• European equities opened higher, reflecting positive APAC momentum, though European news flow has been light. 
• Central bank updates included hawkish BoJ sources alongside concerns about Hassett as Fed Chair. 
• The BoJ is likely to raise interest rates in December in a government-approved move, according to Reuters and Bloomberg sources.
• DXY is trading near the lower end of its 98.798–99.029 intraday range, pressured by JPY strength
• Fixed income benchmarks are lower following the hawkish BoJ reports, though the associated softening in risk sentiment has provided a modest haven bid as the morning unfolded.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Layoffs (Nov), Jobless Claims (w/e 29 Nov), Revelio Public Labor Statistics, Chicago Fed Labour Market Indicators (Final), Durable Goods (Sep), Factory Orders (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP. Speakers include BoE’s Mann, ECB’s Lane, Cipollone & de Guindos, Fed’s Bowman. Earnings from Kroger & Dollar General.

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump said they will either let the USMCA expire or maybe work out another deal with Mexico and Canada.
• US halted plans to sanction the Chinese spy agency to maintain the trade truce, and the Trump administration will also not enact any major new export controls against China, while the Trump admin is preparing to hold a high-level meeting to decide whether to provide licenses to allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to export the H200 to China, according to FT.
• Chinese Commerce Ministry, on rare earth export controls, said as long are export license applications are for civilian use, they will be approved.
• Chinese President Xi said in a meeting with French President Macron that China and France are far-sighted, responsible and independent major countries, while he added that China and France should uphold multilateralism and that China is willing to eliminate interferences and stick to equal dialogues with France. Xi also commented that both countries should support each other on core interests and agreed to expand practical cooperation, as well as consolidate cooperation on airspace and nuclear energy. Furthermore, he said both countries aim to expand two-way investment and that China will expand domestic demand in the 15th five-year plan and will also expand market access and opening-up.
• India's Trade Minister said exports of autos, electronic goods, textiles and machinery to Russia are expected to increase. India also aims to expand and diversify exports to Russia to address the trade imbalances. India has secured a USD 2bln submarine deal, Bloomberg reported during the visit of Russian President Putin.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump's aides and allies were reportedly discussing the possibility of Treasury Secretary Bessent also leading the National Economic Council, according to Bloomberg.
• US President Trump's administration ordered an enhanced vetting of H-1B visa applicants, with new H-1B visa screening based on any involvement in censorship or free speech, according to the State Department memo.
• The EU investigation into Meta's (META) use of AI in WhatsApp could come on Thursday, according to Reuters sources.
• Palantir (PLTR) launched a chain reaction to build AI infrastructure in the US, with founding partners including CenterPoint Energy (CNP) and NVIDIA (NVDA).

BOJ

• BoJ is likely to raise interest rates in December, a decision Japan's government will likely tolerate, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• Key members of Japanese PM Takaichi's government would not try to prevent a BoJ hike in December, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.
• BoJ is carrying out an assessment of the level of neutral interest rate, according to Jiji.
• BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated that they can only estimate the neutral rate with a wide range thus far, while he added they cannot specify a terminal rate and are working on narrowing the estimate on the neutral interest rate, with the findings to be disclosed if successful. Furthermore, he said for now, they have to work with the current estimate set in a fairly wide range, and there is uncertainty on how far interest rates can eventually be raised.

• European equities opened higher, reflecting positive APAC momentum, though morning news flow has been light. Markets expect Kevin Hassett to be named the next Fed Chair, with some concerns that he could be influenced by President Trump on rates. Meanwhile, Reuters and Bloomberg reported hawkish signals suggesting the BoJ is likely to raise rates in December with government approval.
• Sectors are mixed with a positive tilt: Autos, Industrial Goods & Services and Technology lead. At the bottom: Utilities, Basic Resources and Health Care.
• US equity futures are marginally higher: ES (+0.1%), NQ (+0.1%), YM (+0.1%), while RTY is flat. Focus now shifts to US data—Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, the Atlanta Fed GDP estimate—and comments from Fed’s Bowman.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

• DXY is trading near the lower end of its 98.798–99.029 intraday range, pressured by JPY strength after Reuters and Bloomberg reported the BoJ is likely to hike rates in December with government approval. Money markets were already pricing a 66% chance of a hike following Governor Ueda’s recent hawkish remarks. USD/JPY slipped from 155.54 to a 154.77 low, with next support at the 1 December trough of 154.66.
• AUD is firmer amid continued hawkish repricing of RBA expectations.
• G10 FX is otherwise mostly flat and taking its cue from the USD, with few fresh drivers. EUR and GBP were little moved by Construction PMI releases.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0733 vs exp. 7.0554 (Prev. 7.0754)
• Chinese State-owned banks reportedly bought USD on the onshore spot market this week in a bid to rein in CNY strength, according to Reuters sources.
• RBI to tolerate a weaker rupee as dollar inflows diminish, according to Reuters sources.
• Click for NY OpEx Details

• Fixed income benchmarks are lower following the hawkish BoJ reports, though the associated softening in risk sentiment has provided a modest haven bid as the morning has unfolded.
• JGBs underperformed, falling as much as 42 ticks to a new contract low of 134.08. The move pushed the 20yr yield to its highest since June 1999 and the 30yr yield to a record high, with selling driven by reports that boosted December BoJ hike odds to above 65%.
• The bearish tone extended into USTs and Bunds (now trading the Mar’25 contract), which hit lows of 112-27 and 128.46, down eight and 16 ticks respectively. European newsflow was limited; French and Spanish supply saw no major reaction, with Spain’s auction strong and France’s slightly softer versus prior.
• For USTs, focus beyond the BoJ remains on the Fed Chair narrative. The FT noted bond investors have expressed concern to the Treasury over Hassett’s potential appointment due to his perceived alignment with the President. Kalshi odds for Hassett have slipped to ~75% from above 80% earlier in the week.
• Spain sells EUR 2.88bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-3.5bln 2.70% 2030, 0.85% 2037 Bono and EUR 0.481mln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 I/L.
• France sells EUR 5.06bln vs exp. EUR 3.5-5.5bln 4.75% 2035, 0.50% 2040, 4.50% 2041, 3.25% 2055 OAT.
• UK sells GBP 1bln 4.25% 2039 Gilt via tender: b/c 3.88x, average yield 4.813%.

• Crude benchmarks were firmer through the APAC session despite constructive comments from US and Russian officials after their recent Moscow meeting. Both benchmarks climbed to highs of USD 59.42/bbl (WTI) and USD 63.08/bbl (Brent) before easing to USD 59.11/bbl and USD 62.74/bbl as risk sentiment softened following the hawkish BoJ reports.
• XAU posts modest gains early in APAC, reaching USD 4,217/oz before sliding to USD 4,176/oz and remaining below USD 4.2k/oz. Despite a recent soft ADP print and mixed services PMI, gold has unwound its data-driven uptick as broader risk sentiment improves.
• 3M LME copper traded within a USD 11.43k–11.53k/t range in APAC before retreating from Wednesday’s all-time high of USD 11.54k/t, now at session lows around USD 11.35k/t. The pullback follows Rio Tinto’s raised 2025 copper production guidance and Goldman Sachs’ scepticism over the recent rally.

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• EZ Retail Sales YY (Oct) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.0%, Rev. 1.2%)
• EZ Retail Sales MM (Oct) 0.0% (Prev. -0.1%)
• EZ HCOB Construction PMI (Nov) 45.4 (Prev. 44)
• German HCOB Construction PMI (Nov) 45.2 (Prev. 42.8)
• French HCOB Construction PMI (Nov) 43.6 (Prev. 39.8)
• Italian HCOB Construction PMI (Nov) 48.2 (Prev. 50.7)
• UK S&P Global PMI: Composite (Nov) 50.1 (Prev. 51.4)
• UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov) 39.4 (Prev. 44.1)
• Swiss Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.7 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 48.2)
• Swiss Unemployment Rate Adj (Nov) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%)
• Swedish CPIF Excluding Energy Flash YY (Nov) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.80%)
• Swedish CPIF Flash YY (Nov) 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 3.10%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• BoE Decision Maker Panel Survey (Nov): Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation remained unchanged at 3.4%; Expected year-ahead wage growth rose slightly, by 0.1ppt to 3.8% in the three months to November

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel identified the body of the hostage received from Gaza as Thai national Sontisek Rintalk and said the body of the last Israeli hostage, Ran Gvili, remains in Gaza.
• Iraq has decided to freeze the money of "terrorists", including Hezbollah and the Houthis, via the Official Gazette

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said the meeting between Russian President Putin, Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner was a reasonably good meeting and "we'll see what happens", while he added that Russian President Putin wants to end the war.
• White House official said the US and Russia had a thorough and productive meeting, while Witkoff and Kusher briefed Trump after the meeting with Putin on Tuesday and are to meet Ukrainian representatives in Miami on Thursday.
• Russian President Putin said the meeting with US' Witkoff and Kushner was necessary and very useful, but it is "too early to say"; said Russia will take control of Donbas and Novorossiya by military means or otherwise.
• Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said the attacks on tankers in the Black Sea and CPC are aimed at disrupting the peace talks in Ukraine.
• A Ukrainian official has reportedly cautioned that Thursday's meeting between Ukraine's Umerov and US' Witkoff is a "debrief" by the US and not "a negotiating session...", FT reported.

OTHER

• Venezuela's President Maduro said he had a conversation with US President Trump about 10 days ago, while he added that steps are being taken towards a respectful dialogue between both countries.
• China is said to be gathering military ships across East Asia in a show of maritime force, according to Reuters sources

• Bitcoin resides in a narrow range under USD 94,000, whilst Ethereum trades on either side of USD 3,200.

• APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive momentum from Wall St, where all major indices rose amid a weaker dollar and softer yield environment, but with some of the gains in the region capped amid a quiet calendar and lack of major fresh macro catalysts.
• ASX 200 edged higher in rangebound trade with strength in materials and resources offsetting the losses in the real estate and consumer sectors, while the mining industry was among the outperformers aside from the gold-related stocks.
• Nikkei 225 rallied above the 50k level as the tech-related momentum in Japan continued, despite higher yields and bets for a December BoJ rate hike.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid weakness in auto names and after another liquidity drain by the PBoC, while PBoC Governor Pan noted in an Op-Ed that China must maintain prudent monetary policy and should avoid excessive policy adjustments.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• PBoC Governor Pan said in a People's Daily op-ed that China must maintain prudent monetary policy and should avoid excessive policy adjustments, while he also suggested preventing overreach from leading to long-term side effects of policies.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Balance on Goods (Oct) 4.4B vs. Exp. 4.2B (Prev. 3.9B)
• Australian Goods/Services Exports (Oct) 3.4% (Prev. 7.9%)
• Australian Goods/Services Imports (Oct) 2.0% (Prev. 1.1%)
• Australian Household Spending MM (Oct) 1.3% vs Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.3%)
• Australian Household Spending YY (Oct) 5.6% vs Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 5.1%)

• Hapag Lloyd (HLAG GY) CEO said global shipping demand could increase by 15-20% by 2030.

• The Trump admin is reportedly preparing to hold a high-level meeting to decide whether to provide licenses to allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to export the H200 to China, according to FT.
• US President Trump said the meeting between Russian President Putin, Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner was a reasonably good meeting and "we'll see what happens".
• Trump's aides and allies were said to be discussing the possibility of Treasury Secretary Bessent also leading the NEC, according to Bloomberg; Bond investors reportedly warned the US Treasury over picking NEC Director Hassett as Fed chair, according to FT.
• USD/JPY pared gains after hawkish BoJ sources via Reuters suggested the central bank is likely to raise interest rates in December.
• APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive momentum from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.2% on Wednesday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF, EZ Retail Sales, US Challenger Layoffs, Jobless Claims, Revelio Public Labor Statistics, Chicago Fed Labour Market Indicators (Final), Durable Goods, Factory Orders, Atlanta Fed GDP, BoE DMP. Speakers include BoEʼs Mann, ECBʼs Lane, Cipollone & de Guindos, Fedʼs Bowman. Supply from Spain, France & UK. Earnings from Kroger & Dollar General.

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

• US stocks trended higher throughout the session, although futures were initially knocked on reports in the Information that Microsoft (MSFT) is lowering AI software quotas as multiple sales teams failed to hit quotas for AI product sales last year, which hit MSFT and other AI names in the pre-market. However, stocks had started to pare before accelerating once MSFT denied the story and equities moved higher throughout the US session. The advances were led by the Russell 2000, while most sectors gained with outperformance in energy and financials, although tech and utilities closed in the red.
• SPX +0.30% at 6,850, NDX +0.20% at 25,607, DJI +0.86% at 47,883, RUT +1.91% at 2,512.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump said they will either let the USMCA expire or maybe work out another deal with Mexico and Canada.
• US halted plans to sanction the Chinese spy agency to maintain the trade truce, and the Trump administration will also not enact any major new export controls against China, while the Trump admin is preparing to hold a high-level meeting to decide whether to provide licenses to allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to export the H200 to China, according to FT.
• NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang said he met with US President Trump and discussed export controls generally in the meeting, while he supports export controls. Furthermore, Huang said they can't degrade chips that they sell to China, and he does not know if China would accept H200 chips.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump proposed to drastically slash fuel economy requirements through 2031, with the US proposing to require 34.5mpg average fuel economy by 2031, down from 50.4mpg under Biden rules, while it was separately reported that President Trump said they will have a big percentage of the chip market very soon.
• US President Trump's aides and allies were reportedly discussing the possibility of Treasury Secretary Bessent also leading the National Economic Council, according to Bloomberg.
• US President Trump's administration ordered an enhanced vetting of H-1B visa applicants, with new H-1B visa screening based on any involvement in censorship or free speech, according to the State Department memo.
• US Senate Democrats are expected to offer a three-year clean extension of Obamacare subsidies for next week’s health care vote in the Senate, which would align them with House Democrats who are pushing the same plan, according to sources cited by Punchbowl.
• Bond investors reportedly warned the US Treasury over picking NEC Director Hassett as Fed chair, according to FT. Some market participants were worried the candidate for the top central bank job would be swayed by President Trump on interest rates and were worried that Hassett could agitate for indiscriminate rate cuts even if inflation continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target, according to three people familiar with the conversations.

• APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive momentum from Wall Street, where all major indices rose amid a weaker dollar and softer yield environment, but with some of the gains in the region capped amid a quiet calendar and lack of major fresh macro catalysts.
• ASX 200 edged higher in rangebound trade with strength in materials and resources offsetting the losses in the real estate and consumer sectors, while the mining industry was among the outperformers aside from the gold-related stocks.
• Nikkei 225 rallied above the 50k level as the tech-related momentum in Japan continued, despite higher yields and bets for a December BoJ rate hike.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid weakness in auto names and after another liquidity drain by the PBoC, while PBoC Governor Pan noted in an Op-Ed that China must maintain prudent monetary policy and should avoid excessive policy adjustments.
• US equity futures paused overnight after climbing throughout most of the US trading session.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.2% on Wednesday.

• DXY found some mild respite after suffering yesterday amid the prospect of a more dovish Fed Chair in 2026 and following the mixed data releases in which ADP printed at a surprise contraction but ISM Services PMI beat on the headline, while there are more data releases scheduled ahead including US Challenger Layoffs, Jobless Claims, Revelio Public Labor Statistics, Chicago Fed Labour Market Indicators, Durable Goods and Factory Orders.
• EUR/USD was rangebound but held on to most of the prior day's spoils after benefitting from the recent dollar weakness, while the latest comments from ECB officials did little to shift the dial, including Lagarde who stated growth in economic activity should benefit from increased household spending and a resilient, more inclusive labour market, as well as noted they are not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• GBP/USD slightly eased back after outperforming yesterday amid strength in cyclical currencies and firm UK Services PMI.
• USD/JPY initially rebounded from a trough near the 155.00 level, with the recovery helped by the outperformance in Japan. The pair later pared gains after hawkish BoJ sources suggested the central bank is likely to raise interest rates in December.
• Antipodeans were contained amid a lack of tier-1 data and with headwinds in CNH after the PBoC set a weaker-than-expected yuan fix.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0733 vs exp. 7.0554 (Prev. 7.0754)

• 10yr UST futures traded subdued after recent oscillations, which coincided with mixed US data releases and expectations of a more dovish Fed Chair next year, while it was reported that some bond investors warned the US Treasury over picking NEC Director Hassett for the top Fed job.
• Bund futures struggled for direction amid a lack of pertinent catalysts and ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales data.
• 10yr JGB futures retreated amid increased bets of a BoJ December rate hike, with money markets pricing a 66% chance of a 25bps hike later this month, while the 20yr JGB yield rose to its highest since June 1999, and the 30yr JGB yield was at a record high. Some of the moves were then later pared with support seen in JGBs after a 30yr auction, although this was only brief, and JGBs then resumed their downward trend.

• Crude futures were kept afloat, although the upside was capped following yesterday's choppy performance as remarks from US and Russian officials regarding their recent meeting were positive but suggested a lack of solid breakthrough, while US envoys are set to meet with Ukrainian representatives later today.
• Spot gold initially eked out mild gains with early support seen around the USD 4,200/oz level, but then faded the gains with price action rangebound after the prior day's indecisive performance and as the dollar got some respite from the recent selling.
• Copper futures added on to yesterday's spoils, which were facilitated by the constructive mood stateside, while Shanghai's most active copper contract climbed to a record high.

• Bitcoin took a breather following its recent rebound and was stalled by resistance at the USD 94,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Chinese President Xi said in a meeting with French President Macron that China and France are far-sighted, responsible and independent major countries, while he added that China and France should uphold multilateralism and that China is willing to eliminate interferences and stick to equal dialogues with France. Xi also commented that both countries should support each other on core interests and agreed to expand practical cooperation, as well as consolidate cooperation on airspace and nuclear energy. Furthermore, he said both countries aim to expand two-way investment and that China will expand domestic demand in the 15th five-year plan and will also expand market access and opening-up.
• PBoC Governor Pan said in a People's Daily op-ed that China must maintain prudent monetary policy and should avoid excessive policy adjustments, while he also suggested preventing overreach from leading to long-term side effects of policies.
• BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated that they can only estimate the neutral rate with a wide range thus far, while he added they cannot specify a terminal rate and are working on narrowing the estimate on the neutral interest rate with the findings to be disclosed if successful. Furthermore, he said for now, they have to work with the current estimate set in a fairly wide range and there is uncertainty on how far interest rates can eventually be raised.
• BoJ is likely to raise interest rates in December, a decision Japan's government will likely tolerate, according to sources cited by Reuters.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Balance on Goods (Oct) 4.4B vs. Exp. 4.2B (Prev. 3.9B)
• Australian Goods/Services Exports (Oct) 3.4% (Prev. 7.9%)
• Australian Goods/Services Imports (Oct) 2.0% (Prev. 1.1%)
• Australian Household Spending MM (Oct) 1.3% vs Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.3%)
• Australian Household Spending YY (Oct) 5.6% vs Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 5.1%)

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli PM's office said Lebanon's ceasefire monitoring committee meeting saw agreement on formulating ideas to promote economic cooperation between Lebanon and Israel. Israel said it clarified that Hezbollah disarmament is obligatory, with no connection to promoting cooperation on economic issues, while parties agreed on holding a follow-up discussion.
• Israel identified the body of the hostage received from Gaza as Thai national Sontisek Rintalk and said the body of the last Israeli hostage, Ran Gvili, remains in Gaza.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said the meeting between Russian President Putin, Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner was a reasonably good meeting and "we'll see what happens", while he added that Russian President Putin wants to end the war.
• White House official said the US and Russia had a thorough and productive meeting, while Witkoff and Kusher briefed Trump after the meeting with Putin on Tuesday and are to meet Ukrainian representatives in Miami on Thursday.

OTHER

• Venezuela's President Maduro said he had a conversation with US President Trump about 10 days ago, while he added that steps are being taken towards a respectful dialogue between both countries.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Spain's Economy Minister said they will only use about 25% of loans available from EU recovery funds, and that Spain has not seen any significant impact at a macro level from US tariffs, while Spain is confident that the EU-Mercosur trade deal can be signed by year-end.

• European bourses are broadly firmer, alongside modest strength across US equity futures; Marvell (+10%) benefits following its upbeat outlook for data-centre growth.
• DXY is softer and towards the round 99.00 mark as Trump referred to Hassett as the "potential" next Fed Chair, GBP top G10 performer, whilst CHF was briefly pressured post-CPI.
• Fixed benchmarks firmer but off highs as crude climbs. US yields steeper on Trump's Fed commentary.
• Crude grinds higher as traders digest the lack of progress from the Putin-Witkoff meeting; XAU trades rangebound; Copper extends to new ATHs.
• Looking ahead, US Services/Composite PMI Final (Nov), US ISM Services PMI (Nov), ADP National Employment (Nov), Import Prices (Sep), Industrial Production (Sep), NBP Policy Announcement, Speakers including BoE's Mann, ECB’s Lagarde, Earnings from Salesforce, Snowflake, Dollar Tree.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump said they will give refunds out of the tariffs and believes they won't have income tax to pay in the near future.
• US President Trump thanked Chinese President Xi for soybean purchases. It was separately reported that at least six shipments of US soybeans for China are to load at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December, while the first US sorghum cargo to China since March is also loading at the Gulf Coast terminal, and a second cargo is due next week.
• US President Trump posted that he had a very productive call with Brazilian President Lula and "Among the things discussed were Trade, how our Countries could work together to stop Organized Crime, Sanctions imposed on various Brazilian dignitaries, Tariffs, and various other items." Trump added he believes "it set the stage for very good dialogue and agreement long into the future... Much good will come out of this newly formed partnership!"
• EU is said to be pushing for 70% of critical goods to be made in Europe, according to FT.
• Annual negotiations between Chinese copper smelters and Antofagasta (ANTO LN) have not progressed, as Chinese smelters remain determined to avoid negative fees, via Bloomberg citing sources

• European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened with modest gains, following on from a positive session on Wall St. in Tuesday's session. Price action this morning has been mixed, with a few indices trading rangebound whilst others have gradually edged higher.
• European sectors are split down the middle. Retail leads the pile (buoyed by Inditex +8.50% post-earnings), whilst Energy and Tech complete the top three. Sentiment for the latter has been boosted after positive results from Marvell, which gains in pre-market trade. To the downside resides Insurance, and Optimised Personal Care.
• US equity futures (ES +0.2% NQ +0.2% RTY +0.3%) are incrementally firmer across the board, attempting to build on the upside seen in the prior session. Focus has been on the likes of Marvell (+9.3%) and CrowdStrike (-2%) post-earnings, with the former benefiting following its upbeat outlook for data-centre growth that exceeded analysts’ expectations.
• OpenAI has reported that ChatGPT is seeing elevated errors for business and enterprise use, via Bloomberg; OpenAI responded by saying it is not aware of any issues.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

• DXY is softer today and trades towards the lower end of a 98.99 to 99.30 range. G10s are mostly stronger vs the Dollar, albeit to varying degrees. For the USD specifically, all focus has been on Fed developments, and in particular, President Trump hinting that White House NEC Director Hassett as the “potential” next Fed Chair. Moreover, it was reported in the WSJ that Trump aides have cancelled a number of Fed Chair interviews, after the POTUS said he had made up his mind. JD Vance was reportedly scheduled to meet with more candidates today, though those were cancelled, with the WSJ sources suggesting that it was currently unclear if they would be rescheduled. Odds of a Hassett chair nomination currently reside around 86% vs 75% earlier this week, on Kalshi. Ahead focus turns to US ADP National Employment and then ISM Services.
• EUR firmer and trades at the upper end of a 1.1622 to 1.1663 range. Benefiting from the weaker Dollar and softer energy prices. The single currency was little moved on EZ Final PMI metrics, which were revised slightly higher; the internal report said that the ECB will likely continue to communicate holding steady on rates. Most recently the EUR has notched fresh peaks, but without a clear catalyst; potentially a factor of a slight bounce in EUR/GBP, which gave the EUR/USD a bid.
• Elsewhere, GBP was initially gaining modestly vs the USD, before catching a recent bid, taking Cable to a fresh 1.3279 peak where it currently resides, lifting GBP/JPY closer to the key 207.20 mark and weighing on EUR/GBP. No catalyst for that upside. Thereafter, the GBP took another leg higher on the upwardly revised PMI metrics.
• Uneventful trade for USD/JPY this morning, and ultimately moving at the whim of the Dollar. Currently trading at the lower end of a relatively narrow 155.52 to 155.90 range, awaiting key US data later.
• Earlier, CHF was pressured after a cooler-than-expected inflation report which saw Y/Y printed below expected at 0.0% whilst the M/M printed in-line. In an immediate reaction, EUR/CHF lifted from 0.9332 to 0.9339; the upside was ultimately fairly muted given there were a number of analysts also expecting a 0.0% Y/Y print (which would be in-line). Moreover, traders will look towards the SNB meeting next week; policymakers have significantly raised the bar for a sub-0% policy rate, and while today’s outturn factors on the dovish side, it is unlikely to warrant a return to NIRP, focus instead on inflation forecast adjustments and FX language. Though, a move back to NIRP cannot be ruled out.
• Click for NY OpEx Details

• For the most part, a session of modest gains for fixed benchmarks, ranges limited, awaiting newsflow later in the session. More recently, benchmarks have reverted back to lows and are threatening a move into the red, potentially amid yield upside on continued Crude gains.
• USTs got to a 113-01+ peak, firmer by just under five ticks at best. Yields lower across the curve at first, but the long end moving higher as the morning continues and the steepening bias extends. The main driver being the WSJ reporting that the final Fed Chair interviews have been cancelled and Trump announcing that he will make an announcement early-2026, steepening began as Trump referred to Hassett as the "potential" next Fed Chair.
• Bunds off best in a 128.25-41 band. The benchmark has been firmer for the entire morning, saw some fleeting pressure on upwardly-revised Final PMIs, but for the most part has been choppy and directionless in the mentioned band, before succumbing to what appears to be energy-induced pressure in recent trade.
• A similar story for Gilts. No move to the region's own PMIs, revised higher. Internal commentary was downbeat, though we wait to see how this shakes out in the post-Budget metrics. Commentary also pointed to wage pressure, a point that factors against BoE easing in December, though a cut appears increasingly likely barring a shock in the November CPI print due just before the December announcement. Off highs but firmer by around 10 ticks in a 91.22-50 band.
• UK sells GBP 4.75bln 4.00% 2029 Gilt: b/c 3.10x (prev. 3.06x), avg. yield 3.855% (prev. 3.845%), tail 0.4bps (prev. 0.4bps)

• WTI and Brent dipped to a low of USD 58.38/bbl and USD 62.19/bbl, respectively, in the early hours of the APAC session. They have gradually trended higher throughout the European session thus far, as traders react to the lack of significant progress from the Putin-Witkoff meeting in Moscow. Benchmarks have steadily bid c. USD 1.00/bbl from its session lows and are currently trading back above USD 59/bbl and USD 63/bbl. Brent Feb'26 currently trading at the upper end of a USD 62.18-63.37/bbl range.
• Dutch TTF has failed to bid higher following the reports that the EU have reached a deal on phasing out Russian gas imports by 2027. The deal is caveated with a possible extension to the ban implementation in case of difficulty filling gas storage. After opening the session at EUR 28.15/MWh, Dutch TTF has fallen lower and is currently trading near session lows at EUR 27.74/MWh.
• Spot XAU has traded on both sides of the unchanged mark, as the yellow metal struggled to find direction at the start of the European session. XAU followed on from the bid higher in Tuesday's US session and peaked at USD 4229/oz in the early hours of APAC trade. As the European session got underway, the yellow metal dipped back below USD 4200/oz as the market continues to digest the possibility of Kevin Hassett as the new Fed Chair.
• 3M LME Copper has started the European session on the frontfoot and is currently trading at USD 11.41k/t, extending to fresh ATHs. This comes as demand for the red metal continues to grow, shown by the spike in requests to withdraw inventories from LME warehouses. Supply disruptions and front-running of possible import tariffs into the US have been the theme in 2025 that has driven Copper to record highs.
• Ukraine has hit Russia's Druzhba oil pipeline in the Tambov region, according to Reuters sources.

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• EU HCOB Services Final PMI (Nov) 53.6 vs. Exp. 53.1 (Prev. 53.1); Composite Final PMI (Nov) 52.8 vs. Exp. 52.4 (Prev. 52.4)
• EU Producer Prices MM (Oct) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.1%); Producer Prices YY (Oct) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -0.2%)
• UK S&P Global Services PMI (Nov) 51.3 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.5); Composite Output (Nov) 51.2 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.5)
• Swiss CPI YY (Nov) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%); CPI MM (Nov) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.3%)
• Spanish Services PMI (Nov) 55.6 vs. Exp. 56.1 (Prev. 56.6)
• French HCOB Services PMI (Nov) 51.4 vs. Exp. 50.8 (Prev. 50.8); Composite PMI (Nov) 50.4 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 49.9)
• Italian HCOB Composite PMI (Nov) 53.8 vs. Exp. 53.2 (Prev. 53.1); Services PMI (Nov) 55.0 vs. Exp. 54 (Prev. 54)
• German HCOB Composite Final PMI (Nov) 52.4 vs. Exp. 52.1 (Prev. 52.1); Services PMI (Nov) 53.1 vs. Exp. 52.7 (Prev. 52.7)
• Turkish CPI YY (Nov) 31.07% vs. Exp. 31.6% (Prev. 32.87%); CPI MM (Nov) 0.87% vs. Exp. 1.25% (Prev. 2.55%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• French Parliamentary debate on the increases to the General Social Contribution on capital income, part of the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS), will be discussed later this week after the revenue component, Politico reports.
• ECB's Lane says they have a clear orientation for monetary policy conduct. On inflation "...a sufficiently large and persistent deviation from the target requires a monetary policy response, regardless of its origin". "In summary, this discussion has emphasised that the appropriate monetary policy response to an inflation deviation from the target is context specific and requires a careful analysis of a broad set of considerations. Of course, the capacity to consider “looking through” some types of inflation deviations depends on a strong institutional commitment to delivering the symmetric inflation target over the medium term, underpinning firmly-anchored medium-term inflation expectations".

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump posted that "Any and all Documents, Proclamations, Executive Orders, Memorandums, or Contracts, signed by Order of the now infamous and unauthorized “AUTOPEN,” within the Administration of Joseph R. Biden Jr., are hereby null, void, and of no further force or effect. Anyone receiving “Pardons,” “Commutations,” or any other Legal Document so signed, please be advised that said Document has been fully and completely terminated."
• US judge blocked the Trump admin from enforcing a law depriving Planned Parenthood of Medicaid funding in 22 states.
• US paused all immigration applications filed by immigrants from 19 countries it restricted from travel to the US earlier this year, according to NYT.
• BofA Total Card Spending (w/e Nov 29th) +0.2% (prev. +2.4% avg. in October); highlights that the slowdown was broad based and higher core goods inflation meant real spending was ever weaker.

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel's COGAT says the Rafah crossing will open in the coming days for Palestinians to exit from Gaza to Egypt.
• Russia's Kremlin says it would be wrong to say that President Putin rejected the US' peace plan, adds that Russia highly values US President Trump's political will and are trying to find a resolution.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Russian President Putin's envoy Dmitriev described talks with the US in Moscow as productive after Russian President Putin's meeting with US Special Envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner lasted for five hours.
• Russian Kremlin aide Ushakov said the conversation between Russian President Putin and US Special Envoy Witkoff was useful, constructive and meaningful and that they discussed several options for Ukraine's settlement plan, although he stated that they are no closer to resolving the crisis in Ukraine, and there is much work to be done. Ushakov said Putin asked to convey a number of important political signals to Trump and they agreed with their American colleagues not to disclose the substance of the negotiations that took place with the discussion confidential. Furthermore, he said American representatives will return to the US, present their findings to President Trump and contact the Russian side, while they also discussed prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and the US.
• European Commission is to make a legal proposal this week to use Russia's frozen assets for a Ukraine loan, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• German Foreign Minister Wadephul says they are to procure an additional USD 200mln worth of military equipment for Ukraine across two packages
• EU Ambassadors meeting has been moved forward to 13:30GMT (prev. 17:45GMT), regarding the use of frozen Russian assets for a Ukraine reparation loan, via Politico. Diplomats cited say that Commission President von der Leyen intends to use Article 122, "solidarity in economic emergencies"; elaborating that this means the clause could be deployed to extend the sanctions renewal period from six months to three years, potentially bypassing the unanimity requirement.
• Belgium Foreign Minister says, re. the use of frozen Russian assets, "the texts the Commission will table today do not address our concerns in a satisfactory manner. It is not acceptable to use the money and leave us alone facing the risks".

OTHER

• US President Trump signed into law a measure forcing the State Department to review guidelines for the country’s engagement with Taiwan, according to the White House.
• South Korean President Lee said communication is completely cut off between South Korea and North Korea, while he added that North Korea keeps refusing our efforts to talk. Lee also commented that South Korea can look into the issue of joint exercises with the US to help create grounds for dialogue between the US and North Korea, as well as stated that they will not veer off the road towards denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.

• Bitcoin is on a strong footing today, after having surged beyond USD 93K; Ethereum now back above USD 3k.

• APAC stocks were mixed, with the region only partially sustaining the positive momentum from Wall St, where tech and crypto rebounded.
• ASX 200 traded marginally higher but with gains limited as participants also reflected on disappointing Australian GDP data.
• Nikkei 225 rallied to back above the 50k level as it benefitted from tech-related momentum.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined after the Chinese tech giants failed to join in the spoils seen in global peers and after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity through its daily open market operations, while participants also digested the latest Chinese RatingDog Services and Composite PMI data, which continued to show an expansion in activity, albeit at a slower-than-previous pace.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China was reported to unveil a plan to boost tourism and aviation sectors and will strengthen inbound tourism air routes, while it will continue to ease entry and travel for foreign tourists and will boost tourism through coordinated consumption policies.
  • DigiTimes reports that memory spot prices surged in November, despite Samsung Electronics' (005930 KS) RDIMM release marginally easing shortages, as suppliers hiked contract prices significantly. "Some industry insiders reveal that after Samsung halted pricing quotes in October, it resumed DRAM chip quotations mid-November with average contract price increases of 30-40%." "Sources indicate US-based NAND giants raised prices repeatedly, with November quotes 100-150% above October." "Expectations point to even steeper hikes in the first quarter of 2026."
  • "Samsung Electronics' (005930 KS) final HBM4 samples are scheduled to undergo 2.5D packaging and finished product testing starting this month," via zdnet citing sources
  • China is reportedly likely to maintain the annual growth target of around 5% in 2026, via Reuters citing sources; some advisors cited proposed a 4.5-5.0% target
  • India's Chief Economic Adviser says he's not losing sleep over the INR weakening

DATA RECAP

• Chinese RatingDog Services PMI (Nov) 52.1 vs. Exp. 52.1 (Prev. 52.6)
• Chinese RatingDog Composite PMI (Nov) 51.2 (Prev. 51.8)
• Australian Real GDP QQ SA (Q3) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.6%)
• Australian Real GDP YY SA (Q3) 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 1.8%)
• China Preliminary Retail Passenger Vehicle Sales for November +1% (prev. -0.1%), +7% Y/Y (prev. -0.1%), via PCA.

• USD hit and US yield curve steeper as Trump referred to Hassett as the "potential" next Fed Chair
• APAC stocks mixed, only partially sustaining the Wall St. handover, where the NQ outperformed
• EUR and GBP both edged higher, AUD shrugged off disappointing Q3 GDP
• Crude contained, Kremlin said talks with the US were constructive but are no closer to resolving the situation
• Looking ahead, highlights include EZ/UK/US Services/Composite PMI Final (Nov), Swiss CPI (Nov), US ISM Services PMI (Nov), ADP National Employment (Nov), Import Prices (Sep), Industrial Production (Sep), NBP Policy Announcement, Speakers including BoE's Mann, ECB’s Lagarde & Lane, Supply from UK, Earnings from Salesforce, Snowflake, Dollar Tree, Macy's & Inditex.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

• US stocks closed the day mostly in the green with outperformance in the Nasdaq, while Industrials, Tech and Communications outperformed. There were several developments on AI, with OpenAI declaring a "code red" for workers to shift focus to improve ChatGPT in the face of threats from other chatbots. Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN) announced its new AI chip, which some labelled as rushed but others labelled as a threat to NVIDIA (NVDA). The Amazon AI chip announcement led to downside in US equities, but that later reversed. Aside from AI, focus was on the potential next Fed Chair. US President Trump announced he would name Powell's successor in early 2026, which led to a brief Dollar strength and a flattening of the Treasury curve as participants speculated whether Hassett is still the front-runner. However, Trump later announced he had narrowed his choice down to one, and then referred to Hassett as the "potential" next Fed Chair, which in turn saw the Dollar move to lows while the curve steepened again.
• SPX +0.25% at 6,829, NDX +0.84% at 25,556, DJI +0.39% at 47,474, RUT -0.17% at 2,465.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump said they will give refunds out of the tariffs and believes they won't have income tax to pay in the near future.
• US President Trump thanked Chinese President Xi for soybean purchases. It was separately reported that at least six shipments of US soybeans for China are to load at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December, while the first US sorghum cargo to China since March is also loading at the Gulf Coast terminal, and a second cargo is due next week.
• US President Trump posted that he had a very productive call with Brazilian President Lula and "Among the things discussed were Trade, how our Countries could work together to stop Organized Crime, Sanctions imposed on various Brazilian dignitaries, Tariffs, and various other items." Trump added he believes "it set the stage for very good dialogue and agreement long into the future... Much good will come out of this newly formed partnership!"
• Brazil's Presidential Palace said President Lula told US President Trump that Brazil wants to progress in tariff talks regarding other products and that both countries need to strengthen cooperation to fight internal organised crime.
• EU is said to be pushing for 70% of critical goods to be made in Europe, according to FT.
• Dutch economy minister cancelled a plan to travel to China in December but has "arrangements" with China on a possible visit to discuss Nexperia.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump said he will be announcing Fed Chair in early 2026, while he commented that even JPM's Dimon said Powell should reduce rates and reiterated that US Treasury Secretary Bessent doesn't want the job. It was later reported that President Trump said they looked at ten Fed candidates and have it down to one, while he referred to NEC Director Hassett as a potential Fed chair.
• US President Trump posted that "Any and all Documents, Proclamations, Executive Orders, Memorandums, or Contracts, signed by Order of the now infamous and unauthorized “AUTOPEN,” within the Administration of Joseph R. Biden Jr., are hereby null, void, and of no further force or effect. Anyone receiving “Pardons,” “Commutations,” or any other Legal Document so signed, please be advised that said Document has been fully and completely terminated."
• US President Trump said Trump Accounts are to start on 4th July 2026 and that eligible children born in 2025–2028 may receive a USD 1,000 government contribution to jump-start long-term savings.
• US President Trump to hold the White House meeting with auto executives on Wednesday to announce the rollback of vehicle fuel standards, with Ford (F), General Motors (GM), and Stellantis (STLA) to be at the event. It was separately reported that Trump said something is going to happen on health care, but it won't be easy.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will have low-inflationary growth and that inflation is going to roll next year.
• USDA Secretary Rollins said a bridge payment will be announced next week to help farmers.
• US judge blocked the Trump admin from enforcing a law depriving Planned Parenthood of Medicaid funding in 22 states.
• US paused all immigration applications filed by immigrants from 19 countries it restricted from travel to the US earlier this year, according to NYT.

• APAC stocks were mixed, with the region only partially sustaining the positive momentum from Wall St, where tech and crypto rebounded.
• ASX 200 traded marginally higher but with gains limited as participants also reflected on disappointing Australian GDP data.
• Nikkei 225 rallied to back above the 50k level as it benefitted from tech-related momentum.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined after the Chinese tech giants failed to join in the spoils seen in global peers and after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity through its daily open market operations, while participants also digested the latest Chinese RatingDog Services and Composite PMI data, which continued to show an expansion in activity, albeit at a slower-than-previous pace.
• US equity futures extended on the prior day's gains but with further upside limited amid the mixed risk appetite in Asia.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Tuesday.

• DXY marginally softened with trade confined to relatively tight parameters, while there were remarks from US President Trump who said he will announce his pick for Fed Chair in early 2026 (was expected by year-end) and referred to NEC Director Hassett as the "potential Fed Chair".
• EUR/USD gradually edged higher after rebounding yesterday from a brief dip beneath 1.1600, while the recent inflation data from the bloc was mixed and, along with the latest ECB rhetoric, had little impact on rate expectations.
• GBP/USD eked slight gains after breaking out of yesterday's range on what had been a choppy performance, but with the upside capped by a lack of major catalysts and after rhetoric from BoE Governor Bailey provided very little incrementally.
• USD/JPY mildly eased back following a brief return to the 156.00 handle, but with the downside cushioned in the absence of any tier-1 data from Japan and amid the positive sentiment seen in Tokyo stocks.
• Antipodeans were firmer, AUD/USD ultimately shrugging off the disappointing Q3 GDP data from Australia, which initially pressured the currency pair in a knee-jerk reaction, although the moves were then reversed shortly after as the data had little influence on money market pricing, which continued to lean heavily towards the RBA keeping rates unchanged at next week's meeting.

• 10yr UST futures remained afloat after the prior day's steepening and with upside facilitated by comments from US President Trump, who said he will be announcing the next Fed Chair pick in early 2026, but then later introduced NEC Director Hassett as the potential Fed Chair.
• Bund futures were rangebound following yesterday's indecision and mixed EU inflation, while participants await ECB rhetoric.
• 10yr JGB futures demand was subdued amid upside in yields and outperformance in Japanese stocks.

• Crude futures were contained after ultimately trickling lower yesterday, and with demand not helped by the mostly bearish private sector inventory data. On the geopolitical front, the five-hour meeting between Russian President Putin and US Special Envoy Witkoff was described by Kremlin aide Ushakov as useful, constructive and meaningful, in which they discussed several options for Ukraine's settlement plan, although they were said to be no closer to resolving the Ukraine crisis, while it was also reported that the EU reached a deal on phasing out Russian gas imports by 2027.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +2.5mln (exp. -0.8mln), Distillate +2.9mln (exp. +0.7mln), Gasoline +3.1mln (exp.+1.5mln), Cushing -0.1mln.
• EU reportedly reached a deal on phasing out Russian gas imports by 2027.
• Spot gold rebounded from the prior day's trough and reverted to above the USD 4,200/oz level, but later faltered and gave back its gains in tandem with the late selling pressure in silver, despite the lack of news catalysts behind the move.
• Copper futures edged mild gains but with the upside capped amid the ultimately mixed risk appetite and as Chinese markets lagged.

• Bitcoin steadily climbed throughout the session and returned to above the USD 93,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China was reported to unveil a plan to boost tourism and aviation sectors and will strengthen inbound tourism air routes, while it will continue to ease entry and travel for foreign tourists and will boost tourism through coordinated consumption policies.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese RatingDog Services PMI (Nov) 52.1 vs. Exp. 52.1 (Prev. 52.6)
• Chinese RatingDog Composite PMI (Nov) 51.2 (Prev. 51.8)
• Australian Real GDP QQ SA (Q3) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.6%)
• Australian Real GDP YY SA (Q3) 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 1.8%)

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Russian President Putin's envoy Dmitriev described talks with the US in Moscow as productive after Russian President Putin's meeting with US Special Envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner lasted for five hours.
• Russian Kremlin aide Ushakov said the conversation between Russian President Putin and US Special Envoy Witkoff was useful, constructive and meaningful and that they discussed several options for Ukraine's settlement plan, although he stated that they are no closer to resolving the crisis in Ukraine, and there is much work to be done. Ushakov said Putin asked to convey a number of important political signals to Trump and they agreed with their American colleagues not to disclose the substance of the negotiations that took place with the discussion confidential. Furthermore, he said American representatives will return to the US, present their findings to President Trump and contact the Russian side, while they also discussed prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and the US.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he can see some optimism in the speed of the negotiations and US interest in the process, while he added they don't have alternatives to the use of Russian assets to finance Ukraine. Furthermore, he responded 'yes' when asked if he is afraid that the US might lose interest in the process, and noted the goal of Russia is for the US to withdraw from engagement with Ukraine.
• Ukraine's Foreign Minister said Russian President Putin made statements that demonstrate he does not plan to end the war, and it is time to force Russia to end the war.
• US President Trump said Ukraine is not an easy situation and commented, "what a mess", while he added that their people were over in Russia trying to settle it.
• European Commission is to make a legal proposal this week to use Russia's frozen assets for a Ukraine loan, according to sources cited by Reuters.

OTHER

• US President Trump said they still haven't gotten a lot of information and did not know about the second strike on the Venezuelan boat, while he also commented that if they have to attack drug traffickers on land, they will, and are to start strikes on land soon which is much easier. Furthermore, he said any country drug trafficking to the US is subject to attack.
• US War Secretary Hegseth said they've only just begun striking narco traffickers and there had recently been a pause on strikes because it's difficult to find boats right now.
• Colombia's President said any US attack on its sovereignty would be a declaration of war.
• US President Trump signed into law a measure forcing the State Department to review guidelines for the country’s engagement with Taiwan, according to the White House.
• South Korean President Lee said communication is completely cut off between South Korea and North Korea, while he added that North Korea keeps refusing our efforts to talk. Lee also commented that South Korea can look into the issue of joint exercises with the US to help create grounds for dialogue between the US and North Korea, as well as stated that they will not veer off the road towards denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.

• European bourses started the morning flat/modestly firmer, but have since sauntered to session highs; US equity futures also modestly firmer.
• OpenAI CEO Altman declares a code red to combat threats to ChatGPT and plans to delay other initiatives such as advertising, according to The Information.
• DXY is modestly firmer, AUD initially outperformed after ANZ scaled back rate cut bets for 2026, but is now flat amidst USD-strength, USD/JPY rises back towards 156.00.
• Bonds are flat/modestly lower, Bunds little moved to EZ HICP whilst Gilts lag.
• Crude essentially flat in rangebound trade, XAU slips below USD 4.2k/oz.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, Earnings from Marvell & CrowdStrike.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• Chinese rare-earth magnet companies are reportedly finding workarounds to their government’s export restrictions, as they seek to keep sales flowing to Western buyers, according to WSJ.
• China reportedly issues first rare earth magnet general export licence after the Trump-Xi meeting, according to Reuters sources
• Exxon (XOM) is reportedly in talks with Iraq over purchasing Lukoil's stake in the West Qurna 2 oilfield, via Reuters citing sources.
• Russia's Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov says that Russia continues to be an important supplier of energy to India on a competitive basis. Looking at possibilities to increase imports from India. A decrease in oil trade volumes can be decreased for a brief period of time.

• European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) started the session flat/incrementally firmer before then catching a bid as the morning progressed; no clear driver for the upside, but a move which has sustained as indices reside near peaks.
• European sectors hold a slight positive bias. Banks take the top spot, with gains broad-based across the UK and Europe, but traders may also be digesting the latest update via the BoE, where it lowered capital requirements for UK banks as they pass stress tests. Media is found at the foot of the pile, joined closely by Travel & Leisure.
• US equity futures (ES +0.1% NQ +0.2% RTY +0.5%) initially mildly lower but then moved modestly into the green alongside the strength seen in Europe. The focus this morning has been on OpenAI's Altman, who declared a "code red", as he sees a rising threat to ChatGPT from Google.
• BNP Paribas sees end-2026 S&P 500 at 7,500 (vs 6,812.63 Monday close), sees end-2026 Stoxx 600 at 650 (vs current 576.04).
• US FDA is to stop requiring pharmaceutical firms to use primates for some safety studies, via FT.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

• DXY and most G10 FX are uneventful in relatively quiet trade, with a similar lack of macro drivers seen during APAC hours. Specifically, DXY resides in a narrow 99.38-99.52 parameter, with ING calling for a lower dollar this week - "we expect that the remainder of the week will validate the market’s dovish pricing for next week’s Fed meeting". As it stands, the index trades at the upper end of the mentioned ranges, with recent strength thanks to some pressure seen in the GBP.
• EUR traded flat ahead of the EZ HICP metrics, and then was little moved on the release itself. Headline printed a touch above expected at 2.20% (exp. 2.10%) whilst the Services figure also ticked higher from the prior month. Overall, given the figures were near enough in line with expectations, there was little follow-through into the single-currency and held within a 1.1604 to 1.1616 range, before then touching 1.1600 as the USD picked up a touch.
• USD/JPY outperforms amid a pick-up in risk sentiment and after the pair's volatile Monday session, which saw a slump to 154.66 lows before bouncing back up and clear of 155.50 and then 156.00, with the pair eyeing yesterday's 156.15 peak as the near-term resistance level, and thereafter Black Friday's 156.58 high.
• GBP traded flat against the USD, before then moving lower in recent trade. Nothing behind the latest bout of pressure, but it does come after Cable breached 1.3200 to the downside, and then continued to tumble to make a fresh trough at 1.3180 (though it is a moving target).
• AUD outperforms after ANZ removed its call for an RBA cut in H1-2026, now sees the RBA on an "extended pause" through 2026. As a reminder, CBA and NAB also expect the RBA to be on hold for an extended period of time/foreseeable future. Westpac continues to expect two 2026 cuts, touting May and August for those. AUD/NZD marginally eclipsed 1.1450, from a 1.1418 trough.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0794 vs exp. 7.0746 (Prev. 7.0759)

• A lack of fresh drivers for USTs. The March contract is near-enough flat in a narrow 112-25 to 112-29 band. Overnight, WSJ's Timiraos wrote that, regarding the search for the next Fed Chair, "Unofficially, the process seems to be all but over, with President Trump appearing to favour longtime adviser Kevin Hassett.".
• Bund Dec'25 is contained in a thin 128.18-35 band this morning. Specifics light. No move in Bunds on the EZ Flash HICP for November, the headline came in hotter-than-expected and ticked up from the prior, while Services lifted from the previous rate. Overall, the hotter-than-expected series chimes with the view that the ECB's easing cycle has likely concluded.
• Gilts underperform. If the move continues, we look to support for the Gilt Mar'26 contract at 90.53, a double-bottom from the session of and before the Budget. Currently, the low is 90.98, taking out Monday's base by a tick. A move that lifted the UK 10yr yield back above the 4.5% mark. However, this pressure proved somewhat fleeting as the benchmark bounced and has made its way back to the unchanged mark. Nothing fresh, though the OBR briefing is underway and we note remarks from BoE officials on the morning's FSR/FPC briefings.
• Saudi National Bank is seeking a USD 1bln syndicated loan, via Bloomberg. Loan is being syndicated to the broader market, incl. Asia, according to sources cited.
• JGB's led overnight after a strong 10yr auction and in a bit of a breather from the largely Ueda-induced selling seen at the start of the week. To a 134.72 peak with gains of just over 20 ticks at best.
• UK sells GBP 1bln 0.125% 2031 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.88x (prev. 3.49x), real yield 0.949% (prev. 0.889%)
• Germany sells EUR 3.563bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.00% 2027 Schatz: b/c 1.7x (prev. 1.7x), average yield 2.05% (prev. 1.98%), retention 20.82% (prev. 24.68%)

• WTI and Brent continue to trade within Monday's post-OPEC range of USD 58.83-59.97/bbl and USD 62.69-63.82/bbl, respectively, as a pause in output hike and rising geopolitical concerns continue to support crude prices in the near term. WTI and Brent peaked at the start of the APAC session at USD 59.67/bbl and 63.36/bbl before falling to troughs of 59.09/bbl and 62.88/bbl.
• XAU and XAG traded muted at the start of the European session. Oscillated in a tight USD 4201-4236/oz and USD 56.60-58/oz band, respectively. More recently, the yellow metal has fallen to make fresh session troughs of USD 4,181/oz - a move which lacked catalysts, but technicians highlight accelerating selling pressure after spot gold slipped below USD 4.2k/oz.
• 3M LME Copper gapped lower and fell to a trough of USD 11.12k/t before rebounding to a session high of USD 11.27k/t as global risk tone slightly turns around following Monday's selloff.

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• EU HICP Flash YY (Nov) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 2.1%); Services 3.5% (prev. 3.4%); HICP Excluding Food & Energy Flash YY (Nov) 2.40% (Prev. 2.40%)
• EU Unemployment Rate (Oct) 6.4% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.3%, Rev. 6.4%)
• UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Nov) 0.6% (Prev. 1.0%)
• French Budget Balance (Oct) -136.17B (Prev. -155.4B)
• Hungarian GDP YY Final (Q3) 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)
• UK Nationwide house price mm (Nov) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%, Rev. 0.2%)
• UK Nationwide house price yy (Nov) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 2.4%)
• Germany's VDMA says that engineering orders have risen 4% in October Y/Y, and engineering orders have fallen 6% in Aug-Oct period.
• Italian Unemployment Rate (Oct) 6.0% vs. Exp. 6.1% (Prev. 6.1%, Rev. 6.2%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• Confederation of British Industry said Britain's private sector expects output to decline during the next three months in the gloomiest outlook since May as cautious consumer spending and cost pressures continue to weigh on businesses.
• BoE Financial Policy Committee Record: System-wide level of Tier 1 capital requirements is now around 13% of risk-weighted assets, 1ppt lower than its previous benchmark of around 14%. CCyB maintained at 2%. "The Committee has also identified areas for further work, including on buffer usability, the implementation of the leverage ratio in the UK, and initiatives by the Bank to respond to feedback on interactions, proportionality, and complexity. Committee supports the Bank’s plans for a private markets system-wide exploratory scenario (SWES)".
• OECD sees global growth of 3.2% in 2025 (maintained from prev. forecast), 2.9% in 2026 (maintained), 3.1% in 2027 (new forecast).
• UK OBR's Miles says it was not misleading for Chancellor Reeves to have said that the situation with public finances was very challenging.
• BoE Governor Bailey says he expects banks to support the economy through lending following recent capital changes.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• President Trump's schedule noted he will host a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday at 11:30EST/16:30GMT and will make an announcement at 14:00EST/19:00GMT.
• Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Bowman said it is important to finish Basel III, while she added they are working on a G-SIB surcharge.
• OpenAI's Altman has declared a "code red" effort to enhance the quality of ChatGPT, via WSJ, citing an internal memo. Co. is delaying other products to do this. Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google Gemini AI is of particular concern to Altman.
• Apple (AAPL) plans not to follow the order by the Indian government to preload phones with a state-run cyber safety app, according to Reuters, citing sources; Co. to voice its concerns around privacy and security following new app order

MIDDLE EAST

• Arab media reported new Israeli attacks in Khan Yunis and Rafah, according to Iran International.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• European Commission proposals for the Ukraine reparation loan should be distributed to member states tomorrow, and likely first discussion by EU ambassadors on Friday, according to Radio Liberty journalist
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday.
• Russia's Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov says US Special Envoy Witkoff and President Putin will discuss the understanding reached between the US and Ukraine, in a meeting at 14:00GMT/09:00EST, via TASS. S-400 and SU-57 fighter jets will be on the agenda.

OTHER

• Venezuelan President Maduro reportedly asked for sanction removal for more than 100 officials during a previous call with US President Trump. Furthermore, Trump gave Maduro a Friday deadline to leave Venezuela with his family, while the failure to meet the Friday deadline prompted Trump's comments on Saturday about the closure of airspace, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Treasury is investigating allegations that Minnesota tax dollars may have been diverted to Al-Shabaab.
• China's Coast Guard said it expelled a Japanese vessel in the waters of the Senkaku Islands on Tuesday.
• "Turkey says oil tanker attacked in Black Sea while sailing from Russia to Georgia", according to Sky News Arabia. However, Sky News Arabia later clarifies, "Turkey says cargo ship attacked in Black Sea while sailing from Russia to Georgia".
• Japan's Defence Minister Koizumi is considering a visit to the US as early as mid-January to hold talks with War Secretary Hegseth, via Kyodo.

• Bitcoin is essentially flat and trades just above USD 86k.

• APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region shrugged off the weak lead from Wall Street, but with the upside capped amid quiet macro catalysts and in the absence of any tier-1 data.
• ASX 200 eked mild gains with the help of outperformance in energy, resources and mining, but with gains limited by underperformance in tech and utilities, while data was uninspiring with a larger-than-expected contraction in building approvals.
• Nikkei 225 nursed some of the prior day's losses but with the rebound contained amid risks of a BoJ December hike.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp mostly traded mixed as participants reflected on a slew of monthly auto sales updates, while the mainland lagged after the PBoC's open market operations resulted in a net daily drain of CNY 146bln.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• RBNZ Governor Breman said she will discuss with the MPC the possibility of being more transparent with how members vote, while she added that the mandate is very clear that we should focus on keeping inflation low and stable. Breman said that they aim to support a healthy, strong and growing economy, but keep inflation low and stable. It was separately reported that the RBNZ is to begin weekly open-market operations from December 4th and will update changes to the format in Q1 2026.
• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has completed development of its 6th-gen HBM4 and is entering full-scale mass production, via AJUNews.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Current Account Balance (AUD)(Q3) -16.6B vs. Exp. -13.3B (Prev. -13.7B)
• Australian Net Exports Contribution (Q3) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
• Australian Building Approvals (Oct) -6.4% vs. Exp. -4.5% (Prev. 12.0%, Rev. 11.1%)

• APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region shrugged off the weak lead from Wall Street, but with the upside capped amid quiet macro catalysts and in the absence of any tier-1 data.
• White House said the administration is very optimistic about Ukraine and had very good talks with the Ukrainian delegation.
• White House confirmed a meeting on Monday between US President Trump and the national security team regarding Venezuela, while it stated that many options are on the table.
• UK PM spokesperson said PM Starmer has full confidence in Chancellor Reeves.
• European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market closed flat on Monday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Flash CPI (Nov), Unemployment Rate, US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, BoE FSR, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from Marvell & CrowdStrike.

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

• US stocks finished the first session of December in the red following a choppy session with equity futures initially sold alongside caution in APAC trade in response to soft China PMIs, while pressure then continued once Europe arrived, with the DAX lagging amid a downward revision to the German manufacturing PMI. However, around the opening bell, the risk tone in equities started to improve throughout the afternoon, before fading into the closing bell.
• SPX -0.53% at 6,813, NDX -0.36% at 25,343, DJI -0.89% at 47,289, RUT -1.25% at 2,469.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• Chinese rare-earth magnet companies are reportedly finding workarounds to their government’s export restrictions, as they seek to keep sales flowing to Western buyers, according to WSJ.
• EU dropped its complaint against Chinese trade curbs on Lithuania at the WTO.
• UK PM Starmer urged UK businesses to boost trade with China despite security threats, according to FT.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• White House said US President Trump will hold a cabinet meeting on Tuesday and will make an announcement on the Trump Accounts, while President Trump's schedule noted he will host a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday at 11:30EST/16:30GMT and will make an announcement at 14:00EST/19:00GMT.
• Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Bowman said it is important to finish Basel III, while she added they are working on a G-SIB surcharge.

• APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region shrugged off the weak lead from Wall Street, but with the upside capped amid quiet macro catalysts and in the absence of any tier-1 data.
• ASX 200 eked mild gains with the help of outperformance in energy, resources and mining, but with gains limited by underperformance in tech and utilities, while data was uninspiring with a larger-than-expected contraction in building approvals.
• Nikkei 225 nursed some of the prior day's losses but with the rebound contained amid risks of a BoJ December hike.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp mostly traded mixed as participants reflected on a slew of monthly auto sales updates, while the mainland lagged after the PBoC's open market operations resulted in a net daily drain of CNY 146bln.
• US equity futures lacked direction with price action contained following yesterday's choppy performance.
• European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market closed flat on Monday.

• DXY struggled for direction after the prior day's flat performance amid a lack of major pertinent catalysts and following the recent ISM Manufacturing PMI report, which showed a surprise decline in the headline, indicating a worsening outlook for the sector amid further contractions in New Orders and Employment, although Prices Paid was firmer than expected.
• EUR/USD traded sideways overnight after recent swings and as ECB rhetoric continued to underscore the unlikelihood of any near-term policy adjustments, while participants look ahead to flash CPI data from the bloc.
• GBP/USD lingered near Monday's trough after recent whipsawing and despite the UK and US agreeing to a zero-tariff pharma deal, although the deal called for the NHS to increase the net price it pays for new medicines by 25%.
• USD/JPY gradually clawed back most of yesterday's losses and regained a firm footing at the 155.00 handle.
• Antipodeans conformed to the uneventful picture across the FX space in the absence of tier-1 data, although AUD/USD gradually edged higher amid the mostly constructive mood.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0794 vs exp. 7.0746 (Prev. 7.0759)

• 10yr UST futures saw some slight reprieve from the prior day's selling after pressure was seen across the curve yesterday, with global fixed income weighed on by the recent comments from BoJ Governor Ueda, who hinted about a December rate hike, while Treasuries were also not helped by a slew of corporate issuances and as rising crude prices bolstered inflation expectations.
• Bund futures languished at yesterday's trough after suffering from the global bond selling.
• 10yr JGB futures nursed some on the recent losses with mild support seen in the aftermath of the latest 10yr JGB auction, which attracted higher demand but resulted in lower accepted prices.

• Crude futures took a breather after gaining yesterday, following the OPEC+ decision to maintain output throughout Q1 2026 and continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries. Also on the geopolitical front, President Trump was reported to hold a meeting with the national security team on Venezuela in which many options were said to be on the table.
• Spot gold mildly retreated and briefly tested the USD 4,200/oz level to the downside with headwinds seen as copper and silver prices pulled back from recent peaks.
• Copper futures trickled lower with LME prices on a comedown from record highs, despite the mostly positive risk tone.

• Bitcoin clawed back some of its recent losses, albeit in a choppy fashion and returned to above the USD 87,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• RBNZ Governor Breman said she will discuss with the MPC the possibility of being more transparent with how members vote, while she added that the mandate is very clear that we should focus on keeping inflation low and stable. Breman said that they aim to support a healthy, strong and growing economy, but keep inflation low and stable. It was separately reported that the RBNZ is to begin weekly open-market operations from December 4th and will update changes to the format in Q1 2026.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Current Account Balance (AUD)(Q3) -16.6B vs. Exp. -13.3B (Prev. -13.7B)
• Australian Net Exports Contribution (Q3) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
• Australian Building Approvals (Oct) -6.4% vs. Exp. -4.5% (Prev. 12.0%, Rev. 11.1%)

MIDDLE EAST

• US President Trump held a phone call with Israeli PM Netanyahu and invited him to the White House in the near future.
• Arab media reported new Israeli attacks in Khan Yunis and Rafah, according to Iran International.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• White House said the administration is very optimistic about Ukraine and had very good talks with the Ukrainian delegation.
• French President Macron discussed the situation in Ukraine with US President Trump and emphasised the central importance of the security guarantees needed for Ukraine.
• European Commission President von der Leyen said the situation at the border with Belarus is worsening, and the EU is preparing further measures under its sanctions regime.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday.

OTHER

• White House confirmed a meeting on Monday between US President Trump and the national security team regarding Venezuela, while it stated that many options are on the table and that War Secretary Hegseth spoke with members of Congress over the weekend regarding Venezuelan strikes.
• Venezuelan President Maduro reportedly asked for sanction removal for more than 100 officials during a previous call with US President Trump. Furthermore, Trump gave Maduro a Friday deadline to leave Venezuela with his family, while the failure to meet the Friday deadline prompted Trump's comments on Saturday about the closure of airspace, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Treasury is investigating allegations that Minnesota tax dollars may have been diverted to Al-Shabaab.
• China's Coast Guard said it expelled a Japanese vessel in the waters of the Senkaku Islands on Tuesday.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK PM spokesperson said PM Starmer has full confidence in Chancellor Reeves.
• UK OBR Chair Hughes has written to submit resignation following the Budget day publishing error.
• Confederation of British Industry said Britain's private sector expects output to decline during the next three months in the gloomiest outlook since May as cautious consumer spending and cost pressures continue to weigh on businesses.
• ECB's Kocher said slight deviations above or below the 2% target should not trigger any need for action on rates now, while Kocher added that they should keep enough powder dry to be able to react quickly if necessary, according to the Kurier newspaper.

DATA RECAP

• UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Nov) 0.6% (Prev. 1.0%)

• US and Ukraine negotiations on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, while the five-hour meeting was said to be difficult and intense, but productive, according to two Ukrainian officials cited by Axios.
• European and US equity futures are broadly on the backfoot, following on from a cautious mood in APAC trade.
• DXY is pressured by the stronger JPY following jawboning from Japanese officials and after BoJ Governor Ueda hinted at a December rate hike.
• Bonds were initially pressured following on from JGB downside, and then took a leg lower alongside Gilt underperformance soon after the European cash open.
• Crude futures benefit after OPEC+ holds output steady through Q1’26 and in reaction to further Ukrainian strikes in Russian oil refineries; 3M LME Copper surges to fresh ATHs above USD 11.2k/t, but has since scaled back given the risk tone and downbeat Chinese PMI figures.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Manufacturing PMI Final (Nov), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov), Saudi-Russia Business Forum, EU Supply. Speak from Fed Chair Powell (Fed Blackout) and BoE's Dhingra.

• European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) are on the backfoot, following a cautious mood seen in APAC trade. The AEX (U/C) bucks the trend, with ASML (+1%) keeping the index afloat after positive analyst commentary.
• European sectors are mixed. Basic Resources leads, given the strength in underlying metals prices whilst Industrials sits at the foot of the pile, with Airbus (-3.5%) pressured after rolling out urgent fixes across its A320 fleet over the weekend.
• US equity futures are softer across the board (ES -0.5% NQ -0.7% RTY -0.8%), following the pressure seen in Europe. Focus later will be on US ISM Manufacturing figures, which will give further insight into the health of the US economy ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.
• Softbank (9984 JT) CEO said he did not want to sell a single NVIDIA (NVDA) share, but needed funds to invest in OpenAI and other opportunities.
• Swiss Government has filed charges against UBS' (UBSG SW) Credit Suisse for money laundering and organisational deficiencies, relating to Mozambican state-owned enterprise
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

• DXY is subdued in the presence of JPY strength and in the absence of any pertinent catalysts and with the Fed in a blackout period, while US President Trump said he knows who he will pick for the Fed chair role, but didn't give any further details. DXY resides towards the bottom of a 99.26-99.51 range (vs Friday's 99.38-99.82 parameter), with the next downside level the 17th November low at 99.25.
• JPY is the marked outperformer this morning, given the risk tone and commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda, who ultimately hinted at a possible December rate rise, although market pricing has been little changed since last week, with a 67% chance of a hold at the 19th December announcement. USD/JPY currently resides towards the bottom of a 155.24-156.15 parameter, the next support level is seen at 155.21 (19th November low).
• EUR and GBP diverge, the former underpinned by the USD, whilst the latter is subdued ahead of UK PM Starmer's speech at 10:30GMT, where he will reportedly outline the growth mission and will defend the Budget after Chancellor Reeves was forced to deny lying to the public about UK finances pre-Budget. No moves were seen in EUR or GBP on the Final Manufacturing PMI data. EUR/GBP reached a 0.8794 peak vs a 0.8754 intraday trough.
• Non-US dollars, CAD, AUD, NZD, are relatively flat with the broader market tone tentative and macro updates light. Upside capped in the antipodeans following overall disappointing Chinese PMIs, where the headline official Manufacturing PMI continued to show a decline in factory activity at 49.2 (exp. 49.2) and Non-Manufacturing disappointed with a surprise contraction at 49.5 (exp. 50.0), while RatingDog Manufacturing PMI missed estimates at 49.9 (Exp. 50.5).
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0759 vs exp. 7.0709 (Prev. 7.0789).
• Click for NY OpEx Details

• USTs Mar'26 down to 113-06, lower by five ticks at worst. Downside echoes peers, but offset by dovish Fed expectations as markets near-enough price a December cut, and we look to updates on the next Fed Chair after President Trump said he knows who he will pick. Polymarket ascribes a 58% chance that Hassett will be appointed. Treasury Secretary Bessent recently said Trump could make an announcement pre-Christmas.
• Bund Dec'25 at a 128.50 low, posting downside of 37 ticks. Support comes into play at 128.37 from the 20th of November. Thereafter, the figure before 127.88 from the last week of September. JGBs and Gilts (see below) driving much of the bearishness, alongside upside in numerous Commodity prices, and particularly crude post-OPEC.
• Gilts Mar'26 opened lower by 12 ticks before falling further to a 91.16 low with downside of 42 ticks at most. Underperformance driven by the Budget and Chancellor Reeves coming under scrutiny over the weekend, with particular reference to the timing of OBR briefings and her pitch-rolling on Income Tax. PM Starmer to speak at 10:30GMT on growth.
• JGBs Dec'25 hit overnight and were lower by c. 50 ticks at worst. Pressure on the back of hawkish BoJ commentary, where Ueda, among other points, said that delaying a rate hike too long could cause sharp inflation and force a rapid policy adjustment. Remarks that lifted BoJ pricing to over a 70% chance of a hike in December vs sub-60% on Friday.

• WTI and Brent are currently trading higher by c. 2%, as markets digest the OPEC+ and supply-related concerns following Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries. WTI and Brent currently reside at the upper end of a USD 58.83/bbl to USD 59.97/bbl and USD 62.29/bbl to 63.35/bbl range respectively. Price action since the European cash open has been exceptionally lacklustre, and generally sideways around highs; some modest downticks have been seen in recent trade.
• Spot gold is firmer today and trades towards the upper end of a USD 4,205.63/oz to USD 4,262/oz range. XAU now at levels not seen since late October 2025; there is now a bit of clear air to the high of 21st October at USD 4,375.62/oz. Perhaps some focus on continued Ukrainian attacks on Russia, as traders now focus on the coming meeting between US Special Envoy Witkoff and Russian President Putin on Tuesday. Elsewhere, marked pressure in the crypto space perhaps sent flows to the more-traditional haven in APAC trade.
• Base metals held a strong positive bias throughout overnight trade, but then gave up some of the upside as the risk tone dipped a touch, with traders focusing on the disappointing Chinese PMI metrics. Focus has also been on the surge in 3M LME Copper, which saw the red-metal surge above USD 11.2k/t to print a fresh ATH at USD 11,297/t, before scaling back down to a current USD 11,189/t. ING opines that the latest bout of demand for the metal is thanks to “an upbeat CESCO Week event in Shanghai” – suggesting that it echoed the markets’ view of tight supply.
• OPEC+ agreed to keep group-wide oil output unchanged for Q1 2026, while it stated that participating countries approved the mechanism developed by the secretariat to assess participating countries’ maximum sustainable production capacity. Furthermore, it announced that the 41st OPEC and Non-OPEC ministerial meeting will be held on 7th June 2026.
• OPEC Secretariat receives update compensation plans from Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman, according to a statement.
• Saudi Energy Minister said OPEC+ latest decision is the most important and transparent in deciding production level via State TV.
• Gas exports from Iraq's Khor Mor gas field resumed just days after a drone attack.

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• EU HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI (Nov) 49.6 vs. Exp. 49.7 (Prev. 49.7)
• Spanish HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 51.5 vs. Exp. 52.4 (Prev. 52.1)
• German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 48.2 vs. Exp. 48.4 (Prev. 48.4)
• French HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 47.8 vs. Exp. 47.8 (Prev. 47.8)
• Italian HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.6 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 49.9)
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.2)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• Swiss voters overwhelmingly rejected the proposal for a 50% inheritance tax for the super-rich, according to FT.
• UK PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves have been accused of misleading the Cabinet by using claims that there was a black hole in the public finances to justify tax rises during the run-up to the Budget, according to The Times’s Swinford, while it was separately reported by Bloomberg that Reeves denied lying about UK finances pre-Budget.
• UK PM Starmer is to defend the Budget after Reeves was accused of misleading the public, and will outline the growth mission after the Budget tax rises during a speech on Monday.
• S&P affirmed Latvia at A; Outlook Stable and affirmed Lithuania at A; Outlook Stable.
• ECB's de Guindos said the current level of interest rates is appropriate and, in terms of future moves, this is data dependent.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump said on Friday he is cancelling all executive orders signed by former President Biden using autopen and stated that any document signed by Biden with autopen, which was approximately 92% of them, is hereby terminated and of no further force or effect. Furthermore, Trump stated that Biden was not involved in the autopen process and that if he said he was, he will be brought up on charges of perjury.
• US President Trump said he knows who he will pick as the next Fed chair.
• White House Economic Adviser Hassett said he will be happy to serve if US President Trump picks him as Fed chair.
• US State Department announced a pause on visa issuances for Afghan passport holders, and the US immigration service said it will halt all asylum decisions, while the US Citizenship and Immigration Services Director said USCIS halted all asylum decisions until they can ensure that every migrant is vetted and screened to the maximum degree.
• US Transportation Secretary Duffy said they have been in close contact with Airbus (AIR FP) about the software update recall for the A320 and the airlines that use them, as well as noted that travellers should not expect any major disruptions. It was also reported that Airbus was revising down the number of jets affected by the most time-consuming A320 repairs, while American Airlines said planes impacted by the Airbus glitch have been fixed.
• Mastercard SpendingPulse noted that US retail spending on Black Friday rose 4.1% Y/Y and ecommerce spending rose 10.4% Y/Y, while Adobe Analytics noted that consumer spending rose 9.1% Y/Y to a record USD 11.7bln on Black Friday.
• CyrusOne said it restored stable and secure operations at its Chicago 1 data centre in Aurora, Illinois.
• South African President Ramaphosa dismissed US President Trump's threat to exclude the country from next year's G20 summit and reaffirmed South Africa's status as a founding member of the group, according to Reuters.
• "It is exceedingly unlikely that the White House will embrace an ACA subsidies extension or offer its own plan", according to Punchbowl citing Trump admin sources.

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli PM Netanyahu submitted a letter to President Herzog, while Netanyahu said in a video statement addressing the pardon request that his personal interest was to complete the legal process until the end, while he added that the military and national reality, and national interest, demand otherwise, and that ending the trial immediately would advance much-needed national reconciliation.
• Israeli helicopters fired in the eastern areas of Khan Yunis inside the Yellow Line, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israeli security estimates that Iran may take the initiative and carry out retaliatory operations instead of Hezbollah and estimates preparations for a Houthi response in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah Top Commander Al-Tabatabai, according to Al Arabiya.
• Hezbollah’s leader said on Friday in response to Israel's killing of its military chief that the group has a right to respond and will set a time for it, while he added that Lebanon's government should prepare a plan to confront Israel.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi held talks with Turkey regarding the nuclear issue and Israel, while he also held a meeting with the Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs in Tehran.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Russia's Kremlin said that Russian President Putin is due to meet US envoy Witkoff on Tuesday. On the Russia-Ukraine peace development, the Kremlin adds that they are not going to engage in megaphone diplomacy.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said a delegation headed by the security council chief travelled to the US for talks, while it was also reported that Zelensky is to visit French President Macron in Paris on Monday.
• US and Ukraine negotiations on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, while the five-hour meeting was said to be difficult and intense, but productive, according to two Ukrainian officials cited by Axios.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said the meeting with Ukrainians was very productive but noted there is more work to be done, while he added that they have been in touch to varying degrees with the Russian side.
• Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister said there was a good start to US peace talks with a warm atmosphere conducive to a potential progressive outcome.
• Ukraine’s military hit Russia’s Afipsky oil refinery, while it was also reported that Ukrainian sea drones struck two Gambia-flagged tankers off the Turkish coast on Friday, which were said to be part of a Russian shadow fleet used to bypass Western sanctions.
• Russian forces carried out a massive strike on Ukrainian military-industrial and energy facilities.
• Russia’s Foreign Minister said following a Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC Black Sea terminal, that the civilian energy infrastructure that was attacked plays an important role in ensuring global energy security and has never been subject to any restrictions or limitations, while they strongly condemned the ‘terrorist attacks’ on CPC and oil tankers.
• NATO is considering being “more aggressive” in responding to Russia’s cyber-attacks, sabotage and airspace violations, according to its most senior military officer, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, cited by FT.
• NATO is reportedly preparing for the scenario of confronting Russia with limited US support, according to a report by Bloomberg citing a wargame in Transylvania that showed European soldiers defending the continent largely without US support as President Trump reduces US deployments in Europe.

OTHER

• US President Trump declared on Truth Social that the airspace above Venezuela is closed. It was separately reported that President Trump held a call with Venezuelan President Maduro, while Trump also commented that Defence Secretary Hegseth told him that he did not order a second boat strike.
• US bipartisan lawmakers raised alarms on Sunday that Defence Secretary Hegseth may have committed a war crime following a report that he ordered a follow-on attack to kill survivors of a boat strike in September, according to POLITICO.
• Venezuela said it rejects US President Trump’s “hostile, unilateral and arbitrary” post about Venezuela’s airspace and noted that the statement shows “colonial pretentions” towards Latin America, while it added that Venezuela demands respect for airspace and will not accept foreign orders or threats.
• China’s Coast Guard carried out law enforcement inspections around the Scarborough Shoal, while the report noted that the Chinese military’s Southern Theatre Command organised combat readiness patrols in the ‘territorial’ waters and airspace of the Scarborough Shoal and surrounding areas on November 29th, according to Xinhua.

• Bitcoin sank overnight and continues to remain on the backfoot, below USD 86.6k whilst Ethereum slips below USD 2.9k.

• APAC stocks began the new month mixed, with participants cautious as they digested the weak Chinese PMI data.
• ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in healthcare, telecoms, financials and tech, while sentiment was also not helped by disappointing Chinese PMI data and weaker-than-expected Australian Gross Company Profits and Business Inventories.
• Nikkei 225 slipped beneath the 50k level amid a firmer currency and risks of a BoJ rate hike in December, while there were hawkish-leaning comments from BoJ Governor Ueda, who said that they will consider the pros and cons of raising rates at the December meeting.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat despite the discouraging Chinese PMI data, in which the headline official Manufacturing PMI continued to show a decline in factory activity at 49.2 (exp. 49.2) and Non-Manufacturing disappointed with a surprise contraction at 49.5 (exp. 50.0), while RatingDog Manufacturing PMI missed estimates at 49.9 (Exp. 50.5).

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoJ Governor Ueda is to deliver a speech at the Japan Business Federation on December 25th, according to the central bank.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said if their projection of economic activity and prices materialise, the BoJ will continue to raise the policy interest rate in accordance with improvements in economy and prices, while he added that even if the policy interest rate is raised, accommodative financial conditions will be maintained and the likelihood of their baseline scenario for economic activity and prices being realised is gradually increasing. Ueda also commented that at the December meeting, the BoJ will examine and discuss economic activity and prices at home and abroad, as well as market developments, based on various data, and consider the pros and cons of raising rates. Furthermore, he said it is important for FX to move stably reflecting fundamentals and that a weak yen works to push up consumer inflation, while they must be mindful that FX moves affect inflation expectations and underlying inflation in guiding policy.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said it is “clear” that volatile swings in the FX market and the rapid weakening of the yen aren’t based on fundamentals.
• China’s financial regulator guides banks and insurers to fully provide financial support services related to the Hong Kong fire and said insurance institutions should promptly handle claims and other procedures for disaster-affected customers, while it added that banks should strengthen financial credit support and actively assist in disaster reconstruction.
• Indonesia said at least 303 people died in three provinces after severe rains caused floods and landslides.
• Vanke has reportedly requested 12-months to pay its bonds under the extension plan, Bloomberg reports.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.2 vs. Exp. 49.2 (Prev. 49.0)
• Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.5 vs Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.1)
• Chinese NBS Composite PMI 49.7 (Prev. 50.0)
• Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI Final (Nov) 49.9 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.6)

• APAC stocks began the new month mixed, with participants cautious as they digested the weak Chinese PMI data.
• GBP/USD remained choppy ahead of UK PM Starmer's speech on Monday, where he will reportedly outline the growth mission and will defend the Budget after Chancellor Reeves was forced to deny lying to the public about UK finances.
• Crude futures were underpinned from the open following the OPEC+ decision to maintain output plans throughout Q1 2026.
• US and Ukraine negotiations on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, while the five-hour meeting was said to be difficult and intense, but productive, according to two Ukrainian officials cited by Axios.
• European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Friday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include EZ/UK/US Manufacturing PMI Final (Nov), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov), Saudi-Russia Business Forum, EU Supply.

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

• US stocks were bid on Friday during the shortened day of trade, with equity futures modestly higher from levels seen before the CME outage in the morning, while gains were broad-based, with the vast majority of sectors closing green, although healthcare bucked the trend and was pressured by Eli Lilly's (LLY) weakness following the November rally.
• Furthermore, T-notes were lower across the curve as stocks moved higher, with little macro information to digest on account of Thanksgiving on Thursday.
• SPX +0.54% at 6,849, NDX +0.78% at 25,435, DJI +0.61% at 47,716, RUT +0.58% at 2,500.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• China was reported on Friday to have banned imports of pigs, wild boars and related products from Spain's Barcelona province, according to a China Customs document. In relevant news, Mexico’s Agriculture Ministry also suspended pork product imports from Spain due to a swine fever outbreak.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump said on Friday he is cancelling all executive orders signed by former President Biden using autopen and stated that any document signed by Biden with autopen, which was approximately 92% of them, is hereby terminated and of no further force or effect. Furthermore, Trump stated that Biden was not involved in the autopen process and that if he says he was, he will be brought up on charges of perjury.
• US President Trump said he knows who he will pick as the next Fed chair.
• White House Economic Adviser Hassett said he will be happy to serve if US President Trump picks him as Fed chair.
• US State Department announced a pause on visa issuances for Afghan passport holders, and the US immigration service said it will halt all asylum decisions, while the US Citizenship and Immigration Services Director said USCIS halted all asylum decisions until they can ensure that every migrant is vetted and screened to the maximum degree.
• US Transportation Secretary Duffy said they have been in close contact with Airbus (AIR FP) about the software update recall for the A320 and the airlines that use them, as well as noted that travellers should not expect any major disruptions. It was also reported that Airbus was revising down the number of jets affected by the most time-consuming A320 repairs, while American Airlines said planes impacted by the Airbus glitch have been fixed.
• Mastercard SpendingPulse noted that US retail spending on Black Friday rose 4.1% Y/Y and ecommerce spending rose 10.4% Y/Y, while Adobe Analytics noted that consumer spending rose 9.1% Y/Y to a record USD 11.7bln on Black Friday.
• CyrusOne said it restored stable and secure operations at its Chicago 1 data centre in Aurora, Illinois.

• APAC stocks began the new month mixed, with participants cautious as they digested the weak Chinese PMI data.
• ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in healthcare, telecoms, financials and tech, while sentiment was also not helped by disappointing Chinese PMI data and weaker-than-expected Australian Gross Company Profits and Business Inventories.
• Nikkei 225 slipped beneath the 50k level amid a firmer currency and risks of a BoJ rate hike in December, while there were hawkish-leaning comments from BoJ Governor Ueda, who said that they will consider the pros and cons of raising rates at the December meeting.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat despite the discouraging Chinese PMI data, in which the headline official Manufacturing PMI continued to show a decline in factory activity at 49.2 (exp. 49.2) and Non-Manufacturing disappointed with a surprise contraction at 49.5 (exp. 50.0), while RatingDog Manufacturing PMI missed estimates at 49.9 (Exp. 50.5).
• US equity futures retreated alongside the selling pressure in Asia-Pac bourses and gave back the Black Friday spoils.
• European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Friday.

• DXY traded little changed in the absence of any pertinent catalysts and with the Fed in a blackout period, while US President Trump said he knows who he will pick for the Fed chair role, but didn't give any further details.
• EUR/USD was indecisive with the single currency returning to flat territory after failing to sustain an early foray above the 1.1600 level, and with comments last Friday from ECB President Lagarde, who reiterated that interest rates are at the right level and the situation is good.
• GBP/USD remained choppy ahead of UK PM Starmer's speech on Monday, where he will reportedly outline the growth mission and will defend the Budget after Chancellor Reeves was forced to deny lying to the public about UK finances.
• USD/JPY retreated as risk sentiment in Japan deteriorated and with downside also facilitated by recent comments from officials including Japanese Finance Minister Katayama who said it is “clear” that volatile swings in the FX market and the rapid weakening of the yen aren’t based on fundamentals, while BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated the BoJ will continue to raise the policy interest rate in accordance with improvements in economy and prices if their projections of economic activity and prices materialise. Furthermore, Ueda stated that the likelihood of their baseline scenario for economic activity and prices being realised is gradually increasing, as well as noted that the BoJ will examine and discuss economic activity and prices at home and abroad, as well as market developments, based on various data, and consider the pros and cons of raising rates at the December meeting.
• Antipodeans lacked conviction alongside the mixed risk appetite and disappointing Chinese PMI data.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0759 vs exp. 7.0709 (Prev. 7.0789).

• 10yr UST futures remained subdued following last week's holiday-thinned conditions and with little fresh pertinent catalysts.
• Bund futures lacked demand following light weekend newsflow, while participants await EU supply and November final PMIs.
• 10yr JGB futures retreated from the open with further downside exacerbated amid several hawkish-leaning comments from BoJ Governor Ueda.

• Crude futures were underpinned from the open following the OPEC+ decision to maintain output plans throughout Q1 2026.
• OPEC+ agreed to keep group-wide oil output unchanged for Q1 2026, while it stated that participating countries approved the mechanism developed by the secretariat to assess participating countries’ maximum sustainable production capacity. Furthermore, it announced that the 41st OPEC and Non-OPEC ministerial meeting will be held on 7th June 2026.
• Gas exports from Iraq's Khor Mor gas field resumed just days after a drone attack.
• Spot gold initially climbed in tandem with the upside seen in other precious metals, including silver which rallied to a record high, before fading most of their earlier gains.
• Copper futures extended on gains which saw LME prices hit fresh all-time-highs above the USD 11,200/ton level, but then pulled back from their best levels amid the mixed risk appetite and disappointing Chinese PMI data.

• Bitcoin slumped overnight from north of the USD 90,000 level to beneath the USD 86,000.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoJ Governor Ueda said if their projection of economic activity and prices materialise, the BoJ will continue to raise the policy interest rate in accordance with improvements in economy and prices, while he added that even if the policy interest rate is raised, accommodative financial conditions will be maintained and the likelihood of their baseline scenario for economic activity and prices being realised is gradually increasing. Ueda also commented that at the December meeting, the BoJ will examine and discuss economic activity and prices at home and abroad, as well as market developments, based on various data, and consider the pros and cons of raising rates. Furthermore, he said it is important for FX to move stably reflecting fundamentals and that a weak yen works to push up consumer inflation, while they must be mindful that FX moves affect inflation expectations and underlying inflation in guiding policy.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said it is “clear” that volatile swings in the FX market and the rapid weakening of the yen aren’t based on fundamentals.
• China’s financial regulator guides banks and insurers to fully provide financial support services related to the Hong Kong fire and said insurance institutions should promptly handle claims and other procedures for disaster-affected customers, while it added that banks should strengthen financial credit support and actively assist in disaster reconstruction.
• Indonesia said at least 303 people died in three provinces after severe rains caused floods and landslides.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.2 vs. Exp. 49.2 (Prev. 49.0)
• Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.5 vs Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.1)
• Chinese NBS Composite PMI 49.7 (Prev. 50.0)
• Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI Final (Nov) 49.9 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.6)

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli PM Netanyahu submitted a letter to President Herzog, while Netanyahu said in a video statement addressing the pardon request that his personal interest was to complete the legal process until the end, while he added that the military and national reality, and national interest, demand otherwise, and that ending the trial immediately would advance much-needed national reconciliation.
• Israeli helicopters fired in the eastern areas of Khan Yunis inside the Yellow Line, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israeli security estimates that Iran may take the initiative and carry out retaliatory operations instead of Hezbollah and estimates preparations for a Houthi response in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah Top Commander Al-Tabatabai, according to Al Arabiya.
• Hezbollah’s leader said on Friday in response to Israel's killing of its military chief that the group has a right to respond and will set a time for it, while he added that Lebanon's government should prepare a plan to confront Israel.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi held talks with Turkey regarding the nuclear issue and Israel, while he also held a meeting with the Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs in Tehran.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said a delegation headed by the security council chief travelled to the US for talks, while it was also reported that Zelensky is to visit French President Macron in Paris on Monday.
• US and Ukraine negotiations on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, while the five-hour meeting was said to be difficult and intense, but productive, according to two Ukrainian officials cited by Axios.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said the meeting with Ukrainians was very productive but noted there is more work to be done, while he added that they have been in touch to varying degrees with the Russian side.
• Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister said there was a good start to US peace talks with a warm atmosphere conducive to a potential progressive outcome.
• Ukraine’s military hit Russia’s Afipsky oil refinery, while it was also reported that Ukrainian sea drones struck two Gambia-flagged tankers off the Turkish coast on Friday, which were said to be part of a Russian shadow fleet used to bypass Western sanctions.
• Russian forces carried out a massive strike on Ukrainian military-industrial and energy facilities.
• Russia’s Foreign Minister said following a Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC Black Sea terminal, that the civilian energy infrastructure that was attacked plays an important role in ensuring global energy security and has never been subject to any restrictions or limitations, while they strongly condemned the ‘terrorist attacks’ on CPC and oil tankers.
• NATO is considering being “more aggressive” in responding to Russia’s cyber attacks, sabotage and airspace violations, according to its most senior military officer, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, cited by FT.
• NATO is reportedly preparing for the scenario of confronting Russia with limited US support, according to a report by Bloomberg citing a wargame in Transylvania that showed European soldiers defending the continent largely without US support as President Trump reduces US deployments in Europe.

OTHER

• US President Trump declared on Truth Social that the airspace above Venezuela is closed. It was separately reported that President Trump held a call with Venezuelan President Maduro, while Trump also commented that Defence Secretary Hegseth told him that he did not order a second boat strike.
• US bipartisan lawmakers raised alarms on Sunday that Defence Secretary Hegseth may have committed a war crime following a report that he ordered a follow-on attack to kill survivors of a boat strike in September, according to POLITICO.
• Venezuela said it rejects US President Trump’s “hostile, unilateral and arbitrary” post about Venezuela’s airspace and noted that the statement shows “colonial pretentions” towards Latin America, while it added that Venezuela demands respect for airspace and will not accept foreign orders or threats.
• China’s Coast Guard carried out law enforcement inspections around the Scarborough Shoal, while the report noted that the Chinese military’s Southern Theatre Command organised combat readiness patrols in the ‘territorial’ waters and airspace of the Scarborough Shoal and surrounding areas on November 29th, according to Xinhua.

• Swiss voters overwhelmingly rejected the proposal for a 50% inheritance tax for the super-rich, according to FT.
• South African President Ramaphosa dismissed US President Trump's threat to exclude the country from next year's G20 summit and reaffirmed South Africa's status as a founding member of the group, according to Reuters.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves have been accused of misleading the Cabinet by using claims that there was a black hole in the public finances to justify tax rises during the run-up to the Budget, according to The Times’s Swinford, while it was separately reported by Bloomberg that Reeves denied lying about UK finances pre-Budget.
• UK PM Starmer is to defend the Budget after Reeves was accused of misleading the public, and will outline the growth mission after the Budget tax rises during a speech on Monday.
• ECB President Lagarde said on Friday that interest rates are at the right level and the situation is good, while she is optimistic about the situation in France.
• S&P affirmed Latvia at A; Outlook Stable and affirmed Lithuania at A; Outlook Stable.

• European bourses are mostly flat, with the FTSE 100 (+0.1%) the only major index posting gains. Overall market action is muted amid light news flow, reflecting both Thanksgiving and the CME issues.
• An outage at CME Group has halted trade in FX, commodities, Treasuries and equities futures; "Due to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers, our markets are currently halted," CME said.
• DXY is firmer within a 99.50–99.75 range, having found support at the half-round figure and pushed above Thursday’s 99.71 peak.
• EGBs are ultimately a little softer post-data; the EUR dipped during the releases but has since bounced off lows.
• WTI and Brent traded with a positive bias overnight, extending the prior session’s gains. WTI trading was later halted due to the CME outage.
• Looking ahead, highlights Canadian GDP (Q3), German Nationwide HICP, Credit Review for France.
• Desk Schedule: There is normal service on Friday, 28th November until 18:15GMT/13:15EST at which point the desk will close.

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• CME Group (CME) says BrokerTec EU markets are open and trading, all other CME group markets remain halted amid the data center cooling issue at CyrusOne.
• CME announced that CME Globex futures and options markets were halted due to technical issues, and Cboe halted trading on C1 due to ongoing issues at CME. CME later announced that markets were halted due to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centres, while it is working to resolve the outage issue and will advise clients of pre-open details as soon as available.
• US President Trump said that they may be cutting income tax almost completely because of tariff proceeds.
• US President Trump posted that he will permanently pause migration from all third-world countries to allow the US system to fully recover and will terminate all of the millions of Biden's illegal admissions, while he will end all federal benefits and subsidies to non-citizens.
• US President Trump ordered a review of all green card holders from countries "of concern" after the attack on National Guards in Washington DC, according to Axios.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• Nexperia issued an open letter to the leadership of Nexperia’s entities in China and noted that it continues to seek constructive collaboration with its entities in China, and has been requesting an open dialogue to find a path forward. Furthermore, it urged the leadership of Co.’s entities in China to take immediate steps towards structured negotiations to address the restoration of the supply chain, but added that it did not receive any meaningful response.
• Indonesia is reportedly resisting attempts by US President Trump to force it to accept a so-called “poison pill” and other coercive clauses in its “reciprocal tariff” trade deal with the US, according to FT.
• India expects to have a deal with the US before year-end as most issues are resolved, according to the Indian Trade Secretary
• EU Commission receives notifications from Apple (AAPL) under the Digital Market Act: Notifications from Apple (AAPL) indicated that its core platform services like Apple ads and maps meets the digital market thresholds.

• European bourses are mostly flat, with the FTSE 100 (+0.1%) marginally higher this morning. Overall market action is muted amid light news flow, reflecting both Thanksgiving and the CME issues.
• European sectors are largely in the red. Basic Resources (+0.2%) and Energy (+0.3%) are marginal outperformers, supported by underlying moves in metals and energy. Laggards include Travel & Leisure (-0.7%), Autos (-0.4%) and Insurance (-0.4%). Ongoing Nexperia concerns continue to pressure Autos, as the company warns of imminent production halts.
• A CME Group outage has halted trading in US equity futures, with no guidance yet on reopening. Prior to the halt, futures were modestly firmer, with ES +0.1% and NQ +0.2%.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

• DXY is firmer within a 99.50–99.76 range, having found support at the half-round figure and pushed above Thursday’s 99.71 peak. Fresh catalysts have been limited overnight and through the European morning, with FX futures on CME halted due to an exchange issue. Comments from US President Trump noted they may be cutting income tax almost completely using tariff proceeds.
• EUR and GBP are subdued against the USD but flat versus each other, leaving downside in the USD pairs driven by the Dollar rather than EZ- or UK-specific developments.
• JPY is flat and uneventful amid thin conditions and few catalysts, with USD/JPY holding a 155.65–157.18 range, comfortably inside Thursday’s 154.37–157.89 span.
• NZD is pulling back after recent post-RBNZ outperformance, while AUD/NZ D remains near weekly lows (1.1400) after sliding from a 1.1536 pre-RBNZ high.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0789 vs exp. 7.0769 (Prev. 7.0779)

• EGBs are ultimately a little softer post-data; the EUR dipped during the releases but has since bounced off lows.
• Bunds briefly pushed above 129.00 on cooler French HICP before fading, slipping back below 129.00 and extending losses to ~128.84 despite broadly softer German state CPI prints.
• Gilts contained overall, but have traversed a relatively wide range of just under 40 ticks as traders digest what appears to be another manifesto U-turn, by PM Starmer; markets now await the verdict from Chancellor Reeves on the matter.
• UK DMO to sell GBP 1bln 4.25% 2039 Gilt via tender on Dec 4th.

• WTI and Brent traded with a positive bias overnight, extending the prior session’s gains. WTI trading was later halted due to the CME outage. Since then, Brent Feb ’26 has slipped from its overnight highs and is now moving within a USD 62.72–63.26/bbl range.
• Precious metals are firmer, though with limited catalysts this morning. Spot gold is confined to a narrow USD 4,147.92/oz–4,193.20/oz range, with geopolitics remaining the main focus.
• Base metals retain a strong positive tone, with 3M LME Copper trading near the top of its USD 10,940.56–11,008.40/t range. The current upside looks mainly like a modest rebound from recent pressure.
• Ukraine's military says it hit Russia's Saratov oil refinery.

• Bitcoin is rangebound, trading on both sides of the USD 91,000 level and within yesterday's range.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• S&P said UK public finances remain constrained and it expects fiscal pressures in the UK to persist over the medium term despite revenue-raising measures announced in the Autumn Budget, while it added that general government deficits are forecast to moderate through to 2028 and there are risks to the UK’s fiscal consolidation plan, especially toward the end of the forecast horizon.
• Moody's says UK budget affirms commitment to fiscal consolidation however, they highlight execution risk.
• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results (October 2025); 12-month inflation expectations raised, 3- and 5-year expectations unchanged.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

Germany

• German State CPIs chimed with mainland consensus for the M/M, but the Y/Y figures defied the bias for a modest uptick.
• German Retail Sales MM Real (Oct) -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
• German Import Prices MM (Oct) 0.2% (Exp. 0.0%, Prev. 0.2%)
• German Retail Sales YY Real (Oct) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%)
• German Import Prices YY (Oct) -1.4% vs. Exp. -1.6% (Prev. -1.0%)
• German Unemployment Rate SA (Nov) 6.3% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.3%)
• German Unemployment Change SA (Nov) 1.0k vs. Exp. 5.0k (Prev. -1.0k)

France

• French GDP QQ Final (Q3) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%)
• French CPI Prelim MM NSA (Nov) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
• French CPI Prelim YY NSA (Nov) 0.9% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 0.9%)
• French Producer Prices YY (Oct) -1.2% (Prev. 0.1%)
• French CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM (Nov) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.1%)
• French CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY (Nov) 0.8% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 0.8%)
• French Consumer Spending MM (Oct) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%

Spain

• Spanish HICP Flash YY (Nov) 3.1% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.2%)
• Spanish CPI YY Flash NSA (Nov) 3.0% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.1%); Core 2.6% (prev. 2.5%)
• Spanish CPI MM Flash NSA (Nov) 0.2% (Prev. 0.70%)
• Spanish HICP Flash MM (Nov) 0.0% (Prev. 0.5%)
• Spanish Retail Sales YY (Oct) 3.8% (Prev. 4.2%, Rev. 4.1%)

Italy

• Italian CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY (Nov) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.3%)
• Italian CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM (Nov) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.2%)
• Italian Consumer Price Prelim YY (Nov) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.2%)
• Italian Consumer Price Prelim MM (Nov) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.3%)
• Italian GDP Final YY (Q3) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%)
• Italian GDP Final QQ (Q3) 0.1%

Others

• Swiss GDP YY (Q3) 0.5% (Prev. 1.2%, Rev. 1.3%)
• Swiss GDP QQ (Q3) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.1%, Rev.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian and US delegations will meet this week to work out a formula for peace and security discussed in the Geneva talks.
• Russia's Kremlin says Russia wants to try move towards peace in Ukraine despite its belief that Ukrainian President Zelensky is not legitimate.
• Ukrainian Presidential top aide said should not count on them giving up territory as long as Zelensky is President.
• Belgium warned that using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine will endanger a peace deal, according to FT.

OTHERS

• US President Trump said regarding Venezuela that they will begin to stop drug cartels on land soon.
• Russian President Putin to visit India between December 4th-5th, according to IFX.
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to visit Russia between December 1st-2nd.

• APAC stocks were rangebound in the absence of a lead from Wall Street due to Thanksgiving Day and as participants digest a deluge of data at month-end.
• ASX 200 lacked direction as strength in the tech, mining and the consumer sectors is counterbalanced by losses in financials, real estate and telecoms.
• Nikkei 225 traded indecisively amid a slew of data in which Industrial Production and Retail Sales topped forecasts, while Unemployment rose and Tokyo CPI printed mostly in line with estimates, aside from the firmer-than-expected core reading.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, albeit with trade confined to within relatively tight parameters, while China Vanke shares and bonds were volatile and initially continued to slump with its H shares hitting a record low amid the ongoing default concerns, before staging a notable recovery.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoJ decided to increase the upper limit on the consecutive-day purchases of the same issue under the Securities Lending Facility (SLF) for 10-year JGBs from Dec 1st.
• Japan finalised JPY 18.3tln extra budget to fund stimulus package
• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) appoints new CEO, Tae-Moon Roh.
• Meituan (3690 HK) Q3 (CNY): Revenue 95.5bln (exp. 97.5bln), Adj Net -16bln (exp. -13.96bln); sees operating loss trend to continue in Q4; market competition remained overheated recently.

DATA RECAP

• Taiwan Q3 GDP 8.2% Y/Y (prelim. 7.64%). Guidance: 2025 7.37% (prev. 4.45%), 2026 3.54% (prev. 2.81%)
• Japanese Unemployment Rate (Oct) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.6%)
• Japanese Jobs/Applicants Ratio (Oct) 1.18 vs. Exp. 1.2 (Prev. 1.2)
• Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Oct P) 1.4% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. 2.6%)
• Japanese Industrial Production YY SA (Oct P) 1.5% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 2.0%)
• Japanese Retail Sales YY (Oct) 1.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.5%, Rev. 0.2%)
• Tokyo CPI YY (Nov) 2.7% vs Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.8%)
• Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Nov) 2.8% vs Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.8%)
• Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Nov) 2.8% vs Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.8%)

• APAC stocks were rangebound in the absence of a lead from Wall Street due to Thanksgiving Day and as participants digest a deluge of data at month-end.
• An outage at CME Group has halted trade in FX, commodities, Treasuries and equities futures; "Due to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centres, our markets are currently halted," CME said. 
• US President Trump said regarding Venezuela that they will begin to stop drug cartels on land soon.
• S&P said UK public finances remain constrained and it expects fiscal pressures in the UK to persist over the medium term despite revenue-raising measures announced in the Autumn Budget.
• European equity futures indicate a quiet open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures flat after the cash market finished little changed on Thursday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German Import Prices (Oct), Retail Sales (Oct), French GDP Final (Q3), Prelim. HICP (Nov), Spanish Flash HICP (Nov), German Prelim. HICP (Nov), Italian Prelim. HICP (Nov), Swiss KOF (Nov), GDP (Q3), German Unemployment (Nov), Canadian GDP (Q3), Credit Review for France, Comments from ECB's Nagel.
• Desk Schedule: There is normal service on Friday, 28th November until 18:15GMT/13:15EST at which point the desk will close.

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

• US markets were closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• Nexperia issued an open letter to the leadership of Nexperia’s entities in China and noted that it continues to seek constructive collaboration with its entities in China, and has been requesting an open dialogue to find a path forward. Furthermore, it urged the leadership of Co.’s entities in China to take immediate steps towards structured negotiations to address the restoration of the supply chain, but added that it did not receive any meaningful response.
• Indonesia is reportedly resisting attempts by US President Trump to force it to accept a so-called “poison pill” and other coercive clauses in its “reciprocal tariff” trade deal with the US, according to FT.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump said that they may be cutting income tax almost completely because of tariff proceeds.
• US President Trump posted that he will permanently pause migration from all third-world countries to allow the US system to fully recover and will terminate all of the millions of Biden's illegal admissions, while he will end all federal benefits and subsidies to non-citizens.
• US President Trump ordered a review of all green card holders from countries "of concern" after the attack on National Guards in Washington DC, according to Axios.
• CME announced that CME Globex futures and options markets were halted due to technical issues, and Cboe halted trading on C1 due to ongoing issues at CME. CME later announced that markets were halted due to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centres, while it is working to resolve the outage issue and will advise clients of pre-open details as soon as available.

• APAC stocks were rangebound in the absence of a lead from Wall Street due to Thanksgiving Day and as participants digest a deluge of data at month-end.
• ASX 200 lacked direction as strength in the tech, mining and the consumer sectors is counterbalanced by losses in financials, real estate and telecoms.
• Nikkei 225 traded indecisively amid a slew of data in which Industrial Production and Retail Sales topped forecasts, while Unemployment rose and Tokyo CPI printed mostly in line with estimates, aside from the firmer-than-expected core reading.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, albeit with trade confined to within relatively tight parameters, while China Vanke shares and bonds were volatile and initially continued to slump with its H shares hitting a record low amid the ongoing default concerns, before staging a notable recovery.
• US equity futures eked slight gains (before the CME halt) with price action muted following the Thanksgiving holiday lull and CME trading halt.
• European equity futures indicate a quiet open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures flat after the cash market finished little changed on Thursday.

• DXY remained rangebound following the Thanksgiving Day holiday and with reduced volumes also anticipated on Black Friday, while there was a lack of fresh catalysts, although there were some comments from US President Trump that they may be cutting income tax almost completely because of tariff proceeds.
• EUR/USD was lacklustre after pulling back from the 1.1600 handle and with little impact seen following the latest ECB rhetoric, including from ECB's Kazaks who said the time is not right to discuss a rate cut, while the ECB Minutes noted that all members agreed more information was needed before adjusting rates.
• GBP/USD proceeded sideways in quiet newsflow and after comments from BoE's Greene provided very little incrementally, in which she noted encouragement regarding evidence of wage growth and that services inflation is coming down.
• USD/JPY saw two-way trade amid a slew of data releases from Japan, including better-than-expected Industrial Production and Retail Sales, while the Unemployment Rate rose and Tokyo CPI printed mostly in line with estimates aside from the core reading which topped forecasts.
• Antipodeans lacked conviction amid the mixed risk appetite, although they held on to the spoils from earlier in the week.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0789 vs exp. 7.0769 (Prev. 7.0779)

• 10yr UST futures were lacklustre (before the CME halt) following the Thanksgiving holiday, with reduced trading hours stateside for Black Friday and amid CME issues.
• Bund futures lingered around the 129.00 level ahead of several German data releases, including Import Prices, Retail Sales, HICP and Unemployment.
• 10yr JGB futures declined, albeit in a choppy fashion, as participants digested a slew of data releases and a weaker 2-yr JGB auction.

• Crude futures marginally extended on the prior day's gains following the holiday-thinned conditions and with reports noting that OPEC+ is expected to hold oil output steady for Q1 2026 at its meeting on Sunday, while trade in WTI was halted due to the CME outage issue.
• Canadian PM Carney said a new pipeline to ship oil to Asia is a priority, while Carney and the Alberta Premier agreed to eliminate the federal emissions cap on the oil and gas sector and strengthen industrial carbon pricing and carbon storage. It was later reported that the Canadian Identity and Culture Minister resigned from the Cabinet over the disagreement with the Carney government's deal with Alberta.
• Spot gold resumed its advances alongside gains in silver and after breaking out of its mid-week range.
• Copper futures attempted to nurse some of the prior day's losses, but with the recovery limited amid the tentative overnight risk tone and CME stoppage.

• Bitcoin was rangebound and traded on both sides of the USD 91,000 level.
• South Korea suspects that North Korea hacked crypto exchange Upbit, according to Yonhap.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Unemployment Rate (Oct) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.6%)
• Japanese Jobs/Applicants Ratio (Oct) 1.18 vs. Exp. 1.2 (Prev. 1.2)
• Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Oct P) 1.4% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. 2.6%)
• Japanese Industrial Production YY SA (Oct P) 1.5% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 2.0%)
• Japanese Retail Sales YY (Oct) 1.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.5%, Rev. 0.2%)
• Tokyo CPY YY (Nov) 2.7% vs Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.8%)
• Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food YY (Nov) 2.8% vs Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.8%)
• Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Nov) 2.8% vs Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.8%)

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian and US delegations will meet this week to work out a formula for peace and security discussed in the Geneva talks.
• Ukrainian Presidential top aide said should not count on them giving up territory as long as Zelensky is President.
• Belgium warned that using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine will endanger a peace deal, according to FT.

OTHER NEWS

• US President Trump said regarding Venezuela that they will begin to stop drug cartels on land soon.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• BoE's Greene said it's encouraging that services inflation is coming down, and evidence on wage growth is encouraging. Greene said slack opened up in the labour market and the economy, while she expects slack to increase and said the BoE’s projection is benign. Furthermore, she said inflation has stabilised and her big concern is around second-round effects.
• S&P said UK public finances remain constrained and it expects fiscal pressures in the UK to persist over the medium term despite revenue-raising measures announced in the Autumn Budget, while it added that general government deficits are forecast to moderate through to 2028 and there are risks to the UK’s fiscal consolidation plan, especially toward the end of the forecast horizon.

DATA RECAP

• UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Nov) 42 vs Exp. 47 (Prev. 50)