John and Seth look at the Trump and Harris campaigns’ ground games — their efforts to go door-to-door to turn out supportive voters in swing states. They discuss the existing research on just how much ground games matter, and then dig into Harris’ efforts to build on existing Democratic infrastructure, and Trump’s efforts to create something on the fly with millions in Musk Money. John and Seth also discuss their favorite Halloween candies and get into the difficult subject of candy corn.

Links:

* Seth Masket’s article “Did Obama’s Ground Game Matter?” from Public Opinion Quarterly

* Masket/Sides/Vavreck, “The Ground Game in the 2012 Presidential Election” from Political Communication

* NY Times piece on the Harris & Trump ground games

* Joshua Darr’s “The Incredible Shrinking Democratic Ground Game” at Mischiefs of Faction / Vox

* Sasha Issenberg’s book The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns

In this episode, John and Seth look at how polling organizations have tried to adjust to some misses in 2016 and 2020, where they understated Trump’s support by 3 to 4 points. Some polling organizations are attempting to weight their current polls by people’s recall of the vote from four years ago, and our hosts get into the pluses and minuses of doing that. John and Seth also look into evidence that the Republicans’ Electoral College advantage may be shrinking in 2020. Finally, they discuss favorite fall baking projects, including apple pie and apple butter. Some items mentioned:

* Nate Cohn on Florida polling and the Electoral College

* John being interviewed by Chuck Todd about rural polling in 2017

* An apple butter recipe from Sugar Spun Run

In this episode, John and Seth discuss the early vote in 2024. Who has voted so far? What kind of voters tend to vote early and what kind don’t? What are the consequences of an election “day” that lasts more than a month? Can we learn anything in advance by knowing who is voting now? Some links:

* Early voting statistics from the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

* TargetSmart’s early voting dashboard.

* Seth’s piece at FiveThirtyEight on how early voting isn’t very predictive of what’s going to happen in November.

* Brian Schaffner and Anthony Rentsch say, actually, early voting is pretty predictive.

Here’s a picture from Kanelbullens Dag (Cinnamon Bun Day) in Lund, Sweden:

John and Seth talk with DC political consultant Joe Fuld, founder of the Campaign Workshop, to discuss the skills and training of the current presidential and vice presidential candidates. How much does candidate skill actually matter? How well are these candidates doing? Could Kamala Harris have had a more successful rollout? Is Trump campaigning differently from 2016 or 2020? We also pivot to a discussion of pie crust and biscuits, and Joe has thoughts.

Links:

* Cathead biscuits from Garden & Gun

* A pie crust recipe that includes Joe’s secret ingredient

* The Campaign Workshop Blog

* The How to Win a Campaign podcast

* America’s Test Kitchen explains the role of vodka in pie crust

Also here’s a peach pie Seth made:

It’s our quick-turnaround presidential debate special! Seth and John discuss just who undecided voters are and what they saw in this debate (if any of them watched), the differences between prepping male and female candidates for a debate and the expectations they’re held to, whether it helps Trump to go deep into the Fox Cinematic University during debates, and what kind of effects this debate could have on the race.

Links:

* NYT survey on the one thing Americans remember about the Trump years.

* Understanding the bigotry of the immigrants-eating-pets narrative.

* A Gelman et al study of swing voters.

Below: A cake Seth made with more than enough buttercream frosting to pave over any edge problems.

In this episode, Seth and John discuss the level of organization that went into planning a new Democratic National Convention with a few weeks of prep time and the successes and failures Democrats found in its execution. John was at the convention and offers some impressions of the way Democratic speakers, especially Kamala Harris, both did and did not address identity. Also discussed: Seth’s baking adventures in Nashville and the condition of his sourdough starter after a 1,200-mile drive

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John and Seth are fortunate enough to be joined by Marquette University’s Julia Azari, co-author of a forthcoming book on the vice presidency, to discuss the vice presidential nominations of Tim Walz and J.D. Vance. What kind of strategies were being used here in picking running mates? What voters are they trying to activate or reassure, and how? What do these picks tell us about the presidential nominees and their parties? To what extent are these candidates relying on populist appeals?

Given Walz’s, Julia’s, and John’s experiences in the upper Midwest, we discuss what exactly hot dish is and how it’s properly made, while Seth makes disparaging coastal elite faces off camera.

Links:

* Julia Azari’s book Delivering the People’s Message

* “How Will Biden Choose his Running Mate?” (2000), by Julia Azari, William Adler, and Perry Bacon, Jr.

* The Good Politics / Bad Politics Substack

* The Politics in Question podcast

* Tim Walz’s award-winning hot dish recipe

Seth asks John a ton of questions about his experiences in polling and his impressions of polls in the 2024 cycle. How hard is it to poll these days? How accurate are surveys? How do people who actually answer surveys differ from other voters? How should we be interpreting these results? What do we look for to distinguish a good poll from a crap one? And finally, John and Seth discuss the favorite things they’ve baked, which include:

John’s croissants, which he describes as “butter and air”:

Seth’s 2016 election cake, with flan on one side, apple pie on the other, and a wall of graham cracker separating them

Seth and John are honored to be joined by political scientist Dr. Caitlin Jewitt of Virginia Tech, for a discussion about the primary reforms that are on several state ballots this fall. Why are states increasingly experimenting with top-two, top-four, and top-five systems, and how will this change our political system as more states go forward with this? Do these reforms weaken parties or strengthen them in the long run? Does ranked choice voting create better outcomes or just feed conspiracy theories about rigged elections? And finally, what’s the ideal temperature for letting sourdough rise?

Links:

* Caitlin Jewitt’s 2019 book The Primary Rules: Parties, Voters, and Presidential Nominations (University of Michigan Press)

* Unite America 2023 briefing on primary reform

In this episode, recorded about 24 hours after Joe Biden announced he would not stand for reelection, John and Seth discuss just what we know about Harris v. Trump polling so far, the Democrats’ rapid coordination behind Harris, what political science tells us about voting advantages and disadvantages for incumbents, women, and people of color, and what a Trump campaign against Harris is likely to look like. Plus, we examine Kamala Harris’ potential to be the first president skilled in the consumption and preparation of haute cuisine, and her visit to the E. Dehillerin cookware store in Paris.

Referenced links:

* Kamala Harris visits E. Dehillerin

* Kamala Harris schools Mark Warner in how to make a tuna melt

* Small Power, by David Doherty, Connor Dowling, and Michael Miller

* “Women Don’t Run? Election Aversion and Candidate Entry,” by Kristin Kanthak, Jonathan Woon