Trying to put smoke in a box

That's what it feels like to map why churches are dying. Most people who leave can't tell you why. They drifted. Three times a month became twice, then never. Ryan Burge, a sociologist and pastor, tracks the contradictions: the religiously unaffiliated climbed to 30% and stopped. Some churches that should close stay open. Others with resources fold anyway. Organizations scratch and claw past their expiration dates in ways no model captures. New Atheism ran out of steam. Baby boomers are aging out. And nobody can predict what happens next because the data reveals patterns but can't explain the drift.

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