American forces in Northern Syria have begun a “deliberate withdrawal” as Turkish-backed forces continue to deepen their invasion of areas held by the U.S. partner force, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Lieutenant General Michael Nagata (US Army, retired), discusses the immediate and long-term implications of this retreat from Syria. LTG Nagata retired as the Director of strategy at the National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) after a long career in special operations.

Turkey has initiated a military operation into a part of Northern Syria controlled by Syrian Kurdish-led forces. The operation follows a U.S. decision to withdraw from the immediate area controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – the primary Syria-based U.S. partner in the campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). As Turkish forces move across the border and the SDF responds, ISW’s Syria expert John Dunford explains the context, key dynamics shaping the battle, and the effects on the counter-ISIS campaign. 

The Iraqi prime minister’s concessions to protesters reflects one aspect of the ongoing crisis, but it is only part of the story unfolding. There remains a fierce and ongoing competition for the future of Iraq. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella is joined by the Critical Threats Project’s Iran Analyst Nicholas Carl to discuss the Iraqi government’s recent actions, what the information environment tells us about the situation on the ground, and how the Iranian regime is positioning its proxies as it vies for greater control.

Turkey is about to invade Northeastern Syria with U.S. permission despite previous American security guarantees to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The U.S. has not yet announced a full withdrawal from Syria but U.S. forces pulled back from the border. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Syria expert John Dunford will discuss what options the SDF has and how other actors, including ISIS and Iran, are prepared to exploit the possible chaos to follow.

The crisis in Iraq continues to escalate. Multiple reports of assassinations and other targeting killings of activists and demonstrators reflect an attempt to suppress the protests through intimidation, likely by Iran’s proxies. Leading Shia political figure Muqtada al Sadr called for the dissolution of the government and a new election in an attempt to oust the sitting Prime Minister, who has failed to address the crisis. A parliament session is reportedly scheduled for October 5th. It remains unclear whether a reshuffle in the political leadership in Baghdad would ameliorate protest demands, however. ISW’s Iraq expert Samantha Leathley joins Jennifer Cafarella to discuss developments on the ground and what ISW is watching for next. Crisis Brief is a special edition of the Overwatch series intended to provide timely updates on unfolding national security crises. 

This update addresses the political dynamics that have lead to recent mass protests against the Iraqi government. ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella zooms out to discuss how key actors, domestic political competition, and Iranian influence over the last several years  has shaped the current crisis. Crisis Brief is a special edition of the Overwatch series intended to provide timely updates on unfolding national security crises.

Iraqi protesters have defied a government curfew in Baghdad, triggering renewed clashes with security forces. The death toll is now at 19 with hundreds wounded. The internet remains severed as the Iraqi government tries to disrupt the protest momentum and minimize reports of civilian casualties. ISW Research Directer Jennifer Cafarella and CTP Iran Analyst Nicholas Carl discuss what has transpired in the last 12 hours and what to watch for next. 

A major crisis is unfolding in Iraq. Protests against the Iraqi government have spread to 11 predominantly Shi'a provinces and become violent. Government forces have used live ammunition against protestors in multiple provinces and are fighting with protestors to secure the Baghdad airport. ISW is providing an update on the situation as of 8pm this evening and outlining the possible trajectories for further escalation. 

In this episode of Overwatch, Maseh Zarif talks with his ISW colleagues Nataliya Bugayova and Darina Regio about what Russia is up to in Africa. They discuss Russia’s coordinated campaign to gain economic and political influence, and its attempt to create opportunities for expanding its military presence on the continent. Nataliya and Darina also put this campaign in the context of U.S. interests, identifying why the United States should be concerned and what to look for in the coming months.