In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, talks about riding the cycle – physically and metaphorically. In a world where there are so many distractions vying for investors' attention, how can investors "tape up their mirrors"?

(0:57) Tracey, before we start, our clients have been asking for an update on your riding. You have been doing some training, I hear, on a racetrack.

(3:35) So let's go there. The obvious distraction for investors at the moment is geopolitical risk. How are you guarding against that?

(8:28) What is the data telling you at the moment?

(9:48) Okay, so the risk that the US is going into recession has declined significantly, but what about earnings? We are about halfway through US earnings season. Are we at risk of an earnings recession?

(12:36) We need to talk about AI Tracey. Let's talk about Apple. Apple continues to move extremely quietly in the AI world – we are really not hearing too much from them. An interesting feature of Apple's last earnings call was the absence of any mention of artificial intelligence.

(16:43) Turning to Australia, we had a troubling inflation report last week. It told a similar story that we are hearing in other parts of the world, that service sector inflation remains sticky. Does this change your view on Australian equities?

In this episode, Investment Analyst Darragh Kennelly, talks to Nick Edgerton of Stewart Investors to discuss a key engagement initiative Stewart Investors have worked on since 2020 when they identified serious human rights risk that is often overlooked. Conflict minerals are vital materials for the semiconductor industry and are powering the green transition. The pair finally discuss recent examples of sustainable companies incorporating A.I. into their business practices.

Live on stage at our Agenda 2024 client event, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, is in discussion with Gerard Minack from Minack Advisers. Tracey and Gerard discuss interest rates, company earnings and the outlook for economic growth both domestically and overseas.

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, talks about why our investment conviction level is the highest it has been since 2021 and how this has transformed into an overweight position in global over Australian equities. And why is OpenAI CEO Sam Altman investing in fusion?

(0:55) Tracey, we heard on your last podcast that you are a weekend road warrior on your motorcycle. Do you navigate markets in the same way you navigate roads?

(3:27) It seems like the Investment Committee at Escala has become more convicted in recent weeks. The Committee are feeling more confident now than they have since 2021. What's driving that view?

(5:39) One of our highest conviction views is a preference for US equities over Australia. What is that view based on?

(8:00) The usual question remains on the lips of investors – is this a bubble?

(11:26) Boston Consulting Group believes that AI and regular data centre demand will grow to 7% of total electricity demand by 2030.

(13:33) It seems as though the energy transition needs artificial intelligence and artificial intelligence needs the energy transition. The so-called Next Generation Energy could help address this.

(15:35) The other side of your new versus old economy trade is to underweight Australian equities. We have the Reserve Bank meeting today. What are your thoughts on Australia?

(18:03) The other conviction view the team has is a preference for Japanese equities. We have the Bank of Japan meeting today to discuss interest rates. The expectation from the market is that the BOJ will end its experiment with negative interest rates today.

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, celebrates IWD with a conversation with Lorna Kapusta, Fidelity's Head of Women & Engagement. How can wealth managers help women achieve their financial goals and become more confident investors? How can the skills learned by a motorcycle rider help ease financial anxiety?

(1:20) Maybe we could start with you telling us a little bit about yourself, your journey, and how did you find yourself in the role of head of women and engagement at Fidelity Investments?

(3:23) So what is Fidelity doing then to help women in improving their financial situation? You've been in this role for several years, haven't you?

(5:51) What other things have you found that tends to hold women back from feeling more confident about stepping out there and managing their financial situation?

(7:42) In your research, have you identified any issues that seem to be unique to women?

(9:36) Have you noticed if that caregiving role has increased post Covid?

(10:53) Having that plan almost acts like an anchor. It just calms you down when you're feeling anxious about your financial future. So just how important is that?

(13:54) I think getting the message out there, that sitting down and having a plan, actually does the opposite. It calms you down and it just makes you see clearer, doesn't it?

(16:29) You mentioned earlier about women, they think differently about investing and they can ride the ups and downs of investing better than men. Can you talk a bit about that? Why is that?

(18:28) Are women more likely to seek out advice?

(20:42) So a final question then, Lorna, from your sort of past, your previous experience, what's the best piece of financial advice that you've ever been given?

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, makes the comparison to the 1990s tech boom and notes by comparison, the market is not that extended right now. AI is going deeper into the economy and broadening across more sectors of the equity market. The ingredients are there for the sustainability of this market rally.

(0:44) We are just about through with the US earnings season. What is the final take on the results?

(2:55) The share price moves have been staggering for Nvidia. It begs the question, is the stock overvalued?

(6:34) Comparisons are being made between this AI boom and past bubbles.

(10:58) Tracey, we often get asked by clients how can we position portfolios for geopolitical risk? How do you respond to that?

(14:43) Tracey, we had our Investment Committee meeting yesterday and one of the most interesting discussions was around the divergence opening up between the US and Australia. The economic data seems to be getting better in the US but remains very weak here.

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, discusses the results coming out of the US earnings reporting season and why Facebook and Microsoft are in and Tesla and Apple are out of favour – this despite Apple having a cash pile equivalent in size to the Hungarian economy.

(0:54) Tracey, we are halfway through reporting season in the US and it is looking good so far.

(2:23) So, Apple has the equivalent of the Hungarian economy sitting in its cash account.

(5:43) It's not all tech though, is it? Other, more industrial companies are also reporting solid earnings?

(7:34) US regional banks are back in the headlines. What is going on there now?

(13:37) The US Federal Reserve met last week. It was interesting, particularly when considered with the latest employment report out of the US.

(16:01) While we are on the topic of central banks, Australia's Reserve Bank has begun a new era following recommendations that came out of the review last year.

(17:25) Our independent member of our Investment Committee Gerard Minack says the market is being too sanguine about the number of rate cuts coming for Australia. Do you agree?

(19:29) Before we go, you have just wrapped up heat week with your international equities managers. If there is one takeaway, what would it be?

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, discusses how events of 2023 give context to what is likely for 2024. And, how should investors respond to the heightened geopolitical risks that are so evident in this "war economy"?

(0:52) Welcome to the first podcast for the year. It seems fitting Tracey that we begin with your thoughts on the year that was.

(7:48) Tracey you and the team have just released the fifth edition of our annual outlook publication, Agenda, what are some of the key takeaways?

(9:50) This is another theme in our Agenda, the rise in defence spending in many countries around the world.

(11:45) Can you tell us about supply chain security, how does that feature as a theme?

(14:58) What about your views more generally?

(16:10) 2023 was the year of the Magnificent 7 – Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google, Telsa, Nvidia and Microsoft. What is the outlook for equities this year?

In this episode, Investment Analyst, Darragh Kennelly, talks to Mike Harut and James Tsinidis of Munro Partners to discuss the main takeaways from the recent climate change conference in Dubai. They also discuss the outlook for companies focused on the many subsectors of climate change for the year ahead and get insights from James' recent trip to visit portfolio companies in the US.

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, and advisor Ed Brooke are in conversation with Gerard Minack, independent member of the Escala investment committee.