In this episode we answer emails from Stuart, George and MyContactInfo.  We discuss a follow-up on another listener's accumulation portfolio, the foibles of trying to predict future interest rates and common fallacious reasoning, levered inverse treasury bond funds and other funds that do well in rising interest rate environments, and a follow up on our target date fund rant episode (#333).

Links:

Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of UPRO and synthetic alternatives:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

TestFol Analysis with an inverse treasury bond exposure:  testfol.io

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In this episode we answer emails from Jeff, James and Graham.   We discuss standard deviations and other metrics and tools at Portfolio Charts, revisit Episode 194 regarding the "Cockroach" portfolio, timing the transfer of a 401k to and IRA for better management options and some reasons for holding on to traditional IRAs and not converting them.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Portfolio Matrix Tool With Bookmark To Jeff's Portfolio:  Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts

Portfolio Annual Returns Tool With Bookmark To Jeff's Portfolio:  Annual Returns – Portfolio Charts

Portfolio Drawdowns Tool With Bookmark To Jeff's Portfolio:   Drawdowns – Portfolio Charts

Cockroach Portfolio Link:  The Cockroach Approach Whitepaper - Mutiny Fund

Big Picture Retirement Podcast Re Roth Conversions:  When Roth IRA Conversions Go Too Far (bigpictureretirement.com)

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In this episode we talk about some recent unfavorable changes to Portfolio Visualizer, have a look at a new backtesting tool, and then get back at it with emails from James, Andrew, Phil and Frodo.  We discuss how flexible withdrawal strategies improve safe withdrawal rates and how we use them as a fail-safe or backstop to our 3-1-1 plan, options for financing buying a house, a funny Avengers video and transitioning grandma's 19-fund portfolio to something simpler and better.

Links:

Rob Berger Video re Portfolio Visualizer:  Navigating Portfolio Visualizer's New Design and a Free Alternative (youtube.com)

Testfol Backtester with A Sample Analysis:  testfol.io

Morningstar Report re Variable Withdrawal Strategies:  Six Retirement Withdrawal Strategies that Stretch Savings | Morningstar

Portfolio Charts Variable Withdrawal Calculator:  Retirement Spending – Portfolio Charts

Phil's Video:  Introducing NOW internet (youtube.com)

Big ERN Article Re Cederburg Paper:  100% Stocks for the Long Run? - Early Retirement Now

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In this episode we answer emails from Scott, Midas, and Neil.  We discuss national debt apocalypse theories, the misuse and cherry-picking involved in bad data analyses and umbrella insurance.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Reinhardt & Rogoff Book:  This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart | Goodreads

Money For The Rest of Us National Debt Masterclass:  National Debt Master Class Part 1/3 | Money for The Rest of Us

Security Analysis Podcast with Yours Truly:  Frank Vasquez: Risk Parity Investing Part 2 (securityanalysis.org)

Portfolio Charts "Ingredients" Article:  Three Secret Ingredients of the Most Efficient Portfolios – Portfolio Charts

Long Term Treasuries vs. Stock Market 1981-2010:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Umbrella Insurance:  What Is Umbrella Insurance Policy? Definition and If You Need It (investopedia.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Average Joe, Matt, Kimbrough and Jon.  We discuss goooooold, Matt's proposed portfolio, preferred shares fund PFF and how often to look at your portfolio without going insane.

But first we discuss a recent article from David Blanchett recognizing that a 5% withdrawal rate ought to be the standard for financial planners and a New York Times article about financial independence and the EconoMe conference.

Links:

David Blanchett 5% Rule Article:  Is the 4% Rule Too Safe? | ThinkAdvisor

2013 Article Saying the Opposite:  The 4 Percent Rule is Not Safe in a Low-Yield World by Michael S. Finke, Wade D. Pfau, David Blanchett :: SSRN

New York Times FIRE Article (paywall):  Meet the FIRE Savers Who Retired Early - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Matt's Proposed Portfolio:  Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

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In this episode we answer emails from Kimbrough from Anchorage and anonymous Visitors from British Columbia and Denver.  We discuss fish hatching and slaughterhouses, long term treasury bond funds, the inherent problems and inefficiencies with many popular but inflexible withdrawal plans, and how we use our flexible 3-1-1 guidelines to match and maximize spending, fixing a cash hoarding problem and why you want a growth/value split in your stock allocations.

Links:

Security Analysis Podcast with Yours Truly:  Frank Vasquez: Risk Parity Investing Part 2 (securityanalysis.org)

VSG's Weird Portfolio:  Weird Portfolio – Portfolio Charts

Merriman Best-In-Class ETFs:  Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations | Merriman Financial Education Foundation (paulmerriman.com)

Merriman Podcast re Best-In-Class ETFs:  Best in Class ETF 2024 Updates (paulmerriman.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Steve, Mark, and Judy.   We take a frolic and detour into talking about going to law schools, talk about some Rob Berger videos and bucketeering, robo-advisor things and why they are not very helpful, and better choices.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Father McKenna Center Spring 2024 Newsletter:  Newsletter Spring 2024 - Father McKenna Center

Rob Berger Video on "Know Nothing" Portfolios:  Fed Chair Powell Just Taught A Masterclass On Investing (youtube.com)

Rob Berger Interview of Harold Evensky:  Conversation with the Father of the Bucket Strategy--Harold Evensky - YouTube

Rob Berger On "Bucket Strategies" Generally:  The Bucket Strategy is Flawed--Do this Instead - YouTube

Rob Berger On The "Never Retire" Retirement Strategy:  7 Reasons to Never, Ever Retire (even if you can) (youtube.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Zane, Slim Jim, and Jim Kirk.   We discuss recent moves in world gold markets, good and bad mental models of collective action and critical events, including Mimetic Theory and fractal sand pile models, avoiding the physical metals racket, the data and evidence showing that retirees experience inflation at a much lower rate than the CPI (and most financial planners and DIYers get this completely wrong, resulting in bad planning), and the new global portfolio analysis article at Portfolio Charts (again).

Links:  

Retirement Spending Smile models:  What Is The 'Retirement Spending Smile'? | Retirement Researcher

Spending Trajectories After Age 65 Research Paper and  Summary:  Spending Trajectories After Age 65: Variation by Initial Wealth | RAND

Portfolio Charts Article Re Global Portfolios:  What Global Withdrawal Rates Teach Us About Ideal Retirement Portfolios – Portfolio Charts

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In this episode we answer emails from Anderson, Brian and Drew.   We entertain ourselves on 4/20 with Anderson's "Uncle Frank" Portfolio and learn something from it, discuss asset swapping for management of retirement accounts with a hat tip to Justin (Risk Parity Chronicles), and discuss the new Global Portfolio analysis and tools from Tyler at Portfolio Charts.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Anderson's "Uncle Frank" Portfolio:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

"How To Do An Asset Swap" Video From Justin:  How to Do an Asset Swap (youtube.com)

New Portfolio Charts Global Portfolio Analysis And Tools:  What Global Withdrawal Rates Teach Us About Ideal Retirement Portfolios – Portfolio Charts

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

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In this episode we answer emails from Kyle, Andrew, Sameer and James.  We discuss some portfolio comparisons of levered 60/40 portfolios, interpreting and comparing safe withdrawal rates from various calculators and their practical application in consideration of variable expenses and needs (our 3-1-1 flexible withdrawal plan),  the foolish consistencies of DIYer and financial planners who seem to enjoy discouraging retirement spending,  and recent articles about Fidelity's spat with some ETF providers.

Links:

Kyle's Portfolio #1:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Kyle's Portfolios #1 and #2:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Kyle's Portfolios #1, #2 and #3:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Golden Butterfly Portfolio -- SWR And Other Characteristics:  Golden Butterfly Portfolio – Portfolio Charts

Larry Swedroe Interview About New Book and Factor Investing:  ‘Buffett really was not a great stock picker’: Financial researcher Larry Swedroe on how investors can emulate the billionaire investor – NBC Connecticut

Article #1 re Fidelity and Fees:  Fidelity Puts Nine ETF Firms on Notice That New Fees Are Looming - Bloomberg (archive.fo)

Article #2 re Fidelity and Fees:  Fidelity Adds Surcharge to ETF Platform | etf.com

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