Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we close out Season Three with a discussion of the annual rebalancings we performed last week on four of the Sample Portfolios -- the All Seasons, the Golden Butterfly, the Golden Ratio and the Risk Parity Ultimate.

It's nitty and its gritty.

Link to Portfolios Page:  Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio

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In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo and Stanley.  We discuss a podcast interview of Professor Jean-Phillipe Bouchaud about methods of analyzing complex systems and financial markets and compare investments in small cap blend and small cap value funds.

Links:

Rick Bookstaber podcast interview of  Professor Jean-Phillipe Bouchaud:  Seeking Risk: The Fab Rick Show: The Science of Risk (libsyn.com)

The Origin of Wealth book:  Amazon.com: The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of Economics and What it Means for Business and Society: 9781422121030: Beinhocker, Eric D.: Books

Random Matrix Analysis:  Random matrix - Wikipedia

Dragon Kings Article:  Dragon king theory - Wikipedia

Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Small Cap Blend vs. Small Cap Value:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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In this episode we answer an email from Marcy.  We discuss the modern and extended histories of the FIRE movement,  FIRE movements and FIRE literature of the past from the 19th Century and beyond, the parallels of modern portfolio mistakes with those of FIRE circa 1990, and do a case study of Marcy's FIRE goals and portfolio using Portfolio Visualizer.  (Errata -- I said "21%" for two allocations in the third portfolio when I meant 26%.)

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Local TV News Story on Father McKenna Center:  Father McKenna Center seeks men’s clothing donations in DC – NBC4 Washington (nbcwashington.com)

My 2016 Essay about FIRE:   Prospecting Mimetic Fractals - Prospecting Mimetic Fractals

Quiet Life video:  In Praise of The Quiet Life - YouTube

Ramit Sethi video with the Jensens:  “We achieved FIRE with $4.3M. Why can’t we enjoy it?” | IWT 108 | Ramit Sethi - YouTube

Ramit Sethi with the Mad Fientist:  Ramit Sethi – How to Spend (and Actually Enjoy It) - YouTube

Mad Fientist Blog Post re Ways to Spend More Money:  The Problem with the 4% Rule (and Why You Could Retire Even Sooner) (madfientist.com)

Terhorst's Blog:  Welcome to Paul and Vicki Terhorst’s Perpetual Travel Blog – Paul and Vicki Terhorst’s Perpetual Travel Blog (wordpress.com)

Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Marcy's Proposed Retirement Portfolio:  https://tinyurl.com/bdnmmubh

PV Analysis of RPR Alternative No. 1 (Golden Butterfly):  https://tinyurl.com/bd5dtndd

PV Analysis of RPR Alternative No. 2 (Golden Ratio):  https://tinyurl.com/9fkjx5b9

Portfolio Charts Calculators:  Charts – Portfolio Charts

Recent Interview of Gwen Merz:  Navigating Career Transitions: Gwen Merz's Inspiring Journey from Corporate Success to Entrepreneur — Earn & Invest (earnandinvest.com)

Diania Merriam:  Diania Merriam: Who the hell am I? - YouTube

Rose Lounsbury Site:  Home - Rose Lounsbury

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In this episode we answer questions from Esek and Jeffrey.  We discuss the difficulties of assessing long term care needs and potential approaches and how RP portfolios differ and are similar to other approaches, such as buffered stock funds.

Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Portfolio Charts Heat Map Calculator:  HEAT MAP – Portfolio Charts

Larry Swedroe Discussing His Personal Portfolio Involving 50% Alternative Assets:  Show Us Your Portfolio: Larry Swedroe - YouTube

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In this episode we answer questions from Shplendid Spencer, Russel and MyContactInfo.  We discuss the pros and cons of online calculators and how they are commonly inadequate and/or misused, why being conservative beyond realistic possibilities is probably not a good idea overall, and an article by Aswath Damodaran about Nvidia, the chip industry and the implications of AI for DIY investing.  CORRECTION:  I said the Heat Map calculator was at Portfolio Visualizer -- it's actually at Portfolio Charts at the link below.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Spencer's Tool Link:  Rich, Broke or Dead? Post-Retirement FIRE Calculator: Visualizing Early Retirement Success and Longevity Risk - Engaging Data (engaging-data.com)

Similar Portfolio Visualizer Analysis Tool:  Asset Liability Modeling (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Tyler on Security Analysis Podcast:   Tyler (@PortfolioCharts): The Amazing Power of Uncorrelated Assets (securityanalysis.org)

Portfolio Charts Heat Map Tool:  HEAT MAP – Portfolio Charts

Article on The Top Five Regrets of the Dying:  The Top Five Regrets of the Dying - Wikipedia

List of Cognitive Biases:  The Prospecting Lens - Prospecting Mimetic Fractals

Aswath Damodaran Article:  Musings on Markets: AI's Winners, Losers and Wannabes: An NVIDIA Valuation, with the AI Boost! (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude"), MyContactInfo and Brown.  We discuss passing 500,000 downloads, hi and jinks, the relationship between returns, the projected safe withdrawal rate and the Holy Grail principle, and using Berkshire Hathaway as a basis for portfolio construction.

Links:

Value Stock Geek with Your Truly:  The Security Analysis Podcast: Frank Vasquez - Risk Parity Investing for the DIY Investor on Apple Podcasts

The All Weather Strategy Paper:   Bridgewater Paper 2009.12 AW Info Pack.doc (granicus.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Thurston Howell VI, MyContactInfo and Keith.  We discuss DBMF and managed futures funds generally, my family's rapture with the sport of rowing and how to make basic asset location decisions to minimize taxes.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Barry Ritholtz Interview of Andrew Beer (DBMF) (2021):  Andrew Beer on the Hedge Fund Industry (Podcast) - Masters in Business - Omny.fm

DBMF Web Page:  iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | iMGP Funds

DBMF Current Holdings Link (download):  https://partnerselectfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/Holdings/DBMF-Holdings.xlsx

Taxation of Gold -- CNBC Article with links:  Gold, silver ETF owners face 28% top tax rate on capital gains (cnbc.com)

Asset Swap Tutorial from Justin/Risk Parity Chronicles:  How to Do an Asset Swap - YouTube

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In this episode we answer questions from Pedro, Graham and Nathan.  We discuss creating a Golden Ratio portfolio out of ITOT and other things, what to do about bond fund choices in a TSP and the ins and outs of the VCSAX Consumer Staples Fund.

Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

TSP F Fund Page:  F Fund | The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP)

ITOT Analysis:  ITOT – Portfolio – iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt ETF | Morningstar

Optimal Finance Daily Podcast:  Optimal Finance Daily - Personal Finance Podcast (oldpodcast.com)

Diania Merriam Interview:  Video How 1 woman went from having debt to retiring in 5 years - ABC News (go.com)

VCSAX Analysis:  VCSAX – Portfolio – Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Admiral | Morningstar

Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of  Consumer Staples Fund vs. 80/20 vs. 50/50:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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In this episode we answer questions from MyContactInfo, Anonymous and Arun.  We discuss a podcast and article about the concept of Ergodicity and how to apply it, a variation of the Golden Ratio portfolio from one of our listeners recently discussed in an interview, and the illusory benefits of dividend-paying stocks and related delusions.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

EconTalk Podcast on Ergodicity:  Luca Dellanna on Risk, Ruin, and Ergodicity | EconTalk

Taylor Pearson Article on Ergodicity:  Ergodicity: A Simple Explanation of Ergodic vs. Non-Ergodic (taylorpearson.me)

Picture Perfect Portfolios Article about a Golden Ratio-style portfolio and others:  100% Factor Focused Equities vs Diversification Reigns Supreme (pictureperfectportfolios.com)

Three Ben Felix Videos About the Irrelevance of Dividends:

The Irrelevance of Dividends - YouTube

The Relevance of Dividend Irrelevance - YouTube

Dividend Growth Investing - YouTube

Intel's 2023 Dividend Cut:

Intel cuts dividend to lowest since 2007 to save cash | Reuters

Intel slashes dividend by over 65%, to 12.5 cents (cnbc.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Drew, Barry and Rob.  We discuss an article about investing in gold from Larry Swedroe and how to read it and the articles cited therein correctly, transitioning from a 60/40 portfolio to a risk-parity style portfolio and taking distributions and how to evaluate a pension vs. a lump sum.  Groovy, Baby!

Links:

Swedroe Article:  Misguided Investor Expectations on the Risk and Returns of Gold | Wealth Management

"The Golden Dilemma" Paper:  delivery.php (ssrn.com)

"The Golden Rule of Investing"  Paper:  delivery.php (ssrn.com)

Portfolio Visualizer Correlation Analysis of Swedroe suggestions and gold:  Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

YouTube Interview of Corey Hoffstein about rebalancing timing:  Keeping it Simple Ep. 21: Do I Feel Lucky? | Simplify

Immediate Annuities Calculator/Free Quotes:  Get Your Best Annuity Quote Instantly Online! Without any sales calls. Your phone# is not required. — ImmediateAnnuities.com

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