'Perspectives' by Escala

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, discusses the results coming out of the US earnings reporting season and why Facebook and Microsoft are in and Tesla and Apple are out of favour – this despite Apple having a cash pile equivalent in size to the Hungarian economy.

(0:54) Tracey, we are halfway through reporting season in the US and it is looking good so far.

(2:23) So, Apple has the equivalent of the Hungarian economy sitting in its cash account.

(5:43) It's not all tech though, is it? Other, more industrial companies are also reporting solid earnings?

(7:34) US regional banks are back in the headlines. What is going on there now?

(13:37) The US Federal Reserve met last week. It was interesting, particularly when considered with the latest employment report out of the US.

(16:01) While we are on the topic of central banks, Australia's Reserve Bank has begun a new era following recommendations that came out of the review last year.

(17:25) Our independent member of our Investment Committee Gerard Minack says the market is being too sanguine about the number of rate cuts coming for Australia. Do you agree?

(19:29) Before we go, you have just wrapped up heat week with your international equities managers. If there is one takeaway, what would it be?

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, discusses how events of 2023 give context to what is likely for 2024. And, how should investors respond to the heightened geopolitical risks that are so evident in this "war economy"?

(0:52) Welcome to the first podcast for the year. It seems fitting Tracey that we begin with your thoughts on the year that was.

(7:48) Tracey you and the team have just released the fifth edition of our annual outlook publication, Agenda, what are some of the key takeaways?

(9:50) This is another theme in our Agenda, the rise in defence spending in many countries around the world.

(11:45) Can you tell us about supply chain security, how does that feature as a theme?

(14:58) What about your views more generally?

(16:10) 2023 was the year of the Magnificent 7 – Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google, Telsa, Nvidia and Microsoft. What is the outlook for equities this year?

In this episode, Investment Analyst, Darragh Kennelly, talks to Mike Harut and James Tsinidis of Munro Partners to discuss the main takeaways from the recent climate change conference in Dubai. They also discuss the outlook for companies focused on the many subsectors of climate change for the year ahead and get insights from James' recent trip to visit portfolio companies in the US.

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, and advisor Ed Brooke are in conversation with Gerard Minack, independent member of the Escala investment committee.

In this episode of The Fund Managers, CIO Investment Analyst, Darragh Kennelly, speaks to Seyonne Kang to learn more about Stepstone's Venture Capital platform and discuss the current landscape in VC markets and specifically look at secondary market opportunities for investors.

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, discusses some of the investment themes that will drive markets in 2024 including whether the Magnificent 7 can continue to be magnificent.

(0:52) The holiday and Santa Rally season is upon us, it seems. The stock market is once again priced for perfection. What is your advice to investors at this time of year?

(3:37) What are some investment themes to look out for in 2024? Some equity analysts are calling for 2024 to be a "stock picker's paradise." Do you agree?

(9:25) And then there is the whole AI safety issue that has been elevated in the wake of Sam Altman returning as CEO of OpenAI after being fired just four days before by the OpenAI board.

(11:25) One of the major topics of discussion at our Investment Committee meeting just yesterday was the outlook for Australian equities. We have been neutral Australian equities all year. Has that view changed?

(14:27) And speed in bringing down inflation is important, isn't it?

(15:29) Tracey, you and the CIO team are about to go into your annual offsite meeting. On the agenda, as always, is a decision audit. Can you explain what that means and why you do it?

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, discusses the implications of investing in a world where governments and their debt burdens are getting bigger at the same time as consumer waistbands are getting smaller.

(0:50) Interest rate cut expectations are being priced back into the market for 2024 again. Despite this, the market was put back in its place last week by Fed Chair Jay Powell.

(2:53) We have been talking a lot about fiscal policy recently in our meetings. Governments everywhere seem to be in a spending mood. This will act like a cross current, won't it – pushing against the central bank attempts to slow growth to rein in inflation.

(6:02) You have called this a fiscal policy renaissance. For the first time in several decades, fiscal policy is taking a lead role in driving growth in the economy. What are some of the investment implications of this?

(8:09) The investment implication that comes from this is the attractiveness of investing in floating rate bonds.

(10:32) So, what is the catalyst – is it valuation or is it something more?

(12:17) Earnings season in the US is almost over. Were there any surprises?

(15:29) We can't finish, Tracey, without talking about the latest mega trend sweeping the investment world – GLP1's. What are GLP1s and why are they having such an impact?

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, talks about the economic conditions that are necessary (though maybe not sufficient) for geopolitical stability to return to the global economy.

(0:54) Tracey, lets start by talking about prices. Not just any price. More than anything, financial markets over the September quarter were driven by the most important price in the global economy. It's not the price of oil though, is it?

(6:19) We received a question from a client recently: We are now operating in a world where there are two major wars happening at the same time as global co-operation is being tested. What will it take for geopolitical stability to return?

(11:38) Tracey, you mention their populist politics being associated with inflation and inequality. Can you go into that a bit deeper?

(12:01) I'm guessing a very long time.

In this episode, Escala Partners Investment Analyst, David Bruty, and CIO, Tracey McNaughton, talk to Rory Green from TS Lombard about China and artificial intelligence. This presentation will discuss questions such as what are the factors that will govern the development path of AI in China? How will the CCP control AI and its impact on society without dampening innovation and progress?

Toby Walsh is a professor and the Chief Scientist at UNSW's new AI Institute and has spent the past 40 years researching artificial intelligence. He is the author of several books on AI including "2062: The world that AI made". This presentation will discuss questions such as can we trust AI or will it increasingly deceive us? How can we ensure AI is harnessed as a force for good rather than for nefarious ends?

This is Part 2 of our two-part podcast. Here we will be talking with Toby about the worlds oldest profession (it is not what you think), autonomous vehicles, how parking stations and insurance will be a thing of the past and why the CEO of Volvo Australia called Toby on his way to an interview with ABC.

(1:55) - Just staying with that question of autonomy, but now moving to self driving cars. They talk about the dangers of self driving cars - at times I wish there were some artificial intelligence in the car.

(5:18) - How do we manage the 1%? In terms of the question around accountability, who do you blame?

(7:50) - I read somewhere that you were in a taxi on your way to an interview and you got a call from the CEO of Volvo.

(10:18) - When will we see the first legal case of car vs maker? Will we see an increase in lawsuits?

(11:22) – How do you think cities are going to change? Are cities going to become greener?

(15:21) – What timeframe are you talking in terms of autonomous vehicles? Is it already on the road in San Francisco?

(17:33) – What about health data? The whole insurance model works on the basis that we pool our risks. Does the whole insurance model begin to break down?

(22:06) – Wouldn't you rather know the data so that you can then address it and alleviate it? Could having the data lead to beneficial side effects?

(24:07) – It's been estimated that it would take an internet user something like 76 working days per year just to read all the things they've agreed to online.

(25:00) – One of the things I was most surprised in the book was the relationship you talk about between Big Tech and Big Oil.

(27:12) – Are you an optimist about what the future holds?