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The recently completed trips of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Communist China have drawn a sharp contrast for voters in the 2024 presidential election.  These trips have solidified the Biden doctrine of “strategic competition and derisking” with China, which is as far from the Republican view as Beijing is from Washington.

The only “good news” the Biden-Blinken-Yellin negotiations provide is that of a clear choice for American voters.  If you believe as Biden does that we are simply in a strategic competition with Communist China and that China’s economic and military activities pose no existential threat, then you will agree that the prudent course is negotiations aimed at first stabilizing the relationship and then achieving incremental changes over time.  Of course, in this view, you must also believe the Chinese actually want a mutually beneficial relationship and come in peace.  Believe all that and Biden is clearly your man in 2024.

If, on the other hand, you believe China has no intention of ceasing its economic aggression, that its goal is hegemony in Asia, and that globally it seeks to control the world’s resources and markets, then any one of a number of Republican candidates – with Trump clearly in the lead now – will be America’s choice.  

You decide.

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Bidenomics equals stagflation.  That’s America’s sober economic reality after more than two and half years of a Joe Biden presidency pockmarked by profligate government spending, soaring interest and mortgage rates, a precipitous loss of strategic energy dominance, a southern border invasion, a new and expensive endless war, and a rapidly expanding trade deficit.

Stagflation is a “tax” crueler than inflation alone, which eats away at our purchasing power.  This is because the “stag” part of stagflation also entails recession or slow economic growth.

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, Bidenomics is conjuring up the ghost of a 1970s stagflation past that ended in a landslide victory by the Republican Ronald Reagan over Democrat Jimmy Carter. In the final 1980 presidential debate, with polls surprisingly close given the grim economy, Candidate Reagan asked the American people “are you better off today than you were four years ago?”  That question – and its obvious “no” answer -- triggered a decisive break in undecided voters to the Reagan camp.

Will this Reagan-Carter past be prologue to a resounding Biden defeat?  The answer to this question must begin with this observation: Biden’s Democrat Party is supposed to be the party of America’s working classes and wage earners.  Yet, American labor is now bearing the heaviest burden of Bidenomics.

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Bannon and Navarro go mano y mano and explain the "French Connection" at America's southern border.

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When in the course of human events, a woke partisan mob, in collaboration with Wall Street globalists, social media oligarchs, and a propagandist corporate media seize the reins of power, it becomes necessary for the people most victimized to throw these rascals out. To this end, we hold these truths to be self-evident:

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CLICK HERE FOR A FREE COUPON TO PETER'S STRATEGIC MICROECONOMICS ONLINE COURSE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT SOME OF THE CONCEPTS IN THIS POST

It was a bullish week for economic news – and a mildly bullish week for both stocks and bonds.

My own theory is that in a post-pandemic age where more of us may have looked death in the eye or prematurely lost a friend or loved one, consumers have embraced what economists call a higher “discount rate.”  In this new “live for today for tomorrow we die” view in an old Epicurean bottle, a higher discount rate means consumers will tend to spend more in the present and save less for the future. Collectively, this helps lead to the kind of strong consumer demand we continue to witness despite relatively low consumer confidence by historical standards.

LISTEN TO THE PODCAST TO LEARN WHY THIS IS LIKELY UNSUSTAINABLE.

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Did Secretary of State Anthony Blinken cut a secret deal with Communist China’s dictator Xi Jinping to cover up the role of the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WVI) in genetically engineering COVID-19 in exchange for a smoothing of US-Chins relations?   In the language of the intelligence community (IC), that possibility needs to be “assessed” after the release of a startlingly counterfactual report from the Biden administration’s Director of National Intelligence (DNI) just days after Blinken’s return from Beijing.

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Beware of pollsters bearing pro-Biden or pro-DeSantis gifts.  I base this conclusion on two recent polling events that (once again) reveal a deeply biased and partisan pollster swamp. for example, the post-mortems of the polling results for the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections conducted by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.  In each November election, the IBD/TIPP Tracking poll got the results exactly right.  Good for it!

Yet, the vast majority of the remaining pollsters showed varying degrees of Democrat bias – 10 of the 14 featured in 2016 by Panagopoulos skewed Left and that number was 11 of 14 in 2020.  Would you be surprised to learn the worst offender in 2020 was Quinnipiac while Fox News finished in the middle of the Democrat bias pack in both cycles.

Here’s the obvious takeaway: Today’s polling industry simply cannot be trusted to deliver an accurate and unbiased result. 

Here’s a more subtle takeaway:  LISTEN TO THE PODCAST FOR THIS

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On Friday, I guest-hosted Steve Bannon’s War Room and spent the whole hour with former Navy Seal turned best-selling author Jack Carr breaking down his new book Only the Dead through the lens of MAGA.

Carr has established himself as the King of the Military Thriller yet his prose transcends the genre with incredibly insightful geopolitical and political analysis.

His grasp of MAGA principles such as an end to endless wars, secure borders, fair elections, and a strong American manufacturing and defense industrial base is iron-tight.

For any of your friends who think MAGA is a four letter word, this would be a good book and interview to recommend.

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Slowly, like a capsizing ship, global stock markets are rolling over while bond markets are rallying in the face of a persistent inflation that augurs a long term period of high interest rate austerity.

We have seen no market crash yet – indeed, the stock market has exhibited strong bullish pulses at times over the last year.  Yet, reviewing the tea leaves, that long dreaded, recession-driven bear market may finally be at our door.

What caught my eye this week in this news was the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House and Capitol Hill.  There is also mounting evidence of a meltdown in the commercial real estate market.

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Veni, vidi, vici.  Secretary of State Anthony Blinken came to Beijing, saw and kowtowed to Xi Jinping, and yet another American diplomat was conquered by Communist China’s “endless delay” negotiating strategy.

I know this negotiating strategy all too well from my four years in the Trump White House trying to negotiate an end to China’s unfair trade, cyber attacks on America, crushing of Hong Kong, and various other forms of aggression and Chinese imperialism. 

In his latest display of diplomatic impotence, the deepness of Blinken’s kowtow was startling. 

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