On the Middle East with Amberin Zaman

Russia's national security chief, Sergei Shoigu, traveled to Tehran this week where he met with Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeskhian. Coming on the heels of the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil, Shoigu's visit prompted a flurry of speculation about the Kremlin's intentions. Iran has vowed revenge for the attack which it has blamed on Israel. Hanna Notte, head of the Eurasia program at the James Martin Center for Nuclear Non Proliferation Studies, unpacks the stakes. 

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Hamidreza Azizi is a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He tells Al-Monitor that Iran's proxies in Yemen, Iraq and Syria will likely carry out a coordinated campaign to avenge Haniyeh's death and that the chances of a ceasefire in Gaza have been dealt a crippling blow. The risk of a full-blown regional conflict is rising.

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Ezgi Basaran is a Turkish journalist turned academic who has written a new book examining the outsize influence of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party over Tunisia's Islamist Ennahda party and Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood party. While both have suffered huge setbacks, Basaran argues they will re-emerge and that the pursuit of power will trump ideology.

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The election victory of heart surgeon Masoud Pezeshkian has aroused hopes and doubts in Iran and beyond. He is a Reformist who says he will be more lenient towards women and will seek to reduce tensions with the West. Yet, his record is spotty. While defying hawkish clerics on some critical occasions, he has stood up for them on others. As with all else in Iran, deciphering the real Pezeshkian is no easy task, says Iranian academic Arash Azizi. 

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Washington is piling pressure on Azerbaijan to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan that would allow Turkey to normalize its relations with Armenia. But Azerbaijan is resisting calls to finalize a draft peace agreement and wants further concessions from Armenia. Benjamin Poghosyan, a senior research fellow at the ARPI think tank in Yerevan, explains why.

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Iran is due to hold presidential elections on June 28 that were precipitated by the death in May in a helicopter crash of former President Ebrahim Raisi. Although real power is held by the country's supreme leader, presidents can make a difference in the daily lives of Iranians and even in foreign policy should the supreme leader agree. The candidacy of a Western-friendly heart surgeon with popular appeal is giving hope that positive changes might be in store.

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As the Gaza conflict enters its eighth month, Iran stands out as the one country that has succeeded in projecting further as a result. 

Israel is more vulnerable than it’s ever been and the United States must engage more smartly in the Middle East to protect its interests, argues Steven Cook, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of “The End of Ambition: America’s Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East.”

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The Kurdish-led administration in northeast Syria is planning to hold landmark local elections in the majority Kurdish and Arab areas under its control. Syrian-Kurdish leader Saleh Muslim says "radical democracy" will be in play as people elect their leaders at every level of local governance, with a man and a woman selected for each post.

Turkey has threatened to prevent the elections on the grounds they pose a threat to its national security. The Biden administration has advised against the polls, saying the conditions for conducting them are not ripe.

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Kristin Diwan, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, unpacks Kuwait's dramatic turn last week when the country's ruling Emir suspended the parliament and parts of the constitution.

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Greek academic Ioannis Grigoriadis believes that no major breakthroughs should be expected during Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis' visit. Keeping the channels of communication open and building on the positive agenda promoted by both sides is, however, crucial to averting conflict, notably over Cyprus.

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