Probable Causation

David Eil talks with Chris Blattman about his book, "Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace."

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Zoë Cullen talks about how to incentivize employers to hire workers with criminal records.

“Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record” by Zoë Cullen, Will Dobbie, and Mitchell Hoffman.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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“The Effect of Criminal Records on Access to Employment” by Amanda Agan and Sonja B. Starr.

“The Unintended Consequences of “Ban the Box”: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories Are Hidden” by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.

Episode 8 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan

“Inefficient Hiring in Entry-Level Labor Markets” by Amanda Pallais.

“The Effects of Letters of Recommendation in the Youth Labor Market” by Sara B. Heller and Judd B. Kessler.

Pedro Souza talks about the effects of police body-worn cameras in Brazil.

“De-escalation Technology: The Impact of Body-worn Cameras on Citizen-police Interactions” by Daniel AC Barbosa, Thiemo Fetzer, Caterina Soto and Pedro CL Souza

“Wearing Body Cameras Increases Assaults Against Officers and Does Not Reduce Police Use of Force: Results from a Global Multi-site Experiment” by Barak Ariel, et al.

“The Effects of Body-Worn Cameras on Police Activity and Police-Citizen Encounters: A

Randomized Controlled Trial” by Anthony Braga, et al.

“Body-worn Cameras’ Effects on Police Officers and Citizen Behavior: A Systematic Review” by Cynthia Lum, et al.

“Evaluating the Effects of Police Body-worn Cameras: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by David Yokum, Anita Ravishankar, and Alexander Coppock.

“Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” by Graeme Blair, et al.

“How Body-worn Cameras Affect the Use of Gunshots , Stop-and Searches and Other Forms of Police Behavior: A Randomized Control Trial in Rio de Janeiro” by Beatriz Magaloni, Vanessa Melo, Gustavo Robles, and Gustavo Empinotti [WORKING PAPER]

“The Effects of Body-worn Cameras on Policing and Court Outcomes: Evidence from the Court System in Virginia” by Katie Bollman.

Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020.

• "Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.)

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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"Bail, Jail, and Pretrial Misconduct: The Influence of Prosecutors" by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson.

“Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson.

“The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.

“The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope.

“The Downstream Consequences of Misdemeanor Pretrial Detention” by Paul Heaton, Sandra Mayson, and Megan Stevenson.

Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson

"Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.

“Behavioral Biases and Legal Compliance: A Field Experiment” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.

Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020.

"How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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“Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk.

“The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.

“The Role of Age in Jury Selection and Trial Outcomes” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.

“A Jury of Her Peers: The Impact of the First Female Jurors on Criminal Verdicts” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.

“Politics in the Courtroom: Political Ideology and Jury Decision Making” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.

“No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and Sentencing” by Aurelie Ouss and Arnaud Philippe.

“Path Dependency in Jury Decision Making” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

“The Persistence of the Criminal Justice Gender Gap: Evidence from 200 Years of Judicial Decisions” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

“The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

Molly Schnell talks about how exposure to school shootings affects students.

“Trauma at School: The Impacts of Shootings on Students’ Human Capital and Economic Outcomes” by Marika Cabral, Bokyung Kim, Maya Rossin-Slater, Molly Schnell, and Hannes Schwandt

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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“Local Exposure to School Shootings and Youth Antidepressant Use” by Maya Rossin-Slater, Molly Schnell, Hannes Schwandt, Sam Trejo, and Lindsey Uniat.

“Not All School Shootings are the Same and the Differences Matter” by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight.

“Exposure to a School Shooting and Subsequent Well-Being” by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight.

“Shocking News and Cognitive Performance” by Panu Poutvaara and Olli Ropponen.

“School Shootings and Private School Enrollment” by Rahi Abouk and Scott Adams.

“The Effect of High School Shootings on Schools and Student Performance” by Louis-Philippe Beland and Dongwoo Kim.

“The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students” by Desmond Ang.

Probable Causation Episode 50: Desmond Ang.

“Surviving a Mass Shooting” by Prashant Bharadwaj, Manudeep Bhuller, Katrine Løken, and Mirjam Wentzel.

“Violence and Human Capital Investments” by Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner and Lívia Menezes.

David Eil talks with Sarah Lageson about her book, "Digital Punishment: Privacy, Stigma, and the Harms of Data-Driven Criminal Justice."

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Andrew Barr talks about how access to nutritional assistance in early childhood affects later criminal behavior.

“Fighting Crime in the Cradle: The Effects of Early Childhood Access to Nutritional Assistance” by Andrew Barr and Alexander A. Smith

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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Episode 1 of Probable Causation: Chloe Gibbs.

“Inside the War on Poverty: The Impact of Food Stamps on Birth Outcomes” by Douglas Almond, Hilary W. Hoynes, and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach.

“Consumption Responses to In-Kind Transfers: Evidence from the Introduction of the Food Stamp Program” by Hilary W. Hoynes and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach.

“Long-run Impacts of Childhood Access to the Safety Net” by Hilary Hoynes, Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, and Douglas Almond.

“Work Incentives and the Food Stamp Program” by Hilary Williamson Hoynes and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach.

“The Rate of Return to the HighScope Perry Preschool Program” by James J. Heckman, Seong Hyeok Moon, Rodrigo Pinto, Peter A. Savelyev, and Adam Yavitz.

“Adult Outcomes as a Function of an Early Childhood Educational Program: An Abecedarian Project Follow-up” by Frances A Campbell, Elizabeth P Pungello, Margaret Burchinal, Kirsten Kainz, Yi Pan, Barbara H Wasik, Oscar A Barbarin, Joseph J Sparling, and Craig T Ramey.

“Breaking the Cycle? Intergenerational Effects of an Anti-Poverty Program in Early Childhood” by Andrew C. Barr and Chloe Gibbs.

“Long-term Effects of Nurse Home Visitation on Children's Criminal and Antisocial Behavior: 15-Year Follow-up of a Randomized Controlled Trial” by David Olds, Charles R. Henderson Jr, and Robert Cole.

“Longer-Term Effects of Head Start” by Eliana Garces, Duncan Thomas, and Janet Currie.

“Early Childhood Intervention and Life-Cycle Skill Development: Evidence from Head Start” by David Deming.

“The Effect of Early Childhood Education on Adult Criminality: Evidence from the 1960s through 1990s” by John Anders, Andrew C. Barr, and Alexander A. Smith.

“Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead” by Stephen B. Billings and Kevin T. Schnepel.

Episode 16 of Probable Causation: Steve Billings.

“The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling.

David Phillips talks about connecting people released from jail with mental health care.

“Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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“Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha Solomon.

“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.

Episode 60 of Probable Causation: Elisa Jácome.

“Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason M. Lindo, and Isaac D. Swensen.

“Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah.

Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss.

“The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling.

“Stress on the Sidewalk: The Mental Health Costs of Close Proximity Crime” by Panka Bencsik.

“Policing Substance Use: Chicago's Treatment Program for Narcotics Arrests” by Ashna Arora and Panka Bencsik.

“Crisis Averted? The Effects of Crisis Intervention Units on Arrests and Use of Force” by Maya Mikdash and Chelsea Temple. (Draft available from the authors).

Aaron Chalfin talks about the professional motivations of police officers.

“The Professional Motivations of Police Officers” by Aaron Chalfin and Felipe Goncalves.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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“Political Economy at any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?” by Michael D. Makowsky & Thomas Stratmann.

“Finders Keepers: Forfeiture Laws, Policing Incentives, and Local Budgets” by Katherine Baicker & Mireille Jacobson.

“The Effects of Asset Forfeiture on Policing: A Panel Approach” by Brian D. Kelly & Maureen Kole.

“The Ferguson Report: Department of Justice Investigation of the Ferguson Police Department” by Department of Justice.

“Pay, Reference Points, and Police Performance” by Alexandre Mas.

“Modern Police Tactics, Police-Citizen Interactions, and the Prospects for Reform” by Jonathan Mummolo.

“The Effect of Police Oversight on Crime and Allegations of Misconduct: Evidence from Chicago” by Bocar Ba & Roman Rivera.

“Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer?” by Edith Linn.

“‘Drive and Wave': The Response to LAPD Police Reforms After Rampart” by Canice Pendergast.

“Policing the Police: The Impact of 'Pattern-or-Practice' Investigations on Crime” by Tanaya Devi & Roland G. Fryer Jr.