Power and Flour Podcast

Texas kicked it all off, but now lots of states are considering a mid-decade redistricting, potentially leading to a war of all against all for partisan advantage. Is this stuff legal? Constitutional? What could each side realistically hope to achieve? What does this looks like when the dust settles? To help explain this, Seth and John invited Eric McGhee of the Public Policy Institute of California to join the show. Eric is one of the nation’s experts on redistricting, and his formulation of the “efficiency gap” to measure gerrymandering has been used in Supreme Court cases.

Links:

* Lee Drutman, “What the Apportionment Act of 1842 tells us about today’s gerrymandering wars”

* Seth Masket, “The Texas redistricting. No, the other one.”

* Rucho v. Common Cause (2018)

* Kyle Kondik, “How the Redistricting Fight Could Change the Bias in the House”

John and Seth join the rest of the world in discussing the Epstein/Trump controversy and the extent to which it’s creating a real split between Trump and the MAGA base that cares so deeply about blowing the lid on this story. They talk about the evidence that actually exists to identify a rift or the rift’s closure, the political consequences of an angry and rootless base, the influence of the media in all this, and some actual evidence of savvy congressional Democrats. Plus, Bastille Day pastries and kolaches from Norm’s Coffee Bar in Newton, Kansas.

John and Seth dig into the Democratic nomination of Zohran Mamdani in New York City’s mayoral race, examining how he put together a winning coalition, and speculating why so many establishment Democrats (more in the city than outside it) have been fearful about his successes there. They also discuss what kind of effects this race could have on 2026’s primaries, and also why leading political figures from New York tend to be uninspiring or corrupt. They also discuss Czech kolaches, as well as a Minnesota restaurant that cooks only with pre-Columbian indigenous ingredients.

Links:

* Seth’s Tusk piece on Mamdani

* Article on the kolache diaspora

* Owamni restaurant in Minneapolis

There’s some ongoing confusion over whether the U.S. is actually at war with Iran, whether Iran is at war with Israel, whether Israel and/or Iran are violating a ceasefire they may or may not have agreed to, whether the airstrikes succeeded or failed, and more. John and Seth stick with the part of it they know something about: How the American public thinks about war. This episode gets into shifting public opinion, the role that partisanship plays in forming opinions about the war, the public’s longstanding anti-interventionist beliefs, why Trump might be pursuing these options, and more. Plus: Seth bakes a rosemary bread in real time, and John provides a pastry update from his wedding.

Links:

* Economist/YouGov poll on the Iran/Israel conflict

* Trump tries to oust Republican congressman for calling Iran strike unconstitutional

* Minneapolis pastry chef Diane Moua’s Instagram page

* Lékué silicone bread maker

John and Seth discuss the new Catalist report on what exactly happened in the 2024 presidential election. They discuss some fascinating trends, including the fact that higher turnout seems to be benefitting Republicans now, that the election was far closer in the battleground states, and that the electorate is getting less polarized by race and more polarized by education. Also on tap: Is pie ever appropriate for a birthday?

Links:

* Catalist report, “What Happened in 2024”

* Bonica et al., “Does Higher Turnout Now Help Republicans?”

This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support this work, consider becoming a paid subscriber.

Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-MI) has introduced articles of impeachment against Donald Trump, and the House Democratic leadership is trying to distance themselves from the topic. This effort represents a lot of what Democrats are struggling with right now — dealing with demands from their activist base to do something about Trump’s lawlessness but also not wanting to screw up a favorable political environment in 2026. In this episode, John and Seth dig into the politics of impeachment and also the value of pursuing something that has symbolic worth but is almost guaranteed to end in failure. They also discuss sourdough croissant bread and the virtues of baking in a masonry oven.

Links:

* Axios article on Democratic in-fighting over impeachment

* Julia Azari’s forthcoming book Backlash Presidents

* Sourdough croissant bread recipe

* Article about masonry ovens from Masonry Magazine

John and Seth dig into Trump’s flagging approval ratings, and especially the role that the economy, and economic perceptions, have played in this. They discuss how polarization seems to limit just how popular or unpopular presidents can be, and how partisanship colors just how people perceive the world around them. They also talk about Democratic messaging and how it can influence Trump’s approval ratings. Finally, the conversation turns to Cuban guava pastries and almond croissants.

Links:

* Seth’s Tusk piece, “What would it take for Trump to become really unpopular?”

* Civiqs polling on Republicans’ perceptions of the economy

* Madruga Bakery in Miami

* Porto’s Bakery in Los Angeles (Seth inaccurately called them Portillo’s)

Dr. Sara Chatfield joins John and Seth for a discussion of her research on the politics of bathroom access. It ends up being a rich conversation about the inclusion and exclusion of trans Americans from aspects of society, why the Trump campaign pushed so hard on this issue last year, and what Democrats could or should be saying in response. There’s also conversation about wedding cakes, one-bowl recipes, and Passover cookies.

Links:

* Sara Chatfield’s 2024 book The Politics of Bathroom Access and Exclusion in the United States

* AP article on gender and gymnastics

* Diane Moua, Minnesota pastry chef

* Yossy Arefi’s Snacking Bakes: Simple Recipes for Cookies, Bars, Brownies, Cakes, and More

* Judy Zeidler’s Matzoh Farfel Nut Thins

Could congressional Democrats, especially in the House, be doing more to slow down or oppose the Trump administration? Or do the numbers simply mean they’re out of power and have no ability to shape events? Special guest Dr. Matt Green, a political scientist who specializes in the powers of the House minority party, helps John and Seth sort all this out. The discussion covers the powers that minorities have in recruiting candidates, slowing legislative work, and messaging. We talk about what Democrats have done and could be doing on the budget, on the Signal scandal, and more. Plus we discuss pastries in Vienna.

Links

* Matt’s book Newt Gingrich: The Rise and Fall of a Party Entrepreneur (with Jeffrey Couch)

* Matt’s book Underdog Politics: The Minority Party in the U.S. House of Representatives

* Recipe for Kaiserschmarrn (Austrian scrambled pancakes)

* The original Sacher-Torte

Believe it or not, there are a bunch of important and interesting elections just around the corner. Seth and John talk about the candidates, the campaigns, and the stakes for some upcoming congressional special elections, Wisconsin’s Supreme Court, the legislative and gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the ever-annoying mayoral election in New York City, and more. They also get into the remarkable anti-incumbent mood these days. Plus, they talk about cannoli and brownies.

Links:

* Sarah Anzia, Timing and Turnout: How Off-Cycle Elections Favor Organized Groups

* Glossy Fudge Brownies from Serious Eats