Just as we were preparing for the Podcast the result of the hearing into bullying came through and that dominates the chatter but these are my words relating to the races discussed:
PODCAST 09/12/21
FRIDAY
CHELTENHAM 2-25
I’ll be providing Ratings for this race but for I’ve enough back stats to produce Scribblings, too.
Nothing younger than seven, nothing older than 10….and with only one winner in the last nine years younger than eight and seven of the last 10 winners aged eight or nine, I’m going to look to that pair of age groups for my winner here.
I’m seeing no weight advantage at all and we’ve even had two carrying less than 10st in 2014 and 2015.
Market position of the last 10 winners suggests you drop the favourite for both win and place suggestions. Only one of the last six has placed and not a winner in the last decade.
Front four on the tissue makes sense as six of the 10 were so the only qualifier here is COMMODORE, trained by Venetia Williams.
She has saddled four in this race, in the last 10 years, won with one, placed with another.
I’ll have COMMODORE as a 20/80
Ron – COMMODORE – 20/80
Sean – SANTINI – E.W.
CHELTENHAM 3-00
A Cross Country event….I would close the curtains if they ran that in my back garden….hate them. They have no place at Cheltenham (he says, chucking a cat into the pigeon loft!).
Seriously, for betting purposes, I’d not spend a bean on them but Dick Dastardly has put it in the Podcast running order so, here goes….
In the last five years we’ve seen horses aged 11, 12, 8, 5 and 9 winning this but, generally, you want a nine year old…or older.
Definitely 11st or more on your back….nine of the last 10 winners suggest that is a positive trend, and in the first three on the tissue….eight of the last 10 winners were.
The winner, if trends speak the truth, is MIDNIGHT MAESTRO who is trained by the Cross Country King, Enda Bolger, runs in the colours of JP McManus, is a 9-y-o sitting co-favourite of three as I type and is a 20/80 @ the 5/1
Ron – MIDNIGHT MAESTRO – 20/80
Sean – ALPHA DES OBEAUX – E.W.
SATURDAY
DONCASTER 2-40
Obviously going to be won by a 3-y-o but, which one?
Weight stats are heavily in favour of horses carrying 11st or more and trading front two on the tissue and right now that horse would be PORTICELLO.
Another stat I’m liking is that four of the last five winners of this arrived having won last time out and of the front two on the tissue, he’s the only qualifier.
He won a Listed race at Wetherby turning cartwheels and arrives unbeaten in two career starts for a yard still bang in form and running a very healthy 51% RTF figure. The market for this has been funny in that since a tissue was put up, everything has drifted
Ron – PORTICELLO
Sean - KOLISI – E.W.
CHELTENHAM 12-05
Five of the last seven winners of this went off odds on favourite and nine of those 10 winners arrived having either won or placed last time out.
In the last seven years only one winner went off bigger than 7/4 but this feels like a much weaker renewal than those that have gone before. I see no Defi Du Seuil, Apple’s Shakira, or Adagio in here and so bearing that in mind, I’m thinking that purely for Podcast purposes, I’m going to suggest a 20/80 MESSAGE PERSONNEL.
He arrives the only winner last time out and is currently priced up @ 6/1.
I was impressed with the favourite, YORKSEA, on debut but felt he has better horses that had tried to win the race, falling into his lap, which helped him nab third place.
This race did us a favour in 2019 when we were all over BOTOX HAS and I had the pleasure of being there with Post Racing members….a great day out and one I look forward to repeating at some point in the future.
I’ll go 20/80 MESSAGE PERSONNEL
Ron – MESSAGE PERSONNEL – 20/80
Sean – MESSAGE PERSONNEL – E.W.
CHELTENHAM 12-40
A great shame that BOB OLINGER isn’t here because I wanted to see MY DROGO
