Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer emails from Evan, James and Brandy.  We discuss the joys of more cowbell from first principles and its origin story, a recent back-and-forth between Karsten and Tyler, the inherent problems with trying to massage data with crystal balls and what it's really revealing about the shortcomings of a basic 75/25 portfolio, some nuggets from Bill Bengen's new book, and some musings about bitcoin and gold.

Links:

Early Retirement Now Article:  Can we increase the Safe Withdrawal Rate with Small-Cap Value Stocks? – SWR Series Part 62 - Early Retirement Now

Portfolio Charts Response:  The Human Complexities of Correcting the Record – Portfolio Charts

Bill Bengen's New Book | A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More.

Lyn Alden Talk:  Nothing Stops This Train w/ Lyn Alden | Bitcoin 2025

RSSX Fund:  ReturnStacked® U.S. Stocks & Gold/Bitcoin ETF

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

What makes a truly optimal retirement portfolio? The conventional wisdom suggesting a simple 75% S&P 500 and 25% bond allocation deserves serious reconsideration according to mounting evidence from multiple sources.

Bill Bengen, creator of the original 4% withdrawal rule, has published a groundbreaking new book that challenges long-held assumptions about retirement spending. By incorporating a more diversified approach—including US large, small, mid-size, and micro-cap stocks alongside international equities and treasury bonds—Bengen demonstrates that safe withdrawal rates could potentially reach 4.7% or higher. When accounting for current inflation levels, he suggests rates between 5-5.5% might be sustainable with properly diversified portfolios.

The historical data speaks volumes. When examining performance during the worst possible retirement starting years (1929, 1960s, 1972-73, 1999-2000, 2008-09), portfolios with value tilts or alternative assets consistently outperformed simple index-based approaches. This critical finding undermines the narrative that concentration in broad market indexes represents the safest approach for retirees who actually need to spend from their portfolios.

We also explore Bitcoin's potential role in modern portfolios, examining its correlation with technology stocks and questioning whether it functions as a true diversifier. Unlike gold, which maintains near-zero correlation with equity markets, Bitcoin increasingly moves in tandem with growth stocks as institutional adoption increases. This distinction matters significantly for investors seeking stability rather than speculation. New financial products like RSSX are emerging to capitalize on this dynamic, combining stocks, gold, and Bitcoin with adjustments based on relative volatility.

The fundamental question isn't about maximizing theoretical returns or terminal wealth, but about constructing portfolios that reliably provide income through various market conditions. A well-diversified approach has historically delivered better outcomes for those spending from their portfolios than simple stock/bond splits—aligning with Bengen's philosophy of spending more and enjoying retirement rather than dying with maximum wealth.

Looking to refine your retirement strategy? Send your questions to [email protected] or visit riskparityradar.com to join the conversation.

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In this episode we answer emails from Postmaster, John, and Patrick.  We discuss the ins and outs of managed futures, the outs of international bonds and currency funds, and Risk Parity Chronicles.  Reborn!

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Father McKenna Center Donations:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Demystifying Managed Futures Article:  Demystifying Managed Futures

DBMF Video (and link to YouTube channel):  DBMF in Four Minutes

Morningstar Article re Alternatives:  How ETF Diversifiers Performed During Market Turmoil | Morningstar

Summary: “The Misbehavior of Markets”. A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin, and Reward by Benoit Mande

Risk Parity Chronicles Shannon's Demon Article:  Shannon's Demon Explainer - by Justin

RPC Article re Rebalancings:  Does threshold rebalancing work with leveraged funds?

RPC Portfolios:  Overview of the RPC Portfolios - by Justin

RPC Subscription Link:  Risk Parity Chronicles | Justin | Substack

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Ever wondered how managed futures work and why they're becoming increasingly popular in diversified portfolios? This episode delivers a comprehensive explanation of these powerful but often misunderstood investment vehicles.

Managed futures use trend-following strategies (academically called "time series momentum") to profit from price movements across commodities, currencies, interest rates, and equity indexes. Dating back to the 1960s, these strategies challenge efficient market theory by capitalizing on the observation that when prices start moving in a direction, they often continue that trajectory for extended periods.

What makes managed futures particularly valuable is their complete lack of correlation with traditional assets like stocks and bonds, combined with their positive skew. Unlike stocks that "go up the stairs and down the elevator," managed futures typically deliver modest returns during normal markets but can produce extraordinary gains during extreme market environments - precisely when conventional investments struggle most. This unique return profile was on full display in 2022 when many managed futures funds gained 20-30% while both stocks and bonds suffered.

The democratization of managed futures through ETFs like DBMF, KMLM, and newer offerings from Fidelity and BlackRock has made these institutional-quality strategies accessible to everyday investors at reasonable costs. DBMF, in particular, uses an innovative replication approach to match the performance of the Société Générale CTA Index, functioning somewhat like a Vanguard for the managed futures space.

We also discuss why international bond funds make less effective diversifiers than managed futures, share exciting news about the return of Risk Parity Chronicles blog, and review the performance of our eight sample portfolios.

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In this episode we answer two emails from John and one from Pete.  We revel in John's summary of the podcast from its humble beginnings to its current form, his sailboat analogy to portfolio construction and his highly humorous questions.  We also discuss two common but conflicting investor biases: rejecting assets because they've performed poorly recently or because they've performed too well recently and discuss rebalancing rules for leveraged funds and the newer managed futures fund CTA.

Links:

Listener Blog Post Describing Risk Parity Concepts:  15 Uncorrelated Assets | SSiS

Pete's Testfolio Rebalancing Analyses:  testfol.io/?s=k6HKskV4lsy

Testfolio CTA Analysis:  testfol.io/analysis?s=9WzkwrOUa0h

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

The evolution of Risk Parity Radio takes center stage as we dive into a fascinating listener journey through 445 episodes of financial wisdom and soundbite mayhem. From our humble COVID-project beginnings to developing signature elements like standardized soundbites, cowbell references, and charitable partnerships, this episode offers a rare look at how the podcast has grown alongside its community.

A brilliant sailing analogy perfectly captures the essence of risk parity investing: just as skilled sailors can make forward progress in various wind conditions by using the right sails, diversified portfolios can navigate different economic environments by including assets that perform well under specific conditions. This metaphor elegantly explains why we emphasize creating all-weather portfolios rather than attempting to predict market movements.

Gold's dramatic turnaround provides a perfect case study in investment humility. In late 2022, some listeners questioned including gold, calling it a "waste of space" that wasn't fulfilling its purpose. Fast forward to 2025, and gold delivered an impressive 28% compound annual growth rate. This example highlights a common cognitive trap: rejecting unfamiliar assets either because they've performed poorly recently ("must be done forever") or because they've performed too well ("must be too high to invest in now").

We also explore technical questions about rebalancing strategies for portfolios containing leveraged ETFs and observations about managed futures funds, demonstrating how complex portfolio management requires thoughtful consideration beyond simple formulas.

Whether you're a longtime listener appreciating the walk down memory lane or a newcomer curious about our approach to investing, this episode delivers valuable insights about portfolio construction while maintaining our characteristic blend of education and entertainment. Ready to dive deeper? Subscribe now and join our community of thoughtful DIY investors!

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In this episode we answer emails from Ian, Bruce and Boone.  We discuss dealing with a 401k with limited options, the limitations of the ticker symbol analyzers of Portfolio Visualizer and incorporating individual stocks into a retirement portfolio, and limitations and developments in leveraged ETF land.

Note:  No podcast this upcoming weekend as Frank and Mary will be on hiatus.  Check out Frank's recent interview on the Mile HI FI podcast for more insights and a scintillating discussion about cooked green vegetables.

Links:

Optimized Portfolio Website:  Leverage | Optimized Portfolio

Testfolio Website:  testfol.io

Value Stock Geek Website:  Security Analysis | Value Stock Geek | Substack

Mile Hi Fi Podcast:  You Should Spend More (Probably) - Frank Vasquez | MHFI 279 | Mile High FI Podcast

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Frank Vasquez dives into the practical realities of implementing risk parity principles within common investment constraints in this illuminating Q&A session. Drawing on his wealth of experience, Frank tackles three distinct listener questions that reveal the gap between theoretical investment strategies and their real-world application.

When confronted with a listener's limited 401k options, Frank demonstrates how to make pragmatic choices while staying true to risk-conscious investing principles. Rather than abandoning risk parity altogether, he suggests practical compromises using available funds for the short term, with plans to transition to a more ideal allocation after retirement. This advice brilliantly showcases how financial independence seekers can adapt sophisticated strategies to work within institutional limitations.

The conversation takes a fascinating turn as Frank debunks misleading backtest results from Portfolio Visualizer, explaining why recent market conditions might create dangerously optimistic expectations about individual stock performance. With characteristic humor, he guides listeners away from recency bias and toward sound portfolio construction principles that prioritize asset allocation over security selection.

Perhaps most valuably, Frank explores the complex world of leveraged ETFs, demystifying why products like UPRO and TMF rarely achieve their stated multiplication factors over extended periods. His careful analysis of these sophisticated tools, along with newer innovations like return-stacked ETFs, provides crucial perspective for investors considering these instruments for retirement planning.

Throughout the episode, Frank balances technical expertise with accessibility, using cultural references and humor to make complex concepts digestible. His commitment to evidence-based investing shines through as he consistently reminds listeners to focus on risk management, broad diversification, and long-term thinking rather than chasing recent performance or market timing.

Have questions about implementing risk parity in your own portfolio? Email Frank at [email protected] or visit riskparityradio.com to learn more about building resilient investment strategies that can weather any market environment.

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In this episode we break rules and have guests!  Dennis and Ben from the Father McKenna Center.  We review the fabulous results of the Top of the T-Shirt Campaign and reflect on the generosity engagement of our listeners.

Then we answer emails from Jamie, Camille and Jon.  We discuss Jamie's portfolio experiments, bond allocations in a 403b, musing about changes in the reserve currency status of the US Dollar and transitioning issues.

And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Jamie's Portfolio Analyses:  https://testfol.io/?s=jusQGGadC9P

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

What happens when a finance podcast community rallies around a worthy cause? Something extraordinary. In this special episode, we break our "no guests" rule to welcome Dennis D and Ben Hoffschneider from the Father McKenna Center, where they share the remarkable story behind our recent fundraising campaign.

Dennis's journey will stop you in your tracks – from arriving at the center homeless after a 24-hour bus ride from Florida to eventually becoming its Executive Director. His powerful testimony shows how organizations like the McKenna Center transform lives daily. When our listener "Matthew63" stepped forward with a $15,000 matching challenge, none of us expected what would follow.

The results left everyone speechless: $60,969.83 raised (yes, down to the penny) from approximately 100 donors across the country. This campaign now represents 4% of the center's annual budget and has become their leading donor source for the fiscal year. As we reflect on Theodore Roosevelt's famous "Man in the Arena" speech, it becomes clear who the true warriors are – those doing the daily work with limited resources to address homelessness and food insecurity.

After our interview, we tackle several listener questions about portfolio construction. Jamie wonders about using VXX and SCO as bond replacements, Camille seeks guidance on holding treasury bonds in retirement accounts, and John asks about transitioning from target date funds to a more diversified approach. We close with our weekly portfolio review, noting gold's continued strong performance up 27.83% year-to-date.

Want to support the Father McKenna Center's work? Register for their Walk for McKenna on September 27th or follow them on social media to see your donations in action. The t-shirts featuring our logo will be available mid-September – a small reminder of what we can accomplish together.

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In this episode we answer emails from Thirsty Horse, Graham, Chris, Oberon, Ronald and Mark.  We discuss their personal progress with finances and better relationships, books about that and thriving, treasury bond funds, choosing volunteering and charitable opportunities, and sample portfolio dividends and interest.

Campaign update: Top of the T-Shirt fundraiser for Father McKenna Center closing July 31!

Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Testfolio Comparison of VGLT, TYA and GOVZ:  testfol.io/analysis?s=4bAJZXAObDD

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

The journey from wealth accumulation to meaningful spending is perhaps one of the most challenging psychological transitions in personal finance. In this thought-provoking episode, we explore the mental barriers that prevent even financially successful people from fully enjoying their hard-earned freedom.

Through several listener stories, we witness the transformative power of risk parity principles not just as investment strategies, but as confidence-building frameworks that empower life changes. One listener shares how implementing these concepts gave them the security to leave a high-paying career for more purposeful work. Another reveals their struggle with "optimization addiction" - postponing experiences like concerts and travel while continuing to accumulate unnecessary wealth.

This episode delivers practical wisdom on finding balance between financial security and life enjoyment. We discuss recommended books for navigating the retirement mindset transition, including Bronnie Ware's "Five Regrets of the Dying" and Arthur Brooks' work on finding purpose in life's second half. For those interested in the technical side, we examine treasury bond strategies during recessionary environments, comparing performance across different instruments.

Perhaps most valuably, we explore how to select meaningful charitable causes that align with your skills and passions. The Father McKenna Center campaign illustrates how financial independence can create opportunities for impact beyond personal wealth.

Ready to shift from obsessing over your portfolio to embracing life's experiences? This episode might just give you the perspective shift you need. Remember: winning the financial game is just the beginning – learning to actually play it is where true fulfillment begins.

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In this episode we celebrate some milestones and answer emails from Amy and John.  We discuss the 10-year anniversary of Portfolio Charts, our one millionth download and Mary's good news about her CASA work.  Then we talk about the parable of the Starfish Thrower, go on requested rant about personal finance hoarding cultures and financially privileged people looking for pats on the head and their willing AUM facilitators, and talk about how real happiness and legacies are created.

And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Portfolio Charts 10-year Anniversary Post:  Celebrating 10 Years of Portfolio Charts – Portfolio Charts

Narrative Psychology:  How to tell stories that give you meaning | Jane Goodall, Terry Crews & Dan McAdams

Parable of the Starfish Thrower:  Starfish Story (aka The Star Thrower)

ChooseFI Pod #508:  508 | 5% SWR, Revealed Preferences, and the 3 Stories | Frank Vasquez

Bringing Up The Baileys:  Melissa Bailey (@bringingupthebaileys_) • Instagram photos and videos

Come And Get It:  Comeandgetit | Facebook

Breathless AI-Bot Summary:

What does it mean to create a meaningful legacy? Is it the money you leave behind, or something far more valuable that transcends financial wealth?

As we celebrate our millionth podcast download and the 10th anniversary of Portfolio Charts—a revolutionary tool that transformed how DIY investors analyze diverse assets—we're reflecting on what truly matters in personal finance and beyond. The real highlight comes from Mary's work as a Court Appointed Special Advocate, where after three years of dedicated advocacy for five children in foster care, four were adopted into the same loving home. This embodiment of the "Starfish Thrower" parable reminds us that while we can't save everyone, making a difference for even one person creates ripples of meaningful change.

We take a hard look at the wealth inequality permeating financial media, where those with millions often dominate conversations while seeking validation for their already-secure positions. This echo chamber creates distorted priorities and revealed preferences toward death-focused wealth accumulation rather than life-focused enjoyment. In contrast, we share the story of Melissa—a woman who overcome tremendous hardships including foster care and the loss of a child, yet leads a joy-filled life despite financial constraints. Her legacy isn't measured in money but in traditions passed between generations while everyone is still alive.

Our portfolio reviews show mostly positive performance across various investment strategies, but the numbers pale in comparison to the real message: wealth isn't just what you have, but what you do with it. Whether you're struggling financially or blessed with abundance, your impact on others will always be your most valuable asset.

Join us as we explore what it means to live richly—not just by accumulating wealth, but by creating meaning. How will you throw your starfish today?

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In this episode we celebrate Ozzy Osbourne and answer emails from Iron Tony, Ben and Robbin.  We discuss some of the charts at Portfolio Charts and some related research, the unexpected problems of complex trusts and the value of simplifying estate planning by giving money away while you are alive and balancing treasury bonds, gold, and equity allocations to create resilient portfolios.

If you'd like to move to the front of the email line, please consider donating to the Father McKenna Center at fathermckennacenter.org or through the support page at riskparityradio.com.

Links:

Portfolio Charts Page O' Charts:  Charts – Portfolio Charts

Portfolio Charts Golden Ratio Article:  Beautiful Constants and the Golden Ratio Portfolio – Portfolio Charts

Jim Sandidge Chaos Paper:  RMJ081-ChaosAndRetirementSecurity.pdf

Dana Anspach Presentation (watch minutes 17 - 59):  How to Turn Investments into a Retirement Paycheck in 2023

Testfolio Comparison of TLT and VGLT:  https://testfol.io/analysis?s=dGUGRbj009N

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Season 6 kicks off with a deep dive into the powerful analytical tools at Portfolio Charts that can transform how you evaluate investment strategies. Frank unpacks essential charts like Withdrawal Rates and Drawdowns, revealing why understanding a portfolio's behavior during market stress matters more than chasing maximum returns. Through clear explanations and vivid analogies, he demonstrates how risk parity approaches function as the Toyota 4Runners of investment strategies—reliable, versatile, and designed for challenging conditions.

The conversation shifts to a listener's complex trust situation, sparking a thoughtful examination of estate planning pitfalls. Frank offers a compelling perspective on legacy planning: rather than creating elaborate structures meant to preserve wealth indefinitely, consider simpler approaches that benefit heirs during your lifetime and avoid unintended family conflicts. His personal approach of allocating roughly 1% of his annual portfolio withdrawals to giving provides a practical model for balancing financial security with meaningful impact.

Finally, Frank addresses portfolio construction fundamentals, explaining why Treasury bonds serve as essential "recession insurance" and how to balance them with other assets like gold and equities. He emphasizes that even historically strong performers like gold can experience decade-long drawdowns, reinforcing the need for true diversification across asset classes that respond differently to varying economic conditions.

Whether you're new to risk parity investing or refining your existing strategy, this episode delivers valuable insights for creating a resilient portfolio designed to weather market uncertainty while supporting your long-term financial goals. Have questions about your own investment approach? Send them to [email protected] or use the contact form at riskparityradio.com.

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In this shocking, season-ending episode we answer an email from another generous and Nameless listener regarding a levered portfolio for Nameless, Jr., their omnipotent baby in waiting.  We also have fun with Fibonacci numbers. 

And THEN we do our annual rebalancings of the first four sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.  And we also do our weekly portfolio reviews.

Additional Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Bigger Pockets Money Podcast #1:  The Secret to a 5% Safe Withdrawal Rate | Frank Vasquez

Bigger Pockets Money Podcast #2:  We Built a 5% SWR Retirement Portfolio Using Fidelity in 48 Minutes (Golden Ratio Portfolio)

All Seasons Portfolio Write-Up:  All Seasons Portfolio – Portfolio Charts

Golden Butterfly Portfolio Write-Up:  Golden Butterfly Portfolio – Portfolio Charts

Golden Ratio Portfolio Write-Up:  Golden Ratio Portfolio – Portfolio Charts

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

A foolish consistency may be the hobgoblin of little minds, but financial consistency through strategic portfolio rebalancing is the cornerstone of successful long-term investing. Welcome to Episode 439 of Risk Parity Radio, where we're tackling our annual portfolio rebalancing ritual with a healthy blend of investment wisdom and pop culture quips.

After sharing highlights from recent appearances on the BiggerPockets Money podcast where I guided host Mindy through constructing a risk parity portfolio using the golden ratio, we dive into an extraordinary listener story. TheNamelessOne made a mathematically beautiful donation of $5,321.10 to the Father McKenna Center—a reverse Fibonacci sequence that brilliantly connects to our golden ratio portfolio construction methods.

The market snapshot reveals gold shining brightest in 2023, up over 27% year-to-date, significantly outperforming both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. This performance pattern creates the perfect scenario for demonstrating the discipline of rebalancing—systematically selling high (primarily gold across all portfolios) and buying low (particularly Treasury bonds and small cap value).

Each of our four sample portfolios gets the rebalancing treatment, with the Golden Butterfly standing tall at 43.16% return since inception while maintaining sleep-at-night stability. For those fascinated by the mathematical underpinnings, I explore how the Fibonacci sequence approaches the golden ratio (approximately 1.618), creating natural proportions that translate beautifully to portfolio construction.

Beyond the standard portfolios, we venture into experimental leveraged territory—not recommended for beginners but fascinating for understanding how different approaches perform through market cycles. The stark contrast between our worst performer (Aggressive 50-50, down 11.37% since inception) and our best (Golden Butterfly) offers powerful lessons in risk management.

Whether you're a math enthusiast, movie quote afficionado, or serious DIY investor, this episode delivers practical rebalancing strategies while maintaining that distinctive Risk Parity Radio blend of education and entertainment. Your portfolio might march to the beat of a different drummer, but that's precisely what makes risk parity so fascinating.

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In this episode we answer emails from Brian, Gary and Rob.  We discuss the foibles of follies of attempting to market-time gold, the fundamental problems of trying to use TIPS as inflation "hedges" in a diversified portfolio and the limited circumstances in which they make sense, introducing children to financial topics, and tax considerations in making portfolio transitions.

Please remember to check out our alternative website design by clicking "Alt Site" at the top right of riskparityradio.com and send your feedback to [email protected].

Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Bill Bernstein TIPS Ladder Article  ("A bond fund manager recently related to me his difficulty in figuring out the role of TIPS in his portfolios. After fumbling for a reply, I realized that he was right: like Social Security, they don’t occupy a formal slot in most folks’ asset allocation."):  Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor Perspectives

Once Upon A FI Book:  Once Upon a FI by Paul Mollenkopf | Discover Financial Wisdom Today

Analysis of LTPZ (-31.68% in 2022 -- "that's not an improvement!"):  LTPZ – PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS ETF – ETF Stock Quote | Morningstar

Breathless AI-Bot Summary:

Ever found yourself frozen by investment indecision? In this illuminating mailbag episode, we tackle three pressing questions from listeners who've generously supported the Father McKenna Center.

First, we address the common dilemma of gold market timing. When prices seem high, should you wait for a pullback or stick to your long-term plan? The answer lies not in crystal ball predictions but in understanding the purpose gold serves in your portfolio across decades, not months. Rather than trying to outsmart the market, consider transitioning gradually into your desired allocation—whether that means buying now or implementing a systematic approach over time.

The conversation then pivots to one of investing's most misunderstood instruments: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Despite their reputation as inflation hedges, the data tells a different story. We examine why TIPS have consistently disappointed during both inflationary and deflationary environments, dragging portfolios down precisely when protection was most needed. For investors seeking genuine inflation buffers, we explore alternatives that have historically outperformed during inflationary periods, including managed futures, commodities, and certain equity sectors.

Perhaps most valuable is our discussion about raising financially literate children. Rather than forcing concepts on uninterested young minds (a strategy that often backfires), we suggest meeting children where they are developmentally. From opening teen brokerage accounts to creating opportunities for learning about buyer's remorse with small amounts of money, these practical approaches help children develop healthy relationships with finances without overwhelming them.

We conclude with tax-efficient portfolio rebalancing strategies, demonstrating how to reduce overconcentrated positions without triggering massive tax bills. By identifying specific tax lots, directing new investments strategically, and managing dividend reinvestments, investors can gradually transform their allocations while minimizing the tax impact.

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