On The Market

Are we in a recession? A lot of people certainly think so. After a surprisingly accurate recession indicator went off weeks ago, more and more Americans have begun to believe that we’re already facing an economic downturn. The problem? We rarely know we’re in a recession until we’re out of one. So, how can we be sure we’re in a recession and not just seeing a boomerang effect from the hot post-pandemic economy?

For many Americans, it sure FEELS like a recession. Unemployment has gradually increased, the cost of living has risen significantly over the past few years, and men may be buying fewer pairs of underwear (that’s actually a recession indicator). So, if we are in a recession, what should real estate investors do now to prepare so they don’t get the rug pulled on them before it’s too late? Do you sit tight or start contemplating selling properties?

Dave, Henry, and Kathy all share what they’d do in a recession, the not-so-obvious signs of a recession (or a recession in your specific industry), and whether or not they believe we’ll be in a recession over the next year. If the worst has yet to come, you’ll be able to spot the signs of a coming recession after this episode.

In This Episode We Cover

Whether or not we’re in a recession right now (and signs of one)

The one recession indicator going off that’s pointing to an economic downturn

Signs that we’re already in a recession and what we would do during one

How to deleverage yourself from riskier properties if the economy starts to slow

Whether or not a recession is still in the cards over the next year 

Why it may be time to start saving once your husband/brother/nephew stops wearing new underwear

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun!

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On The Market 238 - Recession “Yellow Flags” Emerge as Unemployment Metric Rises

Get Your BPCon2024 Tickets!

 59% of Americans wrongly think the U.S. is in a recession, report finds

Grab the Book “Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing”

Jump to topic:

00:00 Intro

03:08 Is This Time Different? 

04:26 Recession Indicators 

09:21 What Does “Recession” Mean?

20:15 What to Do During a Recession 

27:38 Are We in a Recession?

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-247 

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Mortgage rates are falling, but the Fed hasn’t made any rate cuts yet. What’s the deal? We’re explaining it all in this August mortgage rate update with repeat guest and lender-friend of the show, Caeli Ridge. Caeli fills us in on today’s mortgage interest rates, why rates are moving without any federal funds rate cuts happening, what could cause rates to go even lower, and whether paying points on your mortgage makes sense in the current market.

Good news for investors: interest rates are getting into the high sixes for some rental property loans, but lower rates aren’t always a good thing. With the economy slowing down and inflation (thankfully) seeing some significant progress, unemployment is rising, and better interest rates may come at the cost of a worse economy. But this isn’t a surprise, no matter how unfortunate it is for many workers in today’s market.

We’re getting Caeli’s take on the Fed’s next moves, today’s mortgage rates, and what’s in store for future rates. This is crucial commentary from a lender working on loan products for investors in today’s exact interest rate environment, and hearing her may change your next investing move. Dave also gives his opinion on the mortgage rates we could expect to see next year and whether buying or refinancing even makes sense now.

In This Episode We Cover

August 2024 mortgage rate updates and where investor interest rates are right now

Why mortgage rates have been falling WITHOUT the Fed lowering their rates

Paying mortgage points and whether or not it’s worth it if rates are continuing to fall

The BIG uptick in refinancing and purchasing activity since rates began to fall

Where Dave thinks mortgage rates could be next year

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

 Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun!

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With Mortgage Rates Falling, When Should Investors Refinance?

Get Dave’s Mortgage Point Calculator

Analyze Real Estate Like a Pro with “Real Estate by the Numbers”

Jump to topic:

00:00 Intro

00:54 Mortgage Rate Update

04:43 Powell Talks, Rates Change 

09:19 Bad News if Rates Fall 

10:27 What Else Affects Rates

14:04 “Points Options” Improve 

15:47 Advice for Investors 

18:20 Dave’s Take on Future Rates

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-246

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Kamala Harris has a plan to make it easier for first-time homebuyers to buy a house, but it comes at the expense of institutional investors. Eviction filings surge throughout the Sunbelt states, EVEN as apartment rent prices fall across all bedroom counts. And could commercial real estate’s struggles lead to you paying even higher property taxes? We’re getting into it all in today’s headlines show!

First, we’re talking about Kamala Harris’ new proposal to kick Wall Street out of the single-family homebuying arena, potentially opening up space for first-time homebuyers to finally break out of renting. The proposal sounds promising, but is it too late to actually impact today’s housing market when institutional investors take up such a small amount of the single-family supply? We’re giving our takes on the new proposal.

Apartment rent prices fall across all bedroom counts for the first time in years. But, even with seemingly improving rent affordability, eviction filings have surged across the South. Even with the rent drops, are tenants simply unable to pay such high prices for everything, rent included, in 2024? Lastly, we’re talking about how the decline in commercial real estate and office space has led to cities increasing property taxes, and by no small amount.

In This Episode We Cover

Whether Kamala Harris’ anti-Wall Street ownership proposal could work for homebuyers

Why apartment rent prices are falling, and whether or not this will continue

Single-family rents and why we AREN’T noticing them fall too

The real reason evictions have seen such a spike across the Sunbelt states

Commercial real estate-caused property tax hikes happening in THESE cities

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE 

Property Manager Finder

See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun!

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How the Financial Policies of Trump and Harris Could Impact Real Estate Investors

Kamala Harris wants to stop Wall Street's homebuying spree

 Asking Rents Fall Across All Bedroom Counts for First Time in 4 Years

 Evictions Surge in Major Cities in the American Sunbelt

How much do downtown real estate losses lead to property tax hikes?

Grab Dave’s Newest Book, “Start with Strategy”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(01:45) Harris’ New Homebuying Proposal 

(16:41) Rent Prices Fall 

(25:40) Evictions Surge in Sunbelt States

(36:13) CRE-Caused Property Tax Hikes

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and   https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-245

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New “broker fee” reform could help tenants save thousands of dollars when finding their next apartment or home to rent, but it could come at a significant cost to landlords. In big cities like Boston and New York, it’s not unusual for landlords to hire a broker to help bring in more potential tenants. The problem is that, unlike the rest of the United States, landlords in these cities DON’T have to pay the broker—the tenant does.

But this isn’t some small fee. These broker fees range from eight to fifteen percent of the annual rent, and in pricey Boston or New York City, that could mean thousands of dollars in fees to move into a new place. We brought on StreetEasy Senior Economist Kenny Lee to explain why this antiquated system is still in place and whether or not the reform will go through and help renters.

What are the economic implications for the rental market if these reforms are passed? Will this help renters, landlords, or both, and could it actually increase competition in already competitive markets by lowering the barrier to entry for finding a new rental?

In This Episode We Cover

Boston and NYC’s “broker fees” explained and why they’re so different from the rest of the US

How the broker fee reform could change the rental market in big cities

The cost of moving and how high broker fees restrict renters who are already struggling

What broker fee reform could do to rental property demand in these big cities

Broker fee negotiation and what the future looks like for landlords who have to pay these finder’s fees

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE 

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun!

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

New York City’s Real Estate Brokerages Could Be Destroyed By a New Law

Connect with Kenny

Grab Dave’s Newest Book, “Start with Strategy”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(02:22) Tenants Forced to Pay Fees

(05:18) Why in NYC?

(08:47) New Reform to Help Renters 

(12:09) Will This Change the Rental Market?

(15:16) Better for Everyone?

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and   https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-244

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We’re currently in a home insurance crisis. Everyone (except for Henry, apparently) is feeling the sting of home insurance prices rising significantly year after year. Some investors have seen their homes’ insurance costs double or triple over a few years. This is making it harder not only to protect your property but also to keep your cash flow. What do you do, and can anyone save us from this home insurance crisis?

Today, we’re discussing something too big to ignore: your home insurance bill. Premiums are rising fast across coastal states and are starting to creep inland. In this episode, we’re talking about why home insurance prices have gone up so much and so quickly, the state governments actively working to get premium prices down, and what investors MUST do now to limit the price hikes coming down the road.

We’re also exploring state-offered insurance programs that help homeowners whose policies have been dropped. Can the government come in and fix our insurance premium problems before it’s too late, or will rising prices lead to home price corrections as affordability suffers?

In This Episode We Cover

2024’s home insurance crisis and why premium prices are rising so fast

The states with the highest risk of insurance price hikes and what’s causing them

Government intervention and how some states are trying to limit rising prices

Whether or not higher insurance prices will cause home prices to correct in at-risk areas

What investors must do NOW to keep their insurance premiums reasonable

Whether people will start fleeing states with the highest insurance costs and move to more affordable areas

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE 

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun!

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

On The Market 218 - These “Subtle Risks” Could Have Astronomical Impacts on Real Estate Expenses w/John Sheffield

Learn How to Run the Numbers BEFORE You Buy with Dave’s Book “Real Estate by the Numbers”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(02:52) California Wildfires 

(06:03) Where Insurance Isn't Exploding 

(08:48) Why Insurance Prices are Rising 

(10:38) State Regulations Limit Price Hikes

(13:38) Check Your Policy NOW

(19:07) Effects on Home Prices 

(23:44) Should the Government Step In?

(31:51) What Should Investors Do?

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-243

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A couple of years ago, everyone was expecting an “Airbnbust,” where short-term rental investments would sit vacant, hosts would be forced to sell, and hotels would take the reigns as the leaders in hospitality. But that didn’t (exactly) happen. Instead, we got a slightly slower short-term rental market with fewer bookings, some more supply, and a slight dip in revenue for hosts. The short-term rental market is now reaching “equilibrium,” and demand is returning. So, what do hosts need to know now?

Jamie Lane from AirDNA, the leading global short-term rental data and analytics company that tracks every listing on the market, is here to give us a mid-year update. Jamie talks about how the short-term rental market is returning to normal, why demand is starting to shoot back up all while prices are dropping, and the “cracks in the system” that could point to future short-term rental weakness.

He points out the short-term rental markets with the most growth potential, the oversupplied ones seeing drops in demand, and why the European Airbnb scene, even with its regulations, is exploding. Plus, he’ll share the amenities and policy changes you can make NOW to get more bookings and what to look for BEFORE you buy in a new market.

In This Episode We Cover

A 2024 short-term rental market update (supply, demand, pricing, and threats)

The short-term rentals seeing the least demand, and why this may be worrying for hosts

“Fringe” markets that are performing even better than the traditionally popular markets

Why hosts are seeing a drop in revenue and the markets with weak demand 

International travelers returning and the minor tweaks you can make to get more bookings

Jamie’s forecast for the rest of the year and why he predicts demand will rise this fall

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Get the Short-Term Rental Furnishing List

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

See James and Kathy at BPCON2024 in Cancun!

#Airbnbust One Year Later: Did the Short-Term Rental Industry Ever Collapse?

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab the Book, “Short-Term Rental, Long-Term Wealth”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(01:43) 2024 Short-Term Rental Update 

(04:56) "Cracks" Start to Form 

(07:24) Markets with Growing Demand 

(11:07) Markets to Be Cautious Of 

(15:52) International Travelers Return 

(21:20) Must-Have Amenities/Policies 

(24:10) 2024 Predictions 

(25:59) How to Set Your Prices

(28:25) Why Nightly Rates Are Falling 

(29:55) Growing STR Markets 

(32:19) Everyone's Going to Europe!

(36:40) Best Opportunities for Investors

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-242 

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Why are developers ditching California NOW? Is commercial real estate still struggling, and what’s up with all those empty office buildings all over town? Does it seem like everyone is overpaying for properties nowadays? It’s not just you; we’ve been seeing it, too, but there’s a reason why they’re doing it. Today, we’re touching on hot topics from the BiggerPockets Forums and giving our takes on what investors are seeing in today’s housing market.

First, everyone has another reason to bag on California real estate as developers decide to move out of the state, thanks to rising construction costs, long permitting times, and bureaucratic inefficiencies. But in a state with such massive appreciation and high rents, is it really the right move to make?

Next, we’re back to the commercial real estate crash, specifically, the office investing space crash, as more and more buildings sit vacant. There’s one way to solve this, and doing so could make you a LOT of money. Who’s got the guts (and the money) to make something out of all those empty offices? Finally, we’re discussing WHY investors commonly overpay for properties and how they may be making money EVEN when you think their offers are ridiculous.

Do you have an investing question? Ask it on the BiggerPockets Forums!  

In This Episode We Cover

The developer departure from California and why builders are ditching the Golden State

Changing regulations and how it’s getting harder to build rental units 

Office space’s continued struggles and the one way investors can solve this problem

Overpaying for properties and why investors commonly offer over the ARV (after repair value)

How to audit your construction/renovation costs to know if you’re throwing away money on your rehabs

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Ask Your Question on the BiggerPockets Forums

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

 Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

See Henry, James, and Kathy at BPCON2024 in Cancun!

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

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Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

A New California Law Just Increased Regulations On Home Flippers

Real Developers Leaving California

What Does the Future Hold for the Office Market?

So many value add buildings selling at higher total project cost then ARV

Grab Henry’s New Book “Real Estate Deal Maker”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(01:14) Investors Quit on California 

(10:11) CRE Continues to Suffer 

(19:28) Overpaying for Properties?

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-241

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For the past 999 episodes of the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast, we’ve heard stories from investors who have achieved financial freedom through rental property investing. However, when we started this podcast in 2013, it was a different time. The housing market had crashed just years earlier, prices were still recovering, and cash flow was abundant in many markets. But things have changed, and now we’re changing, too. Welcome to our 1,000th episode and your first look at the new BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast.

We’re getting back to the basics, sharing investor strategies that work in today’s market and showcasing the data investors need to know now so they can reach financial freedom faster. Our first guest on this new wealth-building journey is Scott Trench, CEO of BiggerPockets and rental property investor.

Today, we ask Scott, “Is financial freedom still possible through real estate, and if so, how do investors achieve it in this housing market?” Scott shares what both beginner and experienced investors must do now to reach financial freedom, who should even be investing in the first place, and the best beginner investment EVERYONE listening to this should be taking full advantage of. 

Ready to start building your path to financial freedom today? The BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast is the best place to be! 

We also want to thank David Greene and Rob Abasolo for their massive contributions—David Greene for nearly 7 years as a host and co-host of the podcast, and Rob Abasolo for many of the past 250 episodes. They did a fantastic job building on the foundations poured by our Founder, Josh Dorkin, and Brandon Turner and continued the work of changing millions of lives.

While we had hoped that Rob and David would continue to stay on as hosts in this rotational capacity, we completely understand their desire to move on to their next adventures, and wish them success in those endeavors, knowing that they will continue to change many lives with their thought leadership. We wish them the best of luck in their next endeavors.

In This Episode We Cover

The new BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast and what we’re changing starting today

Whether you can still achieve financial freedom through real estate in 2024

The best beginner strategy to start building wealth, EVEN with little money

Who should begin investing in real estate and whether you have what it takes

The problem with “passive income” and why hands-on rentals beat it

Investing in affordable markets and who should start with out-of-state investing

How you can become a millionaire without having a huge rental portfolio

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Find Your Next Investing Market with BiggerPockets Market Finder

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Let Us Know What You Thought of the Show!

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

See Dave and Scott at BPCON2024 in Cancun!

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast 1 - Building a Successful House Flipping Business and Losing Millions with Marty Boardman

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Scott's BiggerPockets Profile

How the “Middle-Class Trap” Stops Your Early Retirement

 Lend to Live

 Millions of Americans Should Keep Their Homes as Rentals, Not Sell. Here’s Why.

 On the Market Podcast

 Yes, I’m Afraid of a Real Estate Bubble—But I Continue to Invest Anyway. Here’s Why.

Grab Scott’s Book, “Set for Life”

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-240

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Why is everyone ignoring this one severe housing market trend, what does a 2008 crash predictor think will happen in 2025, and why are homes starting to sit longer on the market, even with mortgage rates starting to fall? Are all the headlines pointing to housing market havoc or a return to normalization where homes aren’t flying off the market like they were just a few years ago? We’re getting into it all in this headlines episode as we touch on four of the top housing market stories from this week and give our opinions on whether they’re hype or not.

First, a market-shifting trend has substantial side effects on the housing market. We’ve talked about this before, but many homebuyers are overlooking it. This trend could push people out of once-popular housing markets and into underrated areas that boast far more future-proofed benefits. What’s the trend we’re talking about? Tune in to find out!

We’re also discussing the increase in average days on market (DOM), why homes are sitting for longer, and whether this is something to be concerned about. Think moving to Washington, Texas, or Florida will save you money due to no income taxes? Think again because there are some serious downsides to no-income-tax states most investors don’t think about. Finally, we’re analyzing a 2008 crash predictor’s 2025 forecast—could he be right again? 

In This Episode We Cover

The one housing market trend hiding in plain sight that could become a considerable issue soon

A 2008 crash predictor’s take on the 2025 housing market and whether home prices will decline

Why so many people are reversing on the “great reshuffling” and moving away from sunny states

A sizable bump in homes sitting on the market and why it’s taking longer to sell

The serious downsides of buying/investing in a no-income-tax state

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

See Henry, James, and Kathy at BPCON2024 in Cancun!

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

BiggerPockets Real Estate 895 - BiggerNews: How Climate is Exploding Insurance, Building, and Investing Costs

A market-shifting real-estate trend is hiding in plain sight

 Nearly Two-Thirds of Home Listings Have Been Sitting on the Market Longer Than a Month As Buyers Grapple With High Costs

 U.S. States With No Income Tax Aren’t as Affordable as You Might Think

 Housing analyst who predicted the 2008 home price crash weighs in on the current market

Grab Henry’s New Book, “Real Estate Deal Maker”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(02:01) A Market-Shifting Trend 

(08:40) Average Days on Market Expand

(18:12) Downsides of No Income Tax

(27:53) 2008 Predictor’s New Forecast

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-239

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].

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One of the most reliable recession indicators, the “Sahm Rule,” just issued a “yellow flag” for the economy. Even now, with low unemployment, high spending, and overall economic growth, we aren’t protected from a recession or economic downturn. Will the US economy be able to dodge this recession, and will the Fed be fast enough to save us from falling into a state of high unemployment and meager economic growth?

The Washington Post’s Heather Long joins us to share the latest data on the labor market, unemployment rate, Fed rate cuts, and why this particular recession indicator is going off now. First, we talk about why there is so much positivity in the job market and why most people won’t notice the cracks starting to form. With tech jobs getting slashed and government jobs growing, are we moving in the right direction?

Heather also explains a strong recession indicator, the “Sahm Rule,” and why it’s throwing up a “yellow flag” warning even with the hot job market. Finally, we’ll touch on interest rates, whether the Fed will actually come through with a rate cut this year, and how fast future rate cuts could come after the first.

In This Episode We Cover

The unemployment-based recession indicator that’s throwing up “yellow flags”

Which industries are hiring and which are firing in 2024

What the “unemployment rate” really means, and why most people get this wrong

Immigration’s HUGE effect on unemployment and how it may be skewing the numbers

The Fed’s tricky decision to make and whether rate cuts could help this situation

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun!

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On The Market 168 - How to Prepare for a Recession in 2024

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Read More from Heather

Grab the Book, “Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(01:06) Good Time to Get a Job?

(04:50) Unemployment Rate Explained 

(07:59) Who's Losing Their Job?

(10:21) Recession "Yellow Flags" Emerge 

(16:56) Immigration's Huge Effect 

(21:05) Spending Still Going Strong?

(24:16) The Fed's Rate Cut Plans

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-238

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].

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