This week Mark Leonard is joined by Jeremy Shapiro, research director at ECFR, for their annual end-of-year tradition: marking last year’s predictions and making ten bold forecasts for the year ahead. They look at how their 2025 calls stacked up—from Trump to German politics to Ukraine, China and migration—before turning their attention to 2026.

Will the European far right continue its advance? Is an uneasy ceasefire in Ukraine finally within reach? How might US policy on Iran, China and Europe evolve under Trump? And what role will AI, energy security and debt crises play in shaping the year to come?

This podcast was recorded on December 30th 2025.

Bookshelf

The Dream Factory: London’s First Playhouse and the Making of William Shakespeare by Daniel Swift

Ones and Tooze by Adam Tooze

Wer verteidigt Europa?: Die neuen Kriegsgefahren und was wir tun müssen, um uns zu schützen by Jana Puglierin

Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics when the rules fail by Mark Leonard (April 2026)

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