans to spend over JPY 20tln in an economic package, according to Kyodo News.
• Japanese PM Takaichi's advisory panel member Kataoka said the BoJ is not likely to raise rates before March and estimated that a budget of JPY 20tln is needed for this fiscal year, via Bloomberg.
• Former TSMC (2330 TT) Senior VP Dr. Wei-Jen Lo is rumoured to have obtained the latest data on TSMC’s 2nm advanced chip manufacturing processes before joining Intel (INTC), according to MoneyUDN.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Wage Price Index YY (Q3) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%)
• Australian Wage Price Index QQ (Q3) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%)
• Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Sep) 11.6% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 1.6%)
• Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Sep) 4.2% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. -0.9%)

• APAC stocks were choppy, cautious, and eventually traded subdued, as the region held a tentative stance ahead of the FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings.
• The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources; Russia said Ukraine attempted to strike targets deep inside Russian territory.
• BoJ Governor Ueda, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, and Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi are set to meet at 09:10 GMT (04:10 EST), according to JiJi; Japanese Finance Minister Katayama is expected to speak to media at 09:30 GMT (04:30 EST).
• The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.
• Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, EZ HICP (Final), US International Trade (Aug), FOMC Minutes, Fed’s Williams, Logan, Barkin, Miran; BoE’s Dhingra, supply from the UK & US. Earnings from NVIDIA, Target & Lowe’s.  
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

• US stocks were lower, albeit settling well off troughs, as mega-cap sectors Consumer Discretionary and Technology underperformed amid continued concerns regarding AI overvaluation. These worries were heightened on Tuesday, as Rothschild downgraded both Amazon and Microsoft, saying it’s time to take a more cautious stance on AI hyperscalers. Health and Energy sat at the top of the sectorial breakdown, with the latter buoyed by strength in the crude complex, albeit not on any specific headline driver.
• SPX -0.83% at 6,617, NDX -1.20% at 24,503, DJI -1.05% at 46,103, RUT +0.21% at 2,346.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump said he has begun interviews for Fed Chair and would love to remove Powell immediately, adding he thinks he already knows his choice; he said there are some surprising names under consideration but he may go the standard route, and noted that people are holding him back from firing Powell, according to Reuters.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.

US DELAYED DATA UPDATES

• The US Department of Labor said weekly jobless-claims data will be released on Thursday and that a technical issue caused an early posting of some of the claims data, according to Reuters.
• The BLS said the PPI for September will be released on November 25th, while the Import and Export Price Indices for September will be released on December 3rd, 2025, according to Reuters.

NOTABLE US EQUITY HEADLINES

• Meta (META) won its FTC antitrust trial over the Instagram and WhatsApp acquisitions, with the judge ruling the deals did not create an illegal monopoly, according to Bloomberg.
• NVIDIA (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) are committing to invest in Anthropic’s next fundraising round, according to Reuters citing sources.
• US President Trump posted "Investment in AI is helping to make the U.S. Economy the “HOTTEST” in the World — But overregulation by the States is threatening to undermine this Growth Engine...We MUST have one Federal Standard instead", via Truth Social.
• Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk and NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang are set to participate in a panel at the US-Saudi investment forum on November 19th, according to Reuters.
• Elon Musk's xAI is said to be in advanced talks to raise USD 15bln in new equity at a USD 230bln valuation, according to WSJ sources.

• US President Trump said China is on schedule in buying US farm products but wants China to speed up soybean purchases, adding that he wants Treasury Secretary Bessent to tell China to accelerate those purchases, according to Reuters.
• The White House stated that the US and Saudi Arabia have agreed to increase engagement on trade issues in the coming weeks, with an agreement secured for Saudi Arabia to purchase nearly 300 American tanks. President Trump approved a major defence sale package, including future F-35 deliveries. Key Saudi-US achievements include a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, advancements in critical minerals cooperation, and a landmark AI memorandum of understanding (MOU).
• The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.

• APAC stocks were choppy, cautious, and eventually traded subdued, as the region held a tentative stance ahead of the FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings.
• ASX 200 printed on either side of the unchanged mark with limited news flow in the region. Wage Price Index data came in as expected, producing little market reaction. The index found support from gains in gold miners after the metal bounced from support around USD 4,000/oz.
• Nikkei 225 experienced choppy trade, swinging between gains and losses. Following modest opening gains, the index quickly turned negative within the first 30 minutes as JGB yields continued to rise, while Japan navigated ongoing tensions with China and PM Takaichi's fiscal package. Nikkei thereafter moved to session highs above 49,000 before trimming those gains once again.
• KOSPI saw a sharp acceleration in losses shortly after the open (-2.2% at one point), driven by declines in its heavily-exposed tech sector, with Samsung Electronics falling some 3% at one point. KOSPI thereafter trimmed a bulk of its losses but remained negative.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened with modest, cautious gains, in contrast to the more negative tone in Japan and South Korea, although the former later conformed to the global tech losses, whilst the latter gave up initial modest gains.
• US equity futures initially traded flat but soon adopted a negative bias as sentiment soured in Japan and South Korea shortly after the open. Some positivity was seen around the China open, although futures later waned once again ahead of FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings.
• European equity futures Indicative of an uneventful open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future U/C after cash closed -1.9% on Tuesday.

• DXY was choppy in a narrow 99.524–99.669 range, remaining within Tuesday's parameters for most of the session before it eclipsed yesterday's peak (99.661) before trimming modest gains. Market focus shifted towards the FOMC minutes, with attention also on NVIDIA earnings.
• EUR/USD saw little movement as the pair consolidated following yesterday's losses, which saw it fall below the 1.16 mark. Traders are now looking ahead to the EZ Final CPI data, though this is unlikely to have a significant impact on EUR assets.
• GBP/USD continued to tread water ahead of the upcoming UK CPI, with current BoE pricing suggesting a 79% chance of a 25bps rate cut at the December 18th announcement.
• USD/JPY traded choppily within a tight range, with the yen showing modest strength as risk sentiment in Japan and South Korea deteriorated. The pair fluctuated around 155.50, staying within the 154.81–155.73 range seen yesterday. Some JPY weakness was seen on reports that the Chinese government issued a renewed ban on Japanese seafood imports.
• Antipodeans eventually traded lower as sentiment tilted lower. AUD saw little reaction to the Australian Wage Price Index, which printed in line with expectations and prior readings.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0872 vs exp. 7.1121 (Prev. 7.0856)

• 10yr UST futures held a mild upward bias following the previous day’s steepening, supported by the cautious risk profile across APAC.
• Bund futures were underpinned amid the cautious risk tone, with little material data on the EZ docket, as traders focused on the upcoming FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings.
• 10yr JGB futures bucked the trend, with yields rising across the Japanese curve. The market remained under pressure, with downticks after Japan’s 20-year JGB auction, where weak demand raised concerns about the fiscal stimulus plan, although the 10yr JGB future edged higher after the initial reaction to the auction. Meanwhile, the 40-year JGB yield reached a record high of 3.685%.
• Japan sold JPY 600bln vs exp. JPY 800bln 20-year JGB; b/c 3.28x (prev. 3.56x), average yield 2.809% (prev. 2.674%)
• Australia sold AUD 1bln 2.75% 2035 AGB; b/c 3.65x (prev. 2.91x), average yield 4.414% (prev. 4.1047%).
• China prices 4-year EUR bond at mid swaps +5bps (vs IPT mid swaps +28bps); prices 7-year EUR bond at mid swaps +13bps (vs IPT mid swaps +38bps), according to the term sheet

• Crude futures consolidated after the prior day's gains, which occurred despite no specific headlines. The upside coincided with the Trump/Saudi Crown Prince conference, likely due to traders' belief that the recent US-Saudi engagement reduced pressure on the Kingdom to lower oil prices. Mild downticks were seen overnight following reports that the Trump administration has been working with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources.
• Spot gold was uneventful for most of the session after finding support at USD 4,000/oz on Tuesday, with traders focusing on the upcoming FOMC minutes ahead of NVIDIA earnings. Modest upticks were seen across precious metals overnight around the China open and despite a lack of newsflow.
• Copper futures were subdued and largely reflected the broader cautious and tentative risk profile across markets.
• US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +4.4mln (exp. -0.6mln), Distillate +0.6mln (exp. -1.2mln), Gasoline +1.5mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -0.8mln
• EU plans to create a central body to co-ordinate the purchasing and stockpiling of critical minerals, according to the FT.

• Bitcoin traded with modest losses overnight as it edged lower towards USD 91,000 to the downside.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoJ Governor Ueda, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, and Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi are set to meet at 09:10 GMT (04:10 EST), according to JiJi; Japanese Finance Minister Katayama is expected to speak to media at 09:30 GMT (04:30 EST).
• Japan's government plans to spend over JPY 20tln in an economic package, according to Kyodo News.
• Japanese PM Takaichi's advisory panel member Kataoka said the BoJ is not likely to raise rates before March and estimated that a budget of JPY 20tln is needed for this fiscal year, via Bloomberg.
• Former TSMC (2330 TT) Senior VP Dr. Wei-Jen Lo is rumoured to have obtained the latest data on TSMC’s 2nm advanced chip manufacturing processes before joining Intel (INTC), according to MoneyUDN.

DATA RECAP

• New Zealand PPI - Outputs QQ (Q3) 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)
• New Zealand PPI - Inputs QQ (Q3) 0.2% (Prev. 0.6%)
• Australian Wage Price Index YY (Q3) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%)
• Australian Wage Price Index QQ (Q3) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%)
• Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Sep) 11.6% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 1.6%)
• Japanese Machinery Orders MM * (Sep) 4.2% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. -0.9%)

MIDDLE EAST

• US President Trump said he is working on approving advanced chips for Saudi Arabia, calling Saudi a great ally; he said F-35 jets sold to Saudi will be similar to those sold to Israel and that both Israel and Saudi should receive top-of-the-line F-35s. He said he had a good discussion on the Abraham Accords, that the US has reached a defence agreement with Saudi Arabia, and that he can see a civil-nuclear deal happening with the kingdom.
• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Saudi Arabia wants to be part of the Abraham Accords while ensuring a path to a two-state solution, and added that the kingdom will raise its investment in the US to USD 1tln, according to Reuters.
• US President Trump said Iran wants to make a deal very badly, while Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Saudi Arabia will do its best on an Iran deal, according to Reuters.
• France, Britain, Germany, and the US submitted a draft resolution on Iran to the IAEA's 35-nation board of governors, according to Reuters.
• US President Trump reiterated that Iran would like to make a deal with the US.
• US President Trump said Saudi Arabia has been designated as a major non-NATO ally to the US, according to Reuters.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources. The plan’s 28 points fall into four general categories: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and future US relations with Russia and Ukraine. The basic idea was to take the principles that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to in Alaska in August and produce a proposal to address the Ukraine conflict, restore US-Russia ties, and address Russia’s security concerns, according to Axios.
• US President Trump dispatched a high-level Pentagon delegation to Kyiv for talks on Wednesday, in the administration’s latest attempt to revive negotiations on halting Ukraine’s war with Russia, according to WSJ.
• Russia's Defence Ministry said Ukraine attempted to strike targets deep inside Russian territory with ATACMS missiles (long-range, guided missiles) on Tuesday, with Voronezh as the target; Russian media reported that all of the ATACMS were shot down.
• Russia and the US have reportedly discussed the possibility of conducting another prisoner exchange, via Axios’ Ravid citing comments from a Russian special envoy.
• Poland scrambled aircraft to secure its airspace following Russian strikes on Ukraine, according to the Polish armed forces.
• Explosions reported in Lviv in Western Ukraine, following Ukrainian military warning of high threat of Russian missile and drone attacks. Note, Lviv is approximately 70km (43 miles) from the Polish border.

CHINA-JAPAN

• The Chinese government issued a renewed ban on Japanese seafood imports, according to Kyodo.
• China told Japan that the suspended seafood imports are amid monitoring of treated water release from the Fukushima nuclear plant, according to Kyodo.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering shielding small businesses from tax rises, according to The Times.
• BoE’s Dhingra said interest rates should be brought to the neutral level soon and added that UK disposable income is just as weak as consumption.
• German Chancellor Merz said French and German companies took part in today’s digital sovereignty summit and agreed on additional investments of EUR 12bln, according to Reuters.