On The Market

There’s one key housing market factor that leads to home price growth. It doesn’t have to do with interest rates, property taxes, or weather. This single metric is the strongest predictor of your home price rising, staying stagnant, or falling. If you know where this metric is peaking, you can follow a data-driven trail to housing markets that will soon have higher home prices and get in before the masses.

What’s the secret metric we’re talking about?

Well, it’s not so much of a secret. This metric is easy to find online and can help you pinpoint markets with the highest potential for price growth. So, if it’s so easy to find, why isn’t every real estate investor using it? Mainly because most investors don’t know how important this metric is.

But today, we’re showing you exactly how to track where home prices could rise, how to pinpoint the neighborhoods within your market that could experience high price growth, and why this easily available predictive metric may change as the economy shifts.

In This Episode We Cover

The number one way of predicting whether home prices will grow in an area

How this metric strongly influences migration and brings more demand to cities

Where to find this data for free and the easy way to predict home price growth

Trends to start watching now that could foretell which cities will rise (and shrink)

How to find the fast-growing (and stable) neighborhoods to invest in within your city

And So Much More!

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BiggerPockets Daily 1431 - 12 Cities You’ll Regret You Didn’t Invest In 10 Years From Now

Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Jump to topic:

(00:00) #1 “Growth” Metric

(04:01) Could Remote Work Change This? 

(08:13) These Jobs Push Prices UP

(11:06) How to Predict Market Moves 

(15:45) Trends to Watch 

(19:15) Finding Growing Neighborhoods

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Is now the time to stop investing and start saving cash instead? As an “asset bubble” balloons larger and larger, every investment is looking overpriced. Homes are at all-time high prices with massive mortgage payments, stock price-to-earnings ratios are reaching dangerous levels, and Bitcoin is hovering around six figures. We constantly talk about how consistently investing in real estate leads to long-term wealth, but is now the time to pause?

J Scott, the author of Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing and expert flipper, multifamily investor, and more, has significantly shifted how he’s using his money. While deals were plentiful before rates rose, they're now much harder to find—and not just in real estate. Who knows which tech and AI stocks will be worthless in a few years and which cryptos will crash?

So, what should you do with your money at this inflection point in the economy? Should you hoard cash and wait for opportunities, or follow the “dollar-cost averaging” advice and invest regularly? Will doing so cause you to miss out on opportunities if the economy begins to shift? We’re asking J his take in this episode!

In This Episode We Cover

J’s current investment portfolio and why he feels he has too much real estate

Exactly what J would do today if he were given $100,000 to invest

The 2025 “asset bubble” that has already formed (will it pop?)

The assets J is selling and why he stresses diversification in a different way

2025 buying opportunities and the major discount you could score on one profitable type of real estate

Why J thinks you should be putting MORE money down on your real estate deals now

And So Much More!

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BiggerPockets Real Estate 1071 - The Macro Analysis is Clear: Why We Are Reallocating (Away From Stocks) to Real Estate in 2025

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Grab J’s Book, “Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(01:32) J’s Investment Portfolio 

(04:14) Don’t Buy Real Estate?

(05:56) The 2025 “Asset Bubble” 

(09:46) Why J is Selling 

(17:31) Timing the Market, Worth It?

(18:38) 2025 Buying Opportunities 

(27:06) Buy in Cash OR Hoard Cash? 

(33:10) Put MORE Money Down

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Interest rates are still rising even three years after the first rate hikes. So what should you do: wait to buy when rates are lower, sell the underperforming properties you have while prices are high, or keep buying in hopes you can refinance? We’re explaining what each of us is doing with our money during this seven-percent rate era, plus how to score a lower rate loan on rental properties most investors overlook.

How is James planning on doubling his money even with high rates? By bringing back a once-popular investing strategy, James is creating a win-win no matter what direction rates go. You can repeat this, too, if you know his plan. Kathy shares how you can lock in a lower mortgage rate by buying new construction, freeing up cash flow all while having close-to-zero maintenance costs.

Henry shares some advice on why now is a solid time to think about selling the properties you don’t love and why high home prices can work in your favor whether you’re flipping, BRRRR-ing, or buy-and-holding. 

In This Episode We Cover

How to still invest in real estate during high interest rates (plus our exact 2025 strategies)

Why now may be the perfect time to sell the properties you’re tired of holding

Better buying opportunities for new builds and how to score a low interest rate on a new property

James’ plan to double his money (and create cash flow) with a refreshed type of BRRRR strategy

The type of loan that has BETTER rates than residential financing (but can be used for rentals!)

And So Much More!

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BiggerPockets Daily 1263 - Investors: Stop Worrying About Interest Rates—Here’s Why Right Now Is the Time to Buy

Pick Your 2025 Investing Strategy with Dave’s Book, “Start with Strategy”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(03:02) Cash Flow Down, Prices Up 

(07:58) Better Opportunity to Buy? 

(12:26) Double Your Money with BRRRR 

(21:24) Lower Rate Loans/Strategies 

(26:23) “Debt Swap” Financing

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A startup surge is coming, bringing lots of money, jobs, and housing demand with it. But this time, it isn’t Silicon Valley, Seattle, or Miami bringing in the angel investors and seed funding rounds…it’s the Midwest! This is no surprise—with lower home prices, higher affordability, favorable tax environments, and plenty of top universities, the Midwest could become a booming tech economy, but which cities will benefit most?

Austin Wolff is back on the show, bringing the data with him, and he brought Chicago-based investor and agent Dan Nelson to share which cities are the best bet for real estate investors.

We’re tackling the top five Midwest housing markets for startups, going through home prices, job growth, population growth, tax environment, and universities that could produce the educated employees startups rely on. Which markets could see killer appreciation (and cash flow) once this startup boom solidifies? We’re giving you the full list in this episode!

In This Episode We Cover

How the Midwest slowly became a haven for startups and tech companies

What makes a market “startup-friendly” and will lead to bigger business growth

The number one market with affordable home prices and great universities—but there’s one downside to watch out for

Midwest cities where you can still find high appreciation

Is this soon-to-be chip manufacturing city already overhyped by real estate investors?

The three markets we would buy rental properties in

And So Much More!

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5 Reasons the Midwest is Hands Down the Best Place to Invest

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Midweststartups.com

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Dan's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab Dave’s New Book, “Start with Strategy”

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Tariffs and trade wars could affect mortgage rates much more than most Americans think. You’ve heard on the news that tariffs on Canada mean higher gas prices, tariffs on Mexico mean a bigger grocery bill, and tariffs on China lead to electronics and appliances becoming even more expensive. However, as a real estate investor or homeowner waiting to refinance, the key number to watch for the impact of tariffs is interest rates.

Today, we’re breaking down how the tariffs will affect you, which prices will rise, which real estate investments will become even more costly, and how interest rates have been held hostage by tariff threats. If tariffs are contributing to the current high mortgage rates, could tariff concessions lead to lower rates? If President Trump can work out deals with trade partners, would this mean a cheaper mortgage payment?

We’re breaking down tariffs, trade wars, rising prices, and how they’ll affect your real estate investments.

In This Episode We Cover

New tariff update: which countries have reached a deal and which are currently tariffed

Why mortgage rates are surprisingly affected by tariffs and trade wars

Who pays the tariffs once they’re in place (most Americans have this WRONG)

A post-tariff inflation prediction and whether we’ll bump back to pandemic inflation levels

Trump’s two primary goals for imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China

And So Much More!

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On The Market 290 - Redfin: Tariff Fears Drive Up Mortgage Rates, Throwing 2025 Off-Track

Know the Numbers BEFORE You Invest with “Real Estate by the Numbers”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(03:21) Tariffs Imposed, Now Paused

(05:26) Trump’s Tariff Goal

(07:48) Who Pays the Tariff?

(12:17) Inflation Prediction

(13:19) Which Prices Will Rise?

(16:49) Cars Could Cost Much More

(19:04) China's 10% Tariff Starts Now

(20:24) Big Mortgage Rate Effects

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With evidence of a global recession piling up, Americans have just one question—will we be affected? So far, everything is going well for the US. Job growth continues, unemployment is low, and asset prices are high, but with the global economy becoming increasingly interlinked, could a crash in Europe or Asia pull us down with them? Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics, has a contrarian viewpoint that defies the masses.

But Mark has bigger worries than a global recession taking down the US economy. We could be our own worst enemy as “tinder” for an interest rate fire begins to pile up, and the bond market may be more than ready to light it. Even with President Trump’s push for lower interest rates and the Fed pausing rate cuts, could we see mortgage rates fly up higher, defying the system meant to keep them in check?

Plus, what does DeepSeek’s entry into the AI race mean for the US economy? Could this cheaper, sleeker AI bring serious competition not only to the US AI market but also to chip manufacturers whose stock prices have been carrying the market to record highs? It’s a lot to unpack, but Mark does a phenomenal job laying it all out. 

In This Episode We Cover

Whether the US’s strong economy could falter during the next global recession

DeepSeek’s threat to the US tech market and whether we’re facing another “dot-com bubble” scenario

Why interest rates are scarily close to rising again as the bond market gets increasingly frustrated

The catalyst for home prices to drop with so many “locked-in” homeowners

Are stocks way too overvalued with price-to-earnings ratios at record highs?

And So Much More!

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On the Market 285 - Bond “Vigilantes” Hold Interest Rates Hostage as Rate Cut Hopes Shrink

Mark’s X/Twitter

Grab the Book, “Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(00:44) An “Exceptional” Economy, But… 

(04:53) Tariffs Could Cost Us 

(08:13) Why America is Winning

(10:46) Global Recession?

(12:44) Massive Interest Rate Risk

(20:23) Could Home Prices Fall? 

(23:30) DeepSeek Changes AI Race

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Which real estate trends could make you wealthier in 2025? Every year, it’s something new. A few years ago, it was short-term rentals, then mid-term rentals and multifamily investing took over. Now, the housing market has changed once again, and those same real estate investing trends aren’t so hot. So, what can you invest in NOW that gives you the highest return on the market before other investors realize it?

Today, we’re touching on three housing market trends that will skyrocket in 2025. Two of these are investing strategies that are making savvy investors serious money, and one is something EVERY single investor (and homeowner) must be aware of, or you could be stuck with a property bleeding money.

We’ll talk about the increase in “density” investing exploding demand for one often-overlooked type of asset, what to do when your cash flow is low in the wake of rising expenses, and why the silver tsunami may become the cash flow tsunami for one specific property. 

In This Episode We Cover

The one investment property that can make you $10,000 - $15,000 per MONTH in cash flow (it’s way smaller than you think)

Why local governments are pushing investors to build “dense” housing units

Is cash flow dead as expenses rise and rents stay stagnant?

Why smart investors are selling some of their properties that don’t meet THIS criteria

When James says to NOT build an ADU (or DADU) on your property

And So Much More!

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BiggerPockets Daily 1334 - A Wave of Zoning Law Changes Could Have Huge Impacts for Investors and Housing—Here’s What You Need to Know

Grab Dave’s Book “Start with Strategy”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(00:38) "Density" Investing with DADUs

(10:54) Is Cash Flow Dead?

(19:08) Assisted Living Demand Explodes

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Could Trump’s proposed tariffs be the reason for the recent rise in mortgage rates? Could this slow the housing market and cause affordability to get worse? What happens if rates stay higher for longer and more homebuyers get kicked out of the market? We’re talking to Redfin’s Chen Zhao about how tariffs will affect you and the surprising findings from a new homeowner survey foreshadowing something none of us wanted to see about housing inventory.

Tariffs could change many things: they could increase construction costs for houses, lead to higher inflation and higher mortgage rates, or put jobs back into American communities. Does the market believe the Trump administration will go forward with their flat tariff for most countries? Or will they pick and choose specific exporters within specific countries to tack a tariff onto?

Plus, why are sixty percent of homeowners planning NOT to sell their homes in the near future or…ever? If higher mortgage rates remain, will all those homeowners with low mortgage rates stay put without downsizing or moving, locking up housing inventory tighter than it currently is? It’s possible, potentially leading to long-term declines in real estate prices. But don’t worry, Chen breaks down the entire timeline.

In This Episode We Cover

Trump’s tariffs and the effect they’re having on mortgage rates 

Redfin’s shocking new homeowner survey that points to more locked-up inventory

Is a real estate price correction coming? Why prices could slump after rising

Whether or not the market thinks Trump will go forward with vast tariff proposals

Why interest rates could stay higher for longer than many of us expected

And So Much More!

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BiggerPockets Daily Podcast 1263 - Investors: Stop Worrying About Interest Rates—Here’s Why Right Now Is the Time to Buy

Redfin: More Than One-Third of Homeowners Say They’ll Never Sell

Grab Dave’s Book, “Real Estate by the Numbers”

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The housing market is changing. Some once-hot markets are showing signs of becoming buyer's markets, giving you a better opportunity to snag your next real estate deal. With days-on-market growing but underlying fundamentals looking strong, this could be one of the best times to buy houses in cities that have phenomenal long-term potential but haven't heated up again to become seller's markets.

Why not skip the competition and buy in great markets beginning to cool? Today, we share some of the best markets to buy in, with the biggest investment opportunities. Data scientist Austin Wolff is back to talk about the "coldest" markets that have the best buying potential and some affordable cities that still have below-average home prices but well above-average housing market metrics.

We're talking about why these buyer's markets are suddenly emerging, Dave's favorite "cold" market with serious potential, Kathy's famous money-making market seeing massive job growth, and what to look for when buying in these (temporarily) chilled housing markets.

In This Episode We Cover

The new buyer's markets that boast solid housing market fundamentals

Why some of the nation's top markets are seeing days-on-market rise 

Have homeowners finally accepted this new normal and are ready to sell?

Kathy's number one tip when buying and rehabbing older homes

The neighborhoods Dave's looking to buy in (long-term rent growth potential)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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Grab the Housing Market Data from Today’s Show

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Know the Numbers Before You Buy with “Real Estate By the Numbers”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(02:15) Why Housing is “Thawing”

(05:24) Signs Your Market is Slowing

(11:00) Buyer’s Markets Emerge

(15:19) New Buyer’s Markets

(21:10) Dave's Favorite “Cold” Market

(23:40) Do This Before Buying

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We’ve got great news for investors, agents, lenders, and first-time homebuyers: housing inventory is about to rise…big time. After years of limited inventory, with homebuyers fighting tooth and nail to get into just about any home, the tide is finally turning. Rick Sharga from CJ Patrick Company brings new data and insight to the show, sharing why we could return to pre-pandemic housing inventory levels by the end of 2025.

Why is that good news for so many of us? Because home prices could slow, if not drop, in some markets as buyers get a better selection of houses to choose from. Those “locked-in” owners with rock-bottom interest rates have waited long enough to sell, and 2025 could be the time they put their homes on the market. But if a new wave of inventory hits the housing market, are we at risk of a home price correction or a crash?

Rick shares what the data shows and why investors are so pessimistic about the current housing market, even with the inventory forecasts looking so good. Will foreclosures rise again as consumer debt hits an all-time high? Could more off-market deals be in the pipeline in 2025? We’re asking Rick and getting answers to all those questions in today’s show. 

In This Episode We Cover

A historic housing inventory rebound and why this is great news for buyers, agents, and lenders

Whether home prices will grow, stabilize, or crash with so much new inventory coming online

The new Investor Sentiment Survey and why optimism fell off a cliff in Q4 2024 

The single-biggest worry for rental property investors in 2025 and why it may get worse

How to still find motivated sellers even with foreclosures at low levels

And So Much More!

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BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast 1065 - It’s About to Get Good! (2025 Housing Market Predictions)

CJ Patrick Company

Investor Sentiment Survey

Grab Dave’s New Book, “Start with Strategy”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(01:15) Housing Inventory to Rebound in 2025

(06:27) Home Price Growth to Slow

(08:45) Could Home Prices Crash? 

(15:43) Investor Sentiment Falls

(21:53) Top Rising Cost for Rentals

(27:27) Foreclosure Deals?

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-288

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