S2 Underground

//The Wire//2100Z September 24, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: WEAPONS CACHE CONTAINING RPGS DISCOVERED ON US/MEXICO BORDER. US NAVY SUPPORT VESSEL RUNS AGROUND. CONGRESS PREPARING FOR DECAPITATION STRIKE ON KEY U.S. LEADERS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: A US Navy support vessel is reportedly taking on water due to running aground off the coast of Oman. The USNS BIG HORN (T-AO-198) ran aground sometime a few days ago, with various posts regarding her damage being leaked on social media.

AC: As the US Navy has not yet acknowledged this incident, few details remain certain. However, a minor grounding incident (while inconvenient) should not impact the readiness of the Fleet whatsoever, even though this is the only vessel of this class stationed within the 5th Fleet AOR at the moment. In war, it’s generally ill-advised to place such reliance on one single support vessel to the point that the sinking of one ship can jeopardize an entire Carrier Strike Group. As such, if this incident is indeed seriously impacting to operations, the US Navy has much larger problems than a mere grounding incident.

Lebanon: Conflict continues and remains intense among all belligerents, as both sides greatly escalate targeting efforts. Commercial aviation has largely been temporarily halted or reduced throughout the region as civilian airlines mitigate risk amid the latest escalations.

-HomeFront-

Arizona: Leaked Border Patrol documents came to light yesterday that indicate a small weapons cache was discovered last week in the Ajo Station’s area of responsibility, just over the border in Mexico. The weapons cache was discovered during a patrol of the area, allegedly in the vicinity of grid 12RUA5436318472. Most of the contents of the cache included explosives and several RPGs. The explosives and other weapons were confiscated and the cache destroyed. AC: This incident highlights the continually escalating situation on the southern US border. Earlier this year, various cartels began using small drones (sUAS platforms) in a similar fashion as being used in the Ukrainian War. Using drones to drop hand grenades on rival cartel encampments along the border has been increasing in commonality, making the discovery of RPGs and explosives on the border a concerning yet unsurprising development.

Washington D.C. – In Congress, a special committee is working on a proposal to streamline the continuity of government in the event of a mass attack on government officials. Details are few, however the general plan as proposed so far is for each member of Congress to submit a list of 5 names that could be potential successors in the event of their death, bypassing most current election law to speed up the process of mass vacancies.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Any time a government seeks to prepare for mass decapitation strikes, presumably resulting from a very kinetic global conflict, this is generally cause for concern. This concern mostly arises from the very slow departure from (and apparently the ineffectiveness of) the Cold War era doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction; governments around the world are preparing for a global catastrophe as if such a situation is survivable for them. Preparing for catastrophic situations is strongly encouraged among a populace as being a characteristic of a responsible citizenry. However, when governments begin to examine the possibility of these contingent situations a populace might be inclined to think that their government believes that such situations are survivable, and thus might be more willing to seek out, and less willing to avoid, such a conflict in the first place.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z September 23, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: RUSSIAN ICBM TEST FAILS. ISRAELI BOMBING IN LEBANON CONTINUES. DOJ RELEASES BOUNTY LETTER FROM WOULD-BE TRUMP ASSASSIN.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Russia: Over the weekend, a routine ICBM test failed catastrophically in Arkhangelsk Oblast. Satellite imagery confirmed the presence of a large crater at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome indicating that a RS-28 SARMAT (NATO reporting name: SS-30 SATAN II, [likely omitting the “X” experimental designation at this point]) missile exploded in its silo. AC: As this was intended to be a test, no nuclear payload was on the missile. This missile recently entered combat service last year, however this incident is the latest in a string of failures for the platform, echoing the recent American troubles with the Minuteman program.

Lebanon: Israeli targeting continues in the form of airstrikes, with hundreds of sorties being flown over the weekend to strike targets in southern Lebanon. Israeli ground forces continue to maneuver from the southern front in Gaza, to stage in the north (though the exact composition and disposition of these forces remains uncertain at this time). Hezbollah rocket attacks have become more organized, as evidenced by a substantial coordinated rocket attack on Ramat David airbase over the weekend. Similar targeting efforts have been noted in Haifa, marking some of the most significant rocket attacks by Hezbollah since the war began.

More politically, Israel has specifically brought the Litani River into question again, which has served as a United Nations sanctioned demarcation line for Hezbollah operations. AC: It’s very likely that the roughly 300 square miles of territory in southern Lebanon is going to be a source of conflict once again, as historical grievances over the hotly-contested region become inflamed once more. Israeli statements over the past few days have essentially taken the position of “if Hezbollah doesn’t move north of the Litani, we’ll make them”. However, it’s not clear as to if Israel is going to treat this as a true border expansion, or more of a “buffer zone” for Hezbollah. In any case, most United Nations affiliated aid groups are not gambling either way, with many humanitarian groups urging their personnel to immediately evacuate north of the river. Most western nations have also increased their threat levels for travel to Lebanon, and repeated calls for their citizens to leave Lebanon while they still can via commercial means.

-HomeFront-

Ohio: The situation regarding Haitian immigrants in Springfield has continued to deteriorate, amid other complications. Yesterday, Black Israelite demonstrators marched in support of their ideology in Springfield, with several hundred members taking part in demonstrations. AC: Some claims have indicated the Nation of Islam also being active at these events, though the varying factional allegiances among all of these groups is often contradictory and confusing.

Florida: In the pre-trail documents made public this morning, the US Department of Justice released a letter written by the second Trump would-be assassin Ryan Routh. The contents of the letter reference Routh’s failure to assassinate Trump, and offers a $150,000 bounty to any successful assassin.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Many are concerned about the rapid release of this letter, considering that the manifestos of many far-left shooters tend to be concealed from the public for long periods of time (such as the Nashville shooter’s manifesto) allegedly due to the potential to encourage further targeting. Yet in this case, when future targeting of Trump is actively encouraged, and a bounty is even offered, the letter is released to the public immediately. As such, for a governmental department that has been facing numerous allegations of impropriety during an election season, the publis

//The Wire//2200Z September 20, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: MAJOR FIRE BREAKS OUT IN OHIO. POTENTIAL FOR WAR IN LEBANON CONTINUES TO MOUNT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: This morning Israeli bombing continued in Lebanon, to include the targeting of at least one major residential structure in Beirut. Hezbollah rocket attacks have continued in kind, though more randomly and sporadically. AC: No indications of an Israeli ground offensive occurring yet, though forces continue to stage in the region.

-HomeFront-

Ohio: A major fire is underway at a scrapyard facility in Columbus. The Columbus Auto Shredding facility on Alum Park Drive caught fire early this morning. Local air quality advisories are in effect due to the HAZMAT concerns from the fire. No word yet on what started the fire.

Washington D.C. – In response to the growing concern regarding the lack of substantial increases of security postures in the current threat environment, the US Secret Service director has highlighted the current stance of the USSS. Acting Director Ronald Rowe stated that “We have to be able to have the personnel, the assets, and be able to spread those out for an indefinite period of time in the event that another situation, a geopolitical conflict, or some other tension, requires us to do so”.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Statements by Director Rowe have raised eyebrows considering this is the second time this week his comparatively odd statements on the topic have left citizens wondering what he is insinuating. Many concerns lie with the nature of the “geopolitical conflict” Director Rowe has referred to twice now, and what kind of geopolitical conflict could possibly have anything to do with the US Secret Service. Any event whatsoever that would require the USSS to spread their forces thin would likely be an event of gargantuan significance. As there’s nothing to go on but implications and insinuations, this is merely a continuation of indications and warnings of the current threat environment, as tensions continue to mount this election season.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z September 19, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: ISRAEL SHIFTS FORCES TO NORTHERN FRONT. INCIDENT CAUSES INJURIES AT TRUMP EVENT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: This afternoon, following the second wave of Israeli IED attacks throughout Lebanon, Israeli forces announced the creation of a northern front campaign, and a shifting of resources to the northern border with Lebanon. Local Israeli media has claimed that the ground invasion of Lebanon has begun, however it is not clear as to if this indicates a total ground invasion of Lebanon, or a more limited border incursion.

AC: Israeli media is often exuberant in their descriptions of military activities, so even if Israeli media is claiming an invasion is occurring, the scale of such remains uncertain. Either way, this confirms with as much certainty as we’re going to get that the targeting efforts of the past two days are part of a larger campaign that is yet to come. More immediately, Israeli aerial targeting of dozens of locations around Lebanon is already occurring and has been fairly regular throughout the day (alongside Hezbollah’s rocket attacks). Whatever Israel has planned as part of a larger operation will likely take place very soon as it’s clear that a defacto state of war already exists between Israel and Lebanon.

-HomeFront-

Arizona: Reports have begun to mount concerning a possible incident at Trump’s rally in Tucson last week. Local media reports the hospitalization of several people (some reports claim as many as 20 people have been hospitalized), all due to vision problems and eye irritation that began to manifest shortly after Trump’s rally. Some victims have reported temporary blindness. The victims of this incident were all congregated together on stage, seated in the area to Trump’s right.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though the information sources regarding the Tucson incident are few, considering the current extremely high-risk threat environment a little leeway must be granted; Speculation is all that is available to the public to assess future threats in this specific case. Local media reports suggest this may have been due to exposure to some sort of chemical weapon. This is supported by the treatment efforts undertaken by local medical facilities, which treated the victims for varying types of exposure to hazardous chemicals. However, considering the environmental sensors that should be in use by the USSS, this incident probably did not involve the use of Chemical Warfare Agents (CWA). However, these symptoms are in line with other deliberate targeting efforts. High-power infrared lasers, invisible to the unaided human eye, can cause immediate blindness and burning sensations similar to what the victims reported. This could easily be medically diagnosed with an eye examination, which will be important to consider as more information becomes public regarding this incident. More broadly, this incident aligns with historic reports of Directed Energy Weapon (DEW) use, with the symptoms experienced by the victims aligning somewhat with those of Havana Syndrome. However, this possibility would be nearly impossible to prove, and is purely speculative at this time.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z September 18, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: SUSPICOUS INCIDENT OCCURS AT TRUMP RALLY IN LONG ISLAND. UKRAINE STRIKES MAJOR RUSSIAN ARMS DEPOT. ANOTHER WAVE OF EXPLODING DEVICES STRIKES LEBANON.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: As expected, another wave of device explosions has struck Lebanon. This morning, hundreds of handheld radios reportedly exploded throughout Beirut, in a probable continuation of yesterday’s targeting efforts by Israel. So far, handheld VHF/UHF radios have been targeted, along with sporadic reports of other consumer-grade electronics such as televisions, laptops, cellphones, etc.

Russia: Overnight, Ukrainian forces conducted a substantial strike on an ammunition storage facility in Toropets, Russia. The resulting explosion was so substantial it was detected as an earthquake by local seismic sensors.

-HomeFront-

New York: This morning, reports circulated involving explosives being found the vicinity of President Trump’s rally in Long Island. A suspicious vehicle reportedly breached the security perimeter, prompting closer investigation that revealed the possible explosives. However, after the initial notice of this incident, the Nassau County Police Commissioner stated that the reports were false, and that the incident involved mistaking a training incident for a real-world incident.

AC: Details of this incident remain highly suspect, and contradict statements made by police. The driver of the vehicle initially fled from the scene on foot, taking cover in a wooded area adjacent to the site of the initial incident. It’s also not entirely clear as to if the personnel involved in the alleged training scare were actually law enforcement entities, nor is It clear as to how a training scenario could be undertaken in such proximity to a real-world event such as this. Training exercises are usually not conducted in any situation where a fake IED threat could be confused with a real threat; smaller training opportunities at real world events can happen (especially with the use of K9s), however a VBIED training scenario being conducted in the vicinity of such a high-profile event, is highly suspect. One detail that lends to the suspicious nature of this incident is that authorities have confirmed that the individual with the K9 that initially reported the explosives, has been detained.

Consequently, though entirely and completely speculative at this time, this event could have indeed been a real incident. Again, this is completely speculative, however the details of this event as presented to the public are highly suspicious and not in keeping with standard law enforcement practices involving training with explosive devices. Considering the lack of trust and confidence in the varying agencies assigned to protect Trump, the possibility (however speculative it may be) that there is more to this story than a simple training mistake, would be wise to consider.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: After a second wave of Israeli clandestine targeting in Lebanon, it’s extraordinarily likely that more Israeli IED attacks will continue, as previously stated. The continuance of this targeting vector also strengthens the assessment that Israel is preparing for future combat operations in Lebanon. This operation generally fits within the realm of “shaping fires”, and is doctrinally aligned with softening up an adversary before more substantial targeting takes place.

The precedent of this continuing operation cannot be overstated. No Positive Identification (PID) criteria, Hostile Intent/Hostile Act, or Rules of Engagement criteria have been provided by Israel lending any sort of legitimacy to these latest targeting efforts in an entirely separate sovereign nation. As a reminder, Lebanon is not Palestine.

It is not clear how Israeli targeting efforts such as these are in accordance with Ar

//The Wire//2000Z September 17, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CLANDESTINE ISRAELI OPERATION RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD INJURIES IN LEBANON.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: This morning Israeli forces enacted a covert sabotage plan that has apparently been in the works for some time. This morning, thousands of communications devices exploded throughout Lebanon at exactly the same time. So far, initial reporting from Lebanon indicates roughly 2,800 Lebanese citizens have been injured and/or killed as a result of the coordinated targeting effort (though this number is probably overinflated). The number of Hezbollah militants wounded in this operation is not known, with official statements by Hezbollah being inconclusive so far.

AC: Details are hard to verify, however this probably a modernized version of Project ELDEST SON (and/or the subsequent spin-off versions of this operation that surely came after the Vietnam era). Though largely speculation at present, this was likely a plan many weeks in the making. Israel probably concealed explosives inside pagers with the intention of covertly distributing these communications devices among Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon. Then, once the devices made their way through Hezbollah’s networks and allegedly into the hands of Hezbollah operatives (over a period of time), the explosives in the pagers could be detonated remotely all at the same exact moment. Of note, initial media speculation has centered around Israel “hacking” ordinary electronic devices in some way, resulting in the batteries overheating and exploding. This is almost certainly NOT the case; considering the remains of the devices found and posted on social media (along with the historical context) it’s overwhelmingly likely that the devices in question were tampered with and packed with a small amount of military-grade explosives. So far, most of the pagers that have been noted to explode are models that only contain user-replaceable alkaline AA or AAA batteries anyway, which are not explosive.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The recent Israeli operations in Lebanon have very strongly indicated the existence and/or continuation of some of the most clandestine military operations in world history. In years past, insurgents in the GWOT era from Iraq to Afghanistan eventually got wise to the vulnerabilities posed by their cellphones. Now, thanks to Israel, the cat is out of the bag and insurgents around the world know that they not only have to worry about their electronic devices being tracked, but them remotely exploding as well. However, this is not entirely an unknown tactic, similar efforts have been noted to be in use by both sides during the Ukrainian War…discarded AK-47 magazines booby-trapped with explosives that are set to detonate when the magazine is inserted into a weapon and the first round fired, have been discovered on the eastern front. Some of which allegedly allowed for the remote detonation of the device, not simply being triggered by the carelessness of the person who picked it up. Though in Ukraine, both sides using the same weapons systems is likely a complicating factor for this method.

This tradecraft is not without extreme risk; gambling on an explosively-rigged device making it into the hands of an insurgent is risky. After all, a device may end up in the hands of an innocent civilian, as may have happened in at least some cases this morning in Lebanon. However, as Israel does not abide by most western doctrine when it comes to the concept of Civilian Casualties (CIVCAS) within the realm of kinetic targeting, this was likely not a factor considered during the planning phases of this clandestine operation. As there is only enough void space inside these specific consumer grade electronics for a small charge, this method usually is not effective in killing the target, but rather maiming them. This is supported

//The Wire//2330Z September 16, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: DETAILS OF SECOND TRUMP SHOOTING REMAIN SUSPICIOUS. GAS PIPELINE EXPLODES IN TEXAS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

Florida: The suspect who attempted to assassinate Donald Trump yesterday afternoon has been identified as Ryan Wesley Routh, an activist heavily involved in the Ukrainian War as an advocate for western volunteers. All of the suspect’s social media accounts have been purged from existence, likely in response to federal censorship requests.

Texas: This afternoon a natural gas pipeline exploded in La Porte, following a motor vehicle accident (MVA) that resulted in a valve being struck, causing a substantial fire. Local evacuations were reported due to the intensity of the fire, however no injuries have been reported by local media. AC: The circumstances leading up to the initial MVA are unclear; local authorities have not stated whether or not this was indeed an accident, or the result of a malign actor.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As one might expect, the details regarding the second Trump assassination attempt remain largely unconfirmed. However, considering the importance and significance of current events, some analytical leeway is to be expected. As such, the details that have been released (or mostly discovered on social media) are even more suspicious than the first attempt. However, as the suspect is still alive for the time being, the chances for follow-on information remain more likely than the previous attempt: The suspect having a very large online presence, many contacts within government agencies (due to his highly-suspect work to recruit volunteers for Ukraine), and his highly-documented activist work all give a much more complex picture than the previous effort to target Trump. If the suspect remains alive, more information is likely to become available to the public in due time, however this potential remains uncertain.

Regarding the USSS response, even fewer details have been released. Considering the suspect does not appear to have successfully used his weapon, many might believe the Secret Service’s actions to be a success. However, one must remember that close protection details are usually the last line of defense for a protectee. Considering the “zero-fail” nature of the USSS, if any malign actor is even able to get within rifle range of the protectee in the first place, this would be a failure of the highest order. Even moreso if the potential shooter remained alive to egress from the area.

It is not clear how the suspect knew that Trump would be playing golf at that time and place, nor is it known how the suspect would be able to occupy a position that allowed for a comparatively high chance of success. How (or if) the suspect knew that Trump was only one or two holes away is also not clear, with this detail alone causing questions of whether or not the suspect had prior knowledge of Trump’s movement. However, if the suspect had laid an ambush site and waited for Trump to make his way around the course, this could have been the reason for why the suspect was able to get well within rifle range of Trump.

Many may liken this to be another cascading series of failures among the USSS, when the more specific details of the engagement are factored in. The suspect was able to know where Trump was with shocking accuracy, had time to conceal himself in the foliage along a high-traffic roadway that is hard to approach without being spotted, and construct a fighting position that included at least two homemade bulletproof panels for protection. One major unknown detail pertains to how long the suspect remained in his hide site at the perimeter fence before being spotted and engaged. The construction of a hasty fighting position clearly indicates the suspect had vastly more time on his hands than he needed to be operationally effe

 IPB Video: https://youtu.be/oIJDMbwziOI 
Intel Cycle: https://youtu.be/J_fjLoa5rBo 
Battle Tracking: https://youtu.be/CBHJWfrGKdE 
00:00 - Introduction 
01:12 - Scale and Perspective 
01:55 - The Emergency 
03:54 - Terrain 
06:42 - Personnel 
08:01 - Contingent Situation 
08:58 - Security 
10:35 - Idle Hands 
13:21 - The Question 
14:33 - Lead Analyst 
20:53 - CUOPS 
24:38 - Production Manager 
37:45 - FUOPS/Plans 
47:22 - Survivability 
52:16 - Final Considerations 


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//The Wire//2230Z September 15, 2024//

//PRIORITY//

//BLUF: GUNMAN ENGAGES TRUMP IN APPARENT SECOND ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT, TRUMP NOT INJURED IN THE ATTACK, GUNMAN APPREHENDED ALIVE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

Florida: This afternoon a gunman attempted to assassinate Donald Trump as he was playing golf at the Trump International Golf Course in West Palm Beach. An unidentified gunman approached the security perimeter of the golf course with an AK-47, and attempted to engage Trump through the perimeter fence. Details of further events remain unconfirmed, however initial reporting indicates a small arms engagement occurred between the suspect and US Secret Service personnel. It is unclear as to if the suspect fired his weapon during the engagement, but follow-on information suggests USSS personnel were able to engage the suspect with suppressing fire before he was able to engage Trump. This engagement caused the suspect to break contact and egress from the area. A few minutes later, the suspect was apprehended via a traffic stop on I-95, after having successfully egressed from the ambush site. The suspect’s rifle and other gear were recovered in the foliage at the perimeter fence vantage point where the shooting took place.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As this incident is currently developing, few details remained confirmed. Additional information remains hard to verify due to deliberate propaganda efforts conducted by mainstream media to downplay this second assassination attempt. Initially, most legacy media sources tried to spin the story as being a shooting between two unrelated parties, that simply took place outside Trump’s establishment. This is NOT the case; this was a deliberate, calculated, and planned attempt on Trump’s life, as evidenced by the details released so far by authorities. The gunshots that were heard originated from the US Secret Service, and were intended to neutralized the suspect. It is not known if the suspect was wounded in the attack, however he did manage to successfully evade capture for several miles as he egressed northbound on I-95.  

Trump himself posted a statement on social media shortly after the attack, indicating that he was safe.

Admin Note: No major indications and warnings of impending strategic activities have been noted over the past few hours. HFGCS and BearNet traffic nominal. Strategic aviation assets operating as normal.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z September 13, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TEPID ATMOSPHERICS REMAIN THROUGHOUT EUROPE AS U.S. EYES NEXT ESCALATION OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE. //

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Poland: This afternoon a diplomatic incident has mounted following remarks by Polish politicians following the conclusion of a brief state visit by US SECSTATE Blinken. Poland has hosted varying talks related to the Ukrainian War, with Polish leadership expressing support for allowing Ukraine to use increasingly more long-range munitions in attacks on Russia.

Russia: President Putin has weighed in on the possibility of the United States allowing the use of long-range precision munitions by Ukraine to strike Russia. Specifically, Putin has directly stated that allowing Ukraine to use munitions that could only function by using NATO support systems (such as being guided by NATO military satellites that Ukraine does not have access to) would be considered to be an attack by NATO itself.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Comments made by one or two Polish Members of the European Parliament hardly constitute the voice of an entire nation. However, this does indicate the level of dissension that is being expressed within some of the Western powers that are more heavily involved in the war. Some nations such as Germany, Poland, and the United Kingdom are approaching a crossroads regarding the next phase of the war. So far, the leadership of all western powers has indicated a preference for dragging out the war for as long as possible, and actively seeking to prevent peace talks (as has been a constant trend over the past year). This has been obvious to most for some time, however if elected officials are beginning to oppose the war more strongly (perhaps spurred on by the war in the Middle East), this could cause more serious internal tensions throughout many European nations.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//