Power and Flour Podcast

What does the Democratic resistance to the Trump agenda look like? Seth went on a tear last week at Tusk talking about how Democrats seemed to be more interested in following public opinion than shaping it. In this episode, John and Seth talk about what shaping it looks like. Can party leaders tell us what to think, or at least what to think about? Do Democrats have anyone who can affect public opinion on issues as much as Donald Trump can among Republicans? What would a realistic goal be for Democrats if they could affect public opinion? John and Seth also talk about the baked goods for the March holidays of Saint Patrick’s Day and Purim.

Links:

* Seth’s Tusk piece, “Public Opinion is Mutable”

* Gabriel Lenz, Follow the Leader: How Voters Respond to Politicians’ Policies and Performance

* John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion

* Nigella Lawson’s Chocolate Guinness Cake

John and Seth were honored to be joined by political scientist Ashley Jardina for a discussion about race and white identity. We talk about just what it means to be “white” in the 21st century, how this identity has become more overt and more politicized in recent years, and how this is all playing into some of the Trump administration’s most aggressive moves in attacking DEI initiatives. We also talk about how distinct Obama’s electoral coalition was from those of other presidents, and the way racial identity is likely to play out in future elections. And speaking of Obama, we discuss a cake Ashley made in 2008 (see photo below).

Links:

* Jardina’s book White Identity Politics (2019)

* Seth’s book Learning From Loss (2020)

* Jardina and Mickey, “White Racial Solidarity and Opposition to American Democracy”

* Jardina and Ollerenshaw, “The Polarization of White Racial Attitudes and Support for Racial Equality in the US”

* Seth’s Tusk post on racism and democratic erosion

John and Seth examine the recent spate of town hall meetings held by both Democratic and Republican members of Congress. John sticks to his advice that members of Congress probably shouldn’t do these events, but that they’re good for democracy anyway, and people should attend! We talk about ways that these events can influence politics — both showing the limits of the majority party’s power and providing the opposition party with some energy and messaging ideas. We also discuss ammonia cookies.

Links:

* Clarke and Markovits, “Congressional Town Halls and Legislative Effectiveness”

* Gibson and King, “The Promise and Peril of Constituent Interactions”

* Abernathy, Esterling, Freebourn, Kennedy, Minozzi, Neblo, and Solis, “Constituent Communication Through Telephone Town Halls”

* Richard Fenno, Home Style: House Members in their Districts

* Ammonium carbonate

John and Seth were honored to be joined by Colorado Republican Krista Kafer for a discussion of what the non-Trump wing of the modern Republican Party looks like. We discuss what a post-Trump GOP could look like, what the costs of opposing Trump are, and the unique hold he seems to have over so many party members. Krista talks at length about her experience as one of the people who brought the lawsuit to disqualify Donald Trump from the Colorado presidential ballot due to his participation in the January 6th insurrection. We finally turn to a discussion about homemade marshmallows.

Links:

* Kafer’s Substack newsletter “Think Different”

* Kafer’s Denver Post author page

* CREW details on Trump v. Anderson, the attempt to disqualify Donald Trump from the Colorado presidential ballot

* A recipe for making marshmallows from marshmallow root

* Reviews of the top home grain mills for making flour at home

Trump’s targets in his first three weeks in office — USAID, the Treasury payment system, indirect costs at NIH, etc. — tend to be relatively obscure sounding and are areas that voters have little if any concept of, yet can have enormous effects on many aspects of American life. In this episode, John and Seth talk about the purpose of picking these targets, and the challenges facing Democrats and others trying to oppose these changes. Should messaging focus on the Constitution and the rule of law? The threat of a coup? The violation of the usual order of things? Threats to their own health and safety? Or something else? We also discuss guava pastries from Puerto Rico.

Links:

* Seth’s Tusk article on NIH funding and the overall attack on higher education

* Kathy Cramer’s The Politics of Resentment

* NY Times recipe for Pastelillos de Guayaba (Puerto Rican guava cheese pastries)

You can’t really talk about U.S. politics today without talking about polarization, but that concept is sometimes very murky, and can even be a distraction or a dodge. In this episode, John asks Seth some key questions about polarization — is it getting stronger, how is it related to the media, is it a dodge, is it related to gerrymandering, might it actually be good, can it be mitigated, etc. — and Seth goes off. Plus there’s an important discussion of babka.

Links:

* Daniel Kreiss and Shannon C McGregor, “A Review and Provocation: On Polarization and Platforms”

* Daniel Hopkins, The Increasingly United States

* Paul Pierson and Eric Schickler, Partisan Nation

* Joshua Dyck and Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz, The Power of Partisanship

* 1950 APSA report “Toward a More Responsible Two-Party System”

* Poole/Rosenthal/Lewis polarization measurements

* Seth’s Tusk post on Republicans no longer moderating before elections

John and Seth are honored to be joined by Boris Heersink, the author of National Party Organizations and Party Brands in American Politics, for a discussion about the upcoming contest for chair of the Democratic National Committee. We discuss just what national party organizations are, what chairs do, and why the next DNC chair might have more power to shape a functionally leaderless and out-of-power party than most do. We also talk about some instances when party chairs made a real difference in national politics. Finally, we discuss the wonderfully decadent pastry kouign-amann.

Links:

* Boris Heersink’s website

* Boris Heersink’s National Party Organizations and Party Brands in American Politics

* Washington Post article on the DNC chair race

* That time when the Wisconsin Democratic Party organized a “Princess Bride” table read

* Recipe for kouign-amann from the New York Times

* Au Kouign Amann bakery in Montréal

John and Seth examine how the Democratic response to the 2025 Trump transition is so different from what they did in 2017, and discuss just what is the best approach for an opposition party. Should they fight Trump on everything? Try to work with him where they can? Is it best just to let voters actually see what happens when Republicans get what they want? Also, we discuss yeast, both in sourdough starter and store-bought versions.

Links:

* Matthew Green’s Underdog Politics: The Minority Party in the U.S. House of Representatives

* Jamelle Bouie, “Now Is Not the Time for Surrender”

* Nyhan et al., “One Vote Out of Step? The Effects of Salient Roll Call Votes in the 2010 Election”

* King Arthur Baking on the difference between active dry and instant yeast

John and Seth sort through the remains of the 2024 presidential election to figure out what kind of campaign effects they can detect in there. They also look at just how good polling was and what kinds of narratives are being drawn from the campaign, and discuss tips for making really good ice cream.

Power & Flour will be on hiatus through the month of December, but we will return in 2025 with a whole new season of content! We look forward to chatting again soon.

This election season started in late 2022, and somehow, a mere 1,000 years later, it’s about to end. John and Seth discuss what to expect in the coming week. What actually will happen once the votes are in? What patterns will we likely see as the ballots are counted? Which states will take a while to count and which will go quickly? How soon will we likely know the winner (possibly days), and how soon will Donald Trump declare himself that winner (almost immediately)? And what role will the Electors play? Plus: Porridge bread!

Links:

* Nate Cohn: “Can We Trust the Polls?”

* FiveThirtyEight: “When Will We Know 2024 Election Results?”

* Seth Masket: “Trump will likely declare victory early. Don’t jump to conclusions.”

* Oat porridge bread recipe from Tartine Book 3

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