Probable Causation

Michael Lovenheim talks about how grade retention affects students' later criminal activity.

"The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence From a Test-Based Promotion Policy" by Ozkan Eren, Michael F. Lovenheim, and Naci H. Mocan.

“In school and out of trouble: The minimum dropout age and juvenile crime” by D. Mark Anderson.

“The effect of education on crime: Evidence from prison inmates, arrests, and self-reports” by Lance Lochner and Enrico Moretti.

“Priceless: The nonpecuniary benefits of schooling” by Philip Oreopolous and Kjell G. Salvanes.

“The crime reducing effect of education” by Stephen Machin, Olivier Marie, and Sunčica Vujić.

“Compulsory education and the benefits of schooling” by Melvin Stephens Jr.and Dou-Yan Yang.

“Better schools, less crime?” by David Deming.

“The effect of school choice on participants: Evidence from randomized lotteries” by Julie Berry Cullen, Brian A. Jacob, and Steven Levitt.

“The effect of grade retention on high school completion” by Brian A. Jacob and Lars Lefgren.

“How the timing of grade retention affects outcomes: Identification and estimation of time-varying treatment effects” by Jane Cooley Fruehwirth, Salvador Navarro, and Yuya Takahashi.

“Grade retention, postsecondary education, and public aid receipt” by Suh-Ruu Ou and Arthur J. Reynolds.

“The effects of test-based retention on student outcomes over time: Regression discontinuity evidence from Florida” by Guido Schwerdt, Martin R. West, and Marcus A. Winters.

“Test-based promotion policies, dropping out, and juvenile crime” by Ozkan Eren, Briggs Depew, and Stephen Barnes.

“Breaking bad: Mechanisms of social influence and the path to criminality in juvenile jails” by Megan Stevenson.

Steven Raphael talks about how California's sentencing reform policies have affected incarceration and crime rates in the state.

"The effect of sentencing reform on crime rates: Evidence from California’s Proposition 47" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael.

"Public Safety Realignment and Crime Rates in California" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael.

"Is Public Safety Realignment Reducing Recidivism in California?" by Magnus Lofstrom, Steven Raphael, and Ryken Gratett.

"Realignment, Incarceration, and Crime Trends in California" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael.

“Prison Downsizing and Public Safety" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael.

“Incarceration and Incapacitation: Evidence from the 2006 Italian Collective Pardon” by Paolo Buonanno and Steven Raphael. 

“Can We Downsize our Prisons and Jails without Compromising Public Safety? Findings from California’s Prop 47” by Bradley Bartos and Charis E. Kubrin.

"An Analysis of Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Case Dispositions and Sentencing Outcomes for Criminal Cases Presented to and Processed by the Office of the San Francisco District Attorney" by John MacDonald & Steven Raphael.

Emily Weisburst talks about the effects of putting police officers in schools.

"Patrolling Public Schools: The Impact of Funding for School Police on Student Discipline and Long‐term Education Outcomes" by Emily K. Weisburst

"Whose Help is on the Way? The Importance of Individual Police Officers in Law Enforcement Outcomes" by Emily Weisburst.

"Police in the Hallways: Discipline in an Urban High School" by Kathleen Nolan.

"Homeroom Security: School Discipline in an Age of Fear" by Aaron Kupchik.

"Testing the School-to-Prison Pipeline" by Emily G. Owens.

"Juvenile Incarceration, Human Capital, and Future Crime: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Anna Aizer and Joseph J. Doyle, Jr.

Mike Mueller-Smith talks about the Criminal Justice Administrative Records System (CJARS) -- a new source of administrative data -- and how criminal justice policy affects economic and social disparities in the United States.

"Criminal Justice in the US and Economic Inequality" by Michael G. Mueller-Smith and Keith Finlay. 

"Correctional Populations in the United States, 2016" by Danielle Kaeble and Mary Cowhig.

"Mass Imprisonment and the Life Course: Race and Class Inequality in U.S. Incarceration" by Becky Pettit and Bruce Western.

"The growth, scope, and spatial distribution of people with felony records in the united states, 1948–2010" by Sarah K. S. Shannon, Christopher Uggen, Jason Schnittker, Melissa Thompson, Sara Wakefield, and Michael Massoglia.

"Fathers Behind Bars: The Impact of Incarceration on Family Formation" by Bruce Western and Sara McLanahan.

"The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences" –National Research Council, Consensus Study Report.

"Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.

"The employability of ex-offenders: a field experiment in the Swedish labor market" by

Ali M. Ahmed and Elisabeth Lång.

"The Edge of Stigma: An Experimental Audit of the Effects of Low-Level Criminal Records on Employment" by Christopher Uggen, Mike Vuolo, Sarah Lageson, Ebony Ruhland, and Hilary K. Whitham.

Amanda Agan talks about the effects of Ban the Box policies.

"Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment" by Abigail Wozniak.

"Deleting a Signal: Evidence from Pre-Employment Credit Checks" by Alexander W. Bartik and Scott T. Nelson

"Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.

"The Unintended Consequences of Ban the Box: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories are Hidden" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.

"The Effect of Changing Employers' Access to Criminal Histories on Ex-Offenders' Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Massachusetts CORI Reform" by Osborne Jackson and Bo Zhao

"Does Banning the Box Help Ex-Offenders Get Jobs? Evaluating the Effects of a Prominent Example" by Evan K. Rose

"Ban the Box, Convictions, and Public Sector Employment" by Terry-Ann Craigie

"'Ban the Box' Measures Help High-Crime Neighborhoods" by Daniel Shoag and Stan Veuger

"Do Ban the Box Laws Increase Crime?" by Joseph J. Sabia, Taylor Mackay, Thanh Tam Nguyen, and Dhaval M. Dave

"Job Market Signaling through Occupational Licensing" by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung

"Statistical Discrimination and the Choice of Licensing: Evidence from Ban-the-Box Laws" by Riccardo Marchingiglio

"The Effectiveness of Certificates of Relief as Collateral Consequence Relief Mechanisms: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tia Stevens Andersen

"Criminal Records and Housing: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tara Martin.

"Encouraging Desistance from Crime" by Jennifer L. Doleac

Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration.

"The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.

“Disrupted Childhoods: Children of Women in Prison” by Jane A. Siegal.

“Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Affect Children?” By Stephen B. Billings.

“Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and Family Networks” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.

“Doing Time Together: Love and Family in the Shadow of Prison” by Megan Comfort.

"Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration" by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.

“Shared Punishment? The Impact of Incarcerating Fathers on Child Outcomes” by Kristiina Kuttunen, Martti Kaila, and Emily Nix. Draft available from authors upon request.

"The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration" by Will Dobbie, Hans Grönqvist, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, and Mikael Priks.

"The Cost of Bad Parents: Evidence from the Effects of Parental Incarceration on Children's Education" by Carolina Arteaga.

“Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.

"Does Incarceration Increase Crime?" by Evan K. Rose and Yotam Shem-Tov.

"The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith.

Manisha Shah talks about the effects of criminalizing sex work.

“Crimes against Morality: Unintended Consequences of Criminalizing Sex Work” by Lisa Cameron, Jennifer Muz, and Manisha Shah.

"The Effect of Adult Entertainment Establishments on Sex Crime: Evidence from New York City" by Riccardo Ciacci and Maria Micaela Sviatschi.

"Human Trafficking and Regulating Prostitution" by Samuel Lee and Petra Persson.

"Violence and Entry in Prostitution Markets: Implications for Prostitution Law" Samuel Lee and Petra Persson.

"Decriminalizing Indoor Prostitution: Implications for Sexual Violence and Public Health"  by Scott Cunningham and Manisha Shah.

"Street Prostitution Zones and Crime"  by Paul Bisschop, Stephen Kastoryano, and Bas van der Klaauw.

“Craigslist Reduced Violence Against Women” by Scott Cunningham, Gregory DeAngelo, and John Tripp.

“Income, Income Shocks, and Transactional Sex” by Katherine LoPiccalo, Jonathan Robinson, and Ethan Yeh.

“Transactional Sex as a Response to Risk in Western Kenya” by Jonathan Robinson and Ethan Yeh.

Kevin Schnepel talks about the effects of diversion from a felony conviction on long-run outcomes for criminal defendants.

“Diversion in the Criminal Justice System” by Michael Mueller-Smith and Kevin T. Schnepel

“Juvenile incarceration, human capital, and future crime: Evidence from randomly assigned judges” by Anna Aizer and Joseph J. Doyle, Jr.

“Incarceration, recidivism and employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.

“The criminal and labor market impacts of incarceration” by Michael Mueller-Smith 

“The labeling of convicted felons and its consequences for recidivism” by Ted Chiricos, Kelle Barrick, William Bales, and Stephanie Bontrager.

“Marked: Race, crime, and finding work in an era of mass incarceration” by Devah Pager.

“Discrimination in a low-wage labor market a field experiment” by Devah Pager, Bart Bonikowski, and Bruce Western.

“The Unintended Consequences of 'Ban the Box': Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories Are Hidden” by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.

“Expungement of Criminal Convictions: An Empirical Study” by J.J. Prescott and Sonja B. Starr.

“Unmarked? Criminal Record Clearing and Employment Outcomes” by Jeffrey Selbin, Justin McCrary, and Joshua Epstein.

Megan Stevenson talks about the effects of cash bail and Philadelphia’s bail reform efforts.

“Evaluating the Impacts of Eliminating Prosecutorial Requests for Cash Bail” by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson

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“The Heavy Costs of High Bail: Evidence from Judge Randomization” by Arpit Gupta, Christopher Hansman, and Ethan Frenchman.

“Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson.

“The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.

“The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope.

“The Downstream Consequences of Misdemeanor Pretrial Detention” by Paul Heaton, Sandra Mayson, and Megan T. Stevenson.

“Desperation and service in the bail industry” by Joshua Page.

Analisa Packham talks about the effects of syringe exchange programs on HIV rates, opioid abuse, and crime.

"Are Syringe Exchange Programs Helpful or Harmful? New Evidence in the Wake of the Opioid Epidemic" by Analisa Packham.

“Effectiveness of sterile needle and syringe programming in reducing HIV/AIDS among injecting drug users” — World Health Organization report.

“Needle exchange programs and drug injection behavior” by Jeff DeSimone.

“Needle exchange programs: Research suggests promise as an AIDS prevention strategy” — GAO report.

“Syringe exchange programs around the world: The global context” — GMHC report.

“The Moral Hazard of Lifesaving Innovations: Naloxone Access, Opioid Abuse, and Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac and Anita Mukherjee