Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer a loooooong email from Kevin.   We discuss how to use backtesting and Monte Carlo simulations and how they related to safe and perpetual withdrawal rates, classic and modified Risk Parity-style portfolios, assorted variables and metrics, sizing allocations, Kevin's overall portfolio.  And conclude with Monty Python and Kevin singing.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Early Retirement Now Toolbox with Over 100 Years of Data:  An Updated Google Sheet DIY Withdrawal Rate Toolbox (SWR Series Part 28) - Early Retirement Now

Ray Dalio Holy Grail Principle Video:  Ray Dalio breaks down his "Holy Grail" - YouTube

Michael Kitces Risk Parity Article:  Microsoft Word - Kitces Report November-December 2013 - RISK PARITY - FINAL

Bill Bernstein TIPS Ladder Article:  Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor Perspectives

Wealth of Common Sense Article re the Epidemic of Over-saving:  You Probably Need Less Money Than You Think For Retirement - A Wealth of Common Sense

Walk4McKenna Sign-up Page:  Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center

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In this episode we answer emails from Chas, MyContactInfo and JDM.  We discuss momentum-based funds and strategies (see also Episodes 218, 231 and 234), the inherent difficulties of trying to use GDP and other macro-economic data to make investing decisions and the basics of implementing a Golden Butterfly portfolio.

Links:

AQR Article -- Fama on Momentum:  Fama on Momentum (aqr.com)

Interview of Professor Fama:  INVESTORS FROM THE MOON: FAMA (top1000funds.com)

Chas' Asset Correlation Analysis:   Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

VIOV vs. XSVM vs. DFSVX:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Swedroe Article re GDP and Emerging Markets:   Is there a link between GDP growth and emerging market returns? | TEBI (evidenceinvestor.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Kyle, Blake and Matt.  We discuss investing in a 457 plan with a self-directed option, Blake's gambling problem -- err, very interesting leveraged portfolio, and how to evaluate RIAs through their SEC filings as applied to Lido.

Links:

Analysis of Total Market vs. 60/20/20 vs. Large cap/small cap value portfolios:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Michael Kitces article re Four Phases of Retirement Planning:  The Four Phases Of Saving For Retirement (kitces.com)

Lido Firm Brochure (Part 2A of SEC Form ADV):  crd_iapd_Brochure.aspx (sec.gov)

OASDX:  OASDX – Oakhurst Strategic Defined Risk Instl Fund Stock Price | Morningstar

Walk4McKenna:  Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center

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In this episode we answer emails from Chas, Keith and Fritz.  We discuss the new Asset Camp tool offered by David Stein, basic issues of leverage (listen also Episodes 258 and 259) and the recent performance of long term treasury bonds.

Links:

Asset Camp:   Asset Camp - Asset Camp

Ben Carlson blog post:  Everything & Everyone Underperforms Eventually - A Wealth of Common Sense

Rational Reminder video about leverage:  Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube

Optimized Portfolios -- Beating the market with leverage:  How To Beat the Market Using Leverage and Index Investing (optimizedportfolio.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Jimmy, John and MyContactInfo.  We discuss the foibles of trying to make investment decisions based on news, politics or macro-economic events, Joel Greenblatt's investment methodologies re value-weighting from 2010 and where there are today, and learn some more from Professor Aswath Damodaran about why you cannot use market valuation metrics and P/E ratios as a basis for decision-making in investing.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Truflation -- Realtime Inflation Data:  Independent, economic & financial data in real time on-chain (truflation.com)

Daniela Di Martino Video re Jay Powell and Truflation:  Ted Oakley and DiMartino Booth on Fed policy, employment implications, and debt implications - YouTube

Hugh Hendry and Jim Bianco debating Interest Rates and Inflation:  Macro Musings with Jim Bianco (preview) - YouTube

Value-Weighted Indexing Site (circa 2011):  Value Weighted Index – A New Approach to Long-Term Investing

Gotham Funds (Greenblatt Managed):  Home Page : Gotham (gothamfunds.com)

Portfolio Visualizer Backtest of GVALX:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Professor Damodaran's Latest And Greatest:  Musings on Markets: The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor! (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Mark, Wesley and Tom.  We make fun of the host and talk about his personality traits and the Big Five personality test, Wesley's portfolio and the new managed futures fund, CTA, and a question about the historical performance about stocks in Great Britain.

Links:

Revisionist History Podcast re Cliff Asness and Disagreeableness:  Malcolm Gladwell's 12 Rules for Life | Revisionist History | Malcolm Gladwell - YouTube

Big Five Personality Test:  Free open-source BigFive personality traits test - Big Five (bigfive-test.com)

Wesley's Portfolio Backtest:   Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Meb Faber Podcast with Animal Spirits Guys re Managed Futures for Diversification:  Episode #493: Michael Batnick & Ben Carlson - What’s Your Favorite Diversifier? PLUS: Future Proof! - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog

CTA ETF page:  CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | Simplify

KMLM ETF page:  KFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF | KMLM (kfafunds.com)

FRED Data re U.K. Stock Market History:  How has the U.K. stock market fared lo these past 300 years? | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)

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In this episode we answer emails from Kevin, Philip and Brown.  We discuss (and thank) our generous listeners, our three principles -- Simplicity,  Macro-allocation and Holy Grail -- and why they need to work together, using conservative portfolios for accumulation, investing in international funds in a sensible manner to maximize diversification and international currency risks, investing in utilities funds (listen also Episode 27) and property & casualty insurance companies.  Whew!

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Father McKenna Center Main Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Walk4McKenna:  Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center

Holy Grail Principle Video:  Ray Dalio breaks down his "Holy Grail" - YouTube

Portfolio Visualizer Backtest of Utilities vs. REITs vs. P&C Insurance:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Jeff, Micah and Chris.  We discuss some data anomalies of Portfolio Visualizer pertaining to REITs, how to interpret and use Monte Carlo simulations, a more aggressive variation of the Golden Butterfly portfolio (similar to the Weird Portfolio) and the recent performance of the Golden Butterfly portfolio itself.

Links:

Portfolio Visualizer REIT Data:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Micah's Alaskan Golden Butterfly Portfolio:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

The Weird Portfolio:  Weird Portfolio – Portfolio Charts

Portfolio Charts Risk-Return Comparison Analyzer of Your Portfolio vs. 19 Others:  RISK AND RETURN – Portfolio Charts

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In this episode we answer an email from Judy.  We discuss a 2013 Michael Kitces article about risk parity, which aspects we have incorporated and which we have not (and why), and then talk about an interview of William Bernstein about his new book and some related thoughts and ramifications about bonds, crystal balls, annuities and other things.  (Note:  I think I said it was the 4th edition, but its really just the 2d.)

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

2013 Michael Kitces Risk Parity Article:  Microsoft Word - Kitces Report November-December 2013 - RISK PARITY - FINAL

Morningstar Long View Interview of William Bernstein:  Bill Bernstein: Revisiting The Four Pillars of Investing | Morningstar

Morningstar Long View Interview of Aswath Damodaran:  Aswath Damodaran: A Valuation Expert’s Take on Inflation, Stock Buybacks, ESG, and More | Morningstar

Factor Investing Book:  Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing: The Way Smart Money Invests Today by Andrew L Berkin | Goodreads

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In this episode we open up Season Four by answering emails from Pete, Arnold and Igor.  We discuss Pete's slightly levered Golden Ratio type portfolio, TJUL and buffered funds generally and a Portfolio Visualizer anomaly.   It's Shplendid!

Links:

Optimized Portfolio Article re UPRO and other leveraged ETFs:  The 9 Best Leveraged ETFs To Enhance Portfolio Exposure (2023) (optimizedportfolio.com)

EDV and ZROX Comparison:  ZROZ vs. EDV ETF Comparison Analysis | etf.com

Perfect Portfolio Book:  In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest by Andrew W. Lo | Goodreads

Barry Ritholtz Article re TJUL:  My New ETF: 100% of Upside + 0% of Downside - The Big Picture (ritholtz.com)

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