S2 Underground

//The Wire//2100Z July 21, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CHINA BEGINS MAJOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT IN TIBET. ALASKA AIRLINES SUFFERS IT OUTAGE, GROUNDING ALL FLIGHTS SUNDAY EVENING.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Central Asia: Over the weekend, Chinese authorities began construction on a major hydroelectric power plant in a remote region of Tibet. Groundbreaking ceremonies were held at a site adjacent to the future Yarlung Tsangpo Hydroelectric Power Plant in Nyingchi. This project is scheduled to be completed by 2033, and for comparison will allegedly be roughly three times the size of the Three Gorges Dam project.

-HomeFront-

Washington: Sunday evening an IT outage resulted in all Alaska Airlines aircraft being grounded for several hours. Roughly 150 flights were canceled as a result of the outage, and airline representatives have warned of future disruptions due to malfunctioning equipment. So far no cause for the outage has been disclosed, beyond general comments of unspecified equipment failure.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As with most Chinese industrial projects, the scale of the hydroelectric project in Tibet is impressive. However in this case, they are attempting to build the largest hydroelectric power plant in human history...directly in the middle of a region legendary for extreme seismic activity. More broadly however, there are mitigating factors which complicate this seemingly glaring mistake.

As the dam will also be built over a river that flows into India, various concerns are present regarding restricting the flow of water into India. Conversely, since India will be the primary customer of the electricity, these concerns will likely waver over time due to India's extremely poor infrastructure. In short, China knows that India is desperate for electricity, so China is going to dam up a river on the Indian border and use what would have been India's own river to produce electricity to sell back to them. Consequently, since this power plant will be used to provide electricity for export, CCP officials probably don't care as much about the national security risks when/if the plant gets destroyed due to an earthquake or due to combat action.

Considering that this dam can also be used to halt the flow of water into India, this dam highlights the often forgotten detail that the People's Republic of China rarely does anything that does not also have military value. The Yarlung Tsangpo River (which is known as the Brahmaputra River in India) accounts for roughly 7% of all of the freshwater supply in India (at least, according to the Indian government). This means that China can quite literally turn the screws on India, and apply pressure to their BRICS partner as necessary. Indian leadership, only interested in short-term gains (and cheap electricity), have either forgotten that there's no such thing as a free lunch and/or are so desperate to keep their failing electrical grid from outright collapse that they don't care about the potential military impacts that will occur in a decade when the plant comes online.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z July 18, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SITUATION IN SYRIA CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. CONCERNS GROW REGARDING LONG-STANDING THREATS TO AMERICAN LIVESTOCK.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Syria: The violence continues to escalate as the Druze militias have taken advantage of recent Israeli strikes to make territorial advances in the south. This morning PM Netanyahu pledged support for the Druze, and stated that Syrian government forces will not be allowed to enter the district south of Damascus. Overnight Druze forces seized the city of Suweida, and have claimed to control most of the key terrain throughout the entire region.

Analyst Comment: Though Netanyahu didn't name the district specifically, he probably meant Suwayda, but he could also have meant Daraa (which is an important distinction). Lines on the map have no meaning whatsoever in Syria right now, however Suwayda is the district currently host to the most fighting, mostly between the Druze and various other Islamic-based militias. Daraa is the main district that is currently occupied by Israeli forces, following Israel's invasion of Syria during the fall of the Assad regime. Right now, it looks like Netanyahu is trying to use the Druze to push Jolani's forces out of Suwayda, so as to increase Israel's "buffer zone" eastward, probably all the way to Druze Mountain. On the other hand, this is Syria...the cultural/tribal situation is vastly more complicated than that. The Druze community itself is not as culturally solidified as one might imagine, with younger tribes more closely aligning with Israel, but older Druze communities serving the Assad regime faithfully. Similarly, the fall of the Assad regime immediately spawned hundreds of splinter groups that have formed an even more complicated web of loyalties than before the collapse.

In short, there are no "good guys" in this case; all sides and tribes have committed extremely gruesome violence against each other, so the situation is largely a wash. However, Israel is the main nationstate-level player involved in all of this, and thus seeks to come out on top, regardless of which tribes kill each other. As usual, only time will tell how effective this effort will be. For context, the operational environment in this case is roughly 40% of the total land mass of Israel itself, with the Daraa and Suwayda districts combined being roughly 8,000 km² in size.

-HomeFront-

Midwest: Concern is growing regarding the spread of disease caused by the Asian Longhorned Tick, an invasive species of parasite that has become a problem throughout the United States over the past year. This parasite is known to cause Theileriosis in cattle, which can cause death in a wide array of cases, varying from 3-90%. There is no known treatment or vaccine for this disease, and prevention methods are the only known mitigation tactics that are effective at reducing the spread of this disease.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The concerns regarding the Asian Longhorned Tick are not new by any means, however this topic has gained more traction due to various research projects that are now underway. Oklahoma State University is currently sampling cattle to study how serious the spread of this parasite is, and the University of Georgia is likewise conducting similar research. While it may not sound like a serious threat at the moment, this parasite has the potential to exponentially grow into a major problem since the female tick can lay around 2,000 eggs at a time without mating. As a reminder, this tick was first discovered in the US on a sheep in New Jersey back in 2017, however due to the exponential spread of this parasite, entire herds of cattle are now swarming with these ticks from coast to coast. This has already resulted in a 150% spike in this tick being observed in the state of Pennsylvania, for instance. However now that this par

//The Wire//2000Z July 17, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TENSIONS CONTINUE IN THE MIDDLE EAST AMID RENEWED TARGETING IN GAZA AND WEST BANK. CONGRESS WEIGHS IMMIGRATION AMNESTY BILL.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Gaza: The war continues as before amid Israeli forces conducting the high-profile targeting of a Christian Church. The Holy Family Church in Gaza City was struck with a tank shell overnight, which resulted in 3x parishioners being killed and many people inside being wounded, including the parish Priest Fr. Gabriel Romanelli.

Analyst Comment: This attack comes after weeks of increased violence on Christian Churches in the West Bank, as Israeli settlers have conducted arson attacks on Churches throughout the region as recently as two days ago. This also comes two years after another high-profile Church bombing, in which the IDF targeted a site adjacent to the Church of St. Porphyrius a few days after the war began in October, 2023. That strike killed over a dozen people, and the Church was heavily damaged during the strike.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - In Congress, Rep. María Elvira Salazar introduced the "Dignity Act" on Tuesday, an immigration reform bill which seeks to grant amnesty to "long-term immigrants" via new work programs. Separately, in the Senate, Bill 225 has been introduced as the End Unaccountable Amnesty Act, which seeks to remove the ability for the DHS to grant immigrants Temporary Protected Status (TPS), as well as allow the deportation of unaccompanied minors that were dropped off at the border.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Washington, rumors are growing pertaining to the strikes in Iran a few weeks ago. In short, grumblings are beginning to emerge that indicate the airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities were not as effective as first touted. Both American and Israeli media outlets have been trying to float this story for a few days, of course citing the usual "unnamed sources" that can't be verified in any way. Whether or not this information is true is largely immaterial when it comes to the potential for this whole affair to kick off again. Right now, there aren't many indicators suggesting the US is interested in escalating things again. However, with strong domestic dissent regarding the handling of issues such as the Epstein scandal, the motivation for diversionary actions is quite high. This consideration, while certainly out on a limb at the moment, is still worth remembering as there might not be much notice of impending escalations with any of the global conflicts currently on the table.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z July 16, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ISRAELI FORCES STRIKE DAMASCUS. ATTEMPTED FIREBOMBER ARRESTED IN MICHIGAN. CONCERNS MOUNT REGARDING SECRET BRITISH PLAN TO HOUSE AFGHAN MIGRANTS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

United Kingdom: Social backlash has resulted from a court order issued yesterday, which unsealed many details pertaining to a secret government plan to relocate Afghans to the United Kingdom following the fall of Kabul in 2021. In 2022, a plan was created by the Ministry of Defense to covertly extricate roughly 4,500 people from Afghanistan and relocate them to the United Kingdom, after a data breach allegedly revealed that they were working for the British government during the war. On Tuesday, the British citizenry discovered that the true number of Afghans imported under this secret plan was actually over 16,000.

Syria: This morning Israeli forces conducted a large-scale airstrike at the Ministry of Defense building in Damascus, with initial damage assessments indicating the complex was nearly completely destroyed. The bombing of Damascus continued throughout the day.

Analyst Comment: At the moment it is uncertain as to how far Israel will go (for this specific engagement), however it's possible these are the next steps of their much larger campaign. For additional context, PM Netanyahu's criminal trial was scheduled to begin today, however court was adjourned due to the strikes. Before the cancellation, U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee was in attendance at the court.

-HomeFront-

Michigan: One assailant has been arrested in conjunction with a firebombing attempt that was carried out at the GOP headquarters in Dickinson County on Saturday. Local authorities state that Zayn Edward Arcand attempted to throw an incendiary device at the facility, however the device failed to ignite during the attack. Arcand was arrested shortly after the attack.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The Afghan scandal in the United Kingdom comes as concerns grow regarding the censorship of the citizenry. One of the more important aspects of this case is that everyone knew this was happening at the time in 2022, however a court order banned speech from media groups referencing this scandal. Now that this order has been rescinded, more details pertaining to immigration issues are likely to come to light over the next few weeks.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z July 15, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE UNITED STATES. CONCERNS GROWING REGARDING SHIFTING PRIORITIES IN WASHINGTON.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Syria: Conflict has erupted once again, as fighting has flared up between Druze militias and the  collection of Bedouin and pro-government forces loosely aligned under al-Jolani's new regime. A few hundred casualties have been reported in the town of Suwayda over the weekend, and a very hesitant "ceasefire" has been declared after this latest round of fighting.

-HomeFront-

Colorado: Following a high-profile kidnapping attempt that occurred in Aurora last year, a District Attorney has faced backlash for her efforts to free the perpetrator of the attack. Solomon Galligan was arrested for attempting to kidnap a child on the street in Aurora last year, and on Monday reports emerged that DA Amy Padden was attempting to drop all charges against him because he was found mentally incompetent to stand trial.

USA: Flooding incidents continue as before, with heavy rainfall causing flooding throughout New York and New Jersey overnight. In Texas, recovery efforts continue amid constant heavy rainfall, with roughly 160x persons still being reported missing from the initial flooding crisis that struck the Guadalupe River basin two weeks ago. The casualty count for the floods in Texas so far remains at 132x reported fatalities.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: At the moment, the White House appears to be radically shifting priorities on many different issues. The shift to cover up the Epstein client list, and to hush-up all aspects of the case is without question a bridge too far for most people to accept. Claiming that the largest known human trafficking network in the world simply had no clients is an incredulous turning point in history that President Trump will not be able to walk away from hoping that everyone forgets. Likewise, relations between the United States and Russia have deteriorated further following the events of the past few days. The war in Ukraine has sharply veered away from any sort of peace agreement, with the United States ramping up arms shipments to Ukraine once again. Though nothing is confirmed at this point, the usual leaks have indicated that the White House is considering the next wave of aid to Ukraine, and what weapons systems it will entail. Some whispers suggest the US will allow Ukraine to increase direct attacks on Moscow with American arms, and other rumors suggest that the US is looking to send more capable arms and missiles with which to continue the war. Time will tell what is decided, but the bottom line is that the flow chart is pointing toward an increase in the war's activity, and all parties are trending away from peace talks.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z July 14, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WHITE HOUSE LOOKS TO TARIFF RUSSIA AS PEACE TALKS STAGNATE. FLOODING CONTINUES IN TEXAS AS MORE RAINFALL ARRIVES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

Kentucky: On Sunday, a shooting was reported in Lexington at the Richmond Road Baptist Church after a brief police pursuit. Local authorities state that Guy House briefly engaged a police officer near the Blue Grass Airport during a traffic stop, wounding the officer in the initial incident. House then fled the scene, entering the Church that was located adjacent to the airport. Upon entry, House murdered two people, and wounded several others. House was engaged by pursuing officers, and was killed at the scene.

Texas: Following last week's devastating floods, heavy rainfall returned over the weekend to the same area. Roughly 6-10 inches of rain fell throughout central Texas, and more precipitation is expected throughout the week. Search and Rescue operations have been halted a few times due to flooding risks re-emerging throughout the region.

Washington D.C. - Relations with Russia have deteriorated following efforts by the White House to end the war in Ukraine falling flat. This morning President Trump stated that the United States is looking to implement a tariff of 100% on Russian goods if a peace deal is not reached in 50 days.

This afternoon, the Pentagon awarded xAI's Grok a $200 million contract to integrate the LLM throughout the defense community.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Russia is already the most heavily-sanctioned nation on Earth, with very little trade being undertaken between the United States and Russia. American imports of Russian goods amount to roughly $3.5 billion per year, which (for context) is roughly 10 times less than the GDP of Vermont. Consequently, engaging in a trade spat with Russia is unlikely to yield the intended effect.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 10, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MERCHANT VESSELS SUNK IN RED SEA. FLOODING CONTINUES AROUND THE UNITED STATES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Two commercial vessels have been sunk off the coast of Yemen by Houthi forces over the past few days. On July 6th, the M/V MAGIC SEAS was struck by cruise missiles and Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs), which was rapidly followed up with small arms and RPG attacks via militants in small boats. The next day, the M/V ETERNITY C was attacked in a similar manner. Both vessels suffered severe flooding, finally sinking overnight.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - This morning the FDA granted approval for Moderna's new "Spikevax" COVID-19 vaccine for children 6 months old to 11 years old. 

Following concerns expressed by the agricultural community, the USDA has reversed their stance on allowing cattle to be imported from Mexico. The decision to re-close livestock imports was made following a new infestation of New World Screwworm (NWS) being reported at a higher latitude than previously disclosed by Mexican officials, and that NWS was present in herds of livestock much closer to the US/Mexico border than previously known. As of right now, all ports of entry are closed to Mexican cattle, while the parasite continues to spread throughout Mexico.

Southern USA: Flooding incidents remain constant as severe weather systems continue to develop throughout the region. More severe flooding was reported throughout North Carolina, with water rescues continuing in Durham and many downed trees causing power outages. The Graham–Mebane Water Treatment Plant went offline due to flooding damage, causing a brief water shortage throughout the city of Mebane.

The flooding recovery in Texas continues as the total casualty count climbs to 120x fatalities and around 173x people still being unaccounted for. In New Mexico, 3x fatalities were reported as a result of the floods over the past few days, as flash floods struck the town of Ruidoso.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Heavy rain is still being forecast for many areas throughout the American South and along the east coast for the next few days. Considering the rain that has already fallen, in many areas the ground is already saturated, making flooding and landslides much more of a risk. Now is the time to prepare, and consider the impact of weather events becoming much more severe than originally forecast.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 9, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TENSIONS RISE BETWEEN GERMANY AND CHINA REGARDING RED SEA INCIDENT. TAIWAN BEGINS LARGE-SCALE MILITARY EXERCISE. WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCES NEW TARIFF ON COPPER.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Far East: Taiwan began their largest annual military drill yesterday evening, with this year's exercises being the most substantial to date. This drill is scheduled to last 10x days, roughly double the length of last year's maneuvers.

Germany: Controversy has resulted from an incident that occurred in the Red Sea a few days ago. German authorities have stated that a Chinese warship operating in the Red Sea deliberately targeted one of their aircraft with a laser with the indent to blind the pilots and/or damage sensor equipment. This incident prompted Germany to summon the Chinese Ambassador to account for the situation, and tensions between the two nations have increased as a result.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Yesterday the White House announced implementing a 50% tariff on all imported copper. Following this announcement, the price of copper skyrocketed by 13% to a new high today.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The long-term economic impacts of pumping the price of copper are best analyzed by economists. However, the real-world impacts to the average person are plain to see. Anytime a precious metal sharply increases, theft of that metal also rises. Copper theft is already a growing problem in most areas, so opportunistic criminals will likely take advantage of this new high to steal and scrap everything that isn't bolted down (and also most things that ARE bolted down), at least in the short term while the price of copper remains very volatile.

Regarding the lasing incident in the Red Sea, these types of events happen very frequently. However, these more soft-targeting efforts are generally a good indicator for which way the wind is blowing in the international arena. Right now China is not very friendly with the west, but particularly the European Union at large.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 8, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WHITE HOUSE REVERSES STANCE ON EPSTEIN SCANDAL. USA MAKES PLANS FOR RESTARTING ARMS SHIPMENTS TO UKRAINE. TRUMP STATES NO DEPORTATION AMNESTY FOR ILLEGALS, EXCEPT AGRICULTURAL WORKERS WHO CAN STAY UNDER NEW WORK PROGRAM.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

Texas: Disaster recovery continues following the recent floods that have struck the state. Over 109x fatalities have been reported in conjunction with the flooding in Kerr County and the Guadalupe River basin. Local officials are starting to shift rescue operations into recovery, as the last live victim was recovered on Friday. Nevertheless, the search for the missing continues.

North Carolina: Following the landfall of a tropical depression over the weekend, severe flooding struck the Capitol region. Dozens of water rescues were conducted over the past two days in Chapel Hill and Durham, and 4x fatalities have been reported so far as a result of the floods.

Washington D.C. - Political activities continue as various press statements and news conferences over the past few days have resulted in a shifting of priorities for the White House. Most notably, the White House has changed perspective on the Epstein case. After months of hype surrounding the potential for arrests, the White House and DoJ have stated that no arrests of Epstein's clients will occur nor will any further documents be released regarding this case. President Trump also verbally berated the journalist inquiring about this change of stance, calling the question a "waste of time".

Concerning immigration, President Trump also stated that illegal immigrants will not be granted amnesty, however agricultural and service workers will be granted reprieve from deportation under a work program (the details of which have yet to be released).

President Trump has also expressed interest in re-arming Ukraine, following last week's slowdown of supplying Ukraine with missiles for their Patriot batteries. Yesterday afternoon the Pentagon confirmed that they will resume weapon shipments to Ukraine.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Regarding the flooding in Texas, as unfortunate and inflammatory as it is, the potential for malign action must be considered. Concerns are already growing regarding the operations of the Rainmaker Technology Corporation and their weather modification programs that have taken place throughout Texas. Augustus Doricko, the CEO of Rainmaker admitted to their company conducting operations in south-central Texas on July 2nd...two days before the severe flooding occurred. Additionally, many are wondering why cloud seeding operations were conducted if the remnants of a Tropical Storm were expected throughout the area, and no drought was declared.

Of course, it will take many years of investigation to determine the links between all of this, but since time is of the essence and Hurricane Season is well underway, it would be wise to re-examine risk assessments to factor in current events. From a risk management perspective, if hazardous weather is forecasted, it would be wise to plan for that weather system to produce more severe weather than originally forecasted, just out of an abundance of caution. Especially if located in areas where weather modification efforts are being undertaken with zero oversight whatsoever. However, at the end of the day, if you are chest-deep in water trying to save your family, it won't matter if this is the work of a company to manipulate atmospheric conditions, or if it was a freak weather system. At that point, you're in the mud having to make tough decisions. Assess the risk, start taking weather systems more seriously, and have a plan for what to do if the forecast underestimates a situation when it occurs.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 7, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: FLOODING DEVASTATES AMERICAN SOUTH. MULTIPLE AMBUSHES REPORTED AT ICE FACILITIES IN TEXAS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

Texas: Severe flooding continues to impact the state following unusual weather systems producing much more precipitation than originally forecasted. Concerning casualties, 82x fatalities have been reported so far. Hundreds of rescues by small boat and helicopter have been conducted, and Search and Rescue operations continue throughout the Guadalupe and Llano River basins.

Texas: This morning, a small arms engagement was reported at the CBP annex in McAllen. Authorities state that an assailant (who has not yet been identified) was waiting in ambush with multiple firearms to target CBP agents arriving for work this morning. After a short firefight, the individual was killed. This shooting comes two days after a separate skirmish was reported at the Prairieland Detention Facility in Alvarado.

Friday night, an individual who was visibly armed was acting suspiciously in the vicinity of the Prairieland Detention Facility. Beyond these initial factual details, the timing of events becomes unclear. However, as this situation was unfolding, a group of insurgents were observed maneuvering tactically to the west of the facility, taking up a position haphazardly concealed in a treeline running north/south approximately 50m to the west of the facility's perimeter fence. 

Shortly after this observation, this element launched their attack by setting off fireworks either as a diversionary maneuver, to conceal the sound of gunfire, or to prompt police to come out of the facility to enter the killzone of their arranged ambush. During the fray, a small arms engagement erupted outside this facility, as the element of insurgents in the treeline opened fire on one of the officers attempting to investigate the situation. No one was killed during the exchange, however one officer was wounded. A total of 11x people have been arrested so far in conjunction with this attack.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The shooters arrested in conjunction with the Prairieland Detention Center skirmish appear to not necessarily be Cartel-affiliated, but the more garden-variety far-left-insurgent-type. Cartel members don't often take breaks during a small arms battle to spray paint graffiti (as has been reported taking place during this engagement), nor do more organized and professional militants usually get caught en masse like this. All of the attackers were wearing body armor at the time of their arrest, but local reports state that only one firearm was recovered (the rifle that jammed and concluded the attack). As such, this is either a very kinetic "protest" event, or a very poor ambush.

Concerning the other small arms engagement (the shooting in McAllen), it's possible there is a link between the two, though authorities have not speculated publicly on this yet. Prior to his attack, the McAllen shooter had spray painted the words "Cordis Die" on his vehicle, which was used to ram the gate at the Border Patrol facility to launch the attack. This phrase is most commonly associated with video game culture (such as the Call of Duty franchise), so it's possible that the attack in Alvarado could be linked, even if it's just a loose link based on ideology. Both attacks were conducted with very obvious public relations efforts in mind, and symbology/politics was certainly a focal point of the evidence left behind. Nevertheless, there are so many attacks on Border Patrol facilities at present that it's hard to establish any clear link between all of the groups who have chosen to conduct targeting efforts.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//