'Perspectives' by Escala

This week Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, discusses the implications of the US presidential election including the need for governments to open their wallets even more – 'spend baby spend'.

(0:56) The US election result is in. Probably the biggest surprise was how convincing a win for Trump it was.

(3:07) The market reaction to the election result was pretty dramatic. Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high and DOGEcoin is up 150% since Elon Musk was named to help lead the new Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE for short.

(7:19) That is a long list of winners. Where are the losers under a Trump administration?

(8:47) During his term, Biden passed a number of pieces of legislation that we have talked a lot about on this podcast – the Inflation Reduction Act, the Chips Act and the Infrastructure Bill. All three were worth $1.6 trillion. What are the chances of Trump repealing some of this?

(10:10) What does the US election mean for the Australian economy?

(11:54) Another election to take place next year will be in Germany. The German government effectively collapsed on the day of the Trump election.

(14:14) How will a Trump presidency affect monetary policy?

(16:34) There has been a lot of talk about households facing an affordability crisis. What about governments? Governments everywhere it seems are sinking deeper and deeper into debt.

This week Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, discusses the upcoming US presidential election, why the polls are often wrong, the bi-partisan support for nuclear energy, and why the bond and equity markets disagree on what a Trump presidency could mean.

(0:57) Tracey, we are devoting this entire podcast to the US election given its importance. It's been quite a journey so far – two assassination attempts, the last minute withdrawal of Biden, the late entry by Harris. So far though, neither candidate has been able to land a knockout punch.

(2:54) What are your thoughts on the outcome on November 5? What are the polls saying?

(6:26) Why are the polls so often poor predictors of the outcome?

(8:20) We have had quite a bit of volatility recently in markets. How are investors positioned for the election?

(9:42) The betting market you are referring to there I take it is Polymarket?

(12:04) On the issue of energy, the topic of nuclear power has come up again recently.

(13:37) Given its importance but also controversy, how do each of the presidential candidates stand on nuclear?

(14:58) Another issue is trade restrictions. You have talked in the past about the Biden Administration being more America first than any other administration before it. Will Harris continue that legacy?

In this episode, Escala Partners Investment Analyst Stephen Dickinson talks to Andrew Ballantyne, Head of Australasia Research for JLL. Andrew discusses how JLL is currently viewing the office sector, some of the underlying structural drivers in the sector and the outlook ahead.

This week Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, discusses how the US central bank overdelivered on interest rate cuts last week and why the Reserve Bank in Australia is under-delivering.

(0:54) The Fed over-delivered in its first rate cut in four years lowering interest rates by half a percent last week. Such a sizeable rate cut is normally associated with a crisis.

(4:27) It's not just the US. Europe also cut rates this month.

(5:33) We had the Reserve Bank meeting today. Despite the Greens urging otherwise, they decided to keep interest rates unchanged at the 12-year high of 4.35%.

(7:47) Speaking of China, the economy received some much needed support from policy makers today but will it be sufficient do you think?

(12:16) Your mention of Japan is interesting there. Japanese companies are pulling back on spending in China.

(14:17) We are getting a lot of questions from clients on the US debt situation and just where and how it ends. A related question - is there any relationship between rapidly rising government debt and gold prices?

(17:27) The countdown to the US election is on – we are now 43 days out. How is the market positioning?

This week Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, discusses the high price Australians are paying to the government for managing our economy and why we should probably be asking for a refund.

(0:52) August has been a very volatile month. The start of September looks like it will be more of the same. How are you and the CIO team navigating these markets?

(4:22) Do you expect this volatility to continue?

(6:04) Another question that came up recently at a client lunch, Tracey, was around population growth. If declining population in places like China and Japan is bad, why isn't growing population in Australia good?

(9:39) The other factor weighing on Australia is China. Did you see any evidence of this impact in the last GDP report released on Wednesday?

(11:17) Earnings reporting season has just finished in Australia. Is this softer picture for Australia being reflected in company bottom lines?

(12:59) How weak is China?

(15:24) You saw Howard Marks in person last week – did you get any investment tips?

Loose on the bars. That is what Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, is telling clients as they navigate the recent bout of financial market volatility. And every revolution leaves past corporate champions behind. Who will be left behind in the AI revolution?

(0:56) Lets talk about the volatility in markets. How did we come to witness the largest 2-day fall in Japanese equities in history?

(5:47) This is a reminder of how volatile public markets can be. Is this why we are seeing a rise in private market activity?

(8:54) Tracey let's move onto the "catastrophic" earnings report from Intel a few weeks ago. Why is this so significant?

(13:39) We need to spend some time talking about Australia today because it looks like we are on a slightly different path to the US.

(16:10) The other factor important for Australia is what is happening in China. The news is not good there either.

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, looks at what is driving recent market volatility - an election correction; a tech-check; or just a Fed-ache. The countdown clock has begun - what are the key battleground states in the US election?

(0:52) Market volatility has picked up in the past few weeks, particularly since the July 11 release of the US inflation report.

(5:42) Earnings season has begun in the US as you say. We are about halfway though. What are some of the themes you are picking up on so far?

(12:21) This is a busy week for the market. What else have we got coming up?

(15:52) Given all of the volatility, what are you telling clients?

(19:02) The US Election is still 97 days away. What do you think is going to happen between now and then?

In this episode of The Fund Managers, Escala Investment Analyst, David Bruty, interviews Chris Prunty, Portfolio Manager of the QVG Opportunities Fund. Chris discusses the fund's recent participation in the highly-publicised initial public offering (IPO) of Guzman Y Gomez and the attractive characteristics of the company that provide the foundation for a strong runway of growth. The pair also discuss the outlook for small caps here in Australia following a recent rotation in the US that has been driven by the rising expectation of an easing in policy by the Fed.

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, talks about the payoff with artificial intelligence and whether the dizzying amounts being spent on semiconductors and infrastructure will be worth it. And what role do private markets play in finding genuine use cases of AI?

(0:54) Well Tracey the big news in the past few days has been the shocking assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. It's still early but what, if any, are the consequences?

(3:28) If we did get a Trump win, what would be the impact on markets?

(8:13) The other big event we had last week was the release of lower-than-expected inflation data out of the US. It now looks like we are going to get a rate cut sooner than expected.

(11:21) Just on AI and the impact it is having on some parts of the equity market. Where do you think we are in terms of a peak? Are you in the camp of the optimists?

(16:55) The other feature of the market that is different today compared to the late 1990s TMT boom is the prevalence of private equity. What role is private equity playing in the AI boom?

In this episode, Investment Analyst Darragh Kennelly, talks to Jess Cairns of Alphinity Investment Management and Qinghua Lu of CSIRO to discuss their recently released research report on the implications of artificial intelligence use by companies and investors. They outline the framework for investors to use when assessing key threats and opportunities of AI usage and highlight some interesting responsible AI case studies of large multinationals.