During a slow Thanksgiving week on the Hill, attention is largely focused on the new year, when Democratic incumbents in the Senate will go full speed into campaign mode in an attempt to hang on to their seats. Few seats are more important to Senate Democrats next year than those occupied by Montana’s Jon Tester and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, who have proven they can emerge victorious even as their states go red.

Republicans are also dipping their toes in the water; the NRSC is launching a new digital ad targeting Arizonans with the goal of driving them back to independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema’s camp instead of Democratic challenger Ruben Gallego’s. But could it backfire? Playbook co-author Rachael Bade walks us through.

All of this, plus President Biden pardons a turkey on the South Lawn today.