Money Tree Investing

Silver CRASHED... What Happened & What's Next


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Silver crashed! Today we focus on a historic bout of volatility in precious metals following months of extreme, unhealthy gains. We figure out if the selloff was driven by the announcement of a new Fed chair or severe technical overextension, crowded positioning that triggered profit-taking, shorting, and forced de-risking. We also talked the implications of a potentially growth-leaning but inflation-conscious Fed, ongoing structural risks like debt, deficits, and sticky inflation, and why monetary policy alone can't solve them. We reviewed the January market performance, and noticed strength in energy, materials, commodities, and international equities versus lagging tech and software. Markets are rotating regimes, not ending trends, and investors should focus on risk management, diversification, and long-term planning rather than reacting emotionally to short-term chaos.

We discuss...

  • We unpacked a historic spike in precious-metals volatility, with silver experiencing extreme, record-level swings after months of unsustainably rapid gains.
  • The Fed chair news was described as a "match, not the bonfire," triggering a correction that was already statistically inevitable at extreme standard deviations.
  • Volatility selling, options hedging, and large institutional short positioning likely amplified the downside move in silver.
  • The gold-silver ratio had reached stretched levels, making a snapback or rebalancing between gold and silver unavoidable.
  • Despite the violent correction, the broader precious-metals bull trend was viewed as intact rather than broken.
  • Gold was described as healthier than silver due to steady institutional and central-bank buying.
  • We covered how computers, systematic strategies, and risk managers now dominate market mechanics at volatility extremes.
  • Rate cuts may come sooner than expected, but structural issues like debt, deficits, and sticky inflation remain unresolved.
  • Markets so far reacted modestly outside of commodities, suggesting rotation rather than systemic stress.
  • Energy and commodities were highlighted as key areas to watch in an inflation-sensitive environment.
  • International equities significantly outperformed U.S. markets, reinforcing the case for global diversification.
  • A small bank failure highlighted lingering credit and balance-sheet risks despite limited systemic impact.
  • Midterm election seasonality was discussed as a potential source of higher volatility and uneven returns.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/silver-crashed-787

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