On The Market

The multifamily real estate market went from bad to worse. Interest rates are still at record highs, cap rates have somehow stayed compressed, rent growth looks bleak at best, and sellers refuse to budge on their prices. As a result, inexperienced operators are picking up so-called “deals” to shop around to their investors—and they could be walking into a massive financial trap without even knowing it.

If you want one hundred and one reasons NOT to buy multifamily right now, Brian Burke is here to help. But, if you want a counteracting force of optimism as to why you should pursue multifamily properties, Matt Faircloth can balance out this debate. These investors have owned and managed THOUSANDS of apartment units, but NEITHER of them has bought in over a year. Brian even went as far as selling most of his portfolio right before the commercial crash, a move many thought was far from wise at the time.

These two time-tested multifamily experts come on today to talk about the commercial real estate crash, the “chaos” that could ensue over the next year, why inexperienced syndicators are about to bite the dust, and why multifamily investing may not be the move to make in 2023. Think this is just a bunch of scare tactics to keep you away from good deals? Tune in to be surprised.

In This Episode We Cover:

The multifamily market crash and why sellers are STILL asking for all-time-high prices

Risky real estate debt and what you MUST know about commercial financing before you buy another property

What Brian and Matt MUST see in a property before they send in an offer

The “wave of foreclosures” that won’t come and deals being done in the shadows 

What to do RIGHT now as the market is in shambles to make the most money in the future

Cap rate compression and why these high multifamily prices can’t last

And So Much More!

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On The Market

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Meet Brian and Matt at BPCon!

Sign Up for the BiggerPockets Multifamily Bootcamp

The Multifamily “Bomb” is About to Blow, Here’s What You Need to Know

Books Mentioned in the Show

Raising Private Capital by Matt Faircloth

The Hands-Off Investor by Brian Burke

Connect with Brian

Brian's BiggerPockets Profile

Brian's Website

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Matt's BiggerPockets Profile

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Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-147

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A 2024 recession looks a lot more likely than it did just a few months ago. While many Americans were hoping for a “soft landing,” that might not be what we get as the economy hits a breaking point. With the government only temporarily saved from a shutdown, auto workers going on strike for cost of living adjustments, student loans resuming, and oil prices skyrocketing as production slows down, we may be forced to enter into a recession.

On the flipside, GDP remains strong, Americans are still spending, and unemployment is historically low. While this could quickly change, it begs the question: is the American consumer stronger than high interest rates, rising prices, and the threat of an unknown future economy? We brought on the full On the Market panel to give us their take on where we’re heading and which economic threats could bring down the economy.

We’ll get into the nitty-gritty of the recent UAW strike that is putting a bottleneck on transportation, the government shutdown that risks millions going unpaid, student loan resumption that could force Americans to forgo optional spending, and an exacerbated oil price increase that is hurting the everyday American (and especially Californians).

In This Episode We Cover:

Four economic factors that could force us into a 2024 recession 

NAR’s recent scandal and why Redfin has decided to finally cut ties

Student loan payment resumption and a massive cut in Americans' discretionary spending

The UAW strike that could hurt traditional car manufacturers even more

A looming government shutdown and the direct effects it has on the markets

Increased oil prices and why your deliveries, construction projects, and renovations could cost even more 

And So Much More!

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Is College Worth the Cost? w/Preston Cooper

Why the Fed is Steering Us Straight Towards the Next Great Recession

Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-146

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The housing market is now aggressively out of reach for first-time home buyers. Nearly sixty percent of homes for sale are unaffordable to the average American. What’s causing such a lack of affordability? High mortgage rates, meager supply, and baby boomers refusing to sell their single-family homes (seriously). These factors have created a housing market where “forced renter households” will become the norm…but not for long.

According to Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist at Windermere Real Estate, there’s at least some hope on the horizon. Mathew knows the solution to this almost unfathomable unaffordability issue, and it’s much simpler than most people think. In this episode, he talks about the primary driver of high home prices, the factors causing so many Americans to rent, and why we can’t repair this market using the same housing market “incentives” that worked in the past.

And, as someone who works regularly with large-scale investors, Mathew has some advice for those still trying to invest in a market where profits seem improbable. When will mortgage rates head down? How long will unaffordability last? And what’s the solution Matthew thinks will solve it all? We’ll get into all that in this episode!

In This Episode We Cover:

The SINGLE factor that’s causing so much unaffordability in the housing market

Home price updates and a surprising statistic about homes for sale 

Mortgage rate predictions and whether or not we’ll see them fall next year

“Forced renter household” formation and whether America will become a renter nation

Crucial advice for ANYONE who’s buying real estate in 2023 (and if you should wait)

And So Much More!

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Housing is Unaffordable, But Could It Actually Get Worse?

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Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-145

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If you want to know how to make millions of dollars in real estate, skip the rental properties, renovations, and rehabs and go straight for this type of “land investing.” Our own Kathy Fettke is using this type of deal to make MILLIONS of dollars without building a single home or managing ANY tenants. This is all from one piece of land, where Kathy simply needs to put down just under five percent of the total purchase price, and in a few years, she’ll walk away with millions in profits. What type of deal is she doing, and how can you do it too? 

We’re back with another deal show as we dive deep into three real estate deals that our expert guests have on their hands. First, Henry will show off a simple house flip that will net him thirteen times his money when he sells. Then, Kathy will uncover the rarely talked about but unbelievably lucrative type of land investing that can make you millions. Finally, James hits on a “dense” flip/development deal that will turn one home into many and give his team almost half a million dollars in profit!

If you want to submit your deal for a future show, post it on the On the Market forums where you can get other investor takes!

In This Episode We Cover:

The type of land investing that can make you MILLIONS in just a few years

Cosmetic flips and why now may be a low-risk time to get in the market 

Why “dense” zoning can make you MUCH more money on your next investment

“Deferred interest” and how to cut down on high holding costs

Why the average age of a home seller in 2023 is NOT what you’d expect 

And So Much More!

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Share Your Deal on the “On the Market” Forum

Read More Home Buyer and Housing Market Stats

Dealing Dirt: Is Raw Land the Most Underrated Asset of 2023?

Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-144

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The hotel vs. Airbnb battle may have just completely flipped. Post-pandemic, it seemed as if short-term rentals were the only places worth staying when traveling. Having a house with multiple beds, a kitchen, a private yard, and parking was considered too good for hotels to compete with. But, as the world reopened, travelers got tired of cleaning up after themselves and taking out the trash, and hotels began to claw back market share.

With the idea of a short-term rental “collapse” constantly being pushed throughout mainstream media, we brought on AirDNA’s Jamie Lane to give us the facts about how the hotel vs. Airbnb battle is going. Jamie walks us through some surprising statistics about short-term rental occupancy, why things are starting to change in a post-pandemic world, the real estate markets seeing the worst (and best) performance, and how hotels are faring.

For those who have seen their short-term rental markets start to struggle with so much supply and not enough demand, Jamie has some insider-only tips on finding smaller markets where you can still make a decent profit and how owning an international vacation rental may be your best bet as Americans leave the road-tripping and domestic flights behind.

In This Episode We Cover:

The short-term rental “collapse” and why occupancy is starting to fall

The markets experiencing “normalization” as domestic travel becomes less popular

Must-have short-term rental amenities that can almost guarantee you bookings

Hotels vs. hosts and why Airbnb is losing market share to free buffet breakfasts

Short-term rental regulations and how bans will impact hosts in every real estate market

And So Much More!

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#Airbnbust: The Fall Of Short-Term Rentals

Hosts vs. Hotels: Is There Still Room in The Short-Term Rental Market?

Has the Short-Term Rental Goldmine Run Dry? w/Jamie Lane

Access Up-to-Date Short-Term Rental Data with AirDNA

Connect with Jamie:

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Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-143

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House flipping profits are off the charts, so why are so many house flippers leaving the market? Top flippers like James Dainard have seen their profits almost double, EVEN with today’s high interest rates. Wouldn’t now be the perfect time to take on more flips than ever? The experts say “no.” In fact, many of them have stepped away from flipping entirely, worried that the risk FAR outweighs the reward.

To give us a more rounded view of this real estate market are Jessie Rodriguez and “I hate real estate but love money” investor Tarl Yarber. Jessie and Tarl have done HUNDREDS of flips throughout the past decade, but now, they’re doing fewer flips than ever before. With high holding costs, an uncertain economic future, and a greater risk of failure, now might not be the best time to start your flipping empire.

But if you have experience, money, or time, you could make some serious returns if you are willing to take the risk. James, Jessie, and Tarl talk about what they’re looking for in today’s market, how to instantly lower your cost of labor on any flip, why so many expert flippers are leaving the business, and why you should “dollar-cost average” in real estate investing.

In This Episode We Cover:

The state of house flipping in 2023 and whether or not now is the time to jump in

Interest rates, holding costs, and how much you can expect money to cost

Why “quick flips” are FAR safer now than extensive, heavy rehab house flips

Why Tarl quit flipping and the signs he’s waiting for BEFORE he gets back into the game

Labor costs and how Jessie INSTANTLY cut down his rehab budget 

Dollar-cost averaging in real estate and whether or not it’s a smart move for rookies

And So Much More!

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Unbelievable Returns from Flipping This New Type of Real Estate w/Jessie Rodriguez

Flipping Houses: How to Get Started and Everything You Should Know

Connect with Jesse:

Jesse's Instagram

Connect with Tarl:

Tarl's BiggerPockets Profile

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Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-142

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The “Doom Loop” could cause banks, businesses, and commercial real estate to crash. With real estate valuations down, property owners begin to default, and credit tightens, causing the same cycle to repeat itself again and again, pulling banks and balance sheets down until we reach a bottom. But is this “Doom Loop” scenario just feeding the fear of a housing market crash, or are we months away from this becoming our new reality?

We asked Richard Barkham, Global Chief Economist of CBRE, his take on what could cause a “Doom Loop” and what we should be prepared for. Richard’s team handles some of the planet’s most comprehensive commercial real estate data. When the masses run away in fear, Richard’s team sees opportunity, and if you listen to today’s episode, you’ll know exactly where the prices are too low to pass on.

Richard gives his economic forecast for the next year, when the US could enter a recession, how high unemployment could get, and where commercial real estate prices are heading. While some commercial real estate sectors are facing dramatic price declines, others are looking surprisingly strong. But with a weaker economy and fear of a “Doom Loop” taking hold, are everyday investors safe from this potential economic catastrophe?

In This Episode We Cover:

he real estate “Doom Loop” explained and what could cause this chain reaction to tank asset prices

The “global slowdown” and recession predictions for 2023 and 2024

The weakest and strongest sectors of commercial real estate (and which ones are underpriced)

Cap rate updates and what will finally cause prices to improve again

Best buying opportunities in 2023 and assets with rising rents and declining prices

Unemployment, inflation, deflation, and what we can expect over the next year

And So Much More!

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The Biggest Crash Imaginable is Coming For Commercial Assets

Grab CBRE’s “Midyear Global Real Estate Market Outlook 2023”

Books Mentioned in the Show

Real Estate by the Numbers by Dave Meyer

Connect with Richard:

Richard's LinkedIn

Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-141

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Mortgage rates are ravaging the real estate market, but Warren Buffett is bullish on housing. With interest rates at twenty-year highs, almost any house is unaffordable to the everyday home buyer. And, with rising insurance costs, commercial real estate investors face HUGE policy hikes that are eating away at any leftover cash flow. But is this just the storm before the calm—have the price hikes peaked, and could we be in store for a more affordable market?

All the doom and gloom can seem scary; thankfully, Dave Meyer, James Dainard, and Kathy Fettke have brought their financial flashlights to make things a bit brighter. In today’s correspondents show, we’re talking about Warren Buffett’s latest move to invest in some of today’s top home builders and why “affordable” housing may be where the REAL money is made in real estate.

Besides Buffett, we’ll also touch on the growing insurance crisis across the United States, who it’s impacting the most, and why Kathy’s latest bill jumped 600% (c’mon, Kathy). Could this insurance squeeze make the commercial real estate crash even more lucrative for buyers? Lastly, we’re talking about one of the most underground topics of 2023—mortgage rates. They’re climbing fast, but this could be a sign of lower rates to come!

In This Episode We Cover:

Why the world’s greatest stock investor is putting his money into residential real estate

The ongoing inventory crisis and why we might be in a “2012” market in 2023

The insurance “squeeze” forcing commercial real estate investors out of their properties

How to lower your insurance costs with simple, sustainable home improvements

A mortgage rate update and crossing into the highest rates of the past two decades

Rental property HELOCs and the best lenders to ask for one

And So Much More!

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Warren Buffett

Insurance

Mortgage Rates

Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-140

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The Fed has put the American economy under extreme pressure to lower inflation. Mortgage rates are now at twenty-year highs, job openings are starting to fall, “cautious consumers” return, and a 2024 recession is still in the cards. Everything the Fed wanted is finally happening…but it’s not happening fast enough. Can anything solve the inflation we’re up against?

Few know the Fed as well as Nick Timiraos, economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal. Nick has been tracking the Fed’s moves for years and has been our go-to correspondent on what Fed chair Jerome Powell could be announcing next. With inflation finally taking a hit and the economy slowing down, progress is finally being made. But this doesn’t mean that we’re out of the woods yet.

The Fed knows the job isn’t finished yet and is willing to push the American economy to extremes to get there. In this episode, we talk to Nick about the Fed’s next moves, mortgage rate predictions, how the housing market could reignite, recession forecasts, and the “immaculate disinflation” that could save our economy. 

In This Episode We Cover:

Why the Fed is keeping mortgage rates high even as we see lower inflation 

Consumer spending and why Americans are being more “cautious” with their money 

Credit tightening and risks for businesses if interest rates don’t decline 

Why job openings are falling and what this means for unemployment

2024 recession risks and what would have to happen for a “soft landing” to actualize 

And So Much More!

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The Fed’s Plan for Future Interest Rates

Can the Fed Dodge a Recession in 2023?

The Fed’s Next Move and When Rates Will Drop

Connect with Nick:

Nick's Twitter

Nick's Website

Nick on WSJ

Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-139

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We’re in the thick of a housing crisis. Buyers are waiting to pounce on properties, but there aren’t any houses to buy. Mortgage rates are high, and prices have risen or stayed flat in most parts of the country. So, where do first-time home buyers turn when there’s nowhere else to go? New construction homes! But it’s not just regular home buyers bidding on new construction. Investors are creating more competition as the existing home market slowly trickles out inventory.

Nikolas Scoolis’ team at Zonda has been distributing some of the most comprehensive new construction data for the 2023 housing market, and he’s got some good news to share. With new construction home sales sharply rising over the past year, builders are getting bullish, and home buyers are FINALLY getting their hands on some inventory. But, with so many home builders chasing luxury profits, are affordable houses even worth building? And while new homes bring some relief to the inventory crisis we’re facing, it may not be enough to balance supply and demand.

Nikolas will get into new construction market updates, why new home sales are exploding, who’s buying, and the BIG incentives builders are promising buyers.

In This Episode We Cover:

The housing inventory crisis and if new homes will match demand

Affordable housing and whether or not small square footage homes will come on the market

Baby boomer investors vs. first-time home buyers and the fight for inventory

Rate buydowns, free upgrades, and other incentives home builders are still offering

Recovering markets that are seeing strength return after HUGE price drops 

And So Much More!

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Who’s Keeping the Housing Market Moving? Baby Boomers

Read Zonda’s New Home Market Update

Bullish Homebuilders, Affordable Housing, and Why Home Prices WON’T Move

Connect with Nikolas:

Nikolas' LinkedIn

Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-138

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