Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer emails from Jennie, Chris and Visitor 5622.  We discuss Jennie's retirement situation, BTAL and long dollar funds, and VTI musings.   

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Value Stock Geek with Your Truly:  The Security Analysis Podcast: Frank Vasquez - Risk Parity Investing for the DIY Investor on Apple Podcasts

Portfolio Visualizer Financial Goals Sequencer:  Financial Goals (portfoliovisualizer.com)

BTAL Web Page:  AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund | AGF.com

Morningstar Analysis of VTI:  VTI – Portfolio – Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Morningstar

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In this episode we begin with a mini-rant about the THREE free steak dinner invitations we received recently.  Then we answer emails from Drew, Lauren and Joe.  We go over a number of useful links and information about managed futures from Drew following up on Episode 265, talk about Emerson and Jeopardy, and what to do when you reach Financial Independence early at age 39.

Links:

Charlie Munger Misjudgment Speech:  The Psychology of Human Misjudgment - Charlie Munger Full Speech - YouTube

TLDL Shorter Animated Version:  Charlie Munger - 24 Standard Causes of Human Misjudgment in 15 minutes - YouTube

Alpha Architect QVAL Fund Page:  QVAL - Alpha Architect ETFs

AQR's AQMIX Fund Page:  AQR Managed Futures Strategy Fund - AQMIX

Societe Generale CTA Indices Page:  Prime Services (Newedge) Indices (societegenerale.com)

Art of Manliness Podcast About Emerson:  Podcast #904: How Emerson Can Help You Become a Stoic Nonconformist | The Art of Manliness

Value Stock Geek Security Analysis Website:  Security Analysis | Value Stock Geek | Substack

Weird Portfolio Page At Portfolio Charts:  Weird Portfolio – Portfolio Charts

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In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (a/k/a/ "the Dude"), Pete and Dean.  We discuss box spreads, trying to market-time t-bills and interest rates, a whole host of logical fallacies and cognitive biases and a variable preferred shares fund (VRP) and what it does and doesn't do.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Alpha Architect On Box Spreads:  Box Spreads: An Alternative to Treasury Bills? (alphaarchitect.com)

Alpha Architect Paper On Size And Value Tilts:  AA-JBISFactorInvesting22LongOnlyValueInvesting.pdf (alphaarchitect.com)

You Are Not So Smart Fallacy Podcasts (check out ones in the 60s or word search "fallacy"):  Podcast – You Are Not So Smart

Sample Gerd Gigerenzer Lecture:  Risk literacy: Gerd Gigerenzer at TEDxZurich - YouTube

Risk Savvy book:  Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions by Gerd Gigerenzer | Goodreads

Summary of Prospecting Theory and Cognitive Biases:  The Prospecting Lens - Prospecting Mimetic Fractals

Dan Ariely Books:  Books - Dan Ariely

Freakonomics Episode On Slippery Slopes:  Enough with the Slippery Slopes! - Freakonomics

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In this episode we answer emails from George, Danny, and Jamie.  We discuss short-term asset allocations and considerations thereabouts, expense-tracking methodologies (led by Sister Stigmata), and manager-run managed futures funds versus replication-based funds.

Links:

QMHNX Page:  AQR Managed Futures Strategy HV Fund - QMHNX

Podcast Debate about Managed Futures Funds:  246 Systematic Investor Series ft. Andrew Beer & Tim Pickering – June 3rd, 2023 | Top Traders Unplugged

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In this episode we answer emails from Thirsty Horse, Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude") and Mark.  We discuss our charity, assorted Monte Carlo simulations on Portfolio Visualizer and data sources, rebalancing of leveraged portfolios and the choice of leverage (follow up on Episode 259), Flight of the Conchords, and the pitfalls of trying to use valuation metrics as crystal balls.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Become a Patron and Support our Charity:  Risk Parity Radio | creating A Podcast | Patreon

Monte Carlo Analysis of basic Golden Ratio portfolio back to 1994:  https://tinyurl.com/mswkra9c

Monte Carlo Analysis of Golden Ratio portfolio back to the 1970s:  https://tinyurl.com/hzd6xftt

Portfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator: RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts

Michael Kitces Optimized Rebalancing Articles:  Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)

Aswath Damodaran on Long View Podcast:  Aswath Damodaran: A Valuation Expert’s Take on Inflation, Stock Buybacks, ESG, and More | Morningstar

Aswath Damodaran/Equity Risk Premium: Damodaran On-line Home Page (nyu.edu)

Errant 2013 Paper re 4% Rule:  delivery.php (ssrn.com)

Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2014:  Shiller PE: Bad Market Timing, Good Retirement Planning (kitces.com)

Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2016:  Reducing Retirement Return Assumptions For High Valuation? (kitces.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from R.J., Mark and Jaako.  We discuss how amateur investors doing projections often double-count inflation accidently and apply inappropriate tax rates, using low-beta funds in portfolio construction, and ETFs designed to combat inflation in Finland and elsewhere.

Note I misspoke and the USMV low-beta portfolio does better than the two created in Mark's backtests.

Links:

Value Stock Geek's Podcast Interview of Tyler from Portfolio Charts:  Tyler (@PortfolioCharts): The Amazing Power of Uncorrelated Assets (securityanalysis.org)

Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo Simulator:  Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Rational Reminder Interview of Professor Campbell:  Prof. John Y. Campbell: Financial Decisions for Long-term Investors | Rational Reminder 250 - YouTube

Analysis of Low Beta Portfolios:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Mark's Correlation Analysis:  Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Fund Page for Jaako's Fund:   Lyxor EUR 2-10Y Inflation Expectations UCITS ETF - Acc | LYX0U6 | LU1390062245 (justetf.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Bruce, Raymond and Alexi (a/k/a "Dude").  We discuss what we learned from last year about the performance of various assets in a severely rising interest environment, holding a conservative portfolio in accumulation to sleep better and one of the Dude's gambling experiments involving UDOW and TQQQ.

Links:

Updated UNC Paper re Bonds, Flights to Safety and Stock Market Volatility:  SSRN-id1436124.pdf

Portfolio Charts Time to Financial Independence Calculator:   FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE – Portfolio Charts

Alexi's UDOW/TQQQ Analysis:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Long Term Analysis of Total Market vs. 50/50 Large Cap Growth/Value:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo, Mark, Kasey and Eric.  We discuss a Kitces article about managing capital gains tax brackets, some of Mark's favorite episodes -- 208 on ideas for beginning investors and 209 about common safe-withdrawal-rate hysterias, Big ERNs' blog post on personal inflation rates and my response on his site, and the problems of substituting mental accounting about buckets and other things with actual strategies.

Links:

Michael Kitces Article:  The Tax Impact Of The Long-Term Capital Gains Bump Zone (kitces.com)

Early Retirement Now Blog Post:   Accounting for Homeownership in (Early) Retirement– SWR Series Part 57 – Early Retirement Now

2022 Morningstar Report on Withdrawal Strategies:  Six Retirement Withdrawal Strategies that Stretch Savings | Morningstar

Earn & Invest Interview of Christine Benz about the Morningstar Report:  Are Safe Withdrawal Debates Ridiculous — Earn & Invest (earnandinvest.com)

Ben Carlson Post on the inherent Mental Accounting of Bucket Strategies:  The Mental Accounting of Asset Allocation - A Wealth of Common Sense

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In this episode we answer emails from Drew, Carlos and Eric.  We discuss the UPAR and RPAR risk parity ETFs and their construction, rant a bit about TIPS, discuss attractive narratives about de-dollarization in the context of cognitive biases (the possibility effect and ignoring base rates) and how our adult children use a Golden Ratio-style portfolio to save for intermediate goals.

Links:

Father McKenna Center donation page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

UPAR webpage:  UPAR Risk Parity ETF (rparetf.com)

Michael Kitces interview:  Michael Kitces: How Higher Yields Affect Asset Allocation and Retirement Planning | The Long View (simplecast.com)

De-dollarization article:  De-dollarization Has Begun. | AIER

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In this episode we answer emails from Eric (x2), Ron and Jeffrey.  We discuss the EconoMe Conference, my friendship with Diania Merriam, bid/ask spreads at various brokerages, an exquisite analysis of margin leverage vs. leveraged ETFs and the gold/gold miner fund GDMN.

Links:

EconoMe Conference 2024:  EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024

Father McKenna Center Giving Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Ron's Leverage Analysis I:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Ron's Leverage Analysis II:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Article re Margin vs. Leveraged ETFs:  Margin Trading vs. Leveraged ETFs | Cumberland Advisors

Corey Hoffstein Interview About Using Leveraged ETFs:  How to Improve a 100% Stock Portfolio Using Return Stacking w/ Corey Hoffstein (theinvestorspodcast.com)

GDMN ETF webpage:  Global Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy ETF Fund| WisdomTree

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