//The Wire//1700Z February 13, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: FOREIGN AID SPENDING BILL PASSES U.S. SENATE. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Israel continues preparations for operations in Rafah as leaflet drops alongside bombing operations increase in the region. However, due to the location of this border city, there are very few locations for citizens (many of which are already refugees from Gaza City) to evacuate to, raising questions of what comes next.

Red Sea/HOA: The vessel attacked yesterday by Houthi forces has been identified as the M/V STAR IRIS, a Greek-flagged bulk cargo carrier. AC: Details of this attack have been few and far between, compared to previous reports, but CENTCOM did confirm that the two cruise missiles targeting the vessel did result in minor damage, but the vessel is under her own power and continuing her voyage.

Europe: Food shortages continue to cause issues for citizens throughout the continent as widespread protests continue. As before, these shortages are largely the result of a combination of truck drivers protesting by not delivering food to certain grocery store chains, as well as the physical blocking of trade routes and border checkpoints.

-HomeFront-

USA: The impending Israeli invasion of Rafah has reignited protests and demonstrations in the usual cities; mostly Seattle, New York, Washington D.C. etc.

Washington D.C. – In a late-night session, the Senate passed the hotly-debated $95 billion spending bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The bill passed with overwhelming bipartisan support after provisions for funding to counter illegal immigration at the southern US border were removed. The bill now heads to the House for a vote. AC: If passed, this bill nearly doubles the entirety of US tax dollars sent to Ukraine. American taxpayers have sent approximately $113 billion in purely cash payments to Ukraine so far during this war, a figure which does not include hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of military hardware.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though very clearly the demonstrations in Europe are intended to reduce the impact of governance on food production, perhaps contradictorily, food shortages are beginning to become a problem for many throughout more population-dense locations in Europe.

It is important to note that demonstrators are not directly targeting all trade routes, but rather choosing to demonstrate at distribution centers and grocery stores that have become involved in the politics of the climate agenda. This includes preventing the delivery of certain products from certain nations, which negatively impact local agricultural production. For instance, farmers in Spain have been observed destroying truckloads of tomatoes from Morocco as these shipments have been directly related to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which has promoted cheap imports and increased taxes on local production and thus the main reason for the continent-wide protests.

However, the second and third order effects of these demonstrations, in a world where the globalism of trade is the standard, are likely impacting logistics in unintended ways. As demonstrated during the COVID era, food shortages are impossible to predict due to the effects of relying on extremely complex global markets. Virtually zero food in Europe is produced locally to where it is sold. For instance, a prepackaged salad can contain lettuce from Spain, cheese from the Netherlands, tomatoes from Italy, olives from Greece, and so on. This results in complicated problems when a single border checkpoint is impacted, or when a single freight truck is delayed.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1700Z February 12, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: ISRAEL BEGINS BOMBING CAMPAIGN IN RAFAH. SECDEF AUSTIN HOSPITALIZED AGAIN.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Netherlands: This morning, a Dutch court of appeals ruled against the Dutch government, halting the export of all F-35 parts to Israel. Per the court’s ruling, the court found that “It is undeniable that there is a clear risk the exported F-35 parts are used in serious violations of international humanitarian law”. The Dutch government has already filed an appeal of this ruling.

Middle East: Israel begins large-scale bombing operations in Rafah. Combat actions in the north have also increased. Israeli bombing of targets in Lebanese border regions has intensified following weeks of slowly increasing attacks into Lebanon. Hezbollah continues to conduct rocket attacks deep into Israel, as week as regular skirmishes and engagements of Israeli positions and observation posts along the border. In Gaza, the overall situation for the civilian populace is deteriorating severely.

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting continues as before. Last night a commercial vessel was reportedly targeted with two cruise missiles in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. No further information on the success of this attack at this time.

United Kingdom: Following the withdrawal of the HMS DIAMOND from the OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN mission, maintenance issues continue to plague the Royal Navy as the HMS PRINCE OF WALES (R09) fails to participate in NATO exercises off the coast of Norway. The PRINCE OF WALES herself is a backup, intended to replace the HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH (R08) after she suffered propeller shaft problems and therefore was unable to participate in naval exercises. AC: At this point 100% of the Royal Navy aircraft carrier fleet is unable to deploy due to maintenance issues. These two aircraft carriers also represent two-thirds of all aircraft carriers in Europe, with France’s CHARLES DE GAULLE being the only other true aircraft carrier operational throughout the continent.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – SECDEF Lloyd Austin has transferred command to his Deputy, Kathleen Hicks following another emergency hospitalization, allegedly due to a “bladder issue”. Austin remains in a critical care unit at Walter Reed.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though seemingly unimportant, the Dutch ruling to ban the export of F-35 parts is the very first tentative sanction against Israel, from a European nation. The circumstances of this ruling (i.e. the undeniable civilian casualties) have resulted in one of the first official actions to admit what is going on in Gaza, that is not affiliated with any Palestinian movement or political stance. Previous efforts to counter Israel (such as the actions of the International Court of Justice, as per the lawsuit brought by South Africa) have largely been ignored by the western world, as these efforts have clearly originated from political regimes supportive of Palestine (and therefore not the most objective pursuit of justice).

As a reminder, over 1 million displaced residents of Gaza City and Khan Younis have been living in large refugee camps near the Egyptian border following Israeli mandates and evacuations ordering locals to displace to “safe zones” in Rafah. Many leaflets dropped by Israeli forces during the war have explicitly and directly ordered locals to flee to areas south of the Wadi Gaza.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire Weekly Rollup//February 4-10, 2024//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: This week conflict escalated in the form of more substantial attacks, increased U.S. airstrikes in Yemen, and allegedly newly fielded weapons systems. Throughout the week, CENTCOM confirmed U.S. forces regularly engaged Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) that were allegedly being staged for an attack. No additional details were provided regarding this alleged newly-fielded weapons system. On Tuesday, Houthi forces continued their attacks on commercial shipping, targeting two cargo vessels. The M/V STAR NASIA was targeted by several cruise missiles which impacted near the ship causing minor damage. The M/V MORNING TIDE was also targeted with three cruise missiles unsuccessfully.

Middle East: The situation in Gaza, having deteriorated significantly over the past few weeks, has become increasingly more serious following the increase of tensions between Israel and Egypt. These tensions come as Israeli rhetoric increasingly indicates imminent operations in the Philadelphi corridor, on the Egyptian border. Thursday afternoon, Israeli sources announced the commencement of operations in Rafah, ordering the evacuation of the city in advance of the invasion. Similarly in the north, large military “exercises” near the Lebanese border have also exacerbated the situation, and possibly could be an indication of a widening conflict. In response, Egypt has deployed multiple battalions from the 4th Armored Division (of the 3rd Field Army) to the border region.

Europe: Farmer protests continue as before. Including now well over two dozen nations, protests and demonstrations remain highly variable in different locations. In Spain and France, demonstrations are quite kinetic, with police largely not effective in reducing the impact of protesters actions.

Switzerland: A 32-year-old Iranian asylum applicant armed with an ax held 15 people hostage on a train in Yverdon Wednesday night. After several hours of negotiation, the assailant was shot by police breaching the train. No hostages were injured during the ordeal.

-HomeFront-

CA: Early Wednesday morning a USMC CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter went missing in transit from Creech Air Force Base in Nevada to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar. SAR efforts were challenging due to weather conditions and the rugged terrain in the vicinity of the aircraft’s last reported position. Thursday, rescue teams located the crash site in Pine Valley, and recovered the remains of all 5 crew members. No further details have been provided on the cause or exact location of the crash.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In 2024, a “red line” issued by an Arab state doesn’t mean too much, but the Egyptian response to the situation in Rafah will largely be dependent on Israel’s actions. Egyptian forces already have deployed a few dozen tanks to the border region, but there are few indications that Egypt seeks to initiate conflict, despite previous claims. However, as the US has dispatched the CIA director to conduct yet another visit to Egypt, the arrival of the harbinger of nothing good is likely to increase tensions as intended.

A complicating factor is the characterization of the tensions between Israel and the Arab world. For instance, on the face, relations with all Arab states suffered due to the Israeli occupation of Gaza. However, behind the scenes (and away from the rhetoric), many Arab states have taken efforts to aid Israel. For instance, a joint project between Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE includes the creation of an overland trade route to allow shipping companies to avoid the Red Sea trade route, and allow for the delivery of cargo to Israel. Over the past few days (and very quietly), cargo vessels have been observed leaving Port Said in Egypt, and delivering 

//The Wire//1630Z February 10, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: ISRAEL PREPARES FOR INVASION OF RAFAH, EGYPT RESPONDS BY POSTURING.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Israel continues to prepare for large scale combat operations in Rafah. In response, Egypt has deployed multiple battalions from the 4th Armored Division (of the 3rd Field Army) to the border region. Israeli forces also continue to stage in the North, and operations continue in Gaza City and Khan Younis as before.

Red Sea/HOA: The U.S. continues to conduct (now) routine strikes in Yemen, allegedly targeting cruise missiles readying to launch, and alleged Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs). Yemeni attacks against commercial shipping have waned over the past couple of days as most cargo bound for western ports has diverted from the region. Local traffic, or traffic bound for ports not affiliated with the US or western Europe, remains unaffected. However, more direct attacks on US Navy forces in the region have increased as Yemeni forces take advantage of any targets of opportunity that they deem to be valid for engagement.

Far East: Chinese airspace incursions continue over the Taiwan Strait as Taiwanese Defense Forces detect 8 reconnaissance balloons in Taiwanese airspace. This continues the slow, but steady increase in Chinese operations in the vicinity of Taiwan.

-HomeFront-

TX: Border crisis continues as before. Despite a lack of mainstream media coverage, the planned demonstrations in the vicinity of the southern US border have been ongoing for several days. The main effort has been via the “Take Our Border Back” convoy, which has made several stops at varying venues in the border region. 

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Despite the claims to the contrary, it is unlikely that Egypt will take any deliberate action (beyond posturing) unless the border itself is breached (which is unlikely to happen). Israel will likely take some time to prepare for operations in Rafah, which will also stretch thin forces already committed to Gaza City, Khan Younis, and the West Bank and northern border region with Lebanon.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2230Z February 9, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: SITUATION IN GAZA DETERIORATING. FARMER PROTESTS CONTINUE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: The situation in Gaza, having deteriorated significantly over the past few weeks, has become increasingly more serious following the increase of tensions between Israel and Egypt. These tensions come as Israeli rhetoric increasingly indicates imminent operations in areas close to the Egyptian border. This afternoon, Israeli sources have announced the commencement of operations in Rafah, ordering the evacuation of the city in advance of the invasion. Similarly in the north, large military “exercises” near the Lebanese border have also exacerbated the situation, and possibly could be an indication of a widening conflict.

Europe: Farmer protests continue as before. Including now well over two dozen nations, protests and demonstrations remain highly variable in different locations. In Spain and France, demonstrations are quite kinetic, with police largely not effective in reducing the impact of protesters actions. In Italy demonstrations continue consistently, and in Wales demonstrations remain fairly docile as protests begin to get underway.

Switzerland: A 32 year old Iranian asylum applicant armed with an ax held 15 people hostage on a train in Yverdon last night. After several hours of negotiation, the assailant was shot by police breaching the train. No hostages were injured during the ordeal.

-HomeFront-

HI: An earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 6.3 has struck the Big Island. No word yet on any additional concerns.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though information warfare has become staggering at this point in the war, Israeli intentions to occupy the Philadelphi corridor are quite clear. Following announcements of evacuations being ordered for the city of Rafah this afternoon, it is certain that Israel intends to occupy the city. Both of these events have been described as “red line” issues for Egypt. In the North, indications and warnings are stacking up, pointing to possible Israeli actions in Lebanon. A large buildup of forces has been observed in the north along the border, but it is unclear as to if this is a textbook military deception tactic (possible a Feint, or more likely a Display). Though opening up additional geographically-opposing fronts at a time where the vast majority of Israeli forces are bogged down in urban warfare is not generally in keeping with good military strategy, it is possible that Netanyahu may bite off more than he can chew, with the intent of forcing more direct US involvement. The other possibility is that Israel knows a war with Lebanon and/or Egypt would be utterly devastating, and as such are dangling this threat as a way of obtaining more support. Either way, this is a serious gamble.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z February 8, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: USMC HELICOPTER FOUND IN CALIFORNIA, NO SURVIVORS REPORTED.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: The U.S. conducted multiple airstrikes in Baghdad overnight, targeting senior leadership of local Kataib Hezbollah brigades. This is a continuation of the sporadic strikes that have been conducted in the region since the attack on the US Tower 22 base in Jordan.

Far East: Taiwanese and American tensions with China have escalated following the quiet announcement that the U.S. will permanently station Special Forces troops at observation posts on the islands of Kinmen and Matsu. These troops will be supporting the Taiwanese 101st Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion.

Europe: Widespread protests continue as before. In Spain, demonstrators have begun blocking distribution centers for grocery store chains affiliated with the climate agenda. This follows protesters in France using agricultural equipment to dig up the pavement in grocery store parking lots that have pledged support for climate policies.

-HomeFront-

CA: The search has concluded for TIGER11, the CH-53E that went down early yesterday morning. Rescue teams have located the crash site in Pine Valley, and have begun recovering the remains of all 5 crew members. No further details have been provided on the cause or exact location of the crash.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Despite much thought to the contrary, Taiwan is not merely one island many miles off the coast of mainland China. Taiwan has claimed several of the very small islands immediately off the coast of the mainland. For instance, Kinmen Island is located in the heart of Weitou Bay, which is host to a major Chinese logistics hub and the nearby city of Xiamen. The Mashan Observation Post (where US Forces are stationed) is literally two miles from the Chinese mainland. For reference, Ellis Island is about a mile from Manhattan. Though this observation post has been operational for many years (as a propaganda broadcast station), the public admittance of a permanent US presence will likely lead to increased tensions in the region.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1730Z February 7, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUTHI ATTACKS CONTINUE. USMC HELICOPTER MISSING NEAR SAN DIEGO.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

CA: A USMC CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter has gone missing in transit from Creech Air Force Base in Nevada to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar. SAR efforts are underway as an initial search of the last reported position yielded no results. Ground crews have also been delayed due to the extreme weather conditions (and rugged terrain) in the area that the aircraft went missing in.

AC: According to open-source ADS-B tracking data, TIGER11 was last observed flying over Cleveland National Forest IVO 11SNS5380026563, cruising at a speed of 113 kts, on a bearing of 323 degrees. Though it is too early to determine precise details regarding this incident, in the interest of expediency, it is possible that ADS-B data indicates the CH-53E was on a collision course with a ridgeline IVO 11SNS5363826791. Again, not knowing details, a possible search area is likely to include the drainage on the following side of the ridge, IVO 11SNS5340427122, as well as the wooded area on the valley floor IVO 11SNS5320427393.

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi forces continue their attacks on commercial shipping, targeting two cargo vessels yesterday. The M/V STAR NASIA was targeted by several cruise missiles which impacted near the ship causing minor damage. The M/V MORNING TIDE was also targeted with three cruise missiles unsuccessfully.

The Royal Navy has decided to withdraw the HMS DIAMOND from theatre. Official statements suggest this is for maintenance reasons following a few months of combat service. The DIAMOND was the only Royal Navy vessel contributing to the American OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN and will be replaced by the HMS RICHMOND.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As the timing of the HMS DIAMOND’s replacement appears to be early, speculation remains as to the true reason of this replacement. Yemeni forces claim to have damaged the vessel, owing to the early withdrawal. However, Houthi forces claim to sink almost every vessel in theatre, so this source is unreliable at best and no information corroborates these claims. What is more likely is that the toll paid by brief combat service against a largely insurgent force using improvised weapons is more than the Type 45 Destroyer program can maintain, especially following years of scandal related to their combat effectiveness.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z February 6, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUTHI TARGETING CONTINUES IN RED SEA. BORDER CRISIS CONTINUES AT HOME.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Yesterday, CENTCOM confirmed U.S. forces engaged 2x Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs) that were allegedly being staged for an attack. No additional details were provided regarding this alleged newly-fielded weapons system. AC: It is also unclear what intelligence indicated these vessels were intended to be USVs or if these were simply unoccupied vessels. The use of USVs would be an expected escalation to be relied upon by Houthi forces, but it is unclear as to if this incident is an accurate representation of this potential escalation.

Yemeni forces meanwhile continue operations to target what few Western commercial shipping vessels attempt to transit the Red Sea. Cruise missile and kamikaze drone attacks have dwindled following the grand transition of most shipping to the Cape Route. However, Houthi attacks on U.S. Navy vessels continue regularly, as do attacks on any vessel that does not abide by Yemeni transit procedures. This morning, unidentified personnel aboard a small craft attacked a commercial vessel with a possible RPG in the southern Red Sea.

-HomeFront-

TX: Yesterday a consortium of conservative Governors assembled for various press events in Eagle Pass. This event comes as doubts begin to grow regarding the effectiveness of the operation in Eagle Pass. According to Texas officials, around 3,000 immigrants were crossing the border in Eagle Pass daily, prior to the increased fortification efforts. That number has allegedly dropped to an average of three encounters per day (in just the areas where fortifications have been made).

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: It is important to note that the entirety of the fortifications in Eagle Pass are protecting but a few hundred meters of the southern U.S. border. Without question, the nearly 100% decrease in illegal border crossings in Eagle Pass is almost certainly due to most illegals being redirected just a few miles away from the high-profile areas around Shelby Park…and away from the preying eyes of journalists with cameras. A few hundred meters of concertina wire is not likely to overcome the substantial federal (and Organizations that are allegedly Non-Governmental) influence to increase the ease of illegal border crossings.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

Hey everyone, I've been getting a few questions about the Incident Response page from our GhostNet guide and decided I might as well describe the thought process a bit more clearly. 

I feel really hesitant to discuss such ideas that are not cemented in stone, because just making things up as we go along is not generally a good idea. However, in the interest of expediency, here's what we've got so far. It's not perfect, but it gives people something to work from when some national event occurs that requires paying attention to. And since the battle for most of us will be for comms, this foundation is heavily comms-centric. I freely admit that this may not be the best perspective to discuss this topic, but for many of us, in the absence of internet or cellular information exchanges being reliable, radio may be all we have.

00:00 - Introduction 

02:30 - 6 Step ICS Process 

05:04 - "What do I do?" 

07:35 - Immediate Concerns 

12:41 - Battle Tracking 

20:41 - Wrapping things up 

22:20 - Closing Thoughts

Youtube link: https://youtu.be/i9lu-Zso1ok

//The Wire//2130Z February 5, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: BORDER CRISIS CONTINUES DESPITE IMPROVMENTS//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

United Kingdom: King Charles III has been diagnosed with cancer. In the statements provided by Buckingham Palace the type of cancer was not disclosed. No further information at this time.

Red Sea/HOA: U.S. targeting of Houthi sites continues to become more regular. However, as no intelligence or BDA products have been made public, the effectiveness of American targeting is unclear.

-HomeFront-

TX: Substantial fortification efforts continue along the southern border in Eagle Pass. In a press statement released yesterday, the Alaska Army National Guard has revealed plans to deploy limited forces to the southern border under federal Title 10 orders. AC: Additional statements indicate that this deployment involves few troops (only a couple of helicopters and support staff), and is not in coordination with Operation Lone Star.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Independent journalists on the ground at the southern US border continue to document the largely open border. Texas, being highly motivated to show the grand efforts to secure high-profile border crossings, struggles to stem the tide of illegal immigration even just a few miles from the obstacles in Eagle Pass.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//