In this episode we answer an email from Daniel, who asks a follow-up question to episode 209 about CAPE ratios and Big ERN's blog.  We then recount a Zoom chat and email exchanges between the host and Karsten Jeske about that topic and related ones and an analysis of a sample risk-parity style portfolio using the Early Retirement Now SWR Toolbox.  It's similar to "Celebrity Deathmatch" in entertainment value.

We also talk briefly about Risk Parity Chronicles, The upcoming EconoMe Conference with Diania Merriam and the upcoming event at the Father McKenna Center.

Links ("the best links, the best"):

Father McKenna Center Lessons and Carols Event Link:  Lessons and Carols - Father McKenna Center

Risk Parity Chronicles:  Risk Parity Chronicles

EconoMe Conference:  EconoMe Conference - March 17th-19th, 2023

Early Retirement Now SWR Toolbox:  An Updated Google Sheet DIY Withdrawal Rate Toolbox (SWR Series Part 28) – Early Retirement Now

Safe Withdrawal Series Part 34:  Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now

Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2014:  Shiller PE: Bad Market Timing, Good Retirement Planning (kitces.com)

Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2016:  Reducing Retirement Return Assumptions For High Valuation? (kitces.com)

Kitces Critique of November 2021 Morningstar Forecasts Report:  Can Morningstar's Withdrawal Rate Report Refute The 4% Rule? (kitces.com)

Morningstar 2011 Article About Predicting the Next Decade (classic misuse of P/E ratios):  Your Forecasts for Stock and Bond Returns | Morningstar

Early Retirement Now Small-Cap and Value Blogpost:  My thoughts on Small-Cap and Value Stocks – Early Retirement Now

Early Retirement Now Options Strategy Blogpost:  Passive income through option writing: Part 8 – A 2021 Update – Early Retirement Now

The Market Huddle Podcast re Bloomberg Analysis:  To Survive Disasters, You Need Smiles (guest: Steve Hou) - Market Huddle Ep.201 - YouTube

Bloomberg Presentation:  MH201-SteveHou-Bloomberg.pdf (markethuddle.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Jamie, Chris and The Dude (Alexi).  We give do some listener appreciation and talk about The Dude's proposed volatility-related allocation.

And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.  

And we also invite you to an event at the Father McKenna Center in Washington, DC -- Lessons and Carols on December 8 at 7 pm.

Additional links:

Father McKenna Center Lessons and Carols:  Lessons and Carols - Father McKenna Center

Jamie's Article re Luck and Success:  Winning a Nobel Prize Takes Luck as Much as Talent - WSJ

The Dude's Proposed Volatility Allocation:  7% CCOR, 5% YCS, 5% EUO and 3% VIXM (20% overall allocation).

CCOR fund page:  CCOR ETF | Core Alt Capital (corealtfunds.com)

Correlation Matrix with Alexi's Funds and BTAL:  Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Backtest using Alexi's volatility allocations:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Gregory, MyContactInfo, Ralphio and Spencer.  We discuss the overriding currency speculation aspect of investing in non-U.S. funds, keeping things simple during accumulation, leveraged funds, some academic analyses of managed funds and what to make of it, how to identify the basic factors of given funds and the Shplendid aspects of MORE COWBELL.

Links:

Paul Merriman's "Best in Class" Fund Identification Page:  Best-in-Class ETF Portfolios - Paul Merriman

Rational Reminder Leveraged Portfolios Video:  Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube

Rational Reminder Interview of Professors Berk and Binsbergen:  Episode 220: Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen: The Arithmetic of Active Management, Revisited — Rational Reminder

Berk and Binsbergen 2014 Paper re Active Management:  delivery.php (ssrn.com)

Rational Reminder Interview of Eduardo Repetto of Avantis:  Episode 228: Eduardo Repetto: Deep Dive with Avantis Investors' CIO — Rational Reminder

Rick Ferri Interview of Eduardo Repetto of Avantis:  Episode 43: Bogleheads on Investing – guest Eduardo Repetto, host Rick Ferri – Rick Ferri, CFA

Morningstar Analysis of IJR:  IJR – Portfolio – iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | Morningstar

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In this episode we answer emails from Nick, Mr. Harris and Howard.  We discuss the hoary details of the tax reporting of GLDM, following your rebalancing rules and why relying on the past performance of managed mutual funds probably is not a good idea.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.  With rebalancing this week!

Additional links:

Father McKenna Center Giving Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Optimal Rebalancing Article:  Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)

SPIVA Report for 2021:  SPIVA U.S. Year-End 2021 Scorecard (spglobal.com)

Morningstar Analyzer -- PRWCX:  PRWCX – Portfolio – T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation | Morningstar

Portfolio Visualizer Comparison Analyses of PRWCX:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Uday, Rick,  Anderson and Jacques.  We discuss Giving Tuesday and the Father McKenna Center, new tutorials at Risk Parity Chronicles about asset swaps and wash sales, buffered ETFs and scandalous structured products, why we still love gold (a little), getting exposure to small cap value -- yada, yada, yada -- and bond ladders vs. bond funds.

Links:

Father McKenna Center Homepage:  Home - Father McKenna Center

Father McKenna Center Giving Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Risk Parity Chronicles Asset Swap Post And Tutorials:  Risk Parity Basics: Asset Swaps and the Important Wash Sale Rule (riskparitychronicles.com)

Analysis of Buffered Fund BSEP:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Portfolio Charts "Ingredients" Article:  Three Secret Ingredients of the Most Efficient Portfolios – Portfolio Charts

Morningstar Analyzer:  VEXMX – Portfolio – Vanguard Extended Market Index Investor | Morningstar

Ben Carlson Article:  Owning Individual Bonds vs. Owning a Bond Fund (awealthofcommonsense.com)

Finance Buff Article:  Two Types of Bond Ladders: When to Replace a Bond Fund or ETF (thefinancebuff.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Ethan, Eric, MyContactInfo and Jon.   We discuss using the Golden Ratio portfolio for intermediate accumulations, Hedgehogs and Foxes in economic forecasting, total bond funds, momentum factor investing and Frankie Goes To Hollywood.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.  With rebalancing this week!

Additional links:

Wealthtrack Interview of Jim Grant:  INFLATION’S DAMAGE: FINANCIAL CONSEQUENCES & INVESTMENT STRATEGIES WITH HISTORIAN JAMES GRANT : WealthTrack

Flirting With Models Podcast with Andrew Beer (DBMF):  Flirting with Models: Andrew Beer - Replicating Hedge Fund Beta (S5E9) (libsyn.com)

Bogleheads Forum Link on Total Bond Funds:  Bogle said 75% Total Bond and 25% Investment Grade Corp. Bond? - Bogleheads.org

Fama on Momentum Article (I found it!):  Fama on Momentum (aqr.com)

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In this episode we answer questions from Brad, Craig, AnnieMous, and Jack.   We discuss new information from Portfolio Charts about tax-loss harvesting bond funds like TLT (and other funds), portfolio construction with the Golden Ratio, the recent popularity of managed futures with the info-sales and marketing crowd, portfolio management with asset swapping between taxable and tax-protected accounts, and REITs in the Portfolio Charts Portfolio Finder.

Links:

Portfolio Charts Tax Loss Harvesting Article:  Harvesting the Fall: Why I Sold All My Bonds – Portfolio Charts

Buffett's Alpha Paper:  Buffett’s Alpha (tandfonline.com)

Brad's Portfolio Construction Article:  How to Balance a Portfolio - (breakingthemarket.com)

Brad's Other Article:  Breaking the Market University -

Portfolio Charts Portfolio Finder:  PORTFOLIO FINDER – Portfolio Charts

Early Retirement Now SWR Spreadsheet Tool Article and Link:  An Updated Google Sheet DIY Withdrawal Rate Toolbox (SWR Series Part 28) – Early Retirement Now

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In this episode we answer emails from Blake, Gen and MyContactInfo.   We discuss Blake's good work with analysis tools, fractional shares of ETFs and more on managed futures and DBMF. 

And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Blake's Model Portfolios:  Model-Portfolios-for-Every-Financial-Stage-v2.pdf (pathwaytofi.com)

Blake's White Paper:  Construction-and-Analysis-of-the-Pathway-to-FI-Model-Portfolios-v2.pdf (pathwaytofi.com)

Portfolio Charts Risk/Reward Calculator:   RISK AND RETURN – Portfolio Charts

Portfolio Visualizer Asset Correlation Analyzer:  Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

MyContactInfo Links to Andrew Beer/DBMF podcast:  The Investors First Podcast: Andrew Beer, Dynamic Beta Investments: Replicating Hedge funds in an ETF Wrapper on Apple Podcasts

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In this episode we return from vacation ready to rumble and answer emails from Peter, David, MyContactInfo (x2) and Mark.   We appreciate our listeners and then annoy them (I've got an angle), talk about ESG investing and why you want to have both growth and value funds and talk about buy-write funds in general and JEPI in particular.

Links:

Risk Parity Chronicles Resources:  Resources - Risk Parity Chronicles

ESG Article One:  Shades of Green - HumbleDollar

ESG Article Two:  Musings on Markets: ESG's Russia Test: Trial by Fire or Crash and Burn? (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com)

Backtest of 50/50 Value/Growth vs. Total Market:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Asset Correlation Matric for JEPI:  Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Harvey (a large rodent), MyContactInfo and Mark.  We discuss the Dragon Portfolio and managed futures funds like DBMF, reprise Episode 202,  some common mistakes of amateur investors, reverse mortgages (briefly), and how we have incorporated and modified classic and theoretical risk parity principles.

Links:

Recent Interview of Andrew Beer (DBMF):  214 Systematic Investor Series ft. Andrew Beer – October 16th, 2022 | Top Traders Unplugged

Harvey's First Link re Dragon Portfolio:  How to Build a Recession-Proof Investment Portfolio (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole) - YouTube

Harvey's Second Link re Dragon Portfolio:  How to Build the Dragon Portfolio - YouTube

In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio book:  In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest by Andrew W. Lo (goodreads.com)

CFA Manual Chapter re Risk Parity:  chapter-4-from-managing-multiasset-strategies-2018.pdf (callan.com)

Early Retirement Now Gold Study:  Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now

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