Probable Causation

Phil Levine talks about the increase in gun exposure and accidental shootings in the wake of Sandy Hook. This episode was first posted in February 2020.

"Firearms and Accidental Deaths: Evidence from the Aftermath of the Sandy Hook School Shooting" by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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"The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States" by Andrew R. Morral, Rajeev Ramchand, Rosanna Smart, Carole Roan Gresenz, Samantha Cherney, Nancy Nicosia, Carter C. Price, Stephanie Brooks Holliday, Elizabeth L. Petrun Sayers, Terry L. Schell, Eric Apaydin, Joshua Lawrence Traub, Lea Xenakis, John Speed Meyers, Rouslan I. Karimov, Brett Ewing, and Beth Ann Griffin.

"What Happens After Calls for New Gun Restrictions? Sales Go Up" by Gregor Aisch and Josh Keller

"More than 240,000 Students have Experienced Gun Violence at School Since Columbine" by John Woodrow Cox, Steven Rich, Allyson Chiu, John Muyskens, and Monica Ulmanu

Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020.

"Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian.

“Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager.

“The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone” by Jesse Burkhardt, Jude Bayham, Ander Wilson, Ellison Carter, Jesse D. Berman, Katelyn O’Dell, Bonne Ford, Emily V. Fischer, and Jeffrey R. Pierce.

“The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction” by Tatyana Deryugina, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Julian Reif.

“Airports, Air Pollution, and Contemporaneous Health” by Wolfram Schlenker and W. Reed Walker.

“Traffic Congestion and Infant Health: Evidence from E-ZPass” by Janet Currie and Reed Walker.

“As the Wind Blows: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality” by Michael L. Anderson.

“Air pollution and children's respiratory health: A cohort analysis” by Timothy K.M. Beatty and Jay P. Shimshack.

“Air Quality and Error Quantity: Pollution and Performance in a High-Skilled, Quality-Focused Occupation” by James Archsmith, Anthony Heyes, and Soodeh Saberian.

“The Long-Run Economic Consequences of High-Stakes Examinations: Evidence from Transitory Variation in Pollution” by Avraham Ebenstein, Victor Lavy, and Sefi Roth.

Jenny Williams talks about electronic monitoring as an alternative to incarceration.

“Can Electronic Monitoring Reduce Reoffending?” by Jenny Williams and Don Weatherburn.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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“Criminal Recidivism after Prison and Electronic Monitoring” by Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky.

“Early Release from Prison on Electronic Monitoring and Recidivism: A Tale of Two Discontinuities” by Olivier Marie.

“Better at Home Than in Prison? The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Recidivism in France” by Anaïs Henneguelle, Benjamin Monnery, and Annie Kensey.

“Electronic Monitoring and Recidivism: Quasi-Experimental Evidence form Norway” by Synøve Nygaard Andersen and Kjetil Telle.

Sandip Sukhtankar talks about the effects of Women's Help Desks in police stations in India.

“Policing in Patriarchy: An Experimental Evaluation of Reforms to Improve Police Responsiveness to Women in India” by Gabrielle Kruks-Wisner, Akshay Mangla, and Sandip Sukhtankar.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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“Women's Police Stations and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from Brazil” by Elizaveta Perova and Sarah Reynolds.

“Gender, Crime and Punishment: Evidence from Women Police Stations in India” by Sofia Amaral, Sonia Bhalotra and Nishith Prakash. [Working paper available from the authors].

“Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” by Graeme Blair et al.

Elizabeth Linos talks about reducing burnout for frontline workers like 911 dispatchers.

“Reducing Burnout and Resignations Among Frontline Workers: A Field Experiment” by Elizabeth Linos, Krista Ruffini, and Stephanie Wilcoxen.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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“The Copenhagen Burnout Inventory: A New Tool for the Assessment of Burnout” by Tage S. Kristensen, Marianne Borritz, Ebbe Villadsen, and Karl B. Christensen.

“Understanding Burnout in Correctional Officers” by Jessie Harney and Elizabeth Linos

[Working paper available from the authors.]

Episode 43 of Probable Causation: Elizabeth Linos

Tim Moore talks about the long-term effects of the US crack cocaine epidemic on gun violence.

“Guns and Violence: The Enduring Impact of Crack Cocaine Markets on Young Black Males” by William N. Evans, Craig Garthwaite, and Timothy J. Moore.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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“The White/Black Educational Gap, Stalled Progress, and the Long-term Consequences of the Emergence of Crack Cocaine Markets” by William N. Evans, Craig Garthwaite, and Timothy J. Moore.

“Youth Violence, Guns and the Illicit-drug Industry” by Alfred Blumstein.

Episode 16 of Probable Causation: Stephen Billings.

“The Emergence of Crack Cocaine and the Rise in Urban Crime Rates” by Jeff Grogger and Michael Willis.

“Measuring Crack Cocaine and its Impact” by Roland G. Fryer Jr., Paul S. Heaton, Steven D. Levitt, and Kevin M. Murphy.

“The Social Costs of Gun Ownership” by Philip J. Cook and Jens Ludwig.

“It's the Phone, Stupid: Mobiles and Murder” by Lena Edlund and Cecilia Machado.

“The Role of Gun Supply in 1980s and 1990s Youth Violence” by Wm. Alan Bartley and Geoffrey Williams.

“Firearms and Violence Under Jim Crow” by Michael D. Makowsky and Patrick L. Warren.

“The Emergence of the Crack Epidemic and City-to-Suburb Mobility Between and Within Ethno-Racial Groups” by Takuma Kamada.

“Illegal Drugs and Public Corruption: Crack Based Evidence from California” by Alessandro Flamini, Babak Jahanshahi, and Kamiar Mohaddes.

“Opioid Use, Health and Crime: Insights from a Rapid Reduction in Heroin Supply” by Timothy J. Moore & Kevin T. Schnepel.

Episode 5 of Probable Causation: Kevin Schnepel.

Episode 27 of Probable Causation: Benjamin Hansen.

“Causes and Consequences of Illicit Drug Epidemics” by Timothy J. Moore and Rosalie Liccardo Pacula.

Panka Bencsik talks about a Chicago diversion program for drug possession arrests.

“Policing Substance Use: Chicago’s Treatment Program for Narcotics Arrests” by Ashna Arora and Panka Bencsik.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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“Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, & Anna Harvey.

Episode 51 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan & Anna Harvey.

“Diversion in the Criminal Justice System” by Michael Mueller-Smith & Kevin Schnepel.

Episode 5 of Probable Causation: Kevin Schnepel.

“Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Goncalves, and Emily Weisburst.

Episode 65 of Probable Causation: Felipe Goncalves.

“Seattle’s Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD): Program Effects on Criminal Justice and Legal System Utilization and Costs” by Susan E. Collins, Heather S. Lonczak, & Seema L. Clifasefi.

“Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha Solomon.

“Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans, and David C. Phillips.

Episode 67 of Probable Causation: David Phillips.

“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.

Episode 60 of Probable Causation: Elisa Jácome.

Bryan Stuart talks about how social connectedness within cities affects local crime rates.

“The Effect of Social Connectedness on Crime: Evidence from the Great Migration” by Bryan Stuart and Evan Taylor.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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All Our Kin by Carol B. Stack.

“Neighborhoods and Violent Crime: A Multilevel Study of Collective Efficacy” by Robert J. Sampson, Stephen W. Raudenbush, and Felton Earls.

“Social Interactions and Location Decisions: Evidence from U.S. Mass Migration” by Bryan A. Stuart and Evan J. Taylor (Forthcoming).

“Can You Move to Opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration” by Ellora Derenoncourt.

Episode 36 of Probable Causation: Ellora Derenoncourt.

“Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence” by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary.

Danila Serra talks about the effects of a new ethics training program for police officers in Ghana.

“Proud to Belong: The Impact of Ethics Training on Police in Ghana” by Donna Harris, Oana Borcan, Danila Serra, Henry Telli, Bruno Schettini, and Stefan Dercon.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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“Can You Build a Better Cop? Experimental Evidence on Supervision, Training, and Policing in the Community” by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert.

“Shaping Police Officer Mindsets and Behaviors: Experimental Evidence of Procedural Justice Training” by Rodrigo Canales et al.

“The Greater Manchester Police Procedural Justice Training Experiment” by Levin Wheller, Paul Quinton, Alistair Fildes, and Andy Mills.

“Can Police Training Reduce Ethnic/Racial Disparities in Stop and Search? Evidence from a Multisite UK Trial” by Joel Miller, Paul Quinton, Banos Alexandrou, and Daniel Packham.

“Procedural Justice Training Reduces Police Use of Force and Complaints Against Officers” by George Wood, Tom R. Tyler, and Andrew V. Papachristos.

Revised findings for “Procedural Justice Training Reduces Police Use of Force and Complaints Against Officers” by George Wood, Tom R. Tyler, Andrew V. Papachristos et al.

“Doing Research with Police Elites in Ghana” by Emmanuel Addo Sowatey and Justice Tankebe.

“The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.

Manasi Deshpande talks about how access to Supplementary Security Income (SSI) benefits affects criminal behavior.

“Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI” by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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“Does Welfare Inhibit Success? The Long-Term Effects of Removing Low-Income Youth from the Disability Rolls” by Manasi Deshpande.

“Changing Circumstances: Experiences of Child SSI Recipients Before and After their Age-18 Redetermination for Adult Benefits” by Jeffrey Hemmeter, Jacqueline Kauff, and David Wittenburg.

“Longitudinal Patterns of Disability Program Participation and Mortality Across Childhood SSI Award Cohorts” by Kalman Rupp, Jeffrey Hemmeter, and Paul S. Davies.

“Does Public Assistance Reduce Recidivism?” by Crystal S. Yang.

“Does Emergency Financial Assistance Reduce Crime?” by Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, and James X. Sullivan.

Probable Causation Episode 34: David Phillips

Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith

“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.

Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jácome