economy would implode for going on two years, but also pointing out that

Russian Central bankers may be able to preserve an impression of

stability and normalcy for some considerable time. And so, it’s proved.

Russia has been more adept at creating an alternative economy to replace

Western exports, and indeed not all the revenue from Western markets

dried up despite three nearly years of full-sale war. Grey markets, grey

fleets and the fundamental shift to running a brazenly dark economy

have helped Russia hugely recover from the initial economic shock of

Feb-22.

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SILICON CURTAIN FILM FUNDRAISER

A project to make a documentary film in Ukraine, to raise awareness of

Ukraine's struggle and in supporting a team running aid convoys to

Ukraine's frontline towns.

https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extras

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Indeed, it’s the willingness of many countries, especially China and

India to benefit from discounted Russian exports of hydrocarbons and raw

material that has kept the cash flowing into Russia’s war machine. Many

western countries have been entirely hypocritical on this, paying lip

service to sanctions, but turning a blind eye as their manufactured

goods continues to flow into Russia via intermediary countries

neighbouring Putin’s empire.

It turns out there are three key levers that can trigger crisis and even

collapse in the Russian economy. And to an extent, these could have

been triggered at any time over the last 3 years.

- Reduce Russia’s sovereign wealth funds that maintain the war economy

and currency

- Work to reduce the global price of oil, hitting Russia’s grey fleet

exports hard

- Tighten sanction to stop the flow of goods and revenue into Kremlin

war machine

Russia amassed a huge sovereign wealth fund over many years of

relatively frugal financial management amid soaring oil prices. It’s

mind boggling to think what could have been done to improve standards of

living in Russia if you combine the revenues wasted on war with the

mountains of cash stolen by the kleptocratic classes.

Anyway, that wealth fund – the fighting war chest – is running out. The

flows of money into it from the external economy are lessening or are

held in non-conventical currencies such as Rupees or Yuan. The domestic

economy is flagging (and the income it generates in taxes) as is moves

to more of a nationalised, militarised economy. So, the money lake is

draining down.

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NEWS SOURCES:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/27/russias-rouble-plunges-to-lowest-rate-since-early-weeks-of-ukraine-war

https://www.ft.com/content/6189fdb4-d1ef-4e0b-a7f1-e7f9a7286df5

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/11/27/7486548/

https://timothyash.substack.com/p/the-rouble-is-melting-finally?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/27/russian-central-bank-halts-currency-buying-until-2025-as-ruble-slides-a87147

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TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:

Save Ukraine

https://www.saveukraineua.org/

Superhumans - Hospital for war traumas

https://superhumans.com/en/

UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in

Ukraine

https://unbroken.org.ua/

Come Back Alive

https://savelife.in.ua/en/

Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchen

https://wck.org/relief/activation-chefs-for-ukraine

UNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyy

https://u24.gov.ua/

Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation

https://prytulafoundation.org

NGO “Herojam Slava”

https://heroiamslava.org/

kharpp - Reconstruction project supporting communities in Kharkiv and

Przemysl

https://kharpp.com/

NOR DOG Animal Rescue

https://www.nor-dog.org/home/

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