Old Bull

Video version at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-FR_7ivu_k. 

This week, Rachel's joined by the Lincoln Project's Rick Wilson to examine how the Republican Party has consistently out-campaigned Democrats, notching win after win even states where they're heavily outnumbered (looking at you, Florida). 

Can Rick and his elite crew of former GOP heavyweights use the party's devastatingly effective playbook against it in their 2020 messaging? And which party is best positioned to win the vote-by-mail war? 

Plus, Rachel briefs you on a key rating change in her Electoral College map and answers a whole bunch of viewer questions! 

All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.

Video version at https://youtu.be/Lo4dukrE5wM

The famously powerless District of Columbia kindly requests its due recognition as the 51st state. In an initial step toward realizing that dream, the U.S. House has just obliged with its passage of the Washington, D.C. Admission Act.

So what exactly would it take to stitch another star on the flag? And what would it means for the balance of power if the swamp had voting members in Congress?

NRO's Dan McLaughlin has all the answers.

Check out Dan online at https://www.nationalreview.com/author/dan-mclaughlin and on Twitter at https://twitter.com/baseballcrank.

Matthew and Sarbjit sit down with Maurice Mcleod (social commentator, vice chair of Race On the Agenda, and Labour Councillor) to weigh the odds of black Conservative Party candidate Shaun Bailey toppling incumbent London mayor Sadiq Khan in the upcoming election.

If Bailey can't do it... could Stormzy? Or Prince Harry?

Also on the agenda:

How will London's ranked choice voting system affect the outcome?

And how long will Boris Johnson last as Prime Minister?

Your hosts:

Sarbjit Bakhshi, head of political markets at Smarkets

@sarbjit_pol

Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes

@shadsy

Maurice Mcleod, writer, commentator, Labour Councillor

@mowords

Video version here. 

With some money in their pockets, Eric, Jared and Nick are rockets on the 4th of July! 

Las Vegas' native son Jared leads the mappers on an electoral expedition through the Silver State. 

Follow your hosts on Twitter:Eric: @decunningham2Jared: @jstonepoliticsNick: @tossupreport

Email us at [email protected].

All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.

Video version here. 

It's the premiere of Rachel Bitecofer's "election nerd Disneyland."

The Election Whisperer is a weekly exploration of Dr. Bitecofer's political analysis and election forecasts, packed with data-driven deep dives, in-depth interviews with the best and brightest election modelers and campaign strategists, and answers to viewer-submitted questions.

This week, Rachel sits down with Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the UVA Center for Politics to talk veepstakes.

If you're watching during the premiere at 6 pm ET on June 24, stick around after the show for an exclusive Q&A with Rachel in the live chat.

Be sure to subscribe to the show, please consider leaving us a favorable ratings and reviews, and check out our other shows at OldBull.tv.

All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.

Sarbjit and Matthew are joined by Ipsos MORI pollster Keiran Pedley to discuss whether new UK Labour Leader Keir Starmer may be able to ride his record-high approval ratings to electoral victory.

Also on the agenda:

Is there room for a durable 4th party in UK politics?

What would the balance of power look like if Scotland were to exit?

And just how generic a Democrat is Joe Biden?

Your hosts:

Sarbjit Bakhshi, head of political markets at Smarkets@sarbjit_pol

Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes@shadsy

Keiran Pedley, pollster for Ipsos MORI@keiranpedley

Be sure to subscribe to the show, please consider leaving us favorable ratings and reviews, and check out all our shows at OldBull.tv.

Cold Funk Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.

Video version here.

Minnesota is a political odd duck.

It hasn't gone to a Republican presidential candidate since Nixon, yet it swung slightly to the right of the country in 2016 for the first time since the 1950s.

It's not quite a swing state yet, but it features the nation's only split state legislature and a surprising number of competitive Congressional seats.

As the home state of one of the 2020 Democratic presidential finalists, now a focal point of civil unrest, and going forward potentially a legitimate tossup, Minnesota is a quizzical state that election forecasters need to understand.

Eric, Jared and Nick have you covered.

Follow your hosts on Twitter:Eric: @decunningham2Jared: @jstonepoliticsNick: @tossupreport

Email us at [email protected].

All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.

Video version here.

In a special crossover episode, OldBull.tv and Star Spangled Gamblers offer up a comprehensive quickstart guide for the aspiring political trader.

You'll learn:

- What political prediction markets are- How to interpret market prices- Avoiding rookie mistakes like ideological investing and long-shot bias- The best (and worst) sources market analysis- How to arbitrage market inefficiency using "negative risk"- Whether or not you should read a market's rules

Email us at [email protected] and follow us at @oldbulltv.

Our guests are on Twitter too:

Keendawg: @keendawgssgPratik: @pjchougule

Check out Pratik's e-book.

Music from https://filmmusic.io"Funkorama" by Kevin MacLeod (https://incompetech.com)License: CC BY (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.

Sarbjit and Matthew bring in Chris Terry from the University of Manchester to discuss the upcoming French presidential election and the impact of comedians and coronavirus (among other things).

Also on the agenda:

Which European leader is the favorite to be next ousted from office?

Parliamentary redistricting in the UK.

What's the deal with the Isle of Wight?

Your hosts:Sarbjit Bakhshi, head of political markets at Smarkets@sarbjit_pol

Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes@shadsy

Chris Terry, PhD student at University of Manchester@CJTerry

Be sure to subscribe to the show, please consider leaving us a favorable ratings and reviews, and check out our other shows at OldBull.tv.

Cold Funk Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.

Video version here.

Eric, Jared and Nick head west to explore the potential presidential tipping state of Arizona.

Can Trump keep the Copper State in his column? Does appointed incumbent Senator Martha McSally stand a chance against Mark Kelly? And what does the state's ongoing demographic shift mean for its electoral future?

Follow your hosts on Twitter:Eric: @decunningham2Jared: @jstonepoliticsNick: @tossupreport

Email us at [email protected].

All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.