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Old Bull episodes
- Predicting Across the Pond (Conference Hour 3)
Video at https://youtu.be/rkLvh7IeeUg
In this session of the 2020 Political Prediction Conference, from American Civics Exchange (amciv.com) and OldBull.TV:
Patrick Young moderates a panel of European prediction market executives, to discuss how cross-border cultural and regulatory differences can help or hinder a market's liquidity, forecast accuracy and general usefulness.
Panel:
Patrick Young, moderator (patricklyoung.net)Matthew Shaddick (ladbrokes.com)Sarbjit Bakhshi (smarkets.com/politics)Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv.
Email us at [email protected].Music from https://filmmusic.io "Funkorama" by Kevin MacLeod (https://incompetech.com)
License: CC BY (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.
48 min - Black Boxes and Black Swans (Conference Hour 2)
Video at https://youtu.be/EjnUT5ByR7A
In this session of the 2020 Political Prediction Conference, from American Civics Exchange (amciv.com) and OldBull.TV:
A one-on-one discussion between host Flip Pidot and Rachel Bitecofer, Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center (www.niskanencenter.org), with a disrupter's guide to better election forecasting.
Dr. Bitecofer explains why the prevailing theories of electoral modeling have got it all wrong and how her focus on hyper-polarization and turnout modeling enabled her to outperform the forecasting elites in 2018. Plus, an exclusive preview of her initial 2020 House forecast!
Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv.
Email us at [email protected].Music from https://filmmusic.io "Funkorama" by Kevin MacLeod (https://incompetech.com)
License: CC BY (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.
37 min - Models vs. Markets (Conference Hour 1)
Video at https://youtu.be/vDYkGODIYzI
In the first session of the 2020 Political Prediction Conference, from American Civics Exchange (amciv.com) and OldBull.TV:
A one-on-one discussion between host Flip Pidot and Harry Crane (harrycrane.com), Associate Professor of Statistics and Co-Graduate Director at Rutgers University, who presents his Fundamental Principle of Probability and why "freerolling" journalistic election forecasters fail to live up to it.
Dr. Crane crunches the numbers to see how Nate Silver's celebrated 538 election model stacks up against what Silver calls the "dumb money" forecasts of prediction markets like PredictIt.
Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv.
Email us at [email protected].Music from https://filmmusic.io "Funkorama" by Kevin MacLeod (https://incompetech.com)
License: CC BY (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.
45 min - 2020 Political Prediction Conference (Opening Remarks)
Video at https://youtu.be/26H4EdLqX9g
Flip Pidot opens the conference.
Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv.
Email us at [email protected].All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.
8 min - Quarantine Roundtable III
Video at https://youtu.be/Faxu0CGy26g
For this installment, we’ve assembled an elite squad of international futurists and decision scientists and we’re asking them to gaze into the post-coronavirus future to tell us what life might look like on the other side.
Your panel:
Flip Pidot, host (twitter.com/flippidot)Pavel Atanasov (twitter.com/PavelDAtanasov)Jordi Serra del Pino (twitter.com/jserradelp)Brett Specter (twitter.com/brettabroad)Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv.
Email us at [email protected].Music from https://filmmusic.io "Funkorama" by Kevin MacLeod (https://incompetech.com)
License: CC BY (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.
50 min - Quarantine Roundtable II
Video at https://youtu.be/4_XZMC4Cafw
It's our second installment of Quarantine Roundtable, helping you trade your way through the apocalypse on the political prediction markets.
Jason Pipkin (@jipkin) and Derek Phillips (@DmpFromPI) are back with their picks on the rapidly changing electoral map, the dismal economic data, and whether (and when) the Democrats might actually hold a convention.
Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv.
Email us at [email protected].Music from https://filmmusic.io "Funkorama" by Kevin MacLeod (https://incompetech.com)
License: CC BY (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.
32 min - Quarantine Roundtable: Trading the Apocalypse
Video at https://youtu.be/tDkWZVKOcJY
For this very special edition, we’ve convinced 5 of the finest prediction market pros to join us live from their coronavirus bunkers to share their End Time trading strategies.
The @PredictIt glitterati at our virtual roundtable are Jason Pipkin (@jipkin), Derek Phillips (@DmpFromPI), Keendawg from StarSpangledGamblers.com (@keendawgSSG), Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) and Zoltar (@truthBomber_).
They're here to help you forecast what life will look like on the other end of all this.
Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv.
Email us at [email protected].Music from https://filmmusic.io "Funkorama" by Kevin MacLeod (https://incompetech.com)
License: CC BY (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.
48 min - Can Prediction Markets Fight Coronavirus?
Video at https://youtu.be/R3yJnm3WbrE
COVID-19 is wreaking havoc not just on its hundreds of thousands of biological victims, but on the very viability of the global health care infrastructure, financial markets, and the daily routines of billions of people.
Can prediction markets help humanity even the score? Could they help policymakers and the general public anticipate and respond more quickly and effectively to unfolding emergencies like the coronavirus pandemic?
Yes.
But should they?
Also, yes.
Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv.
Email us at [email protected].Music from https://filmmusic.io "Funkorama" by Kevin MacLeod (https://incompetech.com)
License: CC BY (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.
16 min - How Are Prediction Markets Different From Gambling?
Video at https://youtu.be/hf6s2vZ2GMg
Today, we answer an insightful question from a viewer.
Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv.
Email us at [email protected].Music from https://filmmusic.io "Funkorama" by Kevin MacLeod (https://incompetech.com)
License: CC BY (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are fo
7 min
About Old Bull
From the publisher's feed
From American Civics Exchange, Flip Pidot hosts your insider's guide to political prediction markets.
Video versions of most shows available at OldBull.tv.