Perspectives

Canada’s latest federal budget comes with some very big numbers.  

A more resilient economy has left the government with stronger revenues and billions of dollars in expected savings. And Ottawa’s massive spending plan – roughly $151 billion in net new spending over the next five years – largely aims to invest in and strengthen the Canadian economy and its sovereignty.  

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s second budget includes spending aimed at attracting investment, advancing major projects, targeted support for high-growth businesses, the previously-announced Productivity Mega Deduction as well as details on immigration levels. 

It also includes measures intended to help households still struggling with the cost of living and some new funding to combat homelessness.  

Rebekah Young, Vice President of Economic Policy at Scotiabank, joins the podcast from the federal budget lockup in Ottawa to assess whether this budget meets the moment and Canada's overall fiscal trajectory. 

Read Rebekah’s full report on the 2026 federal budget: Canada’s 2026 Federal Budget: A Big Savings, Big Spend Budget 

Key moments this episode:  

 
00:01:41 - Rebekah's headline takeaway to sum up the budget 
00:02:01 - What the budget tells us about Canada's overall economic outlook 
00:04:22 - Rebekah's interpretation of the budget title, ‘Masters of Our Destiny’ 
00:05:55 - Rebekah's analysis of Canada's fiscal trajectory with this new spending 
00:06:35 - Other areas of investment such as tackling homelessness 
00:08:13 - What the budget does to address affordability concerns 
00:09:08 - How the budget builds on the previously announced Productivity Mega Deduction 
00:11:31 - What we know so far about the Canada Strong Fund 
00:12:34 - New details on meeting NATO's 2035 defence expenditure requirement 
00:14:16 - The new immigration plan 
00:15:18 - How immigration numbers meet labour force requirements for future major projects 
18:23 - Whether new expenditures raise inflation concerns as the Bank of Canada hikes rates 
00:20:34 - Will this budget spur investment? 
00:22:39 - What matters most for businesses and investors in this budget? 
00:23:55 - What Rebekah will be watching in the next six to 12 months 
00:25:04 - Rebekah's main takeaways from this budget 

For the first time in three years, the Bank of Canada has raised its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing it to 2.50%. 

The widely expected move is aimed at containing inflation, which high oil prices have pushed up to around 3% – the upper limit of the central bank’s target range – since April. And while many businesses have absorbed high energy costs, Bank of Canada surveys suggest some may soon pass these increases onto consumers, spurring broader inflation concerns.  

This tightening comes amid ongoing trade uncertainty with the United States and as Canada pushes forward with major infrastructure and resource projects to bolster the country’s economy long-term.  

Olivier Gervais, the Director of Modelling and Forecasting at Scotiabank, says a rate hike was the right call given all of these factors. While this will increase the cost of capital for businesses, the impact will likely be small relative to transformative government policies like the Productivity Mega Deduction put forward to incentivize business investment and generate economic activity. Keeping inflation in check is also a far more important factor for fostering a positive business climate, he added. 

Gervais joins this episode of the Perspectives podcast, in collaboration with The Growth Lens by Scotia Growth Institute, to break down why the central bank decided to hike now, what it means for Canadian consumers, businesses, and why one rate hike is likely not enough. 

Key Moments:

00:01:40 – Olivier's main takeaways from the rate increase decision
00:02:56 – What changed since the Bank of Canada's last decision?
00:04:25 – How the central bank weighs uncertainties like oil prices and ongoing trade talks
00:06:00 – The likelihood of future rate increases 
00:06:39 – What are the conditions for economic growth in Canada like?
00:08:31 – How much the rate hike tempers investment and how much recent policies incentivize it
00:09:51 – What the rate hike means for consumers
00:10:35 – What the rate hike means for businesses
00:11:05 – How different sectors will be affected
00:12:01 – Olivier provides an overview of the housing market in Canada
00:13:34 – What would need to happen for the Bank of Canada not to raise rates in the next decision
00:14:31 – What Olivier will be watching until the next decision
00:15:20 – Key points for Canadians to know from the decision

We've got something a little different for Perspectives listeners this week. 

Over the past several months, we've been working on a new podcast: The Growth Lens by Scotia Growth Institute. 

While Perspectives explores the trends shaping markets, business and the economy, The Growth Lens by Scotia Growth Institute takes a step back to examine a broader question: what will it take to strengthen Canada's long-term economic future? Through conversations with economists, business leaders and policymakers, the show explores the investments, policies and major projects that could shape Canada's prosperity, productivity and competitiveness for decades to come. 

To introduce the show, we're sharing one of its recent episodes with Perspectives listeners. 

If you enjoy the conversation, you can subscribe to The Growth Lens by Scotia Growth Institute and explore more episodes, reports and articles here: 

The Growth Lens by Scotia Growth Institute Website  

Building Canada Initiatives: Year One Progress Report — The Shovels Are Calling 

Building Canada Initiatives: Pacific Link — A Flashing Green Light 

New episodes of Perspectives will return soon.  

Women's health is getting more attention now, but many women have spent years being told to push through symptoms that were misunderstood, dismissed, or normalized. 

In this episode, Dr. Sheila Wijayasinghe, family physician and medical director of Primary Care Outreach at Women's College Hospital in Toronto, explains why the gap in care still reverberates today — delaying diagnoses, affecting medical research, and impacting career growth, finances and day-to-day life.  

She also dives into: 

• how issues such as endometriosis, fertility challenges, perimenopause, and menopause can affect work and financial wellbeing  

• why women's health remains under-researched, and how that shapes the care patients receive 

• why earlier support, better awareness, and more open conversations can make a meaningful difference 

For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures 

Key moments this episode: 

00:3:46  Historical gaps in medical research and their impact on women's health. 

00:6:32 How women's health affects financial security and long-term well-being. 

00:11:08 The impact of health challenges on careers and workplace experiences. 

00:13:45 Why workplace support and understanding matter. 

00:16:41  The origins of the collective and its advocacy for women's health. 

00:21:09 The role of self-advocacy, peer support, and speaking up. 

00:24:41 Wellness trends: what's worth paying attention to? 

Artificial intelligence has quickly become part of everyday life. It helps people write emails, summarize meetings, generate code, and answer questions in seconds. 

But the next phase of AI may be less about generating information and more about taking action. 

In this episode, Ty Panagoplos, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer at Scotiabank, explains how AI has evolved from a specialized technology used by experts into a mainstream tool available to almost anyone. He explores one of the biggest trends shaping the industry today: Agentic AI. 

Ty breaks down what Agentic AI actually is, how it differs from generative AI, and why organizations are paying close attention to its potential to automate increasingly complex tasks. He also discusses how banks are approaching AI adoption, balancing innovation with security, governance, and trust. 

He also discusses: 

For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures 

Key moments this episode: 

00:01:45 Ty Panagoplos’ background in technology and banking 

00:02:50 Why AI suddenly became mainstream 

00:04:45 The biggest opportunities AI creates for businesses 

00:06:05 How AI is already being used across banking 

00:07:55 What Scotia Intelligence is and how it works 

00:09:55 Generative AI versus agentic AI explained 

00:12:00 Why Scotiabank joined an AI consortium 

00:15:05 The risks of AI and the importance of guardrails 

00:16:50 Privacy, hallucinations, scams and other concerns 

00:18:00 The next wave of AI tools 

00:19:30 Frontier models and the future of cybersecurity 

00:20:55 What AI could look like over the next three to five years

With a slightly more positive but cautious tone, the Bank of Canada announced Wednesday that interest rates would stay put, marking its sixth consecutive hold.  

As part of the decision announcement, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem outlined three key messages for the country’s population. First, after a rough start to the year economic growth looks to have resumed. Secondly, that inflation is poised to ease and, lastly, that uncertainty remains high.  

Two uncertain factors the central bank will be monitoring closely are the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) negotiations and how the war in Iran is impacting global oil prices.  

"We've been looking through the direct effects of higher oil prices on inflation, but the longer they remain elevated, the bigger the risk they spill over to other goods and services," Macklem said. 

To help break down what Canadians should make of the decision and expect in the coming months, Olivier Gervais, the Director of Modelling and Forecasting at Scotiabank joins the podcast.  

For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures 

Key moments this episode: 

00:00:00 Introduction

00:01:46 Olivier's Bank of Canada Experience

00:03:02 Why the Bank Held Rates

00:05:13 Canadian Business Resilience

00:05:58 Iran Conflict and Oil Prices

00:07:11 CUSMA Renegotiation Outlook

00:08:15 What Employment Data Tells Us

00:09:29 Inflation and Grocery Prices

00:10:27 What Would Lower Inflation?

00:10:57 Canada's Housing Market

00:13:04 Mortgage Renewals

00:13:57 Rate Outlook for the Months Ahead

00:15:42 Looking Ahead to September

00:16:05 Key Takeaways for Canadians

Oil prices have been moving again, and Canadians are feeling it at the pump. But while changes in gas prices are easy to spot, the forces behind them can be much harder to untangle. 

In this episode, Jennifer Stevenson, Vice President and Portfolio Manager with Scotia Global Asset Management, explains what is driving oil and gas prices right now, why events far beyond Canada's borders can still shape what Canadians pay, and how refining, shipping routes, global demand, and geopolitical risk all feed into the price of fuel. 

She also breaks down: 

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters so much to global energy markets 

Why Canada is not facing shortages, but is still exposed to global price swings 

How refining capacity, transportation and financial markets affect prices at the pump 

What could keep volatility elevated even if the immediate disruption eases 

For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures 

Key moments this episode: 

1:30 - Jennifer Stevenson’s background in oil and gas 
2:04 - What’s happening with oil prices right now 
2:44 - Why the Strait of Hormuz is so important to global energy markets 
4:04 - Whether there are alternate routes for oil and gas supplies 
5:03 - How a global energy disruption can affect prices at the pump 
6:04 - Why Canada is not fully insulated from global oil prices 
6:24 - Why producing oil does not automatically mean cheaper gasoline 
7:38 - How higher oil prices can affect Canada as an energy exporter 
8:47 - How quickly global events can show up in gas prices 
9:54 - Why gas station margins are thinner than many people think 
10:43 - How today’s gas prices compare historically 
11:50 - Why demand for gasoline does not fall much when prices rise 
13:22 - What could happen if the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues 
14:48 - What reopening the Strait could mean for oil and gas prices 
16:55 - Whether extremely high oil prices are possible 
17:58 - How consumers and businesses can plan for price volatility 
20:08 - What can be done to reduce vulnerability to oil price swings 
21:20 - Main takeaways for Canadians from the current energy situation 

For the fifth time in a row, the Bank of Canada announced it would be keeping interest rates unchanged as many economists expected.  

There are numerous economic factors the Bank of Canada says it’s monitoring before making any interest rate moves including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, flat GDP numbers and trade talks between CUSMA countries.  

When asked whether a cut or a hike to the 2.25% overnight rate is in the near future, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the situation is complex.  

“If the United States imposes significant new trade restrictions on Canada, we may need to cut the policy rate further to support economic growth. Alternatively, if the conflict in the Middle East continues and higher energy prices start leading to ongoing generalized inflation, monetary policy will have more work to do — there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate.”  

Scotiabank’s Chief Economist Jean-François Perrault is back on the podcast to break down what’s going on with the economy, whether recession risks are overblown and what Canadians can expect in the coming months.  

Food inflation is becoming harder to ignore, and it may still have further to run. 

As geopolitical tensions push up energy prices, those pressures are beginning to move through the broader economy. If it persists, it could impact what Canadians pay for food. 

Scotiabank’s Rebekah Young joins the podcast to break down why food inflation remains persistent, how global shocks are moving through supply chains, and why there are few quick solutions in the near term. 

She also explains what this means for households, and why central banks may face more difficult decisions if these pressures continue. 

Key moments this episode: 

2:01 – What has caused food inflation since the pandemic 
3:23 – Digging deeper into the economic factors behind food inflation 
4:52 – How the current causes of food inflation differ compared to during the pandemic 
8:10 – Which inputs are affected by the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz 
9:30 -  Understanding fertilizer types and how it affects farmers in Canada 
10:43 – How the war in Iran is affecting consumers 
13:50 – How the upcoming grocery benefit aims to help some Canadians deal with food inflation 
16:38 - How rising commodity prices could benefit Canada as a global producer of oil, fertilizer and more 
19:27 – How the Bank of Canada is reacting to food inflation 
22:24 – What Canada can do to stabilize food prices and mitigate risk for the future 

The Bank of Canada announced it would be keeping the overnight interest rate at 2.25% as uncertainty looms with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the renegotiation of the trade deal between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico.  

Scotiabank’s Chief Economist Jean-François Perrault talked with us on April 29 to break down the complexities of the latest rate decision, the scenarios the central bank is weighing, what Canadians can expect in the coming months and any silver linings amid all the economic uncertainty.   

1:36 – JF weighs in on why the Bank of Canada decided to hold 
2:37 – With inflation on the rise, could a rate increase be in store? 
5:45 – What happens if oil prices rise and CUSMA talks deteriorate? 
8:17 – What impact will the removal of the fuel excise tax for Canadians have on inflation? 
9:15 – JF on why he expects interest rate increases in the coming months, as early as July 
10:48 – What would need to happen to avoid an interest rate increase in July? 
13:19 – What impact could measures and spending in the federal government's Spring Economic Update have on the economy and inflation? 
15:31 – JF on what it all means for Canada's housing market 
21:00 – What this means for those renewing their mortgage soon 
22:43 – Main takeaways for Canadians