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We've been hit by a health crisis that has led us into the most serious global recession in almost a century.
Despite living in one of the richest countries in the world, many Australians are currently struggling financially, and if history repeats itself, the gap between the wealthy and the average Australian will only get wider.
But there's still good news. Though recent events have left many feeling uncertain, the same events will also be responsible for some of the best opportunities of our lifetimes. It may give you the opportunity to realize your own financial independence.
We're moving into a time of change.
Most people don't like change; we'd prefer a more predictable environment. But if you can get past that, you'll be able to take advantage of the opportunities that are going to arise, and that's what I'm going to talk about today.
How the Rich think differently
There is a classic book by Napoleon Hill that I recommend you read called Think and Grow Rich.
While it was written almost 100 years ago, you will find it on the bookshelf of almost every successful investor.
Now there is a good reason why the book is called Think and Grow Rich and not Get a Job and Work Hard and Grow Rich. It's because the rich think differently to most people and those who work hard at a job don't end up rich.
So let's look at the difference between wealth-generating thoughts and impoverished ones.
The Rich think Big Picture, while the Poor get lost in Detail.
I frequently see the rich do well by recognizing opportunities, while the poor get bogged down and distracted by all of the finer points. This often means that all they end up seeing in a given situation are obstacles or problems.
The Poor trade their time for money, while the Rich work their money.
The only way the average Australian knows how to get more money is by working harder; by trading hours for dollars - they either work more hours or get a second job.
The rich invest in assets like property that increases in value and brings in money whether the owner works or not.
The Poor think Cash Flow, the Rich think Assets.
The poor build their cash flow while the rich build their asset base (like their investment property portfolio).
The poor spend their cash flow (the money they earn after paying tax), while the rich spend their capital or money generated by their assets.
The Poor save their Money.
The poor save their money thinking it is a way to become wealthy.
On the other hand, the rich are comfortable borrowing and using leverage to buy appreciating assets.
The Poor decrease their Debt while the Rich increase their Debt.
The average Australian is scared of debt.
The rich realize that they become even more wealthy by owning assets that increase in value, such as well-located investment properties.
The Poor try to pay off their Home.
Your home is an appreciating asset and the only way most of us can ever buy a home is by taking out a mortgage, so even though your home loan is not tax-deductible, it is not bad debt - it is "necessary debt."
The rich recognize this and don't strive to pay off their home loans.
The Poor like to Trade.
The poor try to make money through trading - through buying and selling.
Whereas the rich understand that they make more money by holding onto their assets and never (or rarely) selling. They realize that they can refinance against the appreciating value of their properties.
The Poor think Scarcity while the Rich think Abundance.
The truth is that money is just energy, an exchange for value.
If you make the mental shift that money is limitless, that it can be invented and generated on demand, in line with the value you provide, it will open up all sorts of possibilities.
The Poor believe that Life Happens to them, while the Rich believe they Control Their Lives.
The rich believe they are the pilot of their destiny while the poor feel they are just a passenger being taken along for a ride in the flight of life.
The Poor think Small while the Rich think Big.
The rich think big. They take responsibility. They play the game to win and they do well.
When you think like a rich person you have big visions and dreams, you focus on doing what you love and are most passionate about.
The Poor want to be Rich, the Rich are committed to wealth
The poor want to be rich, while the rich are committed to becoming wealthier.
The Poor are scared of Failure.
The poor have a fear of failure - they see it as something bad.
The rich know that on their way to becoming financially independent they will have moments where things won't go according to plan - what I like to call retracements.
Just because something doesn't work out, it doesn't mean you have failed.
Nor does it mean you are a failure.
It simply means you have found another method or approach that doesn't work, and this discovery brings you one step closer to making sure it will work the next time.
The Poor think they know it all and don't need to be taught to become wealthy.
The rich know they can always learn more. They are constantly asking questions and seeking answers.
So what now?
As you can see, you need to develop a very different mindset if you want to become rich.
So how do you start to evolve your mindset? Well, you will need to take the following three steps...
Become aware of what's working for you – the thoughts, actions, and behaviors you want to keep and the things that haven't served you so well in the past – those aspects of your internal dialogue you want to change.
Model yourself on other successful people – people who have already achieved what you want to achieve.
In other words, the fastest way for you to become financially successful is to adopt the thoughts, behaviors, and actions of people who are already there.
Now it's time to act on your new positive beliefs. This process is commonly known as Be, Do, Have.
You become the person you want to be as soon as you start thinking and acting like that person.
If you want to become wealthy, become wealthy in your mind first (be that person), then behave the way wealthy people behave – do your wealth act.
Links and Resources:
Michael Yardney
Join Michael's Mentorship Program and learn the science of Getting Wealthy
Join us at Wealth Retreat 2020 in November
Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us
Shownotes plus more here: What the rich are doing to position themselves to get richer in the Roaring 20s
Some of our favourite quotes from the show:
"The rich have a big picture outlook on life in general and their investments in particular,while the poor think in a more detailed way." – Michael Yardney
"The rich don't get a second job. They send their money out to get another job to work for them." –Michael Yardney
"When you move from the realm of desire or wanting, to the realm of commitment, ambition, then you've got no choice. It's not negotiable. You're going to get there." – Michael Yardney
PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW
Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how
The coronavirus crisis has cut Australia off from the world. And our population growth is about to slow dramatically.
This is going to affect our property market and slow economic growth by up to 2%.
Every time we have an economic downturn, immigration becomes a topic of great interest. And with the likelihood of unemployment rising to over 10%, the discussion has become even more vocal.
In today's show, I discuss the political, economic, and property implications of immigration with our regular guest, leading demographer Simon Kuestenmacher.
You may be surprised by what his research suggests will happen to immigration, and the information may help you shape decisions going forward.
Highlights from my talk with Simon:
Links and Resources:
Michael Yardney
Simon Kuestenmacher - Director of Research at The Demographics Group
Simon's YouTube Channel
Shownotes plus more here: How will plummeting immigration affect our economy and property? With Simon Kuestenmacher
In these challenging times why not get the team at Metropole to build you a personalised Strategic Property Plan – this will help both beginning and experienced investors.
Some of our favourite quotes from the show:
"I think there's other benefits for infrastructure spending as well. We use local resources, we create local work, but it also leaves a legacy for the future." – Michael Yardney
"It looks like now we're banding together from both sides of parliament, both sides of government, and wanting to build a new, stronger Australia." – Michael Yardney
"In order for you to grow stronger, part of you must die." – Michael Yardney
PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW
Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how
When you were a kid, you probably thought being an adult was all about staying up late and not doing your homework.
But now that you're an adult, you know that there's a lot more to it than that.
Going to work, household responsibilities, paying the bills – and having your finances in order. And it's easy to get down on yourself when you don't have your finances where you think they should be.
But we all have different definitions of success and different ways of measuring how far we've come.
If you think about it, most Australians are living paycheck to paycheck and have a level of bad debt. When you realize that most Australians can't pay an unexpected bill of $400 or more, you'll realize that you're probably better off than you thought you were.
Today, I'm going to have a chat with Brett Warren about why so many Australians are bad with money.
Here's a number of reasons why we are so bad with money?
Bonus Points:
Links and Resources:
Michael Yardney
Brett Warren - Metropole Property Strategists
Metropole's Strategic Property Plan – to help both beginning and experienced investors
Join us at Wealth Retreat in November 2020 – find out more here
Shownotes plus more here: 20 reasons you're awful with money with Brett Warren
Some of our favourite quotes from the show:
"The concept here is that once you earn more, you tend not to save it." –Michael Yardney
"One of the reasons we're no good at money, one of the reasons we're scared of making investments or decisions is because of all the negativity out there." –Michael Yardney
"We are all irrational with money. We all drive around with one foot on the accelerator and one foot on the brake." –Michael Yardney
PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW
Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how
An Australian recession is just around the corner.
But what will it look like? And what will it feel like?
That's what we're going to discuss in today's podcast as I chat with Ken Raiss, Australia's leading property tax strategist and Director of Metropole wealth advisory.
We're going to talk about what you need to understand about a recession, why this time will be different, and what you're likely to experience.
We're also going to talk about what it will look like after the recession – don't worry, there will be an after and it will be good. We'll discuss how to protect your downside and give you some tips so that you don't miss the opportunities this recession will bring.
What will the recession in Australia look and feel like?
It's no secret that Australia is going to fall into recession.
But what does that really mean?
How will this affect you, your job, your finances, and the value of your home or your investment properties?
Recessions are always periods of significant opportunity and transfer of wealth. That's just how the economy works.
For instance, because of social distancing we aren't going to restaurants anymore, but we're still going to be eating, and some restaurants are prospering with takeaway while other grocery stores supermarkets are prospering because we are buying more food there.
So, there's always opportunity. It doesn't always mean that if you win somebody else is going to lose.
What is a recession?
A recession is when the value of goods and services has fallen in two quarters in a row.
Why this recession will be different?
Recessions usually come after a period of substantial growth, speculation, and general excess.
This time around, the Australian government has sacrificed economic activity in the name of health in response to the COVID-19 crisis. It's not alone in this, as you'd well know, major economies worldwide including major powerhouses like the US and China have done and are doing the same thing, albeit in different ways.
What will we experience as we move through this recession?
There will be much higher unemployment, it will be harder to switch jobs, and it's reasonable to expect more redundancies and terminations as the crisis continues.
This leads to a loss in income and falling wages, which reduces the spending power of affected Australians.
Even for those who are holding on to their jobs, uncertainty will rise.
The Real Estate market will take a hit because of social distancing and the inability to inspect properties and transact in the normal way.
Property transaction numbers will decrease – there will be fewer buyers in the market and there will be fewer sellers placing their properties on the market for sale.
Property parties will drop slightly, but investment-grade properties and A grade homes will not fall much in value.
Some recommendations:
Links and Resources:
Michael Yardney
Ken Raiss Metropole Wealth Advisory
Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan
Shownotes plus more here: What life looks and feels like in a recession
Some of our favourite quotes from the show:
"There's no doubt that some bargains are going to become available – in the stock market in the property market – because some sellers are going to overreact." – Michael Yardney
"I think people are going to try and time the market. They've always done that. We've always got it wrong." – Michael Yardney
"Remember, even if 20% of the population's unemployed, 80% will still be gainfully employed." –Michael Yardney
PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW
Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how
If you're interested in success, more money or property investment, today's show is for you.
First, we're going to talk about the single greatest trait of successful property investors, in fact of people in any field.
Then, I'm going to chat to Ken Raiss about land tax. That's a tax I don't like paying, but let's understand a bit more about it, what you can do about it, and if it can ever be avoided.
And finally, this week my mindset moment is a special session where I'm going to give you some hints to help you achieve your goals in any area of life, not just investment.
The single greatest trait of successful property investors
If you cornered me and asked me to come up with one single trait that I have found in common amongst the successful investors I've come across… what would that be?
It's that they make decisions and take appropriate action.
In his classic book "Think and Grow Rich", Napoleon Hill outlined 17 principles that he found to be responsible for the success of the world's top business leaders of his day. Way back in the 1930s, Hill discovered that all of the most successful people had the habit of making swift and committed decisions.
This principle, which is just as relevant today as it was almost a century ago, holds the key to determining the level of success you will achieve.
I've found successful investors gather the necessary information quickly, make an informed decision, and then take appropriate action.
And even when they don't have all the information they need, they believe it is better to make a decision with some information, than not to make a decision at all. They then take action and gather the balance of the information as they move on.
How do successful investors manage to take decisive action?
The fact is that successful investors are faced with just as much uncertainty in their lives as the rest of us, however, they manage to take action because they have focus.
They have clarity about where they want to be.
They know exactly why they are investing in property.
They have a time tested property strategy, a finance strategy to see them through the ups and downs of the property cycle and a tax and asset protection strategy to protect their assets.
To make the most of our current turbulent economic and property markets strategic property investors will need:
That is why it is critical to learn from experienced and successful property investors, from someone who has already achieved what you want to achieve and has retained their wealth in the long term.
What is the land tax? With Ken Raiss
Who should pay it?
Does it apply to my home?
And can I reduce this major property cost which seems to eat into my rental income disproportionally?
These questions are often asked by serious property investors who already have or are in the process of building a significant property portfolio.
So to answer your common Land Tax questions I had a chat with Australia's leading tax strategist Ken Raiss, Director of Metropole Wealth Advisory.
Land tax is generally levied on the unimproved capital value of the land – not the total property value.
Each state has different rules and thresholds of when the land tax will be applied.
As is the case for most taxes, it is up to the taxpayer to advise the relevant state department that they are subject to land tax based on self-assessment by submitting either a land tax registration form or a land tax variation form.
The land you own and occupy as your home is your principal place of residence (PPR) and is exempt from land tax.
There is a threshold (a dollar value) at which land tax will become payable.
What is my property is in the name of more than one entity, for example, a couple?
The couple is seen as a partnership and only one land tax threshold is available.
If either of the persons has land in their own right then at the secondary level only the proportion held together is included when determining the liability in total.
When purchasing land or property it is important to apply for a land tax clearance certificate to ensure you will not be liable for someone else's tax or to give you the opportunity to have any liabilities adjusted at settlement.
Links and Resources:
Michael Yardney
Ken Raiss: Metropole Wealth Advisory
Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us
Join us at Wealth Retreat 2020 –find out more here
Shownotes plus more here: The single greatest trait of successful investors | What you need to know about Land Tax with Ken Raiss
Some of our favourite quotes from the show:
"One of the big things that holds many people back, I've found, is fear." – Michael Yardney
"You must become a master at visualization." – Michael Yardney
"Your brain doesn't know the difference between something that's actually happening to you and something you're imagining. – Michael Yardney
PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW
Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how
If you're like me, you're probably sick of hearing about coronavirus all the time, so good news!
Today's episode won't be about the coronavirus. Instead, I'm going to teach you about wealth accelerators.
If you don't know what those are, you will know by the end of the show, and you'll understand how wealthy people use them to keep getting richer.
Then I'm going to have a chat with Pete Wargent about how Australians aren't moving much anymore.
The rich use these 7 wealth accelerators to keep getting richer
Do you understand what a wealth accelerator is?
Well, maybe you should … because that's the way the rich keep getting richer.
Now you've probably heard the expression money begets money.
Maybe you've even wondered why it's easier for people who already have plenty of money to make more of it.
Or maybe you've wondered why making your second or third million is much easier than it is to make your first million dollars?
Well, here's why….
Strategic property investors who have built a true property investment business, grow their wealth faster by using a number of what I call "wealth accelerators" that leverage their returns.
Let's look at them….
One of the biggest differences between how the rich and average Australian go about building wealth is how they invest…not their own money, but how they leverage and use other people's money.
The wealthy have mastered the art of using money they don't have to build their wealth.
They used borrowed money to magnify their investment activities and enjoy accelerated returns by borrowing and leveraging against assets they own and use this to acquire even more assets.
While many beginning investors waste time, energy, and effort trying to do everything themselves, successful investors put their time to its highest and best use.
Some beginning investors believe they're saving money by doing their own research, spending weekends house hunting, and competing with agents undertaking property negotiation.
However, their lack of experience usually means they get a secondary result and pay a huge learning fee to the market by paying too much for their property or buying the wrong property and missing out on significant future capital growth.
Believe it or not, the tax laws were written to benefit business owners, meaning if you run your property investments like a business you're able to accelerate your wealth creation by taking advantage of these laws.
Essentially, as an employee, your cash flow is a bit like this…. You earn money, you pay tax, you spend what's leftover.
However, as a business owner, the pattern is quite different. You earn money, you can spend it on legitimate expenses associated with operating your business and earning income, and then you pay tax on what's leftover.
Another wealth accelerator used by the rich is their ownership structures.
If you choose the right ownership structures for your investments you can accelerate your wealth.
Sophisticated investors own nothing in their own name, or very little in their own names, but control everything in structures such as companies and trusts.
Successful investors realize they don't have to be an expert in every field if they develop a good network around themselves, including a smart finance broker, good solicitor, a property savvy accountant, and a knowledgeable property investment strategist.
Having a great network around you enables you to leverage off other people's expertise.
Your network of relationships is critical to growing your wealth, not just for what they know themselves, but often for the people they know who could help you.
Another leverage point that makes the rich richer is the way they think - their mindset.
They just think differently to the average person.
The not so rich have a different reality to the wealthy.
To put it simply, your reality is what you think is real, which means your perception is your reality.
So if you want to truly become wealthy, you're going to need to open your mind to a whole range of new ideas.
When you look at the various rich lists you'll find that most wealthy Australians have either made their money through property or if they've made it through other business ventures they invested the bulk of their money in real estate.
Choosing the right property, owning it in the right structures, financing it correctly so that you can use more of other people's money, using the tax laws wisely to pay minimum tax and understanding the law to protect your assets, vastly accelerates your wealth creation.
Here's another interesting thing about these wealth accelerators…
Combining two more of them doesn't just speed up the growth of your property investment business incrementally. It helps grow it by quantum leaps.
So now you understand the wealth acceleration secrets of the rich.
We're moving less often
Some of the highlights from my chat with Pete Wargent:
Links and Resources:
Michael Yardney
Pete Wargent Next Level Wealth
Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us
Join us at Wealth Retreat 2020 –find out more here
Pete Wargent's new book Low Rates High Returns
Shownotes plus more here: 7 Wealth accelerators the rich use to get richer | We're moving less often – Pete Wargent
Some of our favourite quotes from the show:
"Successful property investors make the most of their time by leveraging other people's time." – Michael Yardney
"When you become aware of the tax laws and the deductions, you can maximize your income and legally minimize your tax." – Michael Yardney
"The fact is, what stops many people from becoming successful isn't what they don't know. It's what they think they know, which actually isn't so." – Michael Yardney
PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW
Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how
How much will property prices fall during the recession?
There's no doubt that turnover of property sales is dropping, and yes properties in some areas are falling in value.
But will they drop 10%, 20%, 30% like some people are suggesting? Which headline do you even start to believe?
Well, let's not worry too much about the headlines, because today I'm going to have a chat with Stuart Wemyss and we're going to give you evidence-based facts about what could happen so you'll have a better understanding about what's going to happen to unemployment and property prices and what you can do to weather the storm from a finance perspective.
Some Topics that Stuart and I Discuss:
Links and Resources:
Michael Yardney
Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us
Stuart Wemyss – Prosolution Private Clients
Stuart's article - Property market expectations & the impact of Coronavirus
Stuart's Book – Rules of the Lending Game
Shownotes plus more here: How much will property prices fall during the recession? With Stuart Wemyss
Some of our favourite quotes from the show:
"It's really hard to be greedy when others are fearful when you keep getting the negative messages." –Michael Yardney
"People ask me, "Michael how has your strategy changed for the current circumstances?" The answer is, it hasn't." – Michael Yardney
"I believe you've only got the right to say financial wealth is not worth it after you've created it." –Michael Yardney
PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW
Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how
Success is no accident.
The most successful people in life may not always seem like they have much in common.
How are The Beatles similar to Steve Jobs? Or Warren Buffett and Shane Warne?
But when their traits, habits, and work ethics are distilled down, these unlikely characters share many similarities.
They do the work, they turn up, they believe in themselves and sometimes, they even wear the same clothes.
In today's Build a Business not a Job Podcast I chat with Mark Creedon, founder of Business Accelerator Mastermind about a dozen techniques to triumph.
Whether it is the drive to be the best in the world at a specific skill – spin bowling – or the passion to build the most user-friendly tech experience at Apple, successful people are focused on their end goal.
Once people have the ability to spring back from their losses, they are more able to take the risks and challenges life inevitably throws out.
And once that mindset is in place, coupled with a focus on achievement, a loss can create a gain.
There is a necessary time to allow others into the business and to allow them to do the job in their way.
By allowing others to take the load and share their knowledge, the outcome can be greater than the sum of its parts.
Achieving a distraction-free state of flow is the best and most efficient way to work and get things done.
Berkshire Hathaway founder Warren Buffet says communication skills are the most important traits for success.
"If you can't communicate, somebody said, it's like winking at a girl in the dark," he says. "Nothing happens."
Successful people are often willing to stand out.
Test cricketer Stuart McGill says spin legend Shane Warne "broke the mold" in cricket, not only with his spin action but also with his off-field antics.
This pairing of performance and personality brought new followers to the game.
The ability to be agile and take chances – even if they fail – is a key habit of the successful.
People who thrive see the outcome. They determine a course of action and set their minds to achieve it.
Routine is a common element for those who succeed.
Successful people are decisive.
They may not always be right, but at least they make a decision, which allows for a speedier process and new possibilities.
This leads on from decisiveness.
The philosophy is about achieving small steps, not about sacrificing quality.
As there is no such thing as perfection – which is different for different people – many successes consider milestones and progress more important than a mythical ideal.
Resilience is considered the most important characteristic for success.
People will inevitably get knocked down, criticised, rejected, or considered wrong, but with stamina and grit, many people overcome.
Old-fashioned hard work, turning up every day, gets results.
Many successful people have systematized their life to strip back distractions.
By either planning ahead or making a routine of everyday tasks, they can reclaim time and energy to think about other outcome-focused enterprises.
Links and Resources:
Why not join Metropole's Business Accelerator Mastermind
Learn more about Mark Creedon – Business Coach to some of Australia's leading entrepreneurs
Join us at Wealth Retreat late in 2020 in join- find and more and register your interest here
Shownotes plus more here: 12 habits of highly successful people with Mark Creedon | Build a Business, Not a Job Podcast
Some of our favourite quotes from the show:
"I think one of the worst things that can happen is to get it right the first time." – Michael Yardney
"I think one of the traits of successful entrepreneurs, businesspeople, professionals, is that they get going knowing they don't know it all, but they know enough to get going and understand that they're going to learn the rest along the way." – Michael Yardney
"It's just too hard to do it on your own." – Michael Yardney
PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW
Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how.
The coronavirus crisis has transformed our markets back to buyers' markets. But does that mean it's a good time for you to buy property?
That's what I'm going to discuss in today's show, and in quite some detail.
Of course, like with most things in property, the answer is that it depends.
Are you buying a new home or an investment property? How secure is your job? How easy is it for you to get financing?
I've got a couple of interesting concepts that I'll discuss during the podcast, but let me answer the question: yes, it's a good time to buy property if you're one of the lucky ones who remains financially secure.
Because if you buy well now, you could set yourself up for the growth that's certainly going to come later this year.
But there are a lot of ifs and buts and maybes between now and then.
In this episode, I'll give you more detail about what I see happening to the property market in the short and long-term, as well as some lessons we can learn from previous downturns. Hopefully, at the end of this episode, you'll have some more clarity about what's ahead.
What's ahead if you decide to purchase property?
Is now a good time to buy property?
Should I hold off and wait for property values to fall further?
What's ahead for our economy and the property markets as Australia falls into recession?
These are the type of questions I'm regularly answering for our clients at Metropole and for the many journalists who have been asked me for my opinion.
And what I have been telling them is that our economy started the year with a little cold that progressed to the flu and now looks more like we have a case of economic pneumonia.
What's next?
Based on my perspective having been involved in the property market for over 45 years, I believe the impact of this on our property market will ultimately be temporary.
Now, this view may be a little different from what others who are forecasting that property values will drop anywhere from 10 percent to 30 percent; but remember …this too shall pass.
What will happen to our property markets will depend upon how long we are in lockdown, how soon our economy picks up, the level of unemployment, and importantly the level of consumer confidence coming out of our recession, which will be a good barometer of all the above factors.
Of course, if Australia experiences are multiyear downturn, caused by the world economy imploding, then, of course, property values would drop considerably.
I know some doomsayers are predicting this, but these are not the type of forecasts made by the credible economists I have been following.
What will be the short-term effects of coronavirus on Australia's housing markets?
Clearly our housing markets won't be immune to the Coronavirus economic fallout, but the impact on property values will depend on how long it will take to contain the virus.
Transaction levels will be significantly impacted over the next two to three months with discretionary sellers staying out of the market.
It really makes no sense to put your property on the market for sale at this time unless you really need to.
However, there will always be nondiscretionary buyers and sellers who do need to transact over the next little while.
It is likely that sellers will discount the price of their properties to conclude a sale, while buyers will take advantage of this to nab a bargain
But this doesn't mean property values will plummet.
In fact, as an asset class, bricks and mortar has performed exceptionally well during previous economic shocks.
This time around, with the banks giving mortgage deferments or holidays, it is unlikely that we will have a large number of forced or mortgagee sales that could undermine market confidence.
Many commentators are trying to compare the current markets predict how the current markets are going to perform based on how our property markets performed during previous economic downturns such as the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 or the recession of the early 1990s.
However, unlike previous downturns that were essentially financially lead, this downturn is a medical problem that morphed in an economic issue because of a short-term shutdown of our economy which has led to a supply-side downturn (even though we'd like to, we can't go out and buy goods as their supply is limited because the shops are closed) rather than a lack of demand-driven downturn.
Because of this and based on the predicted pace of the post-recession recovery, I would expect the pandemic to have a more limited and shorter-lived impact on house prices than either the early-1990s recession or the Global Financial Crisis.
What does this mean for property prices?
In the short term:
The worst affected residential markets will be:
On the positive side, households and property investors whose incomes remain stable and secure will be able to take advantage of historically low interest rates.
This should support a return to stronger levels of price growth in the medium term.
What will happen to property markets in the long term?
The largest and most direct industry shocks from the coronavirus are expected in:
However, I'm comfortable with the underlying long term fundamentals supporting our property markets in the medium to long term.
So is now a good time to buy property?
With property prices and competition falling away, the short answer is yes — if you're one of the lucky ones who remains financially secure.
One of the major lessons I have learned from previous downturns is the importance of taking a long-term perspective which always outsmarts short-term reactive thinking.
And for mine, it's always property fundamentals that really matter and drive our markets in the long term.
Links and Resources:
Michael Yardney
Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us
Shownotes plus more here: Is now really a good time to buy property?
Some of our favourite quotes from the show:
"We're currently experiencing something like a terrorist attack which has delivered a short sharp blow to our economy rather than experiencing a long drawn out war." – Michael Yardney
"But the economy is likely to rebound at the end of this year, in the 4th quarter of this year or early next year, at which time we are likely to experience a perfect storm for property." – Michael Yardney
"There is no doubt there will be opportunities in the market for those who are willing to go against the crowd." – Michael Yardney
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My special guest today is Robert Kiyosaki author of the best-selling book Rich Dad, Poor Dad.
When Robert's team reached out to me and asked me if I'd like to have him as a guest, I jumped at the opportunity, because I heard that he's got a message that he wanted to share with Australians about the challenges for our economy ahead, and the opportunities on the other side of the downturn.
Now, I don't agree with everything he has to say, but I respect that he's taught millions of people about the basics of financial literacy, so I was keen to hear his opinions.
You're going to enjoy the conversation as we talk a bit about his basic financial concepts before we get into deeper topics.
Although I don't agree with everything Robert says, I thought I'd give him the courtesy of the airtime he deserves, then after my chat with him, I'm going to share my views.
So, be sure to listen to both sides of the discussion, and then you'll be able to use that to inform your own views.
Topics that Robert and I discussed:
Michael's Thoughts on Robert's Interview
Clearly Robert knows a bit about real estate in the United States, where the rules are very different, where the tax regimes are very different, where the markets are very different, where the way you invest is very different.
In previous podcasts, I've explained why Australian real estate is different from overseas, but many overseas gurus just don't get it. In Australia, property markets are underpinned by the fact that 70% of properties are owned by homeowners, and half of them don't even have a mortgage against their properties.
Of the other half, many are well ahead in their payments, while others are using their mortgage to support the purchase of investment properties that bring cash in. This is very different to overseas.
Australia really doesn't have a debt problem – at least, not when it comes to real estate assets.
Robert also suggests that your home is not an asset – meaning that it doesn't bring money in, only expenses going out, so it's a liability. And if you accept his definition of an asset, he's right.
But that's not my definition of an asset. It's also not the common definition of an asset.
I believe a million dollars is an asset if you have it sitting in a bank, or even if you take it out and put it under your mattress. It's an asset even with no cashflow.
Robert is a cashflow investor, and that's what's appropriate for the tax rules and the system in the United States, but it has not made people wealthy in Australia.
There are four ways to make money on residential real estate in Australia:
The most important of those is tax-free capital growth. Unfortunately, too many people look for cashflow from their residential real estate investment, and that's just not how it works in Australia.
Similarly, Robert's concerns about our superannuation funds not being fully funded are just not accurate. The average superannuation fund that you and I are part of are fully funded.
There's no doubt that Australia's economy, and that of most countries in the world, will experience a recession.
But currently, a combination of monetary and fiscal policies should see us start to rebound in the third or fourth quarter of this year. Robert an innovative thinker and an expert in personal finance, but he's not an economist.
We have some very astute economists employed by our banks, by the Reserve Bank of Australia, by the International Monetary Fund, and they all see a difficult six months ahead, but nowhere near as negative as the naysayers grabbing headlines at the moment.
Links and Resources:
Michael Yardney
Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us
Robert Kiyosaki's Australian virtual seminar
Shownotes plus more here: Robert Kiyosaki Interview – Do what the 99% are not doing!
Some of our favourite quotes from the show:
"I wouldn't invest the way the way I invest in Australia in New Zealand, where the rules are very different, or in the United States." – Michael Yardney
"I'm not suggesting that there's a bubble in Australia, and I think those who think there are, are probably wrong." – Michael Yardney
"In Australia, residential real estate's a high-growth, relatively low-yield investment, and to try and make it something different just bastardizes it." – Michael Yardney
PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW
Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how
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