'Perspectives' by Escala

In this episode of The Fund Managers, Escala Partners CIO Tracey McNaughton interviews Brad Kinkelaar, Portfolio Manager of the Barrow Hanley Global Investors Share Fund. Their conversation explores Barrow Hanley's unique approach to investing and their focus on capital preservation and deep value. We hope you enjoy the discussion.

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, presents the case for why this rally in the US equity market could go further, at least in the near term. For disciplined investors, however, the advice from Charlie Munger should be heeded: "The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting".

(0:58) - It seems the bear market is officially over and a new bull market has begun.

(2:42) - You have a sell signal on the US market for valuation reasons but a buy signal on the basis of sentiment and momentum.

(4:45) - Can a case be made for why equities could push higher from here?

(6:40) - What could that catalyst be?

(8:51) - Where do you and the team sit?

(11:10) - What about inflation? Would a faster decline in inflation also be a catalyst?

(13:08) - You talked earlier about evidence that higher interest rates are starting to bite into activity globally.

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, shares her views on why Japanese equities are so unique and why they are fast becoming so loved. Fund managers remain conservatively positioned except for AI-related technology stocks and the US Government is getting as close as it possibly can to running out of money.

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, shares her views on the unhealthy state of the US equity market and why this should be of concern for investors. Reflecting this, institutional investors are currently the most risk averse since 2009 preferring to allocate to money market funds and bonds. Adding to the risk aversion is uncertainty over the US debt ceiling which once again threatens to send the US government into default next month.

(0:57) - Tracey, you have been talking to us recently about how unhealthy this US equity market is. Can you explain what you mean by that and what are the implications for investors?

(2:41) - This is not just the S&P500. What role is AI playing in all of this?

(5:43) - Institutional investors are staying away from this market, where are they investing?

(8:54) - Inflation or recession, which concern is driving the market the most?

(12:25) - We had the Australian Federal Budget released last night. The government's finances have improved significantly thanks to higher commodity prices, a strong labour market and strong population growth.

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, shares her views on the global housing supply shortage, its impact on the rental market and inflation and why the US housing market is so weirdly different to that in Australia or the UK. She also provides an update on the current earnings season in the US and why our emerging markets managers describe Abu Dhabi as "on fire".

(0:47) - Housing has been a big topic in Australia recently with a number of large builders going into administration

(5:41) - Most mortgages in Australia are variable so when the Reserve Bank raises interest rates, we feel it almost immediately.

(6:43) - Seems like most of the problem is on the supply side in the housing market.

(8:13) - Banking turmoil in the US appears to have eased. Any lasting implications?

(11:28) - The CIO team are currently in the middle of heat week. What are you hearing from your international equity managers?

(13:15) - Earnings season in the US has begun, what are some of the key themes coming out?

In this episode, Investment Analyst, Darragh Kennelly talks to Hubert Aarts and Shahbano Soomro of Impax Asset Management about the US Inflation Reduction Act. They explore the key areas that the Bill focuses on and discuss its implications for companies across various industries.

In this episode of The Fund Managers, Escala Investment Analyst David Bruty talks to Rob Tucker, Portfolio Manager of the Chester High Conviction Fund. Rob explains Chester's differentiated approach to portfolio construction, why he maintains an allocation to gold equities through the investment cycle and how a structurally higher inflation environment has shaped Chester's current portfolio.

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, shares her views on the tremors in the banking industry and its spread to Europe from the US. She discusses how the financial system came within a day of experiencing a Lehman moment that would have turned the tremor into a full-blown quake. The lessons learnt 15 years ago, have never been more important.

(0:50) - It was another big couple of weeks in financial markets, this time the focus of attention shifted the Europe where the fate of Credit Suisse.

(2:30) - Is there anything we can take away from all of this. Lessons learnt or lessons we were reminded of?

(7:00) - How credible are the comparisons that are being made between what is happening today and what happened in 2008?

(8:52) - European markets fell again on Friday. In particular, the share price for Germany's largest bank, Deutsche Bank, came under fire. Could this crisis spread further?

(11:02) - Speaking of financial conditions, the Federal Reserve opted to tighten financial conditions itself last week by lifting interest rates for a ninth time.

(12:35) - What does this mean for the Reserve Bank of Australia?

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, shares her views on the collapse in Silicon Valley Bank, its causes and what it means for financial markets, monetary policy and investors and why Australian equities are a more attractive option relative to international equities.

(1:02) - Let's jump straight into the topic of the past 5 days and that is the collapse in Silicon Valley Bank or SVB. We had an all teams meeting this morning where you reminded us that this didn't come out of nowhere.

(2:34) - A lot has been spoken about already with regard to SVB but at a high level, what was the trigger that bought us to this point?

(4:15) - There is a lot of concern in the market that what happened with SVB could happen with other banks. What is your view on the potential for contagion that would affect other companies?

(9:29) - So what are some of the market implications that come out of this?

(13:23) - What are the implications for Australia?

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, shares her views on how the structure of the labour market has changed in the past three years and how this is sending mixed signals to the market. Inflation is proving to be hard to kill and this has implications for where central banks go next with interest rates.

(0:54) - The economic data out of the US are coming in stronger than expected. In particular, the labour market seems to be giving mixed signals.

(5:37) - Its not quite a James Bond storyline but inflation is proving to be a little hard to kill.

(12:37) - New terms are popping up all the time in finance and economics circles, you mentioned immaculate disinflation before.

(15:09) - China re-opening is here and the flow-on effects are being felt particularly in the tourism sector so far.