Politicology

To unlock subscriber-only content, visit: https://politicology.com/plus

This week, Kiel Williams from Decision Desk HQ joins host Ron Steslow to break down the biggest movement in polling and modeling, where it’s happening, in what races, and why.

Decision Desk HQ are among the most trusted experts in measuring and modeling public opinion and election outcomes. They’re the mathletes behind major outlets like The Economist, Buzzfeed News, VOX Media, Insider, and The New York Times, for election night results and final calls on races. 

(01:15) Changes to the election environment 

(02:40) Why it the midterms might look like 2014

(04:44) How the Senate races have shifted 

(09:10) Republicans increased odds of taking the Senate

(10:30) What’s going on in the House races

(15:25)The balance of power

You should check out Decision Desk HQ: https://decisiondeskhq.com/

Follow Kiel and Ron on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/KielTWilliams

https://twitter.com/RonSteslow

https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Catherine Sanderson (Poler Family Professor of Psychology and Chair of Psychology at Amherst College) and Matt Bennett (Executive Vice President for Public Affairs at Third Way) join guest host Liz Gilbert to unpack some of the most important stories of the week and how they’re shaping the political landscape:

(02:26) The latest January 6th Committee Hearing

(22:28) The most watched Senate races and wild debate performances

(34:34) Former president Barack Obama’s warning for Democrats not to be buzzkills

[Politicology+ Subscribers Only] The antisemitism from Donald Trump and Kanye West last week and whether you can separate art from the artist.

Politicology+ is our private, ad-free version of this podcast, where we also publish subscriber-only episodes, strategy, and analysis. To upgrade now, visit politicology.com/plus or subscribe in Apple Podcasts.

Follow this week’s panel on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/ThirdWayMattB

https://twitter.com/SandersonSpeaks

https://twitter.com/_lizgilbert

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

CBS News Congressional Correspondent Scott MacFarlane talks with Ron Steslow about the most critical filings and pivotal moments in the Feds’ ever-growing case against the January 6 insurrectionists.

(02:25) His move to CBS News

(03:19) The state of the prosecutions

(06:47) The types of sentences being issued 

(09:30) How prosecutors are sifting through the evidence

(13:55) The “Public Authority Defense”

(28:13) Kevin McCarthy’s plea for police officers and families not to “politicize” the attack 

(32:30) The threats and stories flying under the radar

Follow Scott and Ron on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/MacFarlaneNews

https://twitter.com/RonSteslow

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To unlock subscriber-only content, visit: https://politicology.com/plus

This week, Kiel Williams from Decision Desk HQ joins guest host Mike Madrid to break down the biggest movement in polling and modeling, where it’s happening, in what races, and why.

Decision Desk HQ are among the most trusted experts in measuring and modeling public opinion and election outcomes. They’re the mathletes behind major outlets like The Economist, Buzzfeed News, VOX Media, Insider, and The New York Times, for election night results and final calls on races. 

(01:21) Changes to the election environment 

(02:50) Overview of Senate Elections

(05:40) Movement in the Pennsylvania Senate Race

(08:16) The Georgia Senate Race

(10:37) What’s going on in the House races

(13:30) What to make of individual polls

(15:40)The North Carolina Senate race

(17:37)The balance of power

You should check out Decision Desk HQ: https://decisiondeskhq.com/

Follow Kiel and Mike on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/KielTWilliams

https://twitter.com/madrid_mike

https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Frank Sadler (Chief of Staff to Carly Fiorina), Lanae Erickson (Senior Vice President for the Social Policy & Politics Program at Third Way), and Molly McKew (Lead author of GreatPower.US) join host Ron Steslow to unpack some of the most important stories of the week and how they’re shaping the political landscape:

(03:02) Russia’s increased aggression, Tulsi jumps ship, Elon Musk’s “Peace Plan” that may have been written by Putin

(31:25) The Fed’s fight to against inflation and the danger of recession

(48:35) The Supreme Court ruling blocking Pennsylvania from counting undated ballots and the challenge to Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan

[Politicology+ Subscribers Only] The leaked tape of racist remarks by LA City council members, what it means for the mythology of an emerging pluralistic society that’s better than our country’s past, and how the lack of decorum diminishes our faith in government.

Politicology+ is our private, ad-free version of this podcast, where we also publish subscriber-only episodes, strategy, and analysis. To upgrade now, visit politicology.com/plus or subscribe in Apple Podcasts.

Support Molly McKew’s fundraiser for Ukranian AFU Stratcom’s winter gear: https://www.paypal.com/pools/c/8O0wORTDJg

Follow this week’s panel on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/LanaeErickson

https://twitter.com/MollyMcKew

https://twitter.com/RonSteslow

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To unlock exclusive content, visit: https://politicology.com/plus

Mike Madrid (Lincoln Project Cofounder), Ruy Teixeira (Nonresident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute), Scott Tranter (Investor and Advisor to Decision Desk HQ) join host Ron Steslow to discuss the erosion of support for Democrats among Hispanic voters

(03:01) Ruy’s background 

(17:00) The trend of Hispanic voters moving away from the Democratic party

(34:10) Joe Biden’s low approval rating among Hispanic voters

(35:40) What factors are driving the trend

(38:11) The Latino vote taking on the characteristics of the American electorate

(50:48) How Democrats could win back more Hispanic voters

(58:02) The tension between working class voters and voters concerned about environmental issues

Follow Mike, Scott and Ron on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/madrid_mike

https://twitter.com/stranter

https://twitter.com/RonSteslow

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To unlock subscriber-only content, visit: https://politicology.com/plus

This week, Kiel Williams from Decision Desk HQ joins Ron Steslow to break down the biggest movement in polling and modeling, where it’s happening, in what races, and why.

Decision Desk HQ are among the most trusted experts in measuring and modeling public opinion and election outcomes. They’re the mathletes behind major outlets like The Economist, Buzzfeed News, VOX Media, Insider, and The New York Times, for election night results and final calls on races. 

(02:15) Changes to the election environment 

(03:10) Overview of Senate Elections

(03:50) The most Senate Seat most likely to flip to Republicans 

(06:16) Polling averages vs win likelihood in Ohio

(08:30) What’s going on in the House races

(12:52) The importance of turnout and how the mathletes predict it

You should check out Decision Desk HQ: https://decisiondeskhq.com/

Follow Kiel and Ron on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/KielTWilliams

https://twitter.com/RonSteslow

https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike Madrid (Lincoln Project Cofounder), Susan Del Percio (MSNBC political analyst and crisis communications expert), and Andy Kroll (Investigative Reporter at ProPublica) join host Ron Steslow to unpack some of the most important stories of the week and how they’re shaping the political landscape:

(03:02) OPECs move to slash oil production, the UN calling for the Fed to stop raising interest rates and what this is doing to the political environment

(25:32) President Joe Biden’s visit to Florida after Hurricane Ian and how the Biden/DeSantis meeting could impact politics

(40:43) The Georgia Senate race and Herschel Walker’s insanity defense for paying for a former girlfriend’s abortion

[Politicology+ Subscribers Only] The power of traditional journalism in the choose-your-own-adventure news landscape. 

Politicology+ is our private, ad-free version of this podcast, where we also publish subscriber-only episodes, strategy, and analysis. To upgrade now, visit politicology.com/plus or subscribe in Apple Podcasts.

Follow this week’s panel on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/AndyKroll

https://twitter.com/DelPercioS

https://twitter.com/madrid_mike

https://twitter.com/RonSteslow

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To unlock exclusive content, visit: https://politicology.com/plus

Some of the most vexing political controversies, policy questions, and cultural crises of our current moment trace their orbit around the singular legal and cultural gravity of our 1st Amendment—and the radical, enlightenment wisdom enshrined in it.

What has really been going across college campuses—and what’s at stake for wider society outside the confines of higher education?

Is the colloquial public square, practically speaking, now privately held by a handful of tech titans?

How has the idea of “free speech” become so shockingly misunderstood that one of our major political parties can persuade a large swath of the country that a violent attack on the U.S. Capitol is “legitimate political discourse?”

Greg Lukianoff (President and CEO of the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE)) joins host Ron Steslow to discuss FIRE’s fight to protect free speech on—and, now, off—campus.

(02:15) Greg’s background and FIRE’s role in protecting the First Amendment 

(5:15) The Coddling of the American Mind 

(10:30) The state of free speech on college campuses 

(30:20) What’s driving the complaints on college campuses 

(39:55) FIRE moving off campus to create a culture of free speech 

(41:05) Why they decided to take on off campus speech issues

(50:31) Limits to protected speech

(59:10) Free speech and Big Tech

(1:04:25) Creating a culture of free speech

Visit FIRE’s Website: thefire.org

Follow Greg and Ron on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/glukianoff

https://twitter.com/RonSteslow

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To unlock subscriber-only content, visit: https://politicology.com/plus

This week, Scott Tranter and Kiel Williams from Decision Desk HQ join Ron Steslow to break down the biggest movement in polling and modeling, where it’s happening, in what races, and why.

Decision Desk HQ are among the most trusted experts in measuring and modeling public opinion and election outcomes. They’re the mathletes behind major outlets like The Economist, Buzzfeed News, VOX Media, Insider, and The New York Times, for election night results and final calls on races. 

(01:50) Changes to the election environment 

(05:17) Overview of Senate Elections

(06:30) The movement in the Pennsylvania Senate Race

(10:50) What’s going on in the House races

(12:40) Democrats getting burned in the Michigan 3rd after playing with fire

(18:04) If youth voters can impact elections

(21:40) Are pollsters getting it wrong (again) in 2022? 

You should check out Decision Desk HQ: https://decisiondeskhq.com/

Follow Scott, Kiel and Ron on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/stranter

https://twitter.com/KielTWilliams

https://twitter.com/RonSteslow

https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices